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Thursday, September 6, 2012

UVXY - Different Short Term Scenario

SPX analysis including short term target level 1380 and timing (early next week) remain the same.

However, UVXY may play out according to the following short term scenario instead.  It still should pop quite well early next week during the negative cycle, but from a lower price.    

15min Chart

157 comments:

  1. My average on UVXY is around $5.20. So I probably will unload it near break even.

    UVXY should pop next to $5.15-19 area imo.

    ReplyDelete
  2. First unload over $6, then unload at break even....Every time when you are wrong, there is New Chart that totally forgoes the previous one and the timeline gets pushed forward another week...

    There is a lot of Flip Flop going on...and it's getting beyond ridiculous (just because it's free doesn't mean it should be given a free pass to whatever is posted)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll still do just as well with this scenario as the other. The size of the pop is the same even though it starts lower.

      Adjustments are made when necessary.

      Delete
    2. size of the pop is the same it just starts lower... so if it pops 3 bucks from a dollar thats good ?

      Delete
    3. So now just looking at 5s, I thought we were in these to try make money. That's right, what's the point if it pops 3 dollars from $1 when we are in at 5s. Thought a big negative cycle supposed to hit last month and this month.

      Delete
  3. He will likely delete this post also.

    I will say this again, SC does not understand what he is trading, first indication is he is using a cancer filled ETF chart, if you don't understand the issue with this then stop trading. Second he does not even understand what UVXY is actually tracking like many here don't, if they say they do then why would they not plot it LOL. If one could post charts in this forum then one could help you traders out, but this is not allowed. If you don't understand what your trading then don't trade it and yes if you continue to bump your nose against the wall after doing it 10 times in a row, then you do deserve to lose all your money.

    Lets see how long he keeps this one posted LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  4. SC... when you abandon UVXY people will begin to take you seriously.. (maybe), go back the last couple months and reaqd your posts and be honest with yourself its been horrible. GL

    ReplyDelete
  5. thankyou for the update SC
    I am in with my 1st 1/3 position @ 4.5, VIX futures = 17.38

    will not hold long or will buy more when VIX Sep = 17
    would be nice if we get to 5.2 again. You do seam to get out of your trades without losing on UVXY

    good luck all

    ReplyDelete
  6. Already bottoming around $4.40 so will just wait for $5.30 area now. Will only make a small profit on this trade.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You mean $55.30, correct? : }

      Delete
    2. Or $53.30 -- haha, see this split already has me confused!

      Delete
  7. SPX is currently up 21 points from my Aug 30th low and 42 points if one went short at the peak on Aug 17th and long on the Aug 30. I posted this scenario weeks ago.

    Unknown are you out there? I'm waiting for your charts...

    ReplyDelete
  8. This is week is supposed to be (VERY) NEGATIVE cyclically? Really???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wait and see. Cycle negative into early next week. SPX 1380 targeted.

      Delete
    2. Dude, we've been waiting & NOT seeing for months. Heck, what's a few more days, right?

      Delete
    3. Cycles were negative in August and what did we get - NOTHING

      Cycles were weak this week , what did we get NOTHING

      SP might hit 1380 in 2-3 weeks but UVXY's will still be $5...so what's the point ?

      Delete
  9. It is not a secret now that SC is working on inverse cycles; so not going to waste my time on commenting...

    Although market has gone up substantially with ECB bond buying news...Precious metals are not buying that news..which is big surprise!

    I have entered in HVU at 12.20 for short term...charts are oversold and should provide some bounce by end of the day...

    ReplyDelete
  10. I might add to my HVU at low 12's today...worth a bounce try for next week....Either way the Jobs Report is a mute point now..Might get lucky and have a 1-2 days of volatility.

    ReplyDelete
  11. geulph1 VIX at 17 now (that was quick)

    ReplyDelete
  12. He will likely delete this post also.

