Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
July 3rd, 4th or 5th...If this "drop" happens you will be a genius SC !
A genius that likes AAPL pie :)
NOW you're talkin'...Im likin July 3 because 360degrees from the high, full moon, last one june4(ouch)and 40 wk cycle wraps up in that area.and also anything where AAPL is being cooked is good for me(a couple weeks)....then I like them again.
Thank you, I do see negatives around June 29th, but may see that carry into July 3rd.
SC, why do you think that gold and silver will act as safe haven only for a short period ?
I think they will act as a safe haven for at least into mid July maybe longer. I want to review at that time because I have larger cycles that are becoming mature. What I see is that the big bull run for Gold is almost over. There may still be a few months left, but not a long period.
gold and silver appear to be going down until the first week of july.. cycles point to a bottom and a cycle inversion.. are you still projecting 17 dollar silver.. you said it would happen in march, april, may or June... whats going on with that one?
It's been a slow sideways grind for Silver. I think it'll bounce into mid July at least. $17 is coming for Silver, but still think it bounces first. Once $25 breaks, then $15-18 looks like the next major support.
SC,Looks like VIX bottomed today morning...UVXY reached close to 11.50 ( 11.58)..confidence number came below 1 expectation of 63...that is big negative for market...
Hi SCAre you still waiting on a better price to get in on UVXY, and this morning price you think we go lower than that?Thanks!
Doubt UVXY goes much lower than that.
We'll just have to see how it shakes out. That may have been the extent of the retracement already.
Probably one last chance for a decent retracement today on UVXY. Next resistance for UVXY $14.5 to $15 or so. After that $20.
Hi,1. I have to admit, percentage wise I find it hard to see UVXY reach $28 if SPX drops only to the 1270's but then again I am open minded. :)I appreciate your posts as usual.2.Do you follow oil at all to see if there are any upcoming opportunities in that space? Tks in advance.
My eventual target for SPX is 1245 by mid-July.Oil has been a good leading indicator. Since it has already dropped severely, I don't think there is too much downside.
SC, you bought your rest position in UVXY?I missed 3.20 entry but eventually bought it at 3.30...all in nowThanks
I missed it this morning, looking for another spot. I won't be too picky since the clock is ticking loudly now....
I thought HVU was going to take off and bought high then stopped out.....now I wait. Bull trap this afternoon?I maintain my earlier thought that the market would bounce today setting things up for Thursday...
like SC said, you wont find much lower prices on HVU or UVXY now until who knows...market is waiting for some decision and when there are uncertainty then you will see more volatility... you 3.51 entry could be higher on today's range but may be good entry in week time...
Heck, no one has a crystal ball but you could be right. I originally thought that the market will head to 1336 first before dropping again, and got swayed by the headlines out of Europe....so now I think I'll stick with that unless some other bizarre headline changes things. The EU summit will be a big failure and good opportunity with HVU.
I actually think the EU summit will be a good thing for the market...so it maybe sell the rumor, buy the news type of deal...we may have a bounce afterward...if it a big bounce or a short live one is another story...hard to predict that far...
SC,what is your take on current market condition?Also did you buy UVXY in latest action?Thanks
Overall the market looks very weak though may bounce a touch more. Still waiting, but not for long.
Hi SCCurious question, you are being very cautious here this time. Is there something else you seeing that may cause this much cautiousness? Just cause you keep mention you still waiting or last chance or dont think it will go much lower with UVXY.Thanks!
No, just waiting to see if it can dip a little.
SC, do you plan an entry today, or will wait till tomorrow morning?thx
Probably today. Sort of a cat and mouse game going on with the market today.
I still think HVU touches $3 again this week....
Hi AfsIf you think that, are you in HVI now?Thanks!
I'm in Cash, waiting to jump back in.....too much sideways action to be on either side....The oversold conditions could cause a pretty nice bounce for a couple of days...
Bought the last 50% at $11.70. Timing running out.
Holding 100% now. It still may dip into the low $11's or something, but just feel that the risk is in missing the boat since my cycles still very negative this week.
This comment has been removed by the author.
I think this sideways zone of the last 6 days is nearly complete.
