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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

$SPX - More Time and Price Required

There is potential for a decent dip in the short term with negative cycles in place today.  However, there are a cluster of trendlines just above, and those are likely to be tested late this week.  A true top may require further time and price. 

Next week, the cycle analysis is negative all week, and extremely negative centered around June 29th.  A top for SPX is still possible early next week though.  Sometimes the market can ignore the negative cycles for a few days, but typically not for long. 

It is early now, but a late June sudden collapse appears practically unavoidable according to many different cycles. 

15min Chart

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93 comments:

  1. RoyJune 20, 2012 at 7:06 AM

    Hi SC
    Are you holding UVXY over the FOMC meeting today?
    Thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 20, 2012 at 7:13 AM

      Most likely - basically playing a short term bounce as I don't believe it has bottomed yet.

      Delete
    2. SCJune 20, 2012 at 7:14 AM

      I'm still in a flexible position.

      Delete
  2. StockboomJune 20, 2012 at 7:13 AM

    SC,

    IF S & P turn from here, I see more into 1320 for S & P instead

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  3. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    Hi SC

    If we do drop before friday, would you get back into XIV and actually hold it over a weekend for this target top?

    Holding over a weekend risky...


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 20, 2012 at 7:28 AM

      It really just depends how things shape up today/tomorrow. I am still interested in XIV, but will also be fairly careful since it is getting "late in the game".

      Delete
    2. SS76June 20, 2012 at 7:32 AM

      Trying to decide what to do with HVI....I think if the bid gets back to $8.80 before 12:30 I'll sell it and buy HVU.....$NYMO as InvestBB pointed out is very overbought..

      Delete
    3. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 7:42 AM

      Look at GLD price today? If QE is suppose to happen, GLD would have been a much higher price before today and this morning (big boy insider would have bought in before announcement)

      Dont know about operation twist matter will be enough juice to bounce the market higher compare to QE...so thinking scenario market doesnt like OT, we pullback according to SC chart pattern temperally.

      If no OT or QE, we will drop rock bottom quick.

      Thanks!

      Delete
  4. AfshaikhJune 20, 2012 at 7:53 AM

    As a Canadian trader would you recommend UVXY or HVU for end of June collapse scenario ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 20, 2012 at 8:03 AM

      Just to be clear as far as this site goes, I show some of my trades and the reasoning using the charts and cycles. Every trader always has to make their own decisions and be responsible for risk management etc...

      There is little difference between these two in terms of performance or % moves. The currency is one difference and another is that pre/after market may be available with UVXY depending on the brokerage firm.

      Delete
  5. SS76June 20, 2012 at 9:37 AM

    where does this UVXY bounce take us SC? how about HVU?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sun_shineJune 20, 2012 at 9:40 AM

      Could we hit $15 on UVXY and $4 on HVU?

      Markets don't seem too happy with the FED statement

      Delete
    2. StockboomJune 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

      SS76,

      It is very hard to follow you! don't know when you are on HVI and when on HVU? I saw your post on SH that you will hold HVU until 12:30 and switch to HVI?

      Can you care to clarify your position?

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. SS76June 20, 2012 at 11:26 AM

      HI Stockboom. Sorry, been in and out of meetings. I Sold HVI this morning at $8.72, bought HVU at $3.37 and sold HVU at $3.49, now looking to buy back HVI again and may have it, bidding $8.75. I believe the market will hit 1380 to top on this leg up and should be able to switch to HVU around $2.75 or so.

      Delete
  6. SCJune 20, 2012 at 9:45 AM

    Tough call on the short term stuff. SPX did hit the orange line and is bouncing. There is some support there but could also possibly fall through later.

    ReplyDelete
  7. StockboomJune 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

    WOOOO....DOW and S & P in green....

    SC, looks like 1370 will touched today...

    ReplyDelete
  8. StockboomJune 20, 2012 at 10:13 AM

    SC,

    Your target of 3.15 hit today on HVU? you think we are close to bottom?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCJune 20, 2012 at 10:15 AM

    We hit the top blue fork. Some resistance there. Tricky spot because these whipsaws are typical.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

    Hi SC

    you still holding your UVXY purchase and waiting on that 15$ bounce? or things have changed?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 20, 2012 at 10:39 AM

      Still holding but only a light position. We're playing ping pong currently but I'm more focused on getting the bigger picture right.