    I will say this again, SC does not understand what he is trading, first indication is he is using a cancer filled ETF chart, if you don't understand the issue with this then stop trading. Second he does not even understand what UVXY is actually tracking like many here don't, if they say they do then why would they not plot it LOL. If one could post charts in this forum then one could help you traders out, but this is not allowed. If you don't understand what your trading then don't trade it and yes if you continue to bump your nose against the wall after doing it 10 times in a row, then you do deserve to lose all your money.

    Lets see how long he keeps this one posted LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  13. So SC, you went against ZIG ZAG again. He showed you the game plan months in advance. New highs by mid September. Why don't you just follow his chart? It has been spot on.

    ReplyDelete
  14. SC, do you plan to unload your entire position at 5.30?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this rate, we be luck to see UVXY making $5 lol. Keep praying for it. Otherwise it wont even happen. They just did a QE basically from Euro. As well, the number was well above expectation in US. This is a signal that we are going to trend up for a while, what happen to VIX when that happens?

      Above all this, we get a stock split lol.


      GL

      Delete
  15. what if its drops to 3 ? then what no stops ??

    ReplyDelete
  16. SC, you buying anymore down here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you likes it at 13, 12, 9, 8, 6, 5, 4 seriously you are kidding right.

      Delete
    2. it's just sad.
      "Already bottoming around $4.40 so will just wait for $5.30 area now. Will only make a small profit on this trade."
      last month looking for 20s, last week down to 6s, now 5s.

      Delete
  17. Yikes!!! SC may hit his UVXY target of 28 tomorrow (UVXY closes today at 2.8….1-for-10 reverse share split...UVXY opens tomorrow at 28).

    ReplyDelete
  18. That's why I kept asking if he sees 28 in September. The dude is spot on. It will open in the 40s tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCSeptember 4, 2012 11:46 AM
    "My cycles very negative every day the rest of this week for SPX."

    ReplyDelete
  20. This entire time that everyone has been trying to pick a bottom with UVXY and HVU.....the correct trade would have been buying XIV (in June) instead..

    you would be up 65% by now !

    ReplyDelete
  21. If we close above 1426 on the SPX we have a good chance of tagging the 1449 level in the next couple of days. This will most likely bring UVXY to around the $3.75 level or $37.50 post split...

    ReplyDelete
  22. SC, do you have an exit strategy?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Early next week, $53.20 area is my exit level. I would make a small profit at that level.

      Delete
    2. SPX target early next week is 1380.

      Delete
    3. SPX is at the upper yellow fork resistance now.

      Delete
    4. Oh my... I can't see 1380 at this point SC. Market has made its choice. Hopefully most here have already cut their losses.

      Delete
  23. No higher high in crude today from Aug, bearish sign.

    ReplyDelete
  24. SC, what if UVXY drops further tomorrow will your short term target decrease as well. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  25. JPM 3.6 mil 10 min sell candle....

    ReplyDelete
  26. Whatever happen to "I'm trading for the larger cycle"? LOL!!!

    SC...did Zig Zag just made you look like a fool?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zig Zag does a fine job with his time cycles.

      I've traded my short term cycles in Aug with good success. I won't make much on this current short term trade. Most importantly, yes, I am trading in tune with the large cycle as well.

      Really, when you think about it, today SPX traded 10 points higher than the early April high. So the opportunity for bulls, and bears has been equal during that time frame. The market dropped and has come back up to the same level.

      Delete
    2. But UVXY is making new low from that time to now. hmm...something isnt right.

      Delete
    3. It's lower because of the leverage, decay, and would be expected.

      Delete
  27. SC, is you work postive or negative for SPX tomorrow. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX cycle is negative tomorrow, and especially negative Mon/Tues. I still am targeting 1380 SPX early next week.

      Delete
    2. 50 handle drop in next 3 trading days...so why are you not buying contra etf's instead of messing with uvxy ... market can drop and vix can drop with it you know... play the market and stop playing volatility

      Delete
    3. uvxy down 16% and falling... anyone following please use stops... advice on here is going to crush you

      Delete
    4. down 17%..with proper stops you would out of this position long ago..

