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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

$SPX - More Time and Price Required

There is potential for a decent dip in the short term with negative cycles in place today.  However, there are a cluster of trendlines just above, and those are likely to be tested late this week.  A true top may require further time and price. 

Next week, the cycle analysis is negative all week, and extremely negative centered around June 29th.  A top for SPX is still possible early next week though.  Sometimes the market can ignore the negative cycles for a few days, but typically not for long. 

It is early now, but a late June sudden collapse appears practically unavoidable according to many different cycles. 

15min Chart

94 comments:

  1. Hi SC
    Are you holding UVXY over the FOMC meeting today?
    Thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most likely - basically playing a short term bounce as I don't believe it has bottomed yet.

      Delete
    2. I'm still in a flexible position.

      Delete
  2. SC,

    IF S & P turn from here, I see more into 1320 for S & P instead

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi SC

    If we do drop before friday, would you get back into XIV and actually hold it over a weekend for this target top?

    Holding over a weekend risky...


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It really just depends how things shape up today/tomorrow. I am still interested in XIV, but will also be fairly careful since it is getting "late in the game".

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    2. Trying to decide what to do with HVI....I think if the bid gets back to $8.80 before 12:30 I'll sell it and buy HVU.....$NYMO as InvestBB pointed out is very overbought..

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    3. Look at GLD price today? If QE is suppose to happen, GLD would have been a much higher price before today and this morning (big boy insider would have bought in before announcement)

      Dont know about operation twist matter will be enough juice to bounce the market higher compare to QE...so thinking scenario market doesnt like OT, we pullback according to SC chart pattern temperally.

      If no OT or QE, we will drop rock bottom quick.

      Thanks!

      Delete
  4. As a Canadian trader would you recommend UVXY or HVU for end of June collapse scenario ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just to be clear as far as this site goes, I show some of my trades and the reasoning using the charts and cycles. Every trader always has to make their own decisions and be responsible for risk management etc...

      There is little difference between these two in terms of performance or % moves. The currency is one difference and another is that pre/after market may be available with UVXY depending on the brokerage firm.

      Delete
  5. where does this UVXY bounce take us SC? how about HVU?

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    Replies
    1. Could we hit $15 on UVXY and $4 on HVU?

      Markets don't seem too happy with the FED statement

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    2. SS76,

      It is very hard to follow you! don't know when you are on HVI and when on HVU? I saw your post on SH that you will hold HVU until 12:30 and switch to HVI?

      Can you care to clarify your position?

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. HI Stockboom. Sorry, been in and out of meetings. I Sold HVI this morning at $8.72, bought HVU at $3.37 and sold HVU at $3.49, now looking to buy back HVI again and may have it, bidding $8.75. I believe the market will hit 1380 to top on this leg up and should be able to switch to HVU around $2.75 or so.

      Delete
  6. Tough call on the short term stuff. SPX did hit the orange line and is bouncing. There is some support there but could also possibly fall through later.

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  7. WOOOO....DOW and S & P in green....

    SC, looks like 1370 will touched today...

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC,

    Your target of 3.15 hit today on HVU? you think we are close to bottom?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  9. We hit the top blue fork. Some resistance there. Tricky spot because these whipsaws are typical.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi SC

    you still holding your UVXY purchase and waiting on that 15$ bounce? or things have changed?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still holding but only a light position. We're playing ping pong currently but I'm more focused on getting the bigger picture right.

      Still possible that UVXY sees a better short term bounce. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      Thank you for sharing your trades and hard work.


      Look forward to this bounce.


      Thanks!

      Delete
  11. SPX looks weak. It is back at the orange line and seems that it could see a lower low than earlier today. 1338-40 is a possibility.

    However, UVXY also looks soft and may not make it over the $13 level hit earlier today short term.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      You plan to exit then with your UVXY at aroudn or close to 13$ price range?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. I may look to sell in the mid-high $12 for a small profit. It doesn't look too promising short term.

      Delete
    3. SC,

      Doesn't look like it will give opportunity to sell in mid 12...

      tanking again...