Going to try an order for $3.20 on HVU...maybe buy 40% on close today...buy the rest the remainder of the week
Filled at 40% at $3.22 HVU.....lets see what tomorrow brings
I kept some powder dry (70% position) just in case, will dive in tomorrow with the rest. Either way, will be out by Friday.
looks like HVU will open lower this morning
It could certainly go lower as futures are flat and there is 1.5% premium built in, however this could change rapidly starting 9:30am.
Market find something to cheer and move higher....no turning in sight...
I think free fall till VIX future reaches 20.50...that will put HVU below 2.80...ooooucchhh...
Hey SC, do you think this market has legs to go higher? Or this is the last of it for another plunge? VIX futures holding up well.Thx
The market is bouncing this morning, but there is a lot of resistance just overhead. UVXY dipped into the low $11 as I thought it might, but actually it is holding well. It is showing relative strength which is something we haven't seen in a while.I like what I see.
I'd agree, but certainly that doesn't prelude anything as often the opposite will happen like the major selloff on the VIX on Friday, while the market was only mildly up.I would suspect thought that we are close enough both in price and time wise to the low that its probably prudent to ensure you have your full position in HVU and UVXY....I just did.
SC whats your max pain SPX? if you have one....thx
I doubt much upside here for SPX. Quite a bit of resistance in the 1330's and very heavy resistance in the 1340's.
SC, can you explain why you think that SPX will fall soon based on a "global macro" point of view ? Thanks
Well there are European meetings on Thurs and Fri. So there are plenty of issues there to sort out. I think people are realizing that there are no shortcuts or easy solutions.
SC, Are you planning to hold UVXY over the weekend and sell it next week? Thanks!
SC, remember in january you called for PM rally and market fall (fear trade), instead everything rallied. How about repeat of that scenario again?
At that time I was confident that the PMs would rally strongly, which they did. I was wrong about the correlation with SPX at that time though. This time I'm confident that the markets fall so that is a difference. I think the PM's rally but not because of any specific correlation to the markets. I'm not relying on any type of correlation. Rather, I'm looking at each separately.
I don't believe the timing is right for markets to rally. This is because numerous of the cycles I work with are pointing down, and they have been working quite well.
AM, I remember that very well and caution should be exercised by all. That said, I do think that things are much more riskier now than then, and with volumes tailing off and risks increasing in Europe, China, etc, this is probably a good bet that the markets tank.As for PM's, I like SC's target of 18.
There is a compelling case for further downside from my point of view. Not only are the cycles negative, but we are seeing some warnings today. For example, VIX up along with SPX.
Have to agree with SC, VIX is UP, SPX is UP....something has to give...IWM is up which support the SPX up case thought...
This could be trap for either VIX or for S & P, of course for short term...VIX is stuck at 22 and attempted multiple times to break but unable to do so...
VIX and SnP still super strong...I guess we may end like this today...
relax peeps ... 2 numbers...1329 is %38 retrace and 1336 %50...that's all it is...closes on either...
Hi SC. Are u expecting the market to pull back now for the next few days? Thx
Hi SCDo you see your dates getting push foward as we still have not start the drop yet? or still sticking with the date July 2 a low. Wondering can you show us your forecast after July 2nd?Thanks!
I do expect to see weakness in the market by July 3rd. It may occur this week and/or early next week. The cycles I use are down until mid July, and turn positive in late July so the market should be under negative pressure for weeks to come. Yes, I have a forecast coming for July.
$spx is at the mid blue pitch fork with a potential head and shoulders patternhttp://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2012/06/phase-2-still-is-proceeding-13336.html
o.k. here goes my spitballin EW wave count... W1 1363-1309=54 W2 1309-1334=25(2pts. from %50) W3 1334-1247=87(54x1.62) W4 1247-1267=20(%23) W5 1267-1213=54(W1=W5)this will probably take a week and a half to play out.good a count as anyone who knows anything...
so in your estimation, we are in wave 3?
$SPX bearish head and shoulders pattern is playing out.http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/
HVU below opening price, not a good sign...unbelievable that during euro summit there is no fear in market!
