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Thursday, September 13, 2012

$SPX - Update

SPX did find resistance at the yellow fork, and then found support at the turquoise fork.  Now, it is hovering, and hasn't given much direction as far as the next short term move.

However, in the bigger picture, the view is that SPX is trading near a major top.  Further details as far as bigger picture views will be coming soon.   

30min Chart

62 comments:

  1. anyone willing to place on any bets on QE3 this afternoon ?

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  2. UVXY almost below $32......where the the dust settle this afternoon ?

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  3. Sooooo. what are we doing with those UVXY buying selling holding ....

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  4. SC,
    Any thoughts on UVXY based on this annoucnement?

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    1. I'm going to give it some time here. Once I am satisfied that it is low enough, I am going to be buying.

      This rally won't last for too long imo. So I will give it a little time, and once it looks like it is about to fizzle, then will short it.

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    2. Tks SC.

      1. The cycles seem to be missing these moves for UVXY on a regular basis in terms of the big drops. Is there something you can do to fine tune the cycles for UVXY?

      2. How low do you expect UVXY to get before you buy and it bounces back up?

      3. Do you have yet another updated price/time chart for UVXY that we can consider as a data point.

      4. Do you still think the UVXY gap will be filled soon?

      Tks in advance.

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    3. Well I've been saying for days it can dip, and that is the case. Yes, after it bottoms soon, it can bounce right back up to test that gap area.

      Yes, I have bigger picture charts coming for UVXY, and yes my outlook remains the same longer term.

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  5. SC gave it the death kiss by saying "there is not much downside left"

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  6. I just bought back my other 50%. VIX Sep below 15

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  7. I have noticed in the past that in a situation like this for UVXY, the first decent bounce is usually false and often it makes a lower low afterwards. So I may wait until after the first decent bounce to enter on a lower low.

    Let see how it shapes up here.

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  8. Listen, October is upon us and QE to inifinity is here.....unless you want to go Bankrupt, stay away from UVXY until after the elections at least.

    VIX is going to 10.

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  9. One more day for that magical $40 GAP area to be reached.....BUT wait a minute..there is always next week, and the week after that...

    I feel really sorry, for the those people who bought UVXY at $12 and then $9 and then again at $5..SC your intentions might be right...BUT honestly, you have been wrong 99% of the time...with no accountability ...and no track record, your comments are becoming comical...

    This blog used to be a good place to at least ideas and see where the heard is going...but even that is dying down...

    SC you have ZERO credibility ....and YES I do make my own trades, but I have a problem with putting comments out there to lead people astray....

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  10. We ALL have to give it up to Zig Zag. He's the man.

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  11. joed was calling for a decline into November as well. Perhaps he was early with his call.

    So there are others that missed this recent market runup as well.

    Yes, congrats to Zig for a good call.

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    1. Update to my prior chart post..........I am flat now all longs and flat all IRA type long term accounts! Best to all, joed

      http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/8128/dows.jpg

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    2. hi Joe,
      What does that mean you are 'flat' all longs?
      ie. you have no long positions but also no short positions?

      tks in advance...

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    3. testy99

      I was long into today and so was my auto system...I am now flat all positions and as I said I have gotten longer term trading accounts flat as of the close! If I take any long position, it will be from a very short term perspective! The next large swing will be on the downside into Nov! imho Best and good trading, joed

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    4. tks for the clarification and congratulations on your trades...

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    5. testy99

      No problem.....sometimes this type of communication gets lost! Good trading! joed

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  12. Did SC expected a brutal September?

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    1. I presume this is a rhetorical question. We all know he expected a negative September for markets.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. The question is will be get a strong negative October market like Zig expects. I hope so.

      Of course, that does not mean UVXY will react as much as we would like if it does occur based on past experience.

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  13. SC did you add to your UVXY position.... what is your short term prediction for market massive sell off coming soon !!!

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  14. SC thinks this level is an excellent buy. lol!

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    1. why not, remember a big crash is coming, just be patient with UVXY, no big downside left and it's going to the moon soon.

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  15. Maybe he will just stick another FORK into it !

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  16. UVXY just announced a 1-10 split again... every 2 weeks they will split

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  17. every level is a good buy since uvxy is going to the moon!