      Delete
  28. SC

    Have you looked at your models to see what maybe at play to cause this inverse reaction to your prediction for this week. Live and learn..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, that is why I produced the chart above.

      Delete
  29. SC, do you have any advice to those that took your advice and bought in the 9-12 range?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. at what point would you sell on the downside 3.50, 3.00 ? or would you let entire position go to zero?

      Delete
    2. So you are in at 5.20? Down 20%+ within a few days?

      Delete
  30. SC, do you have a stop in place?

    ReplyDelete
  31. Looks like a new scale is required for the next scenario of forks on the UVXY chart….

    ReplyDelete
  32. I'm holding until early next week.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SC, This is not a disrespect, but I've seen you post that you went 100% in at 12, then overweight at 10, then sell at 7.34. Then buy at $5.01. Apparently I missed your big sells. When did you make them and at what price? Just curious.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I sold in the low $9 way back. The last 3 trades were profitable, and sold in the $5.70's.

      Delete
    2. I actually went back on this blog and looked at what you have posted here.
      I guess you have not posted your trades on this blog though because since June the up moves we have had on uvxy were a few small moves from 8 to 9 between July 5 and July 10 at a time you posted you were not trading short term and were fully loaded.
      A spike from July 20 to July 23 when it went from 6.90 to 9.50 in which you posted on July 20th you had sold everything at 7.34.
      So according to what you have posted here, you got yourself back to even by trading very recently from 5.02 to 5.70?
      Either that or you have been making a lot of trades in this and not posting them here.

      Delete
    3. Let me go through the trades, and get back to you on the weekend.

      Delete
  34. currently holding 66%. will buy remaining 33% when VIX-Sep reaches 16. will put a sell order in for 5.20 up to Sep 11.

    good luck to all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great strategy! are you concerned about the CIT guys call for up into Sept 11?

      Delete
    2. there call is for peak on 10-11th. Yes, VIX-Sep will probably go down below 16 but not much. Only a few days before it reverses.

      In hindsite, should have had more confidance in their call, & bought XIV. Greed, though screwed me up.

      Its hard not to get caught up in SC's enthusiasm. Need to ignore it & manage the risk

      Delete
  35. 3's here we come !!!! wow this was horrible money management SC perhaps you should think of protecting your account

    ReplyDelete
  36. I like your strategy guelph1...I did something similar except I bought a large 50% chunk yesterday...

    50% at Vix 18
    30$ at Vix 17
    20% at Vix 16.30

    Might go overweight if VIX reaches 16....It's reaching oversold levels, should bounce next week

    good luck to all

    ReplyDelete
  37. can not wait to see the next "different short term scenario".... this is great comedy

    ReplyDelete
  38. Let's play a prediction game:
    What is the highest(pre-split) that uvxy will hit by end of 2012. I'll start.

    6.20


    ReplyDelete
  39. Markets should go higher into early October.

    http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/09/early-october-turn-window.html

    ReplyDelete
  40. congrats everyone UVXY up over 800% !!!!! 38+ right now !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  41. in all seriousness this bull market will head to 1450 at least..sending UVXY to low $3's

    ReplyDelete
  42. Well, the NFP numbers were weak, and might force QE3. That would mean rally for at least 3 months.

    ReplyDelete
  43. UVXY….gap and crap….SC's target of 28 yet today???

    ReplyDelete
  44. Relax you guys, leave SC alone...don't jump on a guy when he is down.

    ReplyDelete
  45. 32 SLV calls purchased a few weeks ago are up from 0.20$ to 1.60$.

    The mistake for a lot of folks here was getting into VIX related instruments, folks stick to the markets that are easier to understand and trade!

    I never traded any VIX related vehicles and not planning to, especially after seeing how it wiped out >100,000$ (by my estimates) from readers of this blog.

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  46. wow, HVU if not for the reverse split, it would be trading at 0.9 right now. penny stock lol. total scam product LOL. We barely up in green compare to yesterday. And these product is dropping like a rock compare to HSD lol.

