Next week, the cycle analysis is extremely negative centered around June 29th. A continuation of the drop next week is anticipated.
30min chart
The bottom is likely in place for UVXY. It should see a minor dip today at some point, but it may not dip as well on Monday as SPX bounces. Therefore, a minor low could be in place today with a higher low on Monday.
Today and Monday may be described as a choppy or sideways zone.
This is important. Once it starts moving higher early next week, from the patterns, there will be HARDLY ANY DIPS on the way up!
15min Chart
Sold XIV at $10.06 - loss of 7 cents. Not worth the risk even if it goes a touch higher.
ReplyDeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeletedo you change your mind? there is no 1370 any more?
I was expecting a dip Wed/Thurs but it was so deep that I do think we already topped. Just too much damage. No 1370 is out, and just a lower high on Monday.
Deletethanks
Deletewill oil drop with sp during next week? oil has been tightly correlated with stocked since early May and only dropped harder. The size of its drop surprised me. I thought commodity complex will bottom out in October/November this early and did not expect oil dropped this hard this early. Sc, your opinion?
ReplyDeleteOil has been leading lately. It gave a good signal on Wed as an early warning for SPX. Oil dropped harder on Wed than it did yesterday.
DeleteI suspect there is some downside for oil but not that much relative to SPX.
Bought 50% UVXY at $12.50. This is probably a little early, but today may be better for UVXY than Monday. I want to be all in today.
ReplyDeleteUVXY still may pop to $14ish today. Dip Monday for UVXY but only may be a higher low from today.
what do you see as the top for the SPX, and thus the bottom for UVXY/HVU?
ReplyDeleteDoubt there is much downside for UVXY at all $12ish... UVXY should put in a low this mornign with a pop and higher low Monday.
ReplyDeleteWhereas I prefer the top for SPX to be on Monday.
SC, what do you see VIX topping out next week?
ReplyDeletethx.
Hi SC,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you expect for Gold and Silver?
Is there any possibility bounce up from these levels?
When can we see your detailed gold & silver analysis. I think many people waits your PM analysis for weeks maybe more than month.
I know you are too busy but at least you can share support and resistance points and line in the sand levels for gold.
Thank you,
RB
The 28 top for VIX itself on June 4th may only see a slight higher high in July.
ReplyDeleteSorry about the Gold analysis. I'm watching it closely I just haven't been that interested in playing this sideways Gold chop lately. There are bigger and cleaner moves that are coming for Gold. That is what I will focus on.
ReplyDeleteI believe Gold will rise with SPX falling next week. The safe haven trade is about to kick into gear. So I do not see much downside for Gold and a good run into July.
ReplyDeleteSC, Thank you so much for the comment.
DeletePlease write it up your interpretation when you see any unusual action on gold & silver.
Appreciated, tnx.
RB
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteYou dont see UVXY head below 12$ again?
Thanks!
SPX could go up a few more points up but little upside. UVXY has very little downside imo. I will max my position size very soon.
DeleteHi SC is see your target for around early July is around the 1270 area. Do you see a slight bounce from that area followed by a much deeper drop into July. I was looking at a drop to 1240-1250 before any descent type of rally.
ReplyDeleteCan you please put up a longer time frame chart on the S&P say into around years end.
Thanks SC
First target for SPX is 1270ish between June 29th and early July, then yes, small bounce with a 1245 mid July bottom.
DeleteI do have targets for the rest of the year also. Will do.
Sharing your targets for the rest of the year for key markets (SPX, Metals, etc..) would be greatly appreciated. We understand that the targets could change as short term info becomes available. Thank you.
DeleteSILVER
ReplyDeletehttp://img207.imageshack.us/img207/3707/silverdaily.jpg
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteAre you loading more UVXY here? or waiting it to crack 12?
Thanks!
I'm going to wait. Still may get it lower, and the markets should be ok until Monday anyway.
DeleteIf you expect SPX 1370 then why did you buy UVXY today? It would down more if SPX went up to 1370, right?