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  18. SILVER

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  19. 52 to 31... hmmmmm maybe next time you will put your stops in and avoid such horrific losses. USE STOPS PEOPLE !!!!!

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    Replies
    1. remember a big crash is coming, just be patient with UVXY, no big downside left and it's going to the moon soon.

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  20. The obvious negative spot this week was the 10th and 11th as I said earlier in the week which was why I sold UVXY at $39.30 on Tues the 11th. I've been saying since Aug that mid-Sept is the most negative spot for the markets in Sept, and that is hitting next week.

    I'm going to be buying UVXY today likely, because of that negative short term cycle which is due. Next week I will plan to take profits on this UVXY trade in the $43min to $47 area.

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  21. Just bought 25% UVXY at $29.55.

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    Replies
    1. So you're at 50% UVXY now, right? you said you sold half on Tues..

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    2. Yes, I'll be adding more.

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  22. Well, UVXY is becoming a higher probability trade, but I would still wait it out as if your timing is even slightly off, watch out, you are staring at another 30% loss in no time.

    Also, contract expires on the 18th, something to be aware of.

    Personally, my HVU buy will be when I see the VIX at 10

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  23. Folks, this is about all the downside uvxy will see...and it's been a lot. If you're lucky enough to be in cash, this is the sweet spot. SPX has 10pt. max upside.

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    Replies
    1. that 10 pts up could lead to a 30% decline in UVXY?

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  24. Nice to hear some positive comments on this page too....I followed SC & bought some more at 28.75 today bringing my average down to 36.10 now.

    I don't think for one minute they will bounce back to 36...I will cut my position at 33-35 I think & never look at this stack of rubbish again.

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  25. joed,
    whats your take on precious metals, do you think that they will also pullback with the gen stock market. thanks

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    1. phantom

      Not really ......in my work this is a different cycle.........and as I have stated in the past it would be choppy up until lift off! Although this is a cycle top in the metals for me.....it will not be as long or deep a retrace as what the stock market will be! I look at all markets individually in my cycle work no matter what! Good trading, joed

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  26. Question for anyone...VIX up 4.3% but UVXY only up 2%. I thought this is a 3x ETF, could someone explain this?

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    Replies
    1. UVXY does not track the VIX directly but rather the VIX futures. Also it is 2x.

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    2. Thank u....they are finding it extremely difficult to bounce at any level, very annoying!

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  27. hi SC
    are you in 100% yet?
    when do you expect next positive cycle?
    will you hold untill your target of 43?

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    Replies
    1. Building a position for a move to $43. There may be another chance to pick up some $27-28 area next week, then breakout from there.

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  28. nice move today
    have a great weekend

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  29. I still have more to add. I think there is some support for SPX at 1455 that could hold for a couple of days next week. UVXY might find resistance at $33, dip, then breakout midweek.

    Midweek is when the action should happen imo. That is when the markets should top out and plunge hard.

    Have a nice weekend also.

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    1. will you be selling some on Mon morning than @ 33 & buy back later @ 30?

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    2. We'll see how it goes early next week. That could work. Most importantly I am building a position for $43 to $47.

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  30. Hi SC...what do you think of Zig Zag calls so far in September?

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  31. Hey SC

    This is the Best damn trading indicator on the planet

    Follow it for 2 weeks FREE

    www.markethighsandlows.wordpress.com

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    1. Not sure about that...i see a MS around Sept 10th, then the Bernanke blew you out of the water. ie. I did not see a MB before the Bernanke announcement.

      You have CIT for Sept 13 but no MS associated with it. Thus, what good is that?

      Am i reading it right or did i miss something in your charts?

      Tks in advance.

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  32. SC, have you come up with some realistic targets for the big picture yet? thanks

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  33. If patience is the key, as the first post stated...stop reading this blog)

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  34. I feel really sorry, for the those people who bought UVXY at $12 and then $9 and then again at $5..SC your intentions might be right...BUT honestly, you have been wrong 99% of the time...with no accountability ...and no track record, your comments are becoming comical. This blog used to be a good place to at least ideas and see where the heard is going...but even that is dying down...every level is a good buy since UVXY is going to the moon. Market Research
    Well, UVXY is becoming a higher probability trade, but I would still wait it out as if your timing is even slightly off, watch out, you are staring at another 30% loss in no time.

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