    Hope SC has a stop lost.

    ReplyDelete
  47. InvestBB

    You just exposed you have no clue what your doing either.

    This board is great for laughs, keep it up.

    ReplyDelete
  48. SC, what are your thoughts? are you stopping out today? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  49. There have been many comments for the past three months warning SC and newbies that trading UVXY could do some serious damage to your portfolio…...

    ReplyDelete
  50. Somehow magically I feel SC will come on say and he was stopped out $4.50...even though he repeatedly... said he has no stop...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same way, he magically sold all his position at 9.50. See posts above.

      86330730September 6, 2012 10:11 PM
      I actually went back on this blog and looked at what you have posted here.
      I guess you have not posted your trades on this blog though because since June the up moves we have had on uvxy were a few small moves from 8 to 9 between July 5 and July 10 at a time you posted you were not trading short term and were fully loaded.
      A spike from July 20 to July 23 when it went from 6.90 to 9.50 in which you posted on July 20th you had sold everything at 7.34.
      So according to what you have posted here, you got yourself back to even by trading very recently from 5.02 to 5.70?
      Either that or you have been making a lot of trades in this and not posting them here.

      Delete
  51. This is the 2nd time SC bought and went down 25% + in the next day or two.....

    very telling

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the calls have been bad and negative cycles way off no doubt, many people even get in at much higher price

      Delete
  52. SC, have you changed any of your targets?

    ReplyDelete
  53. he has his order to sell at 28 and he will take no less !!!! cycles are very negative

    ReplyDelete
  54. Guys, just move on. Its certainly a bit much on SC right now, but fact is he has been way off for some time.

    No need to gang up now. Points made.

    ReplyDelete
  55. I don't think anyone is ganging up on him...there are sharing their thoughts...there never should never be any personal attacks...I hope people are allowed to express their different views...Otherwise you might as well turn off the comment function on the site

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes i agree just want to get everyones thoughts. Working together is better than working against each other...

      Delete
  56. GOLD



    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joed, you mentioned that August should be a major top and we go down til November, still maintain this view?

      Delete
    2. Joed, Is that chart showing that Gold is peaking.

      Delete
    3. August cant be a major top, we just hit the major top yesterday, which is September. Think he pushed his forecast later too like SC.

      Delete
    4. My charts have not changed...the smaller cycle is looking for the tops posted at the very end of Aug into the beginning of SEPT inside the longer cycle top into the 3rd week of SEPT! Yes, once this top is in I am looking for price dropping into late NOV..........Best, joed

      Delete
    5. INHO...........

      ANyone trading grains should be on alert at this time.........Best, joed

      Delete
    6. Here are my older charts......

      http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/3739/76225152.png

      http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/8040/52250959.png

      Delete
  57. Does anyone here own any UVXY still?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The question isnt anyone here own any UVXY still. The question should be anyone here have any more money still?

      :)

      Delete
  58. well, i guess it's time to stop out and cut your losses ...no more trading this vehicle ever again. It will probably take me a good few years to recover from just a couple months of trading this cursed vehicle.

    good luck

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking at the current stock market, it so damn manipulated lol.

      Bad news, we get QE to juice it
      Good news, juice just keep going.

      We should all be investing in XIV lol cause we all know it going to infinity at this rate LOL

      Delete
  59. uvxy at 3.50 now... NO STOPS = NO MONEY

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC got his at 5.2 average. almost 40% lost soon

      Delete
  60. Guys,

    Whoever is in loss, you have to keep your head cool, be patient and wait for right time to dump, you bought in emotion and now selling in emotion will not help you....HVU will not go to zero overnight...I would say you should seat on it for month or so...

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HVU will not go to new high over night either.

      TomDemark has a target of 1478...UVXY holder is doom if that happens.

      Delete
  61. Early next week, $53.20 area is my exit level. I would make a small profit at that level.


    SCSeptember 6, 2012 9:23 AM
    SPX target early next week is 1380.

