Late June looks weak again, and June 29th is the date targeted for a low around 1245.
Daily Chart
Monday, June 4, 2012
$SPX - June Targets
The next several days are likely to be quiet with sideways trade. There is support at 1270 which could still be tested this week. However, the market is setting up to rally, and it will be powerful with a test of fork resistance at the green arrow targeted. The date anticipated is around June 18th for that upside target.
Late June looks weak again, and June 29th is the date targeted for a low around 1245.
Daily Chart
Late June looks weak again, and June 29th is the date targeted for a low around 1245.
Daily Chart
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SC-You do produce some excellent charts.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure about us going up into the 18th.
I targeted a low for Fri.+/- 1 day,but my next
high point should only be 2/3 day bounce into
about June 7th +/-, and a decline into OPEX area.But for now it looks up and I am flexible enough to follow the trend. Thanks again for
your analysis/insights and diligence.
Good trading to all
Thank you.
DeleteIt should take a few days to firm up so I agree a low later this week, not much lower, looks most likely. Then up from there.
We're testing 1270 now so a low 1265 approximately later in the week looks about right.
I think XIV may test $8.60 next few days but then dip to $7.90 to bottom out.
ReplyDeleteOil divergence from S&P looking good here. I went long Friday...was a bit too early, amazing decline.
ReplyDeleteo.k. 1422 to 1357 w1= 65 pts
ReplyDelete1357 to 1415 w2= 58 pts...89% retrace(fib #)
1415 to 1292 w3= 123 pts...65x 1.89=122.5
1292 to 1334 w4= 42 pts...123x34%=42
1334 to 1266 w5= 68 pts....
all figures rounded for general viewing...also 360 degrees below 1415 high(most recent) in Gann time is 1268.5.
so let's call this wave done. 90 degrees from 1266 low
will be 1301...also chart pattern indicates descending wedge with price on bottom TL.time to make a break for it.
Thank you, interesting numbers.
DeleteInteresting indeed....so you see 1301 and then what? Would be interesting to see these numbers going forward based on what you think like you did looking in hindsight...
DeleteGood stuff.
Back up to 1375ish? Seems a bit high for a bounce.
ReplyDeleteSC, are you expecting a pullback today to test yesterdays lows, and in particular $7.90 for XIV, or do you see that later in the week?
ReplyDeletefinally. an analysis I agree with.
ReplyDeleteWhy 1375ish?
ReplyDeleteThe market appears rather ill. I can only see it rallying a couple of days before we carry on down.
stock.......
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing.......so are you long or short and how are you trading this info? gj
My take is that we probably are going to retest the low of yesterday.
ReplyDeleteMonday June 11th is a candidate for a low. Then up to June 14th high, dip and final run up into June 18th.
SPX 1289 looks like resistance.
ReplyDeleteHave you sold your XIV?
ReplyDeleteYes, I'll look to reload on a dip.
DeleteGood market today. Will be interesting to see if this is the final bottom or not and if PMs continue to decouple.
ReplyDeleteCycle theory would put this at high odds of being a solid bottom, although I agree with SC that some dip is likely in the next day or two.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteAre you expecting XIV to drop to low like this week or soon, saw you mention you sold it already and will reload on dip?
You dont consider getting into UVXY in the mean time?
Thanks!
A dip for the market into Fri/Mon looks likely, but also have to be fairly cautious with shorts because there is not much time to work with either.
Deletefirst off...all these are striclty target areas from others
ReplyDelete(gann, Bulkowski, fib,etc..). Gann was big on 50% retace.