ReplyDeleteThe market was so weak yesterday that I just don't think SPX can make it back up there. A lower high at 1340ish may be all the can occur now. There are positive cycles going into Monday, but then things turn negative.
DeleteSo I decided to start building a position in UVXY.
It still may be early for UVXY since I do see the markets bouncing into Monday. If it comes down further I will add. There probably is no rush until Monday.
ReplyDeleteI have been following you for only a few weeks but your system seems to be pretty good during these volatile times (not perfect but generally the right direction more than the wrong direction). Is there a time frame in the future when you are planning to offer a subscription service with additional info/details, history of your trades etc...?
DeleteThanks.
testy99,
Deletebudy you have any problem with such a detail information SC provides without any return? If you have money and don't know where to spend, let us know...I think Cyclical market analysis blog members can use some....
Don't try to act smart here...by asking subscription services...you know what I have one to recommend...go to Warren buffet subscription...
Well I can tell you that most of my work is not shown on this site. I try to keep it simple with the charts and provide a basic outlook, but really there is much more to it than what I am showing. In the future, I may consider a more detailed explanation of the reasoning, and data showing the cycle analysis, patterns etc.
DeleteStockboom,
DeleteIf we're able to make money with SC's efforts, it is only reasonable that he should benefit in some way as well.
SC,
Thanks for the reply. I thought there is a lot more to it than we see. I do believe that some of us would be willing to pay a reasonable subscription fee to better understand and learn your system if you decide to offer such a service in the future. I would hope you would still keep the watered down free service that currently exists as well.
Good luck to everyone....
Agree with what you said..and if it comes to learning I am all for it...
DeleteBut same time SC should continue with his current work for benefit of others.
Cheers
what happened to Silver at 17 dollars is it coming this week or next, or week after... i figure with a major drop is the dow and SPX we should see capitulation in silver, no?
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteI am all in HVU, bought back 5k which I sold yesterday at 3.69 average...
I know you are expecting this to go little down here but can't wait, I missed last rally and don't want to miss this one...this rally on VIX has potential to go upto 48 in short period...
Whatever you are right or not, showing your trading price need lots of courage. It's too risky for you, I know.
ReplyDeleteI admire and appreciate your courage. Thank you.
Why the F this happens to me? my original buy order was 3.30 and I waited waited and waited...and finally lose my cool and bought at 3.36...as soon as I bought it is going down...freaking me out...
ReplyDeleteAnyone has answer? WHY THE big F happens? I heard this from so many other traders as well...
As you know, traders can see the order book at all times and are very good at getting people to do their bidding so to speak. :)
DeleteThe exception tends to be during the 1st and last 30 minutes of the trading day when the big boys have to square their positions which leaves them no time to mess with you.
In your particular case, you may want to consider in the future keeping your 3.30 bid until the last 30 minutes of trading and then determine if you want to change your bid at that time.
For example, today based on SC's charts and my comfort level, I had a plan in mind. Then I waited for the 1st 30 minutes of the trading day to see what the big boys were doing since I had flexibility in my plan. Then i placed a buy order which has been unfilled for UVXY all day so far. If it's still not filled until 3:30pm et today, then i will decide if I want to change my bid (to get into the trade) or wait until Monday to try again. Every situation is unique but I tend to find that this method tends to minimize the floor traders messing with me. :)
I hope this helps.
only thing I know is that DOW can drop another 100 points today and I am confident that it will....
ReplyDeleteAfter yesterday big fall, no one will carry long position into weekend....
It happens to me too, and I can't explain it. Its as if they know and are trying to shake you out. They make more money this way....
ReplyDeleteThis is a tricky spot. I suspect this will be very difficult to get the perfect entry for UVXY. Even a retest of the $10's is not out of the question at this point. It may or may not happen.