    SCSeptember 6, 2012 9:24 AM
    SPX is at the upper yellow fork resistance now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lucky if it bounce at all. very strong break out on chart...will take a while before we reverse. people still trying to catch up. looking for small dip to join the party.

      Delete
  62. http://wiseguytrading.blogspot.com/
    http://thefinancialtap.com/
    http://smartvolume.wordpress.com/

    Wiseguy uses Automated systems Poly cycles and Salad VTA.

    Good luck to all and learn and watch real traders not this failed resource.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Funny...Joe was wrong , Sc was wrong, but one little humble guy is smiling in the background getting ready to lock his profit from the October 2011 lows.

    ZIG ZAG is da MAN!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. so so true. he is certainly humble, and really a nice person from my limited interactions with him.

      Delete
  64. I wonder if SC will be replying to any of our posts?

    ReplyDelete
  65. It has been a very long time since I commented on here. I have to say 2 thumbs up to Zig Zag also. He painted the picture a year ago, but most of you only wanted to listen to SC.
    I was short at the start of the year, but got stopped out(took a loss). I was concerned because SC was calling for a crash...when he does this the markets always do the opposite. I hope most of the "followers" are starting to see the light. I have made huge gains taking the opposite trade of SC.
    I have been patient with my XIV and it is paying off. Today I am taking profits with some and always use stops. The market can fall a few 100 points and I will still be in green with the rest of my XIV. Most on here get mesmerized because of the charts and his conviction. Any one can draw lines, but the good ones make profits.

    I only came across SC a few years ago because my friend mentioned about him on stockhouse. I read some of his quotes on FAZ in the fall of 2010. Interesting reads. He was all-in on margin of FAZ and down 40%. Many people were asking how he wasn't broke. He was basically calling everybody else stupid for being long the markets and actually making money. I know I am old, but if you are down that much on margin....how are you not broke? Amazingly, he always comes away with profits and his methods always work. Really? I am sure SC will delete this post because he will not like it on his site.

    ReplyDelete
  66. 3.52 AND SINKING FROM 5.20 GET OUT NOW

    ReplyDelete
  67. I'll be looking to sell next week low $50.

    ReplyDelete
  68. So you expecting 40-50% gain for UVXY from these levels in the next 5 trading days ??

    ReplyDelete
  69. Well, there will be a bounce if there is no QE3, and that is certainly possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. no QE3 doesnt mean there is a bounce, it just means market will do nothing like it has been for the last months (so maybe best to say it "May" bounce if there is no QE3)...market will wait for QE3, even a hint of it, it will blast off again...that is the way it is going to be for the rest of this year and beyond. Why fight the trend. Even SC is leaving his position at low 50...

      Delete
  70. when is the Fed meeting? Sept 12th?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, thats when Germany votes on Draghi's proposition. Fed meeting will be day after...

      Delete
  71. UVXY at 3.46 now basically...hard to imagine it will get to low 5s next week with this type of momentum...looking at ZZ chart, we might dip alittle, but just cause we dip doesnt mean UVXY will blast off to the outerspace...then ZZ chart shows a big blast to Sept 18m, like BIG blast off...gl

    ReplyDelete
  72. I bet Ziggy is laugh his a$$ of at SC. One guy is making bank, the other loss everything. LOL!!! Don't go against Ziggy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The guy went fishing most of the time instead of chatting online, you know a guy is good when he doesnt care to look at this stuff 24/7.

      Delete
  73. Sad to see so many losing their shirts with this vehicle. I've been a victim myself.

    Remember, keep it small.

    To be honest, there really is no reason to be trying to catch a bottom with this cancerous vehicle; it is best to position long on the upward swings to ride the wave.

    By upward swings I mean when price action closes above the 10DMA on the daily. But the second most important thing, is getting out when it closes below the 10DMA again.

    Trying to pick a bottom with this vehicle is a FOOLS GAME. You might as well go bet all in with a J/7 at your local casino.