1422-1266=156/2=78+1266=1344...180 degrees from 1266(Gann) is equal to 1338.My 1301(closer to 1302) so 1302-1266=36...this would break out of falling wedge pattern(given a few days)call it wave A .36/2=18(retrace,also possible retest of trend breakout) added to 1266=1284 and should that be wave B then
C=1320.If w1,w2,w3 the 3 should be 1.62x36=58.3+1284=1342..
so I'm comfortable long until then.1338-1344 range but everything subject to change...just possible targets and ranges.w5 (if it is) could reach SC 1370.Also on the "way out there" front...Bulkowski breakout of wedge is 70% of total drop 156x70%=109 add to price at breakout..something like 1290's so might see 1400-1410...way out there huh??
best time to be wrong is when the market overshoots
Deletea long side target.Bought BAC $8 calls mon. for
4 cents and cashed out at the close 10 cents.
anyway,1315-1266=49/2=24.5+1266=1290.5 for a possible retrace if that was end of wave.Because the ove was so fierce, it poked out of upper trend line on falling wedge but would not call it a breakout. So I cashed out all and will set buys at a lower price. Not enough downside for me to play.
I work during the day with no access to make trades intraday.now...if it's abc then if c takes off at that 1290 area, we're still banging on that 1340 area for c complete.if 12345 then a 3 hits
SC's 1370 with 2 more waves to go..maybe 1390-1400
1302 is here. Now retrace to 1284?
ReplyDeleteThe breakout is real. It'll probably run a little more then retrace to around 1289. Up much more from there.
ReplyDeleteso when are you expecting your major drop then....around June 18th? What level at that time?
ReplyDeleteI guess I'm curious as to your targets both on this way up, and then back down again.
I think you targeted 1375 for the top, and drop to 1165? ALl in June?
Small dips along the way but major rally. 1372 is a maximum target. The date around June 18th. Then drop into the end of June 1245.
DeleteWow! Great move so far today! I think oil can push another few dollars before a pullback here. That bodes well for the market short term.
ReplyDeleteNot much higher then expect to dip into 1289 or so Fri/Mon. That will be the last chance imo!
ReplyDeleteSC, I have been reading your blog for some time, and must say you are getting the direction very well. Your targets tend to end up being overshot, but usually are hit.
ReplyDeleteWell done, and a big thanks from me as it certainly helps me in my decisions.
Thank you. The June plan is looking good!
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletewhat price range you expecting to see in XIV and HVI for an entry now?
Thanks!
Traders now realize the breakout is real so not a good idea to chase it here.
DeleteXIV should be attractive again Fri/Mon I think. Will fine tune at that time. $8.80 looks possible.
Hi SC
Deleteso you seeing further upside tomorrow?
Thanks!
A little more upside today seems more likely than tomorrow.
DeleteHmmmmm, HVU tempting here. Perhaps best to wait until Friday though.
ReplyDeleteI think it still looks early, but getting there. Tomorrow may be best.
DeleteBought $5.02 HVU for a quick trade, feels right, will sell over $5.10.
DeleteHi SS76, you got good feeling today, maybe should try a hand in the casino too tonight? hehe
Deletelol, I know, this is like playing a casino with HVU, honestly.
DeleteWell, I've held and now I think I'll hold and just place my stop loss where I bought it at $5.02. I don't think I'll get stopped out, but I'm usually wrong.
Deletehaha, just do what you normally wont do.
Deletestopped at $5.03. I'm ok with that. Live to fight another day!
DeleteJune 5th low right on time. I still see new highs by September...
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/7wqse4v
bloody Hell!
Delete(missed your post by 20min, freaky eh?)
Collision (High/Low)
Deletehttp://s17.postimage.org/gk1d3s0v1/temp3.png
LOVE YOUR CHART
DeleteTHANK YOU SO MUCH FOR Zigzag
Zigzag
Deletehttp://dl.dropbox.com/u/312885/Feb%203rd%202012-02-03%20at%2012.57.04%20PM.png
Your earliest analysis
You're super powerful!
The market as your analysis, May 8 is the highest position
I'm so pleased to once again see your latest analysis
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Zigzag is da MAN! You need a blog.
ReplyDeleteHi SC. Do u think XIV will still dip into Friday / Monday? Thx.
ReplyDeleteThere should be resistance for SPX at 1323 on a short term basis. I think we'll see a dip into Fri/Mon as my cycle work is fairly negative.
ReplyDeleteA dip into Fri/Mon makes sense then the next higher high around June 14th.
