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Sunday, May 20, 2012

XIV - Bullish Setup

This is an excellent bullish setup for XIV into early June.  This week could be choppy with bounces up and down, and retests of the low are likely.  Once it firms up and gains traction, then a spike up to the target zone is anticipated.

Little or no downside is expected for SPX this week, and a sharp rally is imminent for SPX into the same time period. 

60min Chart















UVXY had a strong run and is due to retrace deeply.  The June upside target and analysis will be coming soon. 

60min Chart

76 comments:

  1. I'm not a big fan of FB, but at $33 with bullish SPX charts in place the price is fairly attractive.

    The deal was timed for a bottom in the market imo. FB didn't need a strong market to be oversubscribed. So why not do it at a bottom, and then see it rise along with the markets.

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  2. Xiv finally moving! Bought one day early. Almost back to even. Nice call SC.

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  3. XIV is at the spot marked chop. There probably is not much upside in the next few days short term, and a retest of the low is likely. Soon, I may look to sell and re-enter lower.

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  4. me too bought one day to early...but so far so good! congrats SC for insisting with your call, but still a long way from your XIV entry. Lets see if we are in the right side when the crash comes, not so sure if its worth to risk 80-100 points against 300 drop SPX. Good luck every one!!

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    Replies
    1. XIV time for a few weeks, and then June should be interesting. All the best to you as well.

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  5. Interesting comments made here as well. Thanks SC

    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

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  6. Hi SC

    Wondering what your take on today market action? think we going to go higher or lower tomorrow in your forecast with SPY? cause we already almost reach your targets lol with UVXY


    Thanks!

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  7. In the short run I don't think there is much more to rally. Maybe a little more tomorrow. Then SPX/XIV dip again for a few days.

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  8. ZigZag, this one's for you.
    [/ES]
    http://s14.postimage.org/th5cdlian/oh_wow.png

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    Replies
    1. Looks good GG...Not sure if we make another low though. We had multiple areas align for a low on Friday and I still think we will see new highs by September.

      http://tinyurl.com/6sc884k

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    2. I think another low is possible, just can't be sure if it's a new low, or just a secondary.

      anyways, /ES has been on a cycle back to Feb.
      I'm looking for turn dates of 6/6 & 6/26.

      did I mention I love messing with your charts?
      ;-)
      http://s13.postimage.org/sfztbri6t/May_21_2012.png

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  9. SC , GREEAAATTT WORK!!!! hey but don't forget THE CARDINAL rule of trading....GAPS GET FILLLED!!! look at your UVXY chart and you'll see a hole on May 14...around $15ish...that'll be my target to get in when June rolls around...thanks for all you do...bless you bud!!

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    Replies
    1. Thank you. I see that one. I still think we're in for some chop next.

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  10. AstroCycle predicting downturn into June and miners cycle looking weak.

    http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/

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  11. My friend echen at Humblestudent blog has been providing great cycle work on the markets for years. Please see his work at

    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    marketcycles79

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  12. marketcycles79

    We get YOUR point...............HOW MANY TIMES you gonna pump your site!??? Give us a break! gj

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  13. Sold XIV. There is likely a lower entry coming.

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  14. SC, Could you please ban those who promote their own sites here? Is that possible?

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  15. UVXY hit that white trendline. That may act as support.

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  16. SC, would you enter UVXY for at this stage? Market seem quite bullish today and the housing report has helped. Japan downgrade seems to have no effect.

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  17. UVXY only 40 cents from that red target. I may buy some there.

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  18. I could see UVXY bouncing off of $16.50 area back to $20 or so.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      what time frame you seeing this bounce for UVXY? today? or after this week?


      Thanks!

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    2. It could start to bounce today/tomorrow. I suspect the fast action may slow down.

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  19. SCMay 18, 2012 12:36 PM

    "The reason I'm confident that the market will bounce well out of this low is that my price pattern called for the waterfall move late in April. The market confirmed, and we've seen the waterfall move.

    The pattern also shows the big bounce that comes next, and it is going to be just as surprising."

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  20. your contradicting youself here...you saying UVXY will rise today and tomorrow and same time you expecting market also to go higher and that is too surprising upside? so not sure which side you are on right now.

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. The market is due to retrace short term, but continue to rise overall.

