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Monday, June 11, 2012

$SPX - Big Rally Coming

SPX has continued to follow the plan from June 4th analysis. Today, the deep retrace occurred, and another major rally phase is to commence shortly. 

SPX tested several major fork resistances.  The result was the false breakout early this morning.  The real breakout is coming soon to kick off a big rally up to the target zone!

Late June looks very weak again with a major decline anticipated.     

60min Chart

















June 4th analysis shows the deep retrace that occurred today with another spike up to follow.

Chart from June 4th:

Daily Chart





81 comments:

  1. A bold call, but I'm broadly with you.

    Primary target 1350/60, upper resistance zone 1370/80.
    --

    The major difference is that considering the bigger monthly charts, I'm looking for 1150/00 in the next wave.

    Good wishes.

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  2. sc, do you see we rally to 1340s and pull back to 1310 as you suggested before or we go straight here to 1372? It is only about one week away from your projected 1372 time target.

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    Replies
    1. The 1340's zone was tested overnight in the futures. Now that we have seen the deep retrace as well, I think we are going straight to the 1372 target!

      That could even be a slightly conservative target.

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  3. I would be shocked to see 1370 in the month of June.

    1340 - 1350 tops...

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  4. Big question for me is ....Is ZZ or SC right :)
    June 5 or end of June the bottom.

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  5. Oil is showing some good relative strength this morning pre-market. If S&P is due to rally here, oil may make it up to test around $90.

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  6. Hi SC. Do you think XIV is good entry point today. Thx

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    Replies
    1. XIV is really cheap in my view. I'm still targeting high $11 for XIV soon. UVXY should be lower than XIV within a week, and bottom in the $10-11 area!

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    2. Dates for this SC? $11 XIV by June 18th, then UVXY between $10 - $11 at that point for a hold to the end of June?

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    3. $11.75 for XIV let's just keep it simple and say by June 19th or so +/- a day. Then yes I will buy and hold UVXY at $10.50-$11 and hold until end of June $28.

      We have gone through the chop zone, now time to hold for longer periods, larger moves. So I have made the switch from quick trades in the chop zone to holding more patiently.

      Delete
  7. 1370's for SPX is probably conservative. 1380's may be a better estimate.

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  8. I don't really have big expectations for the next few days. My cycle work is mildly positive today. I think we'll see a rally but back and filly type action for a few days.

    Once it firms up, then look for the breakout, and the way this market is trading a 50 point up day on the S&P would not be a surprise.

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  9. Looks like markets don't want take too much risk before Greek election

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  10. SC, you said that precious metals will perform well these coming days.
    Going forward, there are two macro economic factors :
    -Greek elections (June 17)
    -FOMC projections (June 20)

    So what will happen ?
    Greek will remain in the Euro and Bernanke will give hints of more quantitative easing ?

    Thanks for sharing your macro economic views

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  11. The way my charts and cycles are setup, I will hold my longs until SPX is up in the 1370-80's. If we don't rally much this week, I would have no problem holding right through this Greek election/Fed meeting.

    I think it is clear that the market will surge soon, this week and/or next week. As far as interpreting the news, all I can say is that there will be some news that is taken very positively soon, but at the end of June the news/mood will be extremely negative. Greece and the Fed are looking like positive events, but something will unravel end of June....

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  12. UVXY did hit near $19 as mentioned Friday. Monday's cycles did look unusually negative. I had doubts it would reach that high, but sure enough the negative cycle steamrolled right over the Spanish bailout news. The seamingly impossible will happen with this market in June.

    So I will stick firmly to my charts and follow my cycles, and let the impossible become the reality.

    SCJune 8, 2012 11:25 AM
    $19 could be possible next for UVXY.

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  13. gold pushing up nicely today

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  14. Hi SC and SS76

    I just joined you guys with XIV and HVI, let the party begin lol


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. hey, better price than I! Welcome!

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    2. I plan to sell it soon...not going to keep it over the weekend..may just hold cash over the weekend...cause it just too much unknown with Greek election

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  15. SPX moves 10 points and xiv is unchanged almost. Has some catching up to do I'd say.

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  16. It does seem that it should firm up.

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  17. Thank you SC, As usuall Perfect job man :)

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  18. Hi SC do you see another slight pullback in the S&P before the big move up. Say a dip to 1310 or so?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Let's see how it goes Muzz. It could be possible.

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    2. I suspect may see a mild rally into Thurs and cool into Fri with the bulk of the rally next week.

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    3. So, perhaps 1340 is in the cards by Thursday at some point, then retreat into Monday morning, followed by big rally fuelled on the FED meeting scheduled for June 19-20, and drop starting on the 20th?

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    4. It's difficult to be exact but something along those lines does fit well. I don't have much expectation for the rest of this week, the big rally is more likely next week.

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  19. Testing the yellow fork line now.

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    Replies
    1. Break 1327 gives us 1339 which is the Pivot Point....I think.

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  20. Why market is flat today? and VIX even after big rise yesterday didn't rise much..any reason?

    thanks

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  21. Dollar looks to be starting a bounce here.

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    Replies
    1. Consequently it is bad for precious metals ?

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    2. Does not seem to be much correlation there right now. Besides, I think it is a short term bounce...probably about 1/3 done already and gold is not moving down much.