      Still possible that UVXY sees a better short term bounce. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

      Delete
    2. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 10:40 AM

      Hi SC

      Thank you for sharing your trades and hard work.


      Look forward to this bounce.


      Thanks!

      Delete
  11. SCJune 20, 2012 at 12:06 PM

    SPX looks weak. It is back at the orange line and seems that it could see a lower low than earlier today. 1338-40 is a possibility.

    However, UVXY also looks soft and may not make it over the $13 level hit earlier today short term.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 12:13 PM

      Hi SC

      You plan to exit then with your UVXY at aroudn or close to 13$ price range?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCJune 20, 2012 at 12:15 PM

      I may look to sell in the mid-high $12 for a small profit. It doesn't look too promising short term.

      Delete
    3. StockboomJune 20, 2012 at 12:30 PM

      SC,

      Doesn't look like it will give opportunity to sell in mid 12...

      tanking again...

      Delete
    4. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 12:39 PM

      This look like a trap for long end of day for tomorrow dump...

      Delete
  12. SS76June 20, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    Well, my HVI purchase at $8.75 got filled, so happy with this. The guys at Danerics blog are calling for June 25th as a turn date, not much different than SC's take.

    This means we'll see the S&P between 1372 - 1385. HVU will be much lower.

    ReplyDelete
  13. ratandreaJune 20, 2012 at 12:49 PM

    Man, I couldn't change my sell order fast enough to get in UVXY when it breifly touched $13 today. BUMMER! Hope it hits tomorrow or Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  14. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 12:56 PM

    Hi SC

    Had a quick look after Ratandrea mention 13$ today was touched. Did you had a chance to exit there?

    If not, time running out, you holding UVXY overnight?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 20, 2012 at 12:59 PM

      Still holding.

      Delete
    2. SantaJune 20, 2012 at 1:00 PM

      what your take on this end of day action? traps for long?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCJune 20, 2012 at 1:06 PM

      Probably, but we did see a dip into my minimum range for SPX so cannot say for sure.

      Delete
  15. StockboomJune 20, 2012 at 1:09 PM

    VIX futures are falling like rock after market...not looking good for sure tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  16. Markettrends79June 20, 2012 at 2:11 PM

    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    as FED extends Operation Twist to year end, today i present Operation-X for the potential roadmap.
    FED considers Operation Twist as successful as $spx rose from 1074 to 1422 while Operation Twist is performing, so they continue to extend the Operation Twist.

    $vix down more than 6% on the day, near 2 months low.

    ReplyDelete
  17. MakerJune 20, 2012 at 4:08 PM

    OBTW - nice calls, you seem to be nailing thinsg as close as humanly possible!

    ReplyDelete
  18. MakerJune 20, 2012 at 4:12 PM

    SC,

    Does the change in timing for the SPX also imply a change in timing for UVXY? I know timing is hard...just wondering wht you're thinking.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Harry235June 20, 2012 at 4:33 PM

    SC,

    What are your thoughts on oil? Bottom close?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 20, 2012 at 7:59 PM

      Oil just has refused to rally these last few weeks. It's surprisingly low. It is interesting and I will have to look at it closer.

      Delete
  20. dude budJune 20, 2012 at 6:06 PM

    Hey SC, u say the price target should be around 28.50 for uvxy on the spx low 1245, what would that roughly be for hvu?
    Just curious and thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  21. UnknownJune 20, 2012 at 7:05 PM

    Was that manipulation of VIX eod? Seems out of proportion with other market action. Very odd. UVXY from nearly 18 to 11 in less than a week...this bugger can kill ya.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SCJune 20, 2012 at 7:54 PM

    I think what should happen with Gold is that when SPX starts to drop next week, Gold is likely to rise. This week I'm not sure.

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCJune 20, 2012 at 8:05 PM

    I'll have a detailed update on UVXY/XIV soon. Exciting situation.