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  21. I HOPE YOU ALL notice that I have NEVER done that here
    Ive only offered brief comments on the mkt;
    Oh
    Some sorry ### SICK puppy has been sending me HAHAHAHA emails
    I sincerely hope its NO ONE FROM HERE !!!

    Thnx
    Jay

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    Replies
    1. Nooooo, why would somebody send you such emails Jay? Can't be because of your claimed 80% success rate surely?

      BTW, did your long get stopped out last Friday?

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  22. 16.51 low is 16.50 and traded there for half a second... wow your good

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    Replies
    1. I was watching that red line closely, and sure enough it bounced off it. Would be nice if things always lined up that way lol!

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  23. no sarcasm... i see time stamp ..great entry

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  24. UVXY came down even faster than I thought it would on the chart. That does have important implications. I think it'll bounce up to around $20 roughly then a lower low in the $15's.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      Congrats on that buy, that is awesome buy.

      Let us make some $.


      Thanks!

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    2. Yes, let's see if we can get into a rhythm here and rack up some trades.

      Delete
  25. so am I dumb to be holding on to my HVI?

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    Replies
    1. I just think the market is due to retrace here short term on the way up overall. So I am just making some short term trades. I'll be back in XIV once UVXY bounces up around that $20.

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  26. UVXY bounced back up to the white trendline. That may provide some resistance for today. Perhaps things settle down here.

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  27. HVU/UVXY seems to be gaining traction again...I;ve made the switch.

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    Replies
    1. SS76, joins, now the party will get started. ^_^



      Thanks!

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  28. the SPX just doesn't smell right......

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  29. now i've sold my HVU for a small gain....help make back some losses....now what to do next?

    SPX was sputtering, but perhaps its rebounding?

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  30. SC,

    Silver looks like all set to test recent low again...what do you see?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. It may have more to retrace short term but I still see it heading higher into June $31-32 area.

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  31. and now I bought it back at $4.81 after selling my $4.76 buy at $4.89.

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  32. ok, sold it at $4.83...too nervous and probably missed a much bigger gain.

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    Replies
    1. SS76,

      I believe SC's first view of UVXY at 10's will come true before this month end, so don't panic...I have noticed SC's very first call is the best one, but rest of his calls are based on his day trading transactions and that is where people get confuse....I always stick with his long term first calls...

      Thanks

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    2. Thanks Stockboom. I will try to remember that. I need to recoup some coin and figure HVI (XIV) is going to be the way to do it. Then switch to HVU and of the month.

      Delete
  33. Replies
    1. SS76, you making them broker rich today LOL.

      am still holding from the buy this morning around 4.75...not selling yet.

      Delete
  34. Ya, if I wasn't so far under water I would be happy.

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  35. Replies
    1. we may see the short term high tomorrow. let see how it goes.

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    2. Sigh, here we go again. Underwater is not a nice feeling on any trade, but HVI so far has not been kind to me.

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  36. I'll wait in cash likely overnight. Probably retrace first then $20.50 or so.

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  37. Thanks guys. I'm happy with that for today. Nice way to start the week.

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  38. Replies
    1. Hi SC

      quit buying all the good entry LOL. jking.

      congrats on another awesome entry.


      Thanks!

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  39. Replies
    1. Stocks Turn Lower, Euro Falls as Former Greek PM Papademos Says Preparations for Greece Euro Exit Being Considered (Click for story)

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    2. also drop ended on the %50 retrace of the first measured leg...36 SNP points to 1328 - 18 = 1310
      and shot up at the close...1317. now a run to 1368 should play out...36 X 1.62 = 58.3 + 1310 (bottom) = 1368.. let's seee.

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  40. Looks like market is following sharp drop in Euro on close.
    Tomorrow's open will be telling...

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  41. I think if Greece leave Europe, then Euro will go higher...since bad apple is out they have better handle on Euro..agreed? just my thinking...

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  42. SC the dollar seems to be holding Gold back right now, what are your thoughts on the two of them?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the dollar has been a dominant force in May. I don't think the dollar has much more upside in the near term though. Later in the year it can go much higher.

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  43. Sad SC you dont use twitter, would have been nice to see your intraday trade, that was a perfect entry-exit on uvxy, congrats!!

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