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Monday, June 4, 2012

$SPX - June Targets

The next several days are likely to be quiet with sideways trade.  There is support at 1270 which could still be tested this week.  However, the market is setting up to rally, and it will be powerful with a test of fork resistance at the green arrow targeted.  The date anticipated is around June 18th for that upside target.

Late June looks weak again, and June 29th is the date targeted for a low around 1245. 

Daily Chart

83 comments:

  1. SC-You do produce some excellent charts.
    I'm not sure about us going up into the 18th.
    I targeted a low for Fri.+/- 1 day,but my next
    high point should only be 2/3 day bounce into
    about June 7th +/-, and a decline into OPEX area.But for now it looks up and I am flexible enough to follow the trend. Thanks again for
    your analysis/insights and diligence.
    Good trading to all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you.

      It should take a few days to firm up so I agree a low later this week, not much lower, looks most likely. Then up from there.

      We're testing 1270 now so a low 1265 approximately later in the week looks about right.

      Delete
  2. I think XIV may test $8.60 next few days but then dip to $7.90 to bottom out.

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  3. Oil divergence from S&P looking good here. I went long Friday...was a bit too early, amazing decline.

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  4. o.k. 1422 to 1357 w1= 65 pts
    1357 to 1415 w2= 58 pts...89% retrace(fib #)
    1415 to 1292 w3= 123 pts...65x 1.89=122.5
    1292 to 1334 w4= 42 pts...123x34%=42
    1334 to 1266 w5= 68 pts....
    all figures rounded for general viewing...also 360 degrees below 1415 high(most recent) in Gann time is 1268.5.
    so let's call this wave done. 90 degrees from 1266 low
    will be 1301...also chart pattern indicates descending wedge with price on bottom TL.time to make a break for it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, interesting numbers.

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    2. Interesting indeed....so you see 1301 and then what? Would be interesting to see these numbers going forward based on what you think like you did looking in hindsight...

      Good stuff.

      Delete
  5. Back up to 1375ish? Seems a bit high for a bounce.

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  6. SC, are you expecting a pullback today to test yesterdays lows, and in particular $7.90 for XIV, or do you see that later in the week?

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  7. finally. an analysis I agree with.

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  8. Why 1375ish?
    The market appears rather ill. I can only see it rallying a couple of days before we carry on down.

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  9. stock.......

    Thanks for sharing.......so are you long or short and how are you trading this info? gj

    ReplyDelete
  10. My take is that we probably are going to retest the low of yesterday.

    Monday June 11th is a candidate for a low. Then up to June 14th high, dip and final run up into June 18th.

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  11. SPX 1289 looks like resistance.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Replies
    1. Yes, I'll look to reload on a dip.

      Delete
  13. Good market today. Will be interesting to see if this is the final bottom or not and if PMs continue to decouple.

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  14. Cycle theory would put this at high odds of being a solid bottom, although I agree with SC that some dip is likely in the next day or two.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hi SC

    Are you expecting XIV to drop to low like this week or soon, saw you mention you sold it already and will reload on dip?

    You dont consider getting into UVXY in the mean time?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A dip for the market into Fri/Mon looks likely, but also have to be fairly cautious with shorts because there is not much time to work with either.

      Delete
  16. first off...all these are striclty target areas from others
    (gann, Bulkowski, fib,etc..). Gann was big on 50% retace.
    1422-1266=156/2=78+1266=1344...180 degrees from 1266(Gann) is equal to 1338.My 1301(closer to 1302) so 1302-1266=36...this would break out of falling wedge pattern(given a few days)call it wave A .36/2=18(retrace,also possible retest of trend breakout) added to 1266=1284 and should that be wave B then
    C=1320.If w1,w2,w3 the 3 should be 1.62x36=58.3+1284=1342..
    so I'm comfortable long until then.1338-1344 range but everything subject to change...just possible targets and ranges.w5 (if it is) could reach SC 1370.Also on the "way out there" front...Bulkowski breakout of wedge is 70% of total drop 156x70%=109 add to price at breakout..something like 1290's so might see 1400-1410...way out there huh??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. best time to be wrong is when the market overshoots
      a long side target.Bought BAC $8 calls mon. for
      4 cents and cashed out at the close 10 cents.
      anyway,1315-1266=49/2=24.5+1266=1290.5 for a possible retrace if that was end of wave.Because the ove was so fierce, it poked out of upper trend line on falling wedge but would not call it a breakout. So I cashed out all and will set buys at a lower price. Not enough downside for me to play.
      I work during the day with no access to make trades intraday.now...if it's abc then if c takes off at that 1290 area, we're still banging on that 1340 area for c complete.if 12345 then a 3 hits
      SC's 1370 with 2 more waves to go..maybe 1390-1400