    ReplyDelete
  24. joedJune 21, 2012 at 3:22 AM

    CRUDE.......

    http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/2755/crude.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  25. SCJune 21, 2012 at 5:21 AM

    It probably will be quiet for the next few days as SPX grinds into a top. My 1372 target looks like it could be a good estimate. Fri/Monday top for SPX makes sense. I have an important update coming with a late June/July plan.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 7:02 AM

    Hi SC

    If we break down and have a dip chance today...would you exit your UVXY and get into XIV, or just exit your UVXY and re-enter it on Friday/Monday, or would you just hold it.

    Any important level you looking at? like 1345?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  27. SCJune 21, 2012 at 7:07 AM

    Just may have a long shot here. If we could get down to 1338-40 SPX I would switch out and into XIV.

    ReplyDelete
  28. dtgJune 21, 2012 at 7:17 AM

    are you still looking for $28 on uvxy

    ReplyDelete
  29. dtgJune 21, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  30. joedJune 21, 2012 at 8:08 AM

    EMINI

    http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/2421/emini.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  31. SCJune 21, 2012 at 8:33 AM

    Looks like a one day wonder on the downside today. Even 1330 SPX or something could be possible here. Still feels like some more to drop in any case.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 8:37 AM

      Hi SC

      we are pretty close to your minimum target of 1340 now...you plan to exit? or wait for another low today?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCJune 21, 2012 at 8:41 AM

      No I'm waiting. I like what I see. Could see $14ish for UVXY potentially.

      Delete
    3. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 8:44 AM

      Hi SC

      wondering if you may know what may HVU be if UVXY around 14ish?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. SCJune 21, 2012 at 8:50 AM

      $3.85 or so roughly.

      Delete
  32. SCJune 21, 2012 at 9:17 AM

    Solid support at 1327-30 SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 9:20 AM

    Hi SC

    still 10 points away from 1330...think we make it there today still or maybe higher chance tomorrow?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  34. SCJune 21, 2012 at 9:22 AM

    Today potentially.

    ReplyDelete
  35. SCJune 21, 2012 at 9:30 AM

    To be clear this dip is not the start of the plunge I've been talking about for next week. After this dip is complete the top for SPX is still to come in a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  36. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 10:27 AM

    Hi SC

    we are very close to your 1330 target...hitting major support at around 1335 here...you still holding UVXY?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 21, 2012 at 10:37 AM

      Yes, still holding as it is still early in the day. I do plan to dump it today, and likely into XIV again.

      Delete
  37. AMJune 21, 2012 at 10:38 AM

    still bullish on gold here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 21, 2012 at 10:40 AM

      Yes, expecting a push into mid July.

      Delete
    2. AMJune 21, 2012 at 10:50 AM

      are you already long or waiting for it to settle down?

      Delete
    3. AMJune 21, 2012 at 10:57 AM

      thank you.

      it does look like we may bounce from low-mid 1500's before another and bigger leg down.

      Delete
    4. SCJune 21, 2012 at 10:59 AM

      No I have no position, waiting. Yes, agree pop first, and then Gold will be in trouble.

      Delete
  38. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 11:02 AM

    Hi SC

    so far amazing calls...we got the drop you looking for...hopefully we bounce back up tomorrow and end the week nicely with your projected plan.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  39. AnonymousJune 21, 2012 at 11:16 AM

    I remember you expected this pull back make UVXY reaching around $15 then pull back to around $9-10 then pop up to $28. But it seems you dump your UVXY around 12. Is my memory wrong or did you change your plan? I don't mean to criticize you but try to follow you. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 21, 2012 at 11:21 AM

      I saw this dip coming for SPX, but so far UVXY has not bounced that well. That is the problem. Time is running out for UVXY. Pick up the pace!!!

      Delete
    2. sun_shineJune 21, 2012 at 11:45 AM

      SC

      Is it possible that since HVU price closed at a premium yesterday (5%), the upside today is limited, i.e it would have been up 20% but due to the built in premium to NAV, its up only 15%?

      I wonder if its the same case with UVXY. just a thought.

      Delete
    3. SCJune 21, 2012 at 11:47 AM

      There is decay too. XIV has a lower low today from yesterday but no higher high for UVXY.

      Delete
  40. pandaJune 21, 2012 at 11:30 AM

    sc, is the top still 1372 on Monday or it is pushed further due to today's action?

