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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

$SPX - Bottom Near

The low is very close, and the bounce that follows this will be impressive.  Minimal downside is still possible, but there is powerful support just underneath. 

Price will rocket back up off the low to test near the highs again.  The market is currently in a whipsaw phase. 

Daily Chart
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19 comments:

  1. SCMay 15, 2012 at 10:13 PM

    When I have seen the market continue to decline a little further after positive cycles have begun, then the result is that it snaps back up like an elastic.

    Yes, we could still see a touch lower first, but the bounce will surprise...

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  2. SamiMay 15, 2012 at 11:01 PM

    SC based on your charts where abouts do you see the short term low for silver? Do you see it going below 26 in the next few days?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. SCMay 16, 2012 at 5:49 AM

      Right around this $27 looks good for Silver Sami.

      Delete
  3. HammermanMay 16, 2012 at 5:21 AM

    Hi Sc,
    Well USD touched 81.57, its upper trend line from the 2002 top. If it breaks through it's clear sailing to 87 at a minimum I think (assuming no Fed intervention) and then I'm out of PM's. The fractile picture is very similar to January 1997 USD take-off (15-17 yr USD long term cycle).
    "If" USD bounces south here, i don't think it will be a strong bounce given the Euro calamity.

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    Replies
    1. SCMay 16, 2012 at 5:55 AM

      Thanks. That makes sense. I think metals bounce here, top out in June and then down more.

      Charts coming.

      Delete
  4. SantaMay 16, 2012 at 8:40 AM

    Hi SC

    curious to know your thought, market up, VIX is up? shouldnt VIX be down?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  5. SCMay 16, 2012 at 8:48 AM

    The spot VIX is lower than yesterday. The VIX futures are slightly higher this morning.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaMay 16, 2012 at 8:51 AM

      Hi SC

      doesnt that mean we will get more down side in the near future if VIX future is higher?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCMay 16, 2012 at 8:55 AM

      Not necessarily. I think we need to give it a little time here and see how the market settles.

      Delete
    3. SantaMay 16, 2012 at 9:54 AM

      Hi SC

      wondering what you think would be the trigger for this bounce? beside Facebook (which Cramer beat it down pretty hard to everyone not to buy it on day 1 and GM just took out their ads payment)

      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. SCMay 16, 2012 at 10:13 AM

      Well I'm going off the charts and cycles. The Facebook IPO seems to be going just fine despite the media downplaying it. The Greek issues also seem to be delayed until June elections.

      Delete
    5. SantaMay 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

      Hi SC

      are you still in XIV heavy? what level was it again?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    6. SCMay 16, 2012 at 10:28 AM

      Yes, I'm going to let it play out here since the market is near a turn imo. I figure even if it comes down a little more, I'll just wait and sell it on the bounce.

      Delete
  6. Harry235May 16, 2012 at 12:08 PM

    SC,

    I am going long some GLD calls today. I am betting GLD will be at $170 by the 4th of July. What are your thoughts?

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    Replies
    1. SCMay 16, 2012 at 12:15 PM

      Yes, I like Gold and Silver here for a bounce. June or early July high looks about right.`

      Delete
  7. SamiMay 16, 2012 at 12:09 PM

    Sc do you have any silver charts coming?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 16, 2012 at 12:16 PM

      Yes, coming today. I am expecting Silver to bounce $3-4 from this level.

      Delete
  8. AnonymousMay 16, 2012 at 12:26 PM

    http://news.yahoo.com/run-greek-banks-looks-180100901.html

    ReplyDelete
  9. SantaMay 16, 2012 at 5:28 PM

    Hi SC

    Not sure if you saw it, but it looks like we have an inverted hammer formed in today SPY daily chart. But not sure if this could be the turning point still, or we have further downside. Lot of bear wants 1290, 1300 or 1313 to finish this down trend. We went to a low of 1325ish today, which match what your original target 1326 pretty close there. If we bounce, you will be spot on.

    Good luck, keep up the good work.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete

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