      Delete
  17. 1302 is here. Now retrace to 1284?

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  18. The breakout is real. It'll probably run a little more then retrace to around 1289. Up much more from there.

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  19. so when are you expecting your major drop then....around June 18th? What level at that time?

    I guess I'm curious as to your targets both on this way up, and then back down again.

    I think you targeted 1375 for the top, and drop to 1165? ALl in June?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Small dips along the way but major rally. 1372 is a maximum target. The date around June 18th. Then drop into the end of June 1245.

      Delete
  20. Wow! Great move so far today! I think oil can push another few dollars before a pullback here. That bodes well for the market short term.

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  21. Not much higher then expect to dip into 1289 or so Fri/Mon. That will be the last chance imo!

    ReplyDelete
  22. SC, I have been reading your blog for some time, and must say you are getting the direction very well. Your targets tend to end up being overshot, but usually are hit.

    Well done, and a big thanks from me as it certainly helps me in my decisions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. The June plan is looking good!

      Delete
  23. Hi SC

    what price range you expecting to see in XIV and HVI for an entry now?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Traders now realize the breakout is real so not a good idea to chase it here.

      XIV should be attractive again Fri/Mon I think. Will fine tune at that time. $8.80 looks possible.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      so you seeing further upside tomorrow?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. A little more upside today seems more likely than tomorrow.

      Delete
  24. Hmmmmm, HVU tempting here. Perhaps best to wait until Friday though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it still looks early, but getting there. Tomorrow may be best.

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    2. Bought $5.02 HVU for a quick trade, feels right, will sell over $5.10.

      Delete
    3. Hi SS76, you got good feeling today, maybe should try a hand in the casino too tonight? hehe

      Delete
    4. lol, I know, this is like playing a casino with HVU, honestly.

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    5. Well, I've held and now I think I'll hold and just place my stop loss where I bought it at $5.02. I don't think I'll get stopped out, but I'm usually wrong.

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    6. haha, just do what you normally wont do.

      Delete
    7. stopped at $5.03. I'm ok with that. Live to fight another day!

      Delete
  25. June 5th low right on time. I still see new highs by September...

    http://tinyurl.com/7wqse4v

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. bloody Hell!
      (missed your post by 20min, freaky eh?)

      Delete
    2. Collision (High/Low)
      http://s17.postimage.org/gk1d3s0v1/temp3.png

      Delete
    3. LOVE YOUR CHART
      THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR Zigzag

      Delete
    4. Zigzag

      http://dl.dropbox.com/u/312885/Feb%203rd%202012-02-03%20at%2012.57.04%20PM.png

      Your earliest analysis
      You're super powerful!
      The market as your analysis, May 8 is the highest position
      I'm so pleased to once again see your latest analysis
      Thank you so much!!
      Love you

      Delete
  26. Zigzag is da MAN! You need a blog.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi SC. Do u think XIV will still dip into Friday / Monday? Thx.

    ReplyDelete
  28. There should be resistance for SPX at 1323 on a short term basis. I think we'll see a dip into Fri/Mon as my cycle work is fairly negative.