      Delete
    4. This look like a trap for long end of day for tomorrow dump...

      Delete
  12. Well, my HVI purchase at $8.75 got filled, so happy with this. The guys at Danerics blog are calling for June 25th as a turn date, not much different than SC's take.

    This means we'll see the S&P between 1372 - 1385. HVU will be much lower.

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  13. Man, I couldn't change my sell order fast enough to get in UVXY when it breifly touched $13 today. BUMMER! Hope it hits tomorrow or Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi SC

    Had a quick look after Ratandrea mention 13$ today was touched. Did you had a chance to exit there?

    If not, time running out, you holding UVXY overnight?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what your take on this end of day action? traps for long?


      Thanks!

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    2. Probably, but we did see a dip into my minimum range for SPX so cannot say for sure.

      Delete
  15. VIX futures are falling like rock after market...not looking good for sure tomorrow...

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  16. http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    as FED extends Operation Twist to year end, today i present Operation-X for the potential roadmap.
    FED considers Operation Twist as successful as $spx rose from 1074 to 1422 while Operation Twist is performing, so they continue to extend the Operation Twist.

    $vix down more than 6% on the day, near 2 months low.

    ReplyDelete
  17. OBTW - nice calls, you seem to be nailing thinsg as close as humanly possible!

    ReplyDelete
  18. SC,

    Does the change in timing for the SPX also imply a change in timing for UVXY? I know timing is hard...just wondering wht you're thinking.

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  19. SC, what about gold ?
    You said it can rise this week. Are you still confident ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think what should happen with Gold is that when SPX starts to drop next week, Gold is likely to rise. This week I'm not sure.

      Delete
  20. SC,

    What are your thoughts on oil? Bottom close?

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    Replies
    1. Oil just has refused to rally these last few weeks. It's surprisingly low. It is interesting and I will have to look at it closer.

      Delete
  21. Hey SC, u say the price target should be around 28.50 for uvxy on the spx low 1245, what would that roughly be for hvu?
    Just curious and thank you.

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  22. Was that manipulation of VIX eod? Seems out of proportion with other market action. Very odd. UVXY from nearly 18 to 11 in less than a week...this bugger can kill ya.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I'll have a detailed update on UVXY/XIV soon. Exciting situation.

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  24. CRUDE.......

    http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/2755/crude.jpg

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  25. It probably will be quiet for the next few days as SPX grinds into a top. My 1372 target looks like it could be a good estimate. Fri/Monday top for SPX makes sense. I have an important update coming with a late June/July plan.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi SC

    If we break down and have a dip chance today...would you exit your UVXY and get into XIV, or just exit your UVXY and re-enter it on Friday/Monday, or would you just hold it.

    Any important level you looking at? like 1345?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Just may have a long shot here. If we could get down to 1338-40 SPX I would switch out and into XIV.

    ReplyDelete
  28. are you still looking for $28 on uvxy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I am confident with that target.

      Delete
  29. EMINI

    http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/2421/emini.jpg

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  30. Looks like a one day wonder on the downside today. Even 1330 SPX or something could be possible here. Still feels like some more to drop in any case.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      we are pretty close to your minimum target of 1340 now...you plan to exit? or wait for another low today?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. No I'm waiting. I like what I see. Could see $14ish for UVXY potentially.

      Delete
    3. Hi SC

      wondering if you may know what may HVU be if UVXY around 14ish?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  31. Solid support at 1327-30 SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Hi SC

    still 10 points away from 1330...think we make it there today still or maybe higher chance tomorrow?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  33. To be clear this dip is not the start of the plunge I've been talking about for next week. After this dip is complete the top for SPX is still to come in a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hi SC

    we are very close to your 1330 target...hitting major support at around 1335 here...you still holding UVXY?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, still holding as it is still early in the day. I do plan to dump it today, and likely into XIV again.

      Delete
  35. still bullish on gold here?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, expecting a push into mid July.

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    2. are you already long or waiting for it to settle down?

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    3. thank you.

      it does look like we may bounce from low-mid 1500's before another and bigger leg down.