ReplyDeleteI'm just going to scale into it and not worry about short term gyrations. I have confidence in my $28 target, and at that point it will not matter much if my avg is $10 or $12 or whatever. Of course, I'd like to get in as close to a bottom as possible but it's not that important. I will not miss this move. The larger cycles are coming into play next week.
Great point...it's more important to get most of the move(about 80% or more) than to miss out on the entire move trying to get the absolute bottom or top.
DeleteAgree, end of the day you will get 70 to 80% of move bcoz either you bought in early or you sell early....
DeleteHave a feeling this market is going Red in the next 30 minutes....
ReplyDeleteIts acutally doing the opposite now and ramping up on low volume. Its possible bigger players will dump near the end of day today with higher volume.
DeleteSS76,
ReplyDeleteAre you still holding HVI? any plan to sell?
Thanks
The VIX and VIX futures can act crazy right before plunges in the market. Irrational whipsaws can and do occur.
ReplyDeleteStockboom, I've sold HVI, bought HVU at $3.53. Feeling queezy about it though.
ReplyDeleteI bought in at $3.49! by the looks of it, we may see the lows again before the turnaround. It's tough to time this sucker!
Deletein HVU now...fail resistance break up of 1335...
ReplyDeleteVIX gave away all the gain from yesterday with DOW recovered not even half from yesterday's fall!
ReplyDeleteSomething is not right....
And we are back to were we started. If HVU closes below $3.00 for a few days, we may see a reverse split soon
ReplyDeletedouble bottom HVU?
ReplyDeleteI'm definitely waiting until Monday to add. The SPX cycle is positive into Monday and if this slow grind continues then UVXY could still have some downside. Need to let this play out some more.
ReplyDeleteIs it that Horizon wants to do reverse split on HVU? becoz with price at 3, you can't use your margin
ReplyDeleteYes, it's not marginable under $3.00. They would have to split, similar to other products such as HNU.
Delete2.85 is here now....
ReplyDeleteVIX is in free fall now...no saving here...brutal...reverse split is here....
ReplyDeleteLooks like $9's are coming. Uggg.
ReplyDeletewow, what a beating I'm taking on HVU. I can only pray it sees $3.50 again.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteWhat will happen if S & P goes to 1370 from here? holyshit...that would take UVXY into 6's
$9ish.
DeleteGee, that 1372 SPX may hit after all.
ReplyDeleteEven if it bottoms in the $9's, believe it or not, my $28 target for UVXY does not change.
ReplyDeleteSelling my shorts, this aint working, we heading to 1370 on Monday looks like...HVU/UVXY seems like it could go much much lower....
ReplyDeleteSC.
ReplyDeleteYou notice how VIX gave up all the gain with half recovery of S & P...on that logic if S & P reaches to 1370 UVXY will be much lower then 9...I still think that this is sucker rally..or I want to believe...LOL...
VIX and the VIX futures lead though so they slow down when SPX finishes. $9 looks about right to me if SPX hits 1370. This is a sucker rally according to my work.
DeleteDOW is falling at close here...
ReplyDeletelot of resource is pointing to a bounce on monday...
ReplyDeletecheck out this free blog...http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/119/
hard to see we wont bounce higher...including SC analysis as well...
gl
well who would have thought of this strong rebound after yesterday's close? so you never know!
Delete1335 is strong support/resistance, we broke it and end the day above it...so now bull is back in business until we break below that again...
ReplyDeleteHVU can go to $2.5...UVXY can go to $9 (SC prediction)
ReplyDeleteSC, still holding uvxy?
ReplyDeletethat selling at the very end could only be daytrade exiting, nothing special...
ReplyDeleteJust look at the after hour VIX futures! it is already up 60 cents!
ReplyDeleteRelax everyone. If SC is only half right, UVXY will still be higher than where it is now within the next week or 2. Enjoy the ride and don't worry about getting in at the exact bottom.
ReplyDeleteWTF...anybody checking VIX right now? it is already close to 22!
ReplyDeleteWhat are you talking about ?