    A dip into Fri/Mon makes sense then the next higher high around June 14th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great calls SC! My work calls for a high today and a low next Thurs.+/- a day....But hey, I am flexible, could come earlier. Good trading

      Delete
    2. The trend should remain up until the 18th or so overall. Keep in mind there will be dips along the way. So the highs and lows dates will be bunched up close together at times.

      Delete
    3. YES! Good tactics/strategy

      Delete
  29. I bought UVXY for pop into $18's. I think XIV can come down to around $9.00 Fri/Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In my view this is an excellent setup for UVXY but only for a short term several day pop.

      Delete
  30. My 1372 target isn't so far away any more!

    ReplyDelete
  31. Bulls are rampaging because Jaytard is expecting a decline.

    Thanks Jay, I made money off your blog without having to cough up the membership fee.

    ReplyDelete
  32. bought HVU at $4.43, stop placed at $4.45

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SS76

      You are on a steam roll lol


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. well, I'm getting the feeling that the market wants to power higher regardless and that I'll get stopped out. I hope I don't, but I'm not risking losses at this point. Rather get stopped out then looking back, especially with HVU.

      Delete
  33. Word has it that Chinas rate move this morning is because some bad manufacturers numbers are coming out on Saturday. SC, once again, you may be bang on with this move on UVXY.

    Hoping my HVU doesn't get stopped out. Will just hold it now.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Gold selling off hard....Soo much for the sustained rally in Gold. 1600 broken, may test 1530 low again.

    ReplyDelete
  35. SC, did you expect this sharp selloff for precious metals.
    What's your plan now ?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the metals find support soon and press higher in June. Silver target $31.50 to $32 for the month.

      Delete
  36. depending how fast it retraces, low 1300's would be a good price because that would retest the breakout trend line....
    then off to the races...and looks more like abc so 1329-1266 is 63 pts add to retest area and voila' you get close to SC 1370.

    ReplyDelete
  37. so you think Low 1300's is as low as it goes? I'm thinking it tests the 20 DMA.

    ReplyDelete
  38. SC, I have a couple of questions for you. First, I am with 100% cash. Do you think it's better to buy UVXY for tomorrow and Monday (China will announce big stuff on Saturday) or wait for XIV to take a dip?

    Second, could you share the specific date for silver at $31.50-32? Around next week? Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Best to be careful and nimble with UVXY. There won't be much more upside for UVXY so I'll be bailing on it soon. This is just a small dip for the market before it surges again next week so I will be looking at XIV very soon. Either today or at the latest Monday.

      Delete
  39. SC, do you think that silver will go under $27 before going higher ?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hi SC. Are u stll thinking below $9 for entry point for XIV? Thx.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes ultimately around $9, but there is support for XIV here at $9.27 so it may bounce first then come down to $9.

      Delete
  41. Sold HVU at $4.82. Bought HVI at $7.70.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SS76

      you putting a stop with your HVI today?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. no stop. I think SC's analysis is correct. Will decide to sell this afternoon and stay in cash this weekend, or hold it. Staying away from HVU for now.

      Delete
  42. SC,Are you still in UVXY?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm out, but most likely it'll pop later today. I'll be looking at XIV soon.

      Delete
    2. Thinking about playing that pop also as I think the markets will be green shortly, and HVI could be over $8......perhaps HVU around 1pm will be a good buy.

      Delete
    3. Hi SC

      are you looking for a UVXY or XIV pop later today? abit confusing.


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. Mkts bouncing off the open but they may close a little weak today.

      Delete
  43. sold HVI at $7.90, bought HVU at $4.51....for the bounce. China news Sat will be very bad, Spain not looking good either, and IMF on Monday will reveal the true shape of the banking situation....so we'll see, my mood right now is negative though. Changes hourly with all the information at our fingertips.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Hi SC

    It seems we climbing higher as the time pass by...do you still see big weakness in the late afternoon for you to get into XIV for a good price, XIV at 9.72 now, pretty far from 9. It would seem it will take a huge sell off to get any where near 9.

    your thoughts?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. New post is up.

      I just bought UVXY again. Even if the market does not see weakness into the close today, then Monday morning still looks weak potentially.

      Delete