    SC -- I will be COMPLETELY amazed if you see 52.00 next week. But, maybe there will be a natural disaster this weekend, and hoping for disaster is a terrible way to live life.

    The true lesson here was missing the move in XIV. I know I am kicking myself.

    -Bicky

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bicky

      what you in now? XIV?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Invest--

      MISSED THE XIV BOAT OBVIOUSLY :}

      I am in 85% cash, 15% SDS at a price of 13.83 (bought in after hours yesterday).

      I was in UVXY on Wednesday but after it failed to move up from ~4.98 I sold 15 minutes before close (thankfully).

      Look, I think UVXY could pop soon (it almost hit it's lower 50,2 bollinger band on the daily today), but I am just not confident enough to invest big $$$ in UVXY right now.

      I will look to sell SDS on some weakness early next week and will position short later this month -- and will even think about getting back in UVXY after it has time for the 10DMA to come down a bit (couple weeks at this rate).

      -Bicky

      Delete
    3. Bicky I like your strategy please keep us updated. Thanks

      Delete
    4. Bicky

      Just saw the 10DMA on UVXY...shit that thing is way way below it...SC seeing this and still all in?

      hmm....

      Delete
    5. wondering when UVXY will hit 2400 again lol.

      Delete
  74. SPX will hit 1449 at that time i will be selling it with both hands!!!

    ReplyDelete
  75. SCSeptember 5, 2012 7:43 PM

    "No, I really like this short term setup for UVXY, and I'm holding through this negative cycle for SPX. The cycle just started, and it is about to intensify into early next week.

    I'm sure I'll do well on this trade.

    SCSeptember 6, 2012 6:52 AM

    Already bottoming around $4.40 so will just wait for $5.30 area now. Will only make a small profit on this trade.

    well, two days later down more than 30%, great setup for sure, but it's for XIV

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ...forget UVXY...I still cannot see negative cycle happened this entire week. In fact, I feel we are in either a positive cycle or an inverted negative cycle...Dont know why SC doesnt just flip his work, instead of pushing his work forward when it been pretty clear that it either a positive or inverted cycle this entire week....weird...

      Delete
    2. It's called hubris. I lost a lot of money on UVXY too but feel fortunate that I sold for a loss in the low-mid 5's. Look back to May 2012 and you'll see a 150 point drop in the S&P but that barely resulted in a double for UVXY. I do think UVXY can go up 10X but that will occur under extremely rare circumstances.

      Delete
  76. Do not watch my forecast posting this weekend because it's very bullish: check the link under my handler and you will find out why, lol.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We are very much in synch DB. Great work.

      Delete
    2. who is your handler? where can i find this link? thanks

      Delete
    3. doctorboom.blogspot.com

      Pleasant people only should visit.

      Delete
    4. Thanks Platy. May God bless our trades, mine before yours of course.

      Delete
    5. LOL at least as long as mine get blessed too.

      Delete
  77. SC, have you figured out what went wrong and whether next week will bring higher level for us to exit UVXY? thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I have reviewed it in detail. After 3 nice wins in a row 50-70 cents presplit on the short term trades, this trade did go way offside on me. However, I realize next week is likely to bring a reasonable exit for this current trade. I may take a loss of 25 cents on this trade presplit.

      It took me a little time to adjust my charts for the split so I will have the chart up this weekend.

      Delete
    2. Thanks SC, i'm in this as well and need an exit strategy so keep me posted.

      As for the negative cycle on the SPX, it seems that many analysts are now in a nuetral position due to last weeks action. I think we may get a small correction in October then up into the elections then down after Novemeber..imo

      Delete
  78. A bounce to around the 3.9 - 4 level is probably a fair level I would imagine.....but I wouldn't expect more than this as clearly the mkt is telling us its going higher!

    ReplyDelete
  79. SC, whats the plan for this week? if we head up tomorrow do you think its time we stopped out. thanks

    ReplyDelete
  80. DOW CYCLE

    http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/6039/dowlonger.jpg

    ReplyDelete