Vix has been up about 6.5% or more all day... so there is fear, somehow the vix products just don't seem to be benefitting from it.
stockboom, I think come close the $3.40 range will be forgotten and should be north of here...
SC,I am having some doubts now on VIX move, we have tomorrow and weekend and VIX is not moving much here...is this could be trap for VIX? S & P may reach to your target but it is possible that VIX may not move, the way it is behaving right now...what do you think this non performing VIX index?
SC,Well done, your analysis was spot on here.
I'm pleased with the way things are developing. A slow and steady grind up for UVXY to start. The pace should pick up dramatically soon. Over the last week the selloffs in SPX have been "orderly". The panic always sets in later, and there is no bottom until panic occurs.
Do you understand what is happening for precious metals ?
I just see it as a sideways chop. It is encouraging that Gold is holding the May lows.
only thing me and SC differ is direction of PM and market...I always tell him that PM will go lower with S & P and DOW..where he thinks that they will go opposite...will see..I think silver will make new low this time and Gold can sink upto 1450 or something...
I still don't see volume in VIX, which is why I asked could it be that we going to see one more dip in VIX?
is this huge warning? something is wrong with this picture...
I believe the quarter end, month end window dressing is playing out now. If not tomorrow, there should be a crash into first week of July.
SC,Can you comment? becoz I see vix daily chart is again in bearish territory and can sink below 20 again...
Still looks just fine. The VIX is up 2% right now.
it's the wash out to sea before the tsunami comes roaring back on shore...relax people....the ones sweating are the govt. leaders trying to crap liquidity at no expense to public...problem is...that liquid crap is worthless...eeewwww.
Hi SCStill think we are on target for this 1272 +/- around July 2?Thanks!
ScI dont see vix up 2% it in fact close 2% down!
dont know about 2%. but market close with VIX at 19.71, up 0.26 (1.34%) according to CNBC
listen up fellas...you guys need to remember this is a fluid situation and things constatnly in motion.Cycles are NOT exact to the minute turns and burns...you can get a range and through experience look at other indicators and narrow that range even more.sometimes you nail it...sometimes you just wait it out...sometimes you missed it.but time is the one thing man cannot manipulate,alter, inflate or subsidise so accuracy is better than most analysis...but you need all kinds of tools to be the best...SC, you da man!! I read one "guru" calling a top this week, a while back...hate it for his sheep following him off a cliff.any way...relax...it's not TIME yet!!
Hi Stockyardyou sounds pretty confident with SC work, but are you short right now like SC? or hedging?Thanks!
me?? the AAPL picker extraodinaire??? I'm loaded $570 july puts up a measley %45 at present...I'm expecting %300 before it's over...although I may bail out and into something lower cause I don't know who wants to pay $3,000 for one contract.
well did some checking, have to agree with you and SC still:Another indicator: SOXhttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$sox200ma cross on top of the 50ma....hmmm...death cross any one?
Here's another one:$RLX is often a good leading indicator. Check out the double bottom early June with May. Now compare to SPX. SPX made a lower low in early June vs May. RLX was leading up in early June. Now take a look at today. RLX took out the lows - much weaker than SPX. Leading down. NDX was weaker today too.
Sc any chance depending on what happens with the summit tmrw it could actually change the cycles into positive territories?
FWIW...AAPL down $3 A.H. also a lot of stocks on my watch list down A.H. apparently that late run up gonna burn those who bought the run...soooo saaaaaaad.
Definitely cooling after hours. Could be interesting tomorrow.
http://www.cnbc.com/"Stocks finished slightly lower Thursday but staged an impressive comeback in the last half-hour of trading following reports that Germany's Angela Merkel canceled the EU summit's press conference tonight, giving hope to traders that the European leaders are working to form a solution to tackle the region’s ongoing debt crisis."
Rather than a solution, more likely the market takes a tumble judging by these negative cycles and other indicators. The bear case looks solid for weeks into July.
I'm playing for after the first week of July...then the dump. Until then it's manipulation to hasten decay for those holding.
Charles Nenner says 1235 next week...FWIW.
Do you have a link to this? I have received Nenner's reports and he has not mentioned the number in anything I have received.