Deletehttp://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-vix-futures-advanced-chart
DeleteVIX futures took off after hours......perhaps some saving grace? Clawed back 8%
ReplyDeleteWhere do you go to see VIX futures quotes? Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteI am holding my 50% position in UVXY. Even if it drops more on Monday I'm holding. I suspect further down on Monday. On Monday I will buy the rest. Once I buy everything, then I will put them for sale at $28, and wait for the fill.
ReplyDeleteI've seen this before. I call it the tsunami effect. First the water goes out, and then more importantly the big wave comes in. The VIX futures go down, and then they surge back up much stronger.
Hi,
DeleteAt what point do you determine if you'll take profits at less than or more than $28 depending on what the market is doing?
I really should have known this effect would occur. My first reaction was right yesterday with XIV, then talked myself out of it.
DeleteCould have had a better entry, but actually the extremes in the VIX futures are confirming my plan than an big move is coming for the market, and it will be down, and down hard.
Hi SC
Deletewould this down hard and down move break pass UVXY 28 target...like upward of 30 to 50ish?
Thanks!
$28 is my minimum target. $30's are possible in the extreme case.
ReplyDeleteOnce I put in the order to sell at $28, I leave it alone. So many ways to miss these moves, I am going to stick to the plan.
SC!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the analysis! I just put my entire life savings into UVXY at $12.50 and I am hoping for the double!
Just Kidding... I got burned on this product earlier in the year and I am extremely cautious. However, I love your analysis and especially appreciate you sharing your thoughts/wisdom.
I picked up 1/3 at $12.50/$11.50/$11.20 and hope to pick up 2/3 (possibly more) on Monday for an eventual run-up. While I'm not certain $28 is coming, I will call you the VIX Oracle if you are correct.
-Bicky
Lol, yes, very easy to be deceived by these. Even if you know what is going to happen that is only half the battle. Then have to believe it which is the other half the battle.
DeleteAmen to that -SC
Deletethats why its great to have an EKG daily and POWER DATA
weekly road map
allows traders to make better trading decisions
with confidence in the scientific resource
Jaywiz
I'll redo my charts again to the way they were yesterday.... What a rollercoaster!
ReplyDeleteone day wonders nowaday...we go up and down and up and down...have great weekend SC and everyone.
DeleteThanks for the insights
I'm confused...as they were yesterday? To 1370 first?
DeleteYes, 1372 SPX remains a valid target despite the one day wonder yesterday.
ReplyDeleteIf we reach 1372 and descend as quickly as today, we are looking at $5-$6...
ReplyDeleteThe rate of descent slows as it comes down into a bottom. It starts fast then it slows down. Chart is coming. It should be around $9.
DeleteMan I wish you wouldn't have posted todays chart...
ReplyDeleteMy forecast for the year is still on track. Perhaps some July fireworks coming soon?
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/7wqse4v
Excellent timing overall as always ZZ, thanks very much.
DeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteThere is resistance for UVXY around $20, $25(big one), and $32, but not $28, at least to my view. Did you consider these resistance when you made the target $28?
Quite sure about $28 for UVXY as a target - really just an overshoot or false breakout of the spot you mention as resistance. I have another at $33 roughly which agrees with your figure quite well. After that even $40 is possible in the most extreme case.
DeleteFrom an EW perspective, it appears Friday's retrace was a w4, with 1325 being the obvious w3 impulsive move. Looks like a double push down possible for a w5 completion before the move back up. Thoughts, SC?
DeleteSC, I have a question for you. When VXX & UVXY hit the bottom now, XIV doesn't make the highest point. Why is that? In advance, thank you.
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of decay in both UVXY and XIV because of the structure with the VIX futures. This was particularly true with the large whipsaws last week. As a result UVXY made a new low on Friday, but XIV did not reach a new higher high.
DeleteI do think Silver should pop with SPX plunging this week. The safe haven trade should take it higher.
ReplyDeleteSC, still expect 1370? Future is down a lot and seems like we are running out of time.