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    4. No I have no position, waiting. Yes, agree pop first, and then Gold will be in trouble.

      Delete
  36. Hi SC

    so far amazing calls...we got the drop you looking for...hopefully we bounce back up tomorrow and end the week nicely with your projected plan.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  37. I remember you expected this pull back make UVXY reaching around $15 then pull back to around $9-10 then pop up to $28. But it seems you dump your UVXY around 12. Is my memory wrong or did you change your plan? I don't mean to criticize you but try to follow you. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I saw this dip coming for SPX, but so far UVXY has not bounced that well. That is the problem. Time is running out for UVXY. Pick up the pace!!!

      Delete
    2. SC

      Is it possible that since HVU price closed at a premium yesterday (5%), the upside today is limited, i.e it would have been up 20% but due to the built in premium to NAV, its up only 15%?

      I wonder if its the same case with UVXY. just a thought.

      Delete
    3. There is decay too. XIV has a lower low today from yesterday but no higher high for UVXY.

      Delete
  38. sc, is the top still 1372 on Monday or it is pushed further due to today's action?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hi SC

    you still chilling with your UVXY?
    no movement?


    Thank!

    ReplyDelete
  40. Sold my UVXY at $12.57 for small profit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. congrats profit is profit ^_^

      not buying XIV yet?

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    2. I'm debating XIV. Likely not much downside.

      Delete
  41. I may regret if it goes further, but I do see it testing the $10's again or even $9's soon even if it pushes higher first.

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  42. Replies
    1. Looking for XIV at mid $11 next few days.

      Delete
  43. Good for you SC, thats conviction. I was going to hit the sell on HVI this morning at $9.12 however I didn't. I'll wait till Monday to see how this plays out, one thing I learned is not to panic, and at least on the HVI side I'll get my money back eventually....can't always say that with HVU.

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  44. I think Mr. SC you do a GREAT job here!! now something for you to ponder...after the past years('07 to now) turmoil,ups and downs,swans and swings, all various disasters that used to crater a market...today's traders are much more battle tested...hardened to surprise drops or pops,fear has been replaced by caculated re entry or option protection or something to manage one's risk(hedging) thus fear type equities sometimes move erratic to markets....anyway thanks for all you do...my AAPL pie looks tasty today...

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  45. Never a dull moment with these markets.

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  46. VIX backtesting it's H&S neckline. It could go up a little more tomorrow but should not be much.

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  47. whoa brutal down move. We moved past the 1330. Likely to be more down ahead do you think SC?

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  48. Thanks, SC, for your call today on UVXY. Didn't hit $14, but close enough to $13 to make me a nice little profit. Up in AH and may go up tomorrow some, but I'm happy with the trade. Thanks again.
    Now time to get in XIV. :)

    ReplyDelete
  49. Hi SC

    Looking at your forecast there, we broke way below that circle target of 1345 ish. And went lower today to end it at 1325 ish.

    Am wondering does that affect the bounce target at all? like would you consider lowering that target of 1370? like maybe to 1350 instead (difference between 1345 and 1325 around 20 points), if we bounce.

    If not, wondering at what level of spx you consider a stop in place for your XIV in case we continue the sell into the rest of next week?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  50. A while back I mentioned $9.50 as support for XIV. I doubted it would get there after it traded into the $11's this morning. Well most likely, SPX sees just a few more points down in the morning, and XIV may reach that spot.

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  51. SPX closed right on that pink fork line. A couple points under that in the morning, and back up we go imo. I'll have to review this 1370 target. It still makes sense to me. Considering my outlook I won't be waiting for the top tick to go short.

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  52. I believe at minimum a double top for SPX, and 1370 still looks possible.

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  53. I liked this spot for a dip originally. So I am ok with it. My short term outlook is still quite bullish.

    SCJune 19, 2012 5:13 AM
    "Much of my cycle work suggests a dip, and low tomorrow June 20th. I think we could see a dip to 1326-30. That should still be followed by a higher high."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The weak performance of UVXY tells us this dip is not the start of the plunge I am targeting for later this month.

      Delete