Started adding on long positions today..July fireworks may begin early.http://tinyurl.com/7wqse4v
I'm calling baloney Zig,the 13th turn down, was more of a low. just look at the 12th & 14th. and perhaps the 29th is a turn higher.but the 28th was the day to be in long, the overnight is meteoricly higher. I seriously can't follow your chart as much as I want to.
Seriously? I've been posting this since last year and I was short in 2011 and went long at the lows back in August and October. It's been working just fine for me. It won't always catch the exact dates and price, but it works great on the bigger trend. Geez, tough crowd.
Great call ZIG!
GG, Here's the baloney chart going back to last year. It's been pretty damn good for me. No baloney here! LOL!http://tinyurl.com/7cevmnh
It's been excellent overall ZZ! Great chart. Simple to follow and effective strategy.
ZIG is looking for an explosion to the upside starting today. SC is looking for a meltdown. Conflicting call indeed.
It is not conflicting from my point of view. I see the ZZ cycle is looking for next high Aug 9th.My own cycles are negative for much of July. However, they do turn positive in late July.So in my view the market can decline for weeks and there is still plenty of time to pop into early Aug. We can both be right.
zz, I can't bring up your chart, how do I access it? Doesn't work when I enter the http address. Thanks
Toni, try this one. If it doesn't work let me know.https://dl.dropbox.com/u/312885/Baloney%20chart%202012-06-29%20at%207.22.00%20AM.png
ZZ, I can't bring it up that way either. Could just be me. Is your cycle high Aug. 9th or in September? Does the chart go past Septermbr?
Toni, try this http://zigzagcycle.blogspot.com/Chart has new highs by September, and I'll know more about what happens next if we do in fact reach that ..I do think we will see new highs by September.
Thanks ZZ, your chart has been on of the sources taht I always consider in trades, Most of the time is RIGHT ON, thanks for sharing that with us and really we are lucky that we have you here.What about after September? what do you see there and after.Thanks,HM
zz, thanks for trying to help me. Still doesn't work. I'm getting someones site called "The Great Bear Market" and other things on bicycling. Has to be just me. Everyone else seems to bring up your chart just fine.
ZZ. I figured it out on the zigzagcycl.blogspot.Aug.9 hi, down to Aug. 28 upt to Sept 25.
S&P Futures Surge 1%, Euro Jumps After Euro Zone Agrees on Bank Supervision, Bond Support (story developing) per cnbc
Wow, glad I stopped out of hvu at $3.31..... Tomorrow it will be under 2.80 or so
We should not be surprised at the bear scorching action overnight today. When Jaytard issued a MELTDOWN WARNING, that's the cue to cover shorts & get long. Can't get any better than that. Thanks, Jay.
Looks like HVU will be down 20% today...well on the bright side "its not the first week of July" yet
Damn thats a brutal move. I guess the correction is over.
Hi SC. Are u still expecting the first week of July to be negative? Thx.
SC,Are we now eyeing for S & P 1370? again?Thanks
Let's see how it acts here around 1350, and will review.
I don't see this as any kind of game changer. S&P is still lower than last week. The cycles I have are negative for next week, and also quite negative mid July. They don't turn positive until late July. So there is plenty of time.
I agree, not a game changer at all, this rally should fade soon when reality sets in...as usual :)VIX future holding up well despite the big jump in SPX
Should I sell UVXY at opening today as euromarkets are well up after Euro news. Feels like UVXY will drop hard today...?Thanks for a very interesting blog bye the way!
consumer sentiments came lowest since December and market is going up?...they are drunk now...
SC,S & P broke 1350 with ease...what next for S & P?Thanks
SC I agree that this seems a little over done but the question is will the market shrug this off a weaken as the day goes by or will we hold the gains and continue to move up. This is a crazy market.
SC, your cycle work had extreme negativity for january 2012 instead we got massive rally. Do you know now why we got exactly the opposite? Were there any flaws in that original assessment or your cycle work simply failed to catch that run up?If something happened once it may happen again.
How much higher are we going today?! Wish I'd stayed long from yesterday :( Now it's just painful.