    ReplyDelete
  41. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 11:48 AM

    Hi SC

    you still chilling with your UVXY?
    no movement?


    Thank!

    ReplyDelete
  42. SCJune 21, 2012 at 11:50 AM

    Sold my UVXY at $12.57 for small profit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 11:52 AM

      congrats profit is profit ^_^

      not buying XIV yet?

      Delete
    2. SCJune 21, 2012 at 11:55 AM

      I'm debating XIV. Likely not much downside.

      Delete
  43. SCJune 21, 2012 at 11:52 AM

    I may regret if it goes further, but I do see it testing the $10's again or even $9's soon even if it pushes higher first.

    ReplyDelete
  44. SCJune 21, 2012 at 12:14 PM

    Bought XIV at $10.13.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 21, 2012 at 12:38 PM

      Looking for XIV at mid $11 next few days.

      Delete
  45. SS76June 21, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    Good for you SC, thats conviction. I was going to hit the sell on HVI this morning at $9.12 however I didn't. I'll wait till Monday to see how this plays out, one thing I learned is not to panic, and at least on the HVI side I'll get my money back eventually....can't always say that with HVU.

    ReplyDelete
  46. AnonymousJune 21, 2012 at 12:56 PM

    I think Mr. SC you do a GREAT job here!! now something for you to ponder...after the past years('07 to now) turmoil,ups and downs,swans and swings, all various disasters that used to crater a market...today's traders are much more battle tested...hardened to surprise drops or pops,fear has been replaced by caculated re entry or option protection or something to manage one's risk(hedging) thus fear type equities sometimes move erratic to markets....anyway thanks for all you do...my AAPL pie looks tasty today...

    ReplyDelete
  47. SCJune 21, 2012 at 1:04 PM

    Never a dull moment with these markets.

    ReplyDelete
  48. SCJune 21, 2012 at 1:16 PM

    VIX backtesting it's H&S neckline. It could go up a little more tomorrow but should not be much.

    ReplyDelete
  49. MM111June 21, 2012 at 1:37 PM

    whoa brutal down move. We moved past the 1330. Likely to be more down ahead do you think SC?

    ReplyDelete
  50. ratandreaJune 21, 2012 at 1:54 PM

    Thanks, SC, for your call today on UVXY. Didn't hit $14, but close enough to $13 to make me a nice little profit. Up in AH and may go up tomorrow some, but I'm happy with the trade. Thanks again.
    Now time to get in XIV. :)

    ReplyDelete
  51. SantaJune 21, 2012 at 2:37 PM

    Hi SC

    Looking at your forecast there, we broke way below that circle target of 1345 ish. And went lower today to end it at 1325 ish.

    Am wondering does that affect the bounce target at all? like would you consider lowering that target of 1370? like maybe to 1350 instead (difference between 1345 and 1325 around 20 points), if we bounce.

    If not, wondering at what level of spx you consider a stop in place for your XIV in case we continue the sell into the rest of next week?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  52. SCJune 21, 2012 at 3:43 PM

    A while back I mentioned $9.50 as support for XIV. I doubted it would get there after it traded into the $11's this morning. Well most likely, SPX sees just a few more points down in the morning, and XIV may reach that spot.

    ReplyDelete
  53. SCJune 21, 2012 at 3:48 PM

    SPX closed right on that pink fork line. A couple points under that in the morning, and back up we go imo. I'll have to review this 1370 target. It still makes sense to me. Considering my outlook I won't be waiting for the top tick to go short.

    ReplyDelete
  54. SCJune 21, 2012 at 3:50 PM

    I believe at minimum a double top for SPX, and 1370 still looks possible.

    ReplyDelete
  55. SCJune 21, 2012 at 3:55 PM

    I liked this spot for a dip originally. So I am ok with it. My short term outlook is still quite bullish.

    SCJune 19, 2012 5:13 AM
    "Much of my cycle work suggests a dip, and low tomorrow June 20th. I think we could see a dip to 1326-30. That should still be followed by a higher high."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJune 21, 2012 at 3:57 PM

      The weak performance of UVXY tells us this dip is not the start of the plunge I am targeting for later this month.

      Delete

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