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Thursday, May 17, 2012

$SPX - Bottomed

The low is likely in place now with the pink fork line hit this morning (as shown in the last SPX analysis).  The bounce off this level is anticipated to be quite powerful into late May. 

30min Chart
 

72 comments:

  1. Good call again SC.

    What do you think is the short term upside target range for the bounce in SPX. Also the downside for HVU/UVXY.

    Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. Big bounce next for SPX to approx 1375. That should bring UVXY back down to $15-16 area.

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    2. I'm still targeting $28-30 for UVXY in June. So once it settles it will present a nice opportunity.

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    3. 'Good call' ? 'Again' ? sun_shine dude what have you been smoking? How do you know that 'SPX - Bottomed' is a 'good call'?

      As for 'again', the last call was for very positive cycles all of last week. If you were long, anticipating such 'positive cycles all week', how would your account look at the end of the week?

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  2. I think bounce from around 1295-1300 up to 1345 area on the SPx...

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  3. SC .. out of curiosity what is your taget for the lows this year or early 2013.

    is the 1040 or 980 still standing or were there changes to your cycles?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. The next bear market low is going to be in the 925-75 area from my work. Same plan as always.

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    2. No, June looks weak for the markets, but we're still in a choppy phase at the top. I see this as a topping process with the market to resolve into a bear market this year.

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  4. SC,

    Are you targeting UVXY below 10 sometime in early june or 15 will be the last stop?

    I remember you mentioned that it will go to below 10 by early june.

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. No, it seemed there might be a lower low, but that is not going to happen. So short term XIV looks attractive, and then will switch to UVXY for a big move in June.

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    2. Hi Stockboom

      Looks like he has to change the plan. since UVXY move so high and XIV drop so low.

      XIV original plan was around 13.
      UVXY original plan was around 10.

      XIV now plan is 11 ish.
      UVXY now plan is 15-16 ish.



      Thanks!

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    3. Interesting to see the HVU is around the same place it was the last time it topped, around 5.70-5.80. Let's see if this the short term top again this time.

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    4. Exactly, and another indication of markets bottoming. The last time UVXY was at this level was April 10th when the S&P was 1358.

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    5. VIX future chart is way overbought today and it is quite possible that this will pull back shortly....

      Let's see, I am crying for selling my HVU for stupid day trade and never had the balls to pick up again!...wish I could get HVU below $ 4....

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  5. Fitch cut Greece to CCC on possible exit from EU...more blood...what next?

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    Replies
    1. The Greek gloom is likely to subside until the elections in June.

      I think we'll see 1350 very soon, and 1375 is where it should struggle again.

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  6. VIX future chart is way overbought today and it is quite possible that this will pull back shortly....

    Let's see, I am crying for selling my HVU for stupid day trade and never had the balls to pick up again!...wish I could get HVU below $ 4....

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    Replies
    1. Don't worry the larger move is still yet to come in June. So that is the silver lining.

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    2. dont know if we will see HVU back at below 4$ again. may have to get in around 4.5 lowest I feel...If we bounce, and hard, ton of late bull will sell...cant see a big bounce that will last...your thought SC?

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    3. We're going to see a big bounce for the market here. There is no doubt.

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  7. SC,

    Does VIX and PM's are moving in same direction? what is your short term target here for Silver?

    Thanks

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  8. Ok looking and charting Fibo analysis on VIX future, from Sept 2011 high till recent low, this upleg is reaching to 38.5% retracement, so likely will pull back starting from tomorrow...may be to 21 first and as low as 19 on VIX future...

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    Replies
    1. NYMO is so over sold, dang.

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    2. SPX is set to rocket out of this low, sling shot style.

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    3. lol SC, you got a sense of humor too. Awesome.

      hope it get shot up and not down. lol



      Thanks!

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  9. I still see new highs by September..

    http://tinyurl.com/d4g6mxp

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  10. Just cracked 1298 in ES...a sign for further weakness O_o

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  11. Weve moved:

    http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/119/

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  12. Definitely a bear trap here. I'm targeting SPX around 1350 next week, and 1375 around the end of the month.

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    Replies
    1. Looks good to me,SC.I think we may top just after 3 day holiday.

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  13. Hi SC

    with UVXY around 15 to 16, wondering if you may know what HVU will be about?

    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. That would be in the $4.15-4.40 area.

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  14. SC, do you think its possible for metals to get rejected from this area and put in lower low in the coming week? Does this look like a bear trap for PM's?

    thank you.

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    Replies
    1. They may retrace somewhat, but the recent low should hold for Silver and Gold. I think Silver is heading for $31-32 and that is the spot to watch for rejection.

