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Saturday, June 16, 2012

$SPX - Slow Week Ahead

There is such overwhelming talk of numerous "important" geopolitical events in the coming week that it is sure to be slow and quiet instead.  The cycles and charts remain bullish, and a slow grind up looks most likely for the week. 

Early in the week there will probably be a few whiffs of action with small rallies and dips, and then everything will just turn calm.

Of course, a calm market is a VIX killer...

15min Chart

81 comments:

  1. man you pitchforking that thing to death..looks like a rising wedge which 1350's topping.I been reading about Hurst stuff..do you value those cycles or too big scale for daily charts???thanks

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  2. It should be a grind higher likely with some resistance starting soon.

    The Hurst cycle method is interesting, and I agree with many of the principles though it's not one of my main methods. I use a combination of different approaches, and certainly there are many ways to come up with a right answer.

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  3. Your June 11th update suggested the 1375 top before the end of this coming week. Are you expecting this rally to extend out into the week of June 25th-29th?

    Is it more a matter of price than time?

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    Replies
    1. This week still looks prime for a top. I think it'll be a relatively quiet week as we work higher into a flat topping process. The target may even have to be trimmed back a little. We'll see and can review later in the week.

      The last week of June still looks quite bearish, and also the middle part of July looks weak in my cycle analysis.

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    2. Your target for uvxy has been in the 11.70 neighborhood. If you see that this week are you in?

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    3. Yes, that is the plan. $10-11 bottom, and run hard from there into Late June, early July.

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  4. SC, your analysis about precious metals remains the same ?
    Really bullish for this week ?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, still bullish for Gold, and eyeing that $1700 level for now. This week it can continue up, and the short term does look promising for the metals in June.

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  5. SC,

    Oil has me a little worried here. If the dollar finds a cycle low here I am worried that oil can be punished here. What are your thoughts on oil, the dollar and commodities in general here?

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    Replies
    1. Oil and commodities should generally grind higher for this week. Next week though oil should fall with the markets.

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    2. SC,

      Doesn't appear to want to participate today. Do you still think this will hold true this week?

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  6. Thanks SC for your comments on precious metals.
    About silver, you said that your target is $32. Is it for this week ?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. While I am expecting SPX to have a quiet week and grind higher, most interesting for Gold and Silver will be when SPX rolls over and the market selloff I am expecting in late June is underway. I suspect the metals surge on safe haven demand.

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  7. SPX should test the futures high of last night in the next few days.

    Now that one non-event is out of the way, the media can start to hyperventilate about the next non-events this week lol!

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  8. VIX future roll over today morning, now trading at almost 24...man wish this was real jump...21.50 to 24...wow...but it is actually 30 cents jump...contago is going to kill HVU...or UVXY type etfs..

    Cheers

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  9. SS76,

    Are you still holding your HVU?

    Thanks

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  10. I sold it this morning at $4.15 and switched to HVI at $8. Figuring switching to HVU on Wednesday when Bernake speaks.

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  11. SC, I now see why you target end of June for the swoon...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/complete-european-sovereign-event-and-piigs-bond-issuance-calendar-june-and-july?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

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  12. Booked profit on my XIV at $10.25. I think it'll trade back into the $9's next few days before moving hihger into the $11's.

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    Replies
    1. May just sit in cash for a bit here.

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  13. I think it might be too soon SC. Profit is good though, well done and congrats to you on this blog.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you. I still think it is heading higher this week, but short term may be a little top heavy here.

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  14. The next few days may be a little choppy for SPX, but I still think there is some upside, and overall this is likely to be a calm, and relatively quiet week.

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  15. XIV may top out short term around $10.45. This is one of my target areas. Maybe dip to $9.50, and up into the $11's.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      This is all within this week?

      Thanks!

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    2. Hi SC

      Wondering then your take on UVXY changes this week?

      like what price would it be when XIV hit around 9.5 ish?

      understand your finaly target for UVXY is around 10-11 ish.


      Thanks!

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    3. UVXY probably is nearing a short term bottom, and may manage a small pop to $15's. Have to be fairly careful since soon it'll likely plummet to $10's.