ReplyDeleteS&P futures failed again, and 1370 can be ruled out now for sure.
DeleteSPX may manage a small bounce before plunging soon.
Quite certain UVXY bottomed Friday. It still may retrace today somewhat before rocketing up this week.
ReplyDeleteThank God... Yesssssssssss!
ReplyDeleteSC,Did you add UVXY pre-market?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Not yet, still at 50%. Looking to add the rest soon. I'm going to wait and see if there is some short term retracement.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
DeleteWondering a target you may have for a retracement today?
Thanks!
I guess my gut feeling buy at $3 for HVU was a good one ! I might sell here and wait for retrace to buy again
ReplyDeleteIt always good to take some profit to protect your gain...nothing will hurt if you are in profit...
Deletesc, thanks for a nice call
ReplyDeleteTricky with all of the whipsaws lately, but UVXY still could see a retracement back into mid $11's short term. I want to add, and plan to hold all for $28.
ReplyDeletedon't want to lock profit then re-enter at $11's?
DeleteHave a feeling you will get it soon if we dont break down any further, losing steam already...20ish points range top today feel like...small bounce into afternoon, setup a good chance for a bigger drop tomorrow by trapping some late bull...
DeleteFor the next while I don't plan to trade any small moves. This is because once this UVXY starts to climb the dips will probably be few and small. I plan to hold for longer periods.
DeleteFor me any dip now is a spot to add.
Also, XIV is off limits for me completely for a while.
When the time comes for considering XIV in the future....why would you not short UVXY instead of buying XIV? Just trying to educate my self on this topic. thanks in advance.
DeleteYes, that is another way of doing it. That would be more leveraged than buying XIV.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteI respect you, but sometimes you are engaging in wrong discussions...which you are exchanging...XIV buy or short UVXY..what happens with that is not only you lose track same time many people start thinking that that is your plan and later start criticizing you...I humbly request you to entertain discussion on only current plan or path to avoid confusion...
Hope you agree with me...
Yes, good point. Important to clarify that. I'm holding UVXY now for a while. Target is $28.
DeleteI got out of HVU at break even from Friday,.....just too scared to hold it....however looking to buy back at $3.20 range or so which I think I will in the next couple of days.
ReplyDeleteHi SS
Deletethat awesome, atleast no lost.
this thing is a beast, you can loose your shirt easily.
we may get a turn around tuesday...
SC,
ReplyDeleteI really admire your work and wish to dream come true, UVXY $28 by 7/2. But 7/2 is just only a week away from now and $28 is about three times higher from Fridays closing price $10.5. Three time jump within a week seems kind of "Can we make it?" question. I also hold UVXY and believe it will reach easily $28 but not sure by 7/2. Could you explain more detail about your plane until 7/2? With Lots of Support.
Something really bother with this HVU product is that we drop huge, this thing barely rise...when spx goes green, this thing drop like we loose all hope...really bad product that somehow feels it best to short this sucker for the long run will garanutee you money for retirement lol
ReplyDeleteIn terms of timing for UVXY to reach my $28 target it could take longer. My cycle analysis is very negative all of this week, but it continues to be negative right into mid-July. I have a chart coming today that shows my outlook for a decline into mid July SPX 1245.
ReplyDeleteUVXY is often slow to start, and that just is an indication of high complacency in the market. There is no panic yet, but there will be soon enough when this dip keeps dipping.
SC,
DeleteWhen you planning your next UVXY entry? 11.50? or lower?
Thanks
Hi SC
DeleteJust to be sure, are you seeing now UVXY target of 28$ can be extended to mid July date? and no longer this end of week?
Thanks!
I would like to see if it can dip into the $11.25-50 zone. Not certain.
DeleteAll I know is that my cycle analysis this week is very negative for SPX. UVXY should see sizeable gains this week in my view. As far as which date it reaches my $28 target, that could take up to mid July at the latest though it could get there sooner too. It's a little early to say just yet.