      Delete
  22. Hi SC

    Do you have stop in place? XIV at 8.77 now, think you enter around 9.5 ish.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'm staying, still confident that the market is setting up to rally.

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  23. You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!

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    Replies
    1. you can listen to him....follow his every move that he posts...problem will be following the ones he doesn't...then you can bash away..oh wait he's your boy...you have a wonderful tool(internet) to learn from...mostly free stuff...educate yourself and maybe someday people will follow you(maybe)

      Delete
  24. Study EW and you will understand. P1 down to 1266, P2 back to recent highs. Now P3 is ready to roll.

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  25. I know what it is....is the target 1265?

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  26. Watch that 1307...Add more shorts if it breaks tomorrow!

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    Replies
    1. so if 1307 holds, would that mean the drop is only delayed and more chop, or potentially signal a reversal and a move higher as SC is suggesting.

      Would be really scary to hold short over the weekend...problem is I too see a rise to approx 1340 (not quite 1380 as SC is suggesting) before it drops. Todays drop I think solidifies my view that the market should not have enough juice to go any higher than that....problem for me is timing and when this happens.

      Delete
  27. interesting financials did better than most areas today...several actually up...and these usually lead market direction....also euro up a whole penny today but the market didn't seem to care...maybe tomorrow...I still hold for 1340's but good news will need to spark...jobs??? that would be a TNT...even if it is fake number...light the fuse...

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  28. DOW ...................

    http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/7139/dowcycle.jpg

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  29. SILVER


    http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/534/silverx.jpg

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  30. The wall of worry has been re-established even though SPX is 50 points above the 1266 June 4th low. The market will do what it always does in these situations.

    It will climb the wall of worry. We're consolidating for the push higher.

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  31. still on target for 1380s on June 19-20 or the date is pushed later due to the consolidation?

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    Replies
    1. I still think we're on track for around those dates. It could be an extra day or something but not much longer.

      Delete
  32. Hi SC: So whats today and tomorrow shaping up to be? Thx

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  33. I don't have much expectation for today/tomorrow. Generally a mild rally into tomorrow.

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    Replies
    1. We're nearing the end of the consolidation period imo.

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    2. Hi SC

      rally into tomorrow? wondering if you may have any target for the XIV for this mild rally?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. I don't have a target for tomorrow currently, but expect it could rally into tomorrow morning. Then may cool into the close somewhat going into the weekend.

      Regardless of how things bounce around I'm holding for next week targeting the large move up.

      Delete
    4. Hi SC

      wondering if you thought about going cash? and wait it out? or you expect to have a big gap up on Monday that is why you wont go cash?


      Thanks!

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    5. I don't have any particular expectation for Monday, but I am confident that we're getting set to rally next week. My strategy is to ignore any small moves and noise in favour of holding for a large move higher.

      Delete
  34. Gotta say, pretty tough to see it rally now with Greek elections on Sunday....

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  35. SC, what about precious metals ?

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    Replies
    1. On a short term basis I would think the metals trade higher along with the market.

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  36. SC, oil seems to be trying to put in a bottom here imo. What are your thoughts on oil?

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  37. SC

    Why VIX is not moving as much as market, this is second time in last three session that DOW went on more then 100 points and VIX is almost no change!

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. There is excessive fear in the market. There is also a nice H&S on the VIX that has formed over the last month. VIX is about to fold like a house of cards imo.

      Delete
  38. Crazy day for gold today! My system closed out my gold long today and looks like it might set up for a short in the next couple of days. Not a long term short, but likely a couple of days. With that said, it could easily push another $30 higher from here in the next 1-3 days, but the trading edge that opened my trade is not there anymore, so have to get out. Good luck all.

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  39. Replies
    1. Until the spx moves up through 1327 it seems like xiv isn't going anywhere. Kind of annoying. Lot of fear going into the weekend too.

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    2. Still like XIV, just a waiting game.

      Delete
  40. GOLD.........

    http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/7470/goldqh.jpg

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  41. SC, it seems your predictions are coming to fruition.

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  42. G20 dropping the QE bomb.. fakeout? or this real deal. Interesting..

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  43. do you think this was fake rally?

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  44. Still early to make conclusions but sure was a nice finish to the day!

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  45. Sentiment definitely supports your view SC. I can easily see another 40 points in the next 3-4 days to wipe out the heavily short retail traders here.

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  46. well that's why they call it faith...1340's NOW look good for fri. at last and that little news report cleaned out my BAC call options for a 71% profit(pat on the back) and now i'm looking for a retest(short) of the triangle breakout it was in (BAC) then off toward $8(my chart $8.22)next week. Thanks SC and everyone for what you do to those who don't LEARN!!

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  47. SC,
    So far it is looking like an amazing call on your long xiv going into next week after the drop to 8.55. Someday you will have to tell us how you made that call. Probably retail traders are hugely short going into the greek election. When it turns out to be a non-event on Monday with the new leaders promising to keep things going, the euro could explode higher driving the dollar down and the short covering stock market higher adding in euphoria about the near certainty of the fed promising more easing.

    Then with the S&P safely above 1360 support and retail traders expecting new yearly highs... the Fed announces no new QE program on Wednesday afternoon and... freefall to 1260 where retail traders will now go short.

    The rumor today that the G-20 is prepared for coordinated QE after the greek elections is laughable. I can only think there is actually someone out there watching CNBC trading on information fed to them by Jim Cramer.

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