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  16. Thanks SC,
    Another question : in your opinion, can gold go down bellow $1550 before pushing higher ?

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    Replies
    1. Gold has been choppy lately, but I doubt it. Let me look closer at the smaller movements.

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  17. what happened to your call for dip to 1265?

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  18. what happened to your 17 dollar silver by march or may...

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  19. 1265? I've been calling for a rally to 1370 or so, then a fall to 1245. So far very pleased with how it is working out.

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  20. SCJune 11, 2012 6:50 PM
    The 1340's zone was tested overnight in the futures. Now that we have seen the deep retrace as well, I think we are going straight to the 1372 target!

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  21. SCJune 12, 2012 8:03 AM
    "The way my charts and cycles are setup, I will hold my longs until SPX is up in the 1370-80's. If we don't rally much this week, I would have no problem holding right through this Greek election/Fed meeting.

    I think it is clear that the market will surge soon, this week and/or next week. As far as interpreting the news, all I can say is that there will be some news that is taken very positively soon, but at the end of June the news/mood will be extremely negative. Greece and the Fed are looking like positive events, but something will unravel end of June...."

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  22. SCJune 14, 2012 6:22 AM
    "The wall of worry has been re-established even though SPX is 50 points above the 1266 June 4th low. The market will do what it always does in these situations.

    It will climb the wall of worry. We're consolidating for the push higher."

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  23. SCJune 14, 2012 9:08 AM
    "There is excessive fear in the market. There is also a nice H&S on the VIX that has formed over the last month. VIX is about to fold like a house of cards imo."

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  24. SC,

    Is S & P now heading for 1370 from here, looks like 1340 became support...or you think there will be sell off?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I think we'll see a small dip soon - early this week. Then a top later in the week. The collapse in the VIX is a good confirmation of my theory that this is going to be a quiet week for the markets. A slow grind and relatively flat top is my theory for SPX.

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  25. You said you sold XIV, then did you buy UVXY? What is your target price for UVXY and when it will be? Wednesday? In advance, thank you.

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    Replies
    1. No, just in cash for now. I may consider UVXY for a small pop to $15 or so during the next couple of days, but I do want to be careful.

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  26. Hi SC

    Wondering would you be getting back into XIV then around 9.5$ since your near term can get to 11$.

    Thanks!

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  27. Hi SC

    wondering if may know what the target for HVU and HVI would be then if XIV is at 9.5 and UVXY at 15?


    Thanks!

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  28. uvxy cheaper and cheaper....SC are u buying some AH?

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    Replies
    1. I did buy a small starter position at $12.38.

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  29. SC<

    What do you mean by starter position? are you going to hold onto this buy until July?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I think UVXY is heading for $10's maybe even $9's. I did buy a little to play a potential bounce to $15's. I could hold if it goes lower, and add to my position or sell on a bounce.

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    2. I was willing to buy a little UVXY at this level since I suspect a short term bounce could materialize, but I don't plan to be heavily accumulating until the $10's.

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  30. Thank you SC! Man, did you call that $10.45 target or WHAT?! Nice. Sold @ $10.37. Will get back in XIV on a dip to around $9.50. Thanks again.

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  31. I was trying to find out the exact timing of the Fed announcement on Wednesday (12:30 pm NY time) and came across this interesting little tidbit from the New York Fed website (the bold and italics is mine):
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr512.html

    “Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began announcing its monetary policy decisions in 1994, U.S. stocks have experienced large excess returns in the twenty-four hours preceding these announcements. These abnormal returns account for more than 80 percent of the U.S. equity premium over the past seventeen years. Other major international equity indexes have experienced similar abnormal returns before FOMC announcements. However, no such return pattern is detectable on U.S. fixed income assets or the exchange value of the dollar. We discuss a few possible explanations for the pre-FOMC announcement drift for equities, none of which appears to be fully consistent with the empirical evidence.”

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  32. Hi SC
    If we see a dip before last move up, what support level do you think we will come down to in the dip?

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    Replies
    1. Much of my cycle work suggests a dip, and low tomorrow June 20th. I think we could see a dip to 1326-30. That should still be followed by a higher high.