DeleteIt'll be more accurate to look at the timing later this week.
Finally starting to move!
ReplyDeleteSC, I see a decent bounce tomorrow, just bought HVI at $8.23
ReplyDeleteSS
DeleteHope you are right.
Thanks
SS76,
DeleteYou are playing with Fire here...best of luck..
Luck maybe on his side...
DeleteThanks, I know it....but feeling like we are going to turn before really heading down...I'm targeting 1336 on the S&P again before Thursday, and its there that I will reshort with HVU which I think will be significatly cheaper, but who knows.
DeleteHi SC. Do u have a target for uvxy for the end of this week? Thx
ReplyDeleteStill early to pinpoint a price for UVXY the end of this week. Any way I look at it though, I'm expecting much higher this week.
DeleteI want to open discussion here...28th and 29th we have europe summit, basically this meeting will seal the fate of eurozone...what do you think VIX will behave before meeting or during meeting?
ReplyDeleteIf result is favourable then market will go higher...but if it is no decision or negative I think VIX will shoot to the moon...
let's share your ideas...
sold HVI $8.23 flat trade, bought HVU at $3.44 for a flip out before close. Then maybe HND?
ReplyDeleteOk, sold HVU at $3.47, rebuy HVI at $8.25 and HND at $6.07.
ReplyDeleteSC,Looks like UVXY will not go below 12,Will you load up UVXY before the close?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Hi SS
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling if dont bounce hard into close, we may bounce tomorrow.
If we bounce hard into close, we may drop tomorrow.
Thanks!
Let's see what happens in the final minutes today. I may wait until tomorrow, but I really don't want to wait much longer. Clock is ticking....
ReplyDeleteya, the weak vix action and bounce for ES off 1303 t me is a sign that next stop is 1336 for SPX Cash....and that is where I load HVU again.
ReplyDeletelook at the time left, profit taken time...
DeleteThis looks more and more like I fear, bull trap...
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteLet us know if you are jumping or not before close..
Thanks
it's not too late to get n on the AAPL pickin' goin on right now....bought my $570 july puts fri $10 now up a mere %50 but it's far from done. I'm gonna make some AAPL cobbler, AApl fritters, candy AAPLs, carmel AAPLs,homemade AAPL pie, AApl jelly, and perserves... you name it I'll make it....gonna have plenty of AAPls falling off the tree this week and next.
ReplyDeleteAre all those for Steve in the other world lol ;p
DeleteLol, my mouth is watering!
DeleteVIX futures dropping after close.....
ReplyDeleteI am looking at the NYMO chart, it seems we still in overbought territory, more downside is coming till we reach oversold. Feels like SPX aint bouncing much if at all.
ReplyDeleteVIX futures drop could be MM trying to get in cheaper, who knows. IWM and SPY are in red in AH.
o.k. we got this.. but after your mid july negatives...do your cycles indicate a sharp rise...as a bounce...or a grind of sorts up and out of the bottom??..the pattern I'm watching
ReplyDeleteshould 1200-07 come to pass would indicate a bounce type move...have you/do your cycles go that far??? thanks.
Yes, I have a plan for after mid July. There are very positive spots. It's been a rough ride the last few months but we're still not in a real bear just yet...
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWhoa Stockyard...dial it down a little bit. SC is doing a great job here and we've all got plenty of time between now and mid/late July. Patience....all in good time. :-)
ReplyDeleteThinking I'll gauge the market action today. I see today being up, and tomorrow even more so, with the best opportunity to buy HVU on Thursday or perhaps Wednesday before close although I hate holding overnight. I suspect we'll be looking at $2.60 HVU.
ReplyDeleteSold HVI at $8.40, bought HVU at $3.28 with only a half position in case consumer confidence shoots the market higher....
ReplyDeleteSold HVU at $3.31
ReplyDeleterebought HVU at $3.51, looks like its moving..
ReplyDelete