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    2. thanks. so 31-32 and then target new lows in late 2012. 18/oz or lower?

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    3. I want to see how it acts at $31-32. That is a spot it could fail on this bounce. Yes, later this year it is heading much lower imo. It could be the best commodity short of the year, but it is important to see how it acts at that level first.

      Once it breaks $26 it is game over.

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  15. VIX futures are going nuts here....looks like will touch 27 anytime now...

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  16. ZIG

    What year is your chart based on..............and can you comment on why you picked that year? As always thanks in advance! gj

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  17. VIX future almost touched 27...now what?

    Anyone knows where to check spot? I think spot could be in 25 area.

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  18. Just wondering what the downside might be for XIV - currently at $8.88 in your opinion thx

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    Replies
    1. It doesn't look like much if anything. Should see quite a good bounce on it next week.

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  19. Currently VIX down 3.35% and XIV (inverse) down 3.70%.
    It would be a lot easier if we could trade the actual VIX.

    VIX spot can be checked at this link:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=t43172443093&r=1335401843828

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    Replies
    1. Looking at the chart it is clear now that VIX spot will touch atleast 200 days Moving average which stands around 25.77...man that is another 10% or some that will be 20% or more for HVU and UVXY...

      Am I reasonable in believing that VIX spot will reach there?

      Thanks

      Delete
  20. Is this news going to keep pushing VIX higher and higher?

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/JP-Morgan-unit-has-100bn-of-risky-bonds-report-pd20120518-UE2U7?OpenDocument&src=rab

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  21. The VIX will settle down first for 2 weeks, then spike again sharply in June.

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  22. F'me, I'm down huge on HVI now.....bought at $8.72 and wondering if I'm going to get my money back!

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    Replies
    1. Hi SS76

      some how I dont think we will see a bounce anytime soon, especially not end of today, since who is going to hold their long over a long weekend? Come Tuesday, could be more selling if people seeing FB crash in AH today. Just my thought. But all technical is pointing a bounce.


      Thanks!

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    2. well, the thing is now it looks like 1300 is a huge ass resistances. It will take a miracle(manipulation from wall st, normally happens lol) to break that resistance and go to 1350+. I would pray FB doesnt get sell of in AH today. Cause all the hype on FB was able it being a bullish move for the bull, but so far, it not looking like the light. There is just too many insider selling on day 1, which give a bad image for the company already...

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    3. Don't worry SS. I have a plan for next week. There is a way to fix this trade, and I have some good news too. I'll explain with the charts.

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    4. I'm sitting tight over the weekend.

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  23. Wall St. timed the FB IPO for near a bottom in the market.

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  24. SC,

    HVU is up more then 100% in one week, how we are going to see $ 4 on HVU within next week or so, specially when no good news is coming or around corner?

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    Replies
    1. The market is going to do well for the next 2 weeks.

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  25. Is it better to sell XIV today and buy back in next week or do you see a bounce on Monday? thx

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    Replies
    1. I'm holding for a bounce, and have a plan for next week which I will outline with charts.

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  26. The reason I'm confident that the market will bounce well out of this low is that my price pattern called for the waterfall move late in April. The market confirmed, and we've seen the waterfall move.

    The pattern also shows the big bounce that comes next, and it is going to be just as surprising.

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  27. Really hope you are right.....1350 - 1375 would be just fine for me!

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  28. SC, The price action looks eerily similar to the 87 right before the crash. Could you comment on this?

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    Replies
    1. can you elaborate? What last post are you referring to.

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  29. Panda,

    I have seen the 87 pattern, and no it does not fit with the current situation. I am bearish later in the year, but we will test the highs before that occurs.

    We always have to be careful with fractals because while they look the same on the surface the end results are different.

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  30. Thanks, SC. Is there any guideline that will help us to pick the right fractals?

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    Replies
    1. The trick with patterns is always to figure out which pattern will confirm and follow through. The only way to differentiate is to combine with other methods of analysis.

      Specifically in terms of 87, the market rallied strongly for years into the high before the collapse. In this case the rally has only been since Oct. So the market won't have the level of exhaustion to fall as in 87.

      My outlook for the year is bearish, but we're going to see a rally and some more whipsaws before it falls.

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  31. Zigzag, your chart shows the April low holding, but that hasn't happened with this latest move down.

    Are you reconsidering the chart you are following?

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  32. We're still following this one pretty close and it's not going to be exactly the same. The uptrend should take us higher by September.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the timing looks good. Thanks ZZ. The summer months look calm to me then drop into a major bear market.

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