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    2. I think later today/early tomorrow would be a great time to buy HVU. Will assess later, but more likely wait until tomorrow to buy it. Risk/Reward not really there with the FED statements not due until tomorrow afternoon.

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  33. I still think SPX dips into tomorrow most likely. My best time window for a top is Fri/Mon. After that, the black swan is going to set sail imo...

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  34. Hi SC

    wondering what may your top now be for friday/monday according to the current price now in SPX?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'll stick with my same 1372 target for now. It could fall short or overshoot slightly too. Difficult to be exact.

      More importantly, since we are getting close, remember the next target is 1245 SPX late June or early July.

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  35. SPX is hovering at the top blue fork.

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  36. Resistance....not sure now if this will break through and wondering if we have seen the highs for the day.....till the FED meeting.

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  37. Hi SC

    on your updates previously : "UVXY - VIX Wild Ride Ahead!"
    Would this still be a possbility still base on that update:
    You have today as the low for UVXY and it around 11.7. Curious to know does that still stand, and we just go higher into end of the week and then bounce big next week?


    Reason asking is now you thinking we go higher end of this week with a higher high so that would invalidate that possbility in that update.



    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. The UVXY chart worked well and showed a low at the price today. I do think it can bounce here short term, but still does look a little early in time and price.

      Once it bottoms then yes, the big bounce for UVXY is still valid.

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  38. you are looking for 1374 -> 1254 next week?

    .....

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    Replies
    1. The top should come in not much higher now. The next major low I am targeting is 1245 SPX. Around June 29th is the most negative I have seen in my cycle analysis this year. I have found that extremes using this method are reliable.

      1245 may be possible by the 29th of June although it could take longer, and may not see the low until early July. A serious plunge late June looks very likely according to many different cycles.

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    2. Hi SC

      a plunge to 1245, you dont see UVXY heading higher than 28$? like closer to the 50$ mark?



      Thanks!

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    3. No, $28.50 is my estimate, difficult to be exact, but doubt much more.

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  39. Looks like S & P is stuck at 1360...but actual resistance was in 1355 area so I still believe that S & P may see 1370 before tomorrow morning....

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  40. Well, sold my HVI and positioned in HVU. The strength of HVU despite the SPX Rally suggests to me that bigger players don't believe in this rally and it is set to fall. Also, the $NYMO is very overbought.

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  41. Got to hand it to SC. He killed it on this call. Good JOB SC!

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    Replies
    1. GOod of you to acknowledge this. You have been very critical of him in the past but you are right, he has nailed this lately.

      I've been over at Danerics blog, but the level of discussion with the swearing and TBONE lingo that makes no sense really feels mickey mouse to me. Some really knowledgable posters though.

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  42. sold HVU at $3.36 and bought HVI at $8.66

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  43. SC,

    I am thinking that next HVU rally will be mother of all rally...

    Did you buy in? UVXY?

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    Replies
    1. I have some. Good chance of a dip tomorrow. I still want to see things play out some more generally.

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    2. Hope you right SC that we dip tomorrow...will sell some HVU and then buy back when it cheaper ^_^b

      Thanks!

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  44. wow, NYMO at 83.1, dang,
    last year first time we saw this is like last year before the big drop in July last year...could get ugly fast...like ~250 drop from SPX...
    Another time we saw this was from Sept last year...not as dramatic as the July one, but like ~150 points drop from SPX...
    Another time is from Nov last year...about the same as the Sept one, a drop of ~130 points from SPX.

    Not saying we will have the same affect...but SC's target of ~100 point drop isnt out of question.

    good luck all.

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    Replies
    1. two more days L*rd, that's all I ask.

      http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/6140/crumpets.png

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  45. GREAT times we live in...any AAPL'rs?? got a gann target of $545 by July 3..also if /when we breakdown out of rising wedge...$542 target...and Hurst 40wk cycle low from Oct'll comes back around week after independence week.Gonna try to make AAPL pie startn tomorrow.

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  46. SC, do you think gold will rise today ?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Not sure about Gold today. I'm going to review that some more.

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  47. SC, how much of a dip you expect in the S&P today?
    Thx.

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  48. New chart is up. There is potential for a decent short term dip.

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