My original target was 1372 SPX. So from my point of view the potential upside could be 16 points from the high today of 1356. I still like the 1245 target for July so potential downside to my target would then be 127 points. Needless to say I am staying with my positions. My UVXY target also remains the same for July.The charts are coming.
the Operation X on $spx, $indu, $compq:http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/
Hi SC, What is your reason for SP falling at this point? Thank you very much
I am sticking with my charts and cycles which are bearish in July. Many different cycles and patterns are adding up so I consider this a high probability.There are plenty of problems out there. Several companies reported weak earnings yesterday for example.
I agree with you. Thank you for your reply.
Looks like we will close at this high today...this rally is not fizzling...in one hour people will leave the market...
Here is another fuel tank for market...http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-bank-of-england-seen-easing-next-week-2012-06-29?link=MW_home_latest_news
maybe shorts starting to cover or long start to sell off for the weekend, big green volume candle just now and more to come
SC, i appreciate your insight. What are your thoughts on HVU? Many ppl have told me to stay away from triple inverse etfs bcause of the high erosion factor. Do you have any targets for HVU? I know there is more downside into late 3rd quarter and fear usually strikes when we're at the bottom and not while descending...Thanks
I'm holding UVXY which is the equivalent to HVU. For UVXY the target is $28 in July, and for HVU that would be $7.45 roughly.
I think we might get the holiday float into Wed and start descending on Thursday. thoughts?
SC, thanks a lot for your usefull posts.
SC, do you expect higher prices for gold next week ?
Gold has been all over the map lately, but I still like it for next week and probably much of July.
SC, do you think teh UVXY has found a bottom here? would you reccommend buying some today or wait for the low volume on Monday?
Well, it is going to be tough to pinpoint it. I have been saying $9-11 was fair game for a bottom. I do think it is close with little downside. For me this is not a day trade. I'm after big fish on this one.
WOW! who said moves don't go straight up?? a couple days ago, peeps were calling this a head and shoulders...if so...today he's raised his arm and fipped us off. lol...for my money...might as well run it jup 5,6,7 more points and make a double top out of it...triple if you go back to May...I'm with you SC...until I see at least the first week of July...I'm not budgin'...would have been nice to catch a bit of this though...file that in the ol' sell first ask later column about late day yesterday...even if for one day...another one day wonder if you will...catch everybody over the weekend or next week...Exciting times we live in!!!
Yes, June was an exciting month, and July is looking to be even more so....
SS76,Did you sell all your HVU?Thanks
I did, at $2.75 but couldn't resist rebuying at $2.70. I feel the rhetoric will unravel this weekend and we should be close to a bottom
Wow! what an ending...CNBC talking heads are forecasting a bull market, which tells me that we are probably headed lower in July. I've learned to always do the opposite of CNBC and especially Goldman Sachs who recently said to short the market when SPX was close to 1300, lol.
Those traders certainly cleared out plenty of shorts today except for the ones that believe in SC's cycles. Have a great weekend everyone!
at 6/29 close, Phase 3 of Operation X is working fine.and Phase 4, and 5 huge swings to come.i am confident you will like what i have presented on Operation X roadmap, all very clear picture on both huge up and down. http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2012/06/operation-x-phase-3-rally-is-proceeding.html
Guys, check this out:"http://viewonmarkets.blogspot.ca/" interesting blog chart on friday.as well, check this out, we didnt close above recent high of 1363, just made it 1362.16 lol. Them bull tried so hard todday to break that resistance at the very end.well have to see next week. July will rock all of our worlds.
There is a full moon on July 3 which usually means a big move in the opposite direction from the previous day, also, July 13th falls on a Friday which apparantly has some influence on the markets...
ZIGDon't pay any attention to Gold_Gerb. Hes an idiot "wannabe"Hes been a jerk from day one....no one takes him serious! Best, gj
Thanks Gj. :-)
Hey ZZ what is your outlook for UVXY? do you think we reach the $28 target?
Hi Roth. My guess is it won't get that high until after the election. I don't follow UVYX and I could be wrong, but I still think we see new yearly highs in SPX by September or around election time. UVYX looks like it could definitely bounce some soon tho.