Great calls SC! My work calls for a high today and a low next Thurs.+/- a day....But hey, I am flexible, could come earlier. Good trading
DeleteThe trend should remain up until the 18th or so overall. Keep in mind there will be dips along the way. So the highs and lows dates will be bunched up close together at times.
DeleteYES! Good tactics/strategy
DeleteI bought UVXY for pop into $18's. I think XIV can come down to around $9.00 Fri/Monday.
ReplyDeleteIn my view this is an excellent setup for UVXY but only for a short term several day pop.
DeleteMy 1372 target isn't so far away any more!
ReplyDeleteBulls are rampaging because Jaytard is expecting a decline.
ReplyDeleteThanks Jay, I made money off your blog without having to cough up the membership fee.
bought HVU at $4.43, stop placed at $4.45
ReplyDeleteHi SS76
DeleteYou are on a steam roll lol
Thanks!
well, I'm getting the feeling that the market wants to power higher regardless and that I'll get stopped out. I hope I don't, but I'm not risking losses at this point. Rather get stopped out then looking back, especially with HVU.
DeleteWord has it that Chinas rate move this morning is because some bad manufacturers numbers are coming out on Saturday. SC, once again, you may be bang on with this move on UVXY.
ReplyDeleteHoping my HVU doesn't get stopped out. Will just hold it now.
Gold selling off hard....Soo much for the sustained rally in Gold. 1600 broken, may test 1530 low again.
ReplyDeleteI think the metals find support soon and press higher in June. Silver target $31.50 to $32 for the month.
ReplyDeletedepending how fast it retraces, low 1300's would be a good price because that would retest the breakout trend line....
ReplyDeletethen off to the races...and looks more like abc so 1329-1266 is 63 pts add to retest area and voila' you get close to SC 1370.
so you think Low 1300's is as low as it goes? I'm thinking it tests the 20 DMA.
ReplyDeleteSC, I have a couple of questions for you. First, I am with 100% cash. Do you think it's better to buy UVXY for tomorrow and Monday (China will announce big stuff on Saturday) or wait for XIV to take a dip?
ReplyDeleteSecond, could you share the specific date for silver at $31.50-32? Around next week? Thank you.
Best to be careful and nimble with UVXY. There won't be much more upside for UVXY so I'll be bailing on it soon. This is just a small dip for the market before it surges again next week so I will be looking at XIV very soon. Either today or at the latest Monday.
DeleteI think it'll hold above.
ReplyDeleteHi SC. Are u stll thinking below $9 for entry point for XIV? Thx.
ReplyDeleteYes ultimately around $9, but there is support for XIV here at $9.27 so it may bounce first then come down to $9.
DeleteSold HVU at $4.82. Bought HVI at $7.70.
ReplyDeleteHi SS76
Deleteyou putting a stop with your HVI today?
Thanks!
no stop. I think SC's analysis is correct. Will decide to sell this afternoon and stay in cash this weekend, or hold it. Staying away from HVU for now.
DeleteSC,Are you still in UVXY?
ReplyDeleteThanks
I'm out, but most likely it'll pop later today. I'll be looking at XIV soon.
DeleteThinking about playing that pop also as I think the markets will be green shortly, and HVI could be over $8......perhaps HVU around 1pm will be a good buy.
DeleteHi SC
Deleteare you looking for a UVXY or XIV pop later today? abit confusing.
Thanks!
Mkts bouncing off the open but they may close a little weak today.
Deletesold HVI at $7.90, bought HVU at $4.51....for the bounce. China news Sat will be very bad, Spain not looking good either, and IMF on Monday will reveal the true shape of the banking situation....so we'll see, my mood right now is negative though. Changes hourly with all the information at our fingertips.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteIt seems we climbing higher as the time pass by...do you still see big weakness in the late afternoon for you to get into XIV for a good price, XIV at 9.72 now, pretty far from 9. It would seem it will take a huge sell off to get any where near 9.
your thoughts?
Thanks!
New post is up.
DeleteI just bought UVXY again. Even if the market does not see weakness into the close today, then Monday morning still looks weak potentially.