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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

UVXY - Choppy Phase Continues

Today, UVXY hit the red target at $16.50, and rocketed higher again.  That price level proved to be solid support.  The fact that the target was hit early suggests a lower low may be still yet to come. 

Therefore, price action appears to be in a whipsaw phase.  Some minimal upside could be possible first.  Yet another significant decline perhaps near the green oval seems to be setting up to follow.

60min Chart















The following is the chart from May 20th analysis with the red target shown at $16.50 (hit today).

60min Chart
Posted by at

68 comments:

  1. AnonymousMay 22, 2012 at 9:59 PM

    yeah...I'm holdin my TNA til UVXY gets to that gap then swappin into it. if we b a C ...maybe 1346...if we b a 3 ...then 1368 sounds good.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCMay 23, 2012 at 6:16 AM

    Silver should firm up soon around this level for a run into June $31-32.

    ReplyDelete
  3. GSKMay 23, 2012 at 6:37 AM

    SC: do you think XIV will go higher in the next few weeks still or do think it will still be choppy...thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 23, 2012 at 6:44 AM

      The target for XIV is around $10.45 in a week and a half.

      It may take a day or 2 to firm up down here. Some downside is possible but doubt there is much.

      Delete
  4. SS76May 23, 2012 at 7:27 AM

    Silver is looking real interesting right now. Big drop, perhaps opportunity?

    sold half HVI at a loss, and bought HZU at $4.33.

    ReplyDelete
  5. StockboomMay 23, 2012 at 7:46 AM

    I think silver is pointing at around 26.80 before it turn around.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SS76May 23, 2012 at 7:51 AM

      Well, I think this drop is steep enough, and picked up more at $4.29 for an average of about $4.31.

      Delete
    2. StockboomMay 23, 2012 at 7:52 AM

      agree good entry around this level, was just talking about intraday low

      Delete
    3. SS76May 23, 2012 at 8:01 AM

      ah, got ya.

      Delete
  6. SCMay 23, 2012 at 8:10 AM

    $8.60 looks solid to be support for XIV, maybe bounce to $9.25 or so next.

    ReplyDelete
  7. joedMay 23, 2012 at 8:21 AM

    GOLD 240 MIN

    http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/6562/gold240min.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  8. SCMay 23, 2012 at 8:24 AM

    Probably things calm down and relatively sideways trade into next week.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AMMay 23, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    SC, Au/Ag making lower lows in other currencies does not bother you?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 23, 2012 at 9:57 AM

      I think the dollar rally looks just about finished so Gold/Silver should be ok. I guess another way to look at it is that the dollar made a higher high today, but Silver/Gold still have a higher low today.

      Delete
    2. AMMay 23, 2012 at 9:59 AM

      SC, gold and silver penetrated december lows in GBP.

      Delete
    3. SCMay 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

      Ok, thanks.

      Delete
  10. joedMay 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

    GOLD 5 MIN

    http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9561/gold5min.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  11. StockboomMay 23, 2012 at 10:30 AM

    Any comments on this?

    Wednesday, May 23, 10:13 AM The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recorded $897M in outflows yesterday, the largest decline since August 2011. Commerzbank wants to see more days of outflows, but says it's surely a negative if even ETF investors are caught up "in the selling pull." More: Central GoldTrust (CTU) now trades at a discount to NAV vs. an average 3.4% premium over the past year.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCMay 23, 2012 at 11:14 AM

    Gold miners have held well the last few days. This should be a good sign for Gold going forward.

    ReplyDelete
  13. StevenMay 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

    SC:
    Are you selling XIV at 9.25?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 23, 2012 at 12:33 PM

      $9.25-35 could be a spot of resistance that I may unload and step aside. Let's see how things shape up here next.

      Delete
    2. SantaMay 23, 2012 at 12:37 PM

      Hi SC

      you dont think we will explode overnight? and gap up tomorrow?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  14. SCMay 23, 2012 at 12:41 PM

    Sold XIV at $9.30.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ZigZagMay 23, 2012 at 12:59 PM

    Likely SPX big cycle low
    http://tinyurl.com/6q7ssvo

    Zoomed in.
    http://tinyurl.com/7tx6u68

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold_GerbMay 23, 2012 at 7:15 PM

      nice.
      this week would make a perfect double bottom post hole.

      maybe the Venus retrograde will work positively.

      Delete
  16. joedMay 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

    Gold 5 MIN

    How it came out............

    http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/864/gold5bothcyc.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  17. Harry235May 23, 2012 at 3:15 PM

    SC,

    It would appear that the markets are expecting QE3 very soon imo. The late day move was very impressive with the dollar being strong. I do believe that gold and the miners have been sniffing this out for the last week. What are your thoughts? I suspect we see gold north of $1800 by the 4th of July imo.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Gold_GerbMay 23, 2012 at 7:18 PM

    to the guy who called me Larry Holmes.
    Muhammad Ali has nothing on me.
    ;-)
    http://s17.postimage.org/akgry1k19/interlock.png

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCMay 23, 2012 at 9:44 PM

    Yes, it was a nice reversal for Gold late in the session. Looks like it is going higher. I have Gold/Silver analysis coming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AMMay 24, 2012 at 6:48 AM

      SC, but you really don't know for sure that this was the bottom for gold. There were so many bad calls already for metals (not pointing at you, most can't get it right). Yes COT looks bullish and there seems to be buying (by whom and with what purpose..) in this area but its still possible to have a nice panic sell leading to sub 1500 prices. Your timing, as you know, is far from perfect for metals so far (again not blaming you, just stating the fact)

      Delete
    2. SS76May 24, 2012 at 7:03 AM

      Sold HZU at $4.69 and bought HVU at $5.29

      Delete
    3. SCMay 24, 2012 at 7:07 AM

      Well, ultimately I am a bear for Gold and Silver this year. So while a bounce looks likely to me here, I don't think it makes sense to fall in love with them either.

      Delete
    4. SS76May 24, 2012 at 7:37 AM

      Stopped out of HVU at $5.31 and bough HVI at $7.58

      Delete
  20. KlaatuMay 24, 2012 at 7:06 AM

    Markets still vulnerable to Euro (FXE).Although looks like Euro trying to hold here.Pre-Memorial day favors upside,but 3day weekend exposure to Europe may temper buying,imho.I think you see a pop into next week,SC. Does that still hold?

    ReplyDelete
  21. SCMay 24, 2012 at 7:11 AM

    Yes agree, I think we can see a moderate rally into early next week. Likely calmer markets for a few days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KlaatuMay 24, 2012 at 7:20 AM

      Thanks SC for all your inputs. Have a great trading day.

      Delete
    2. SCMay 24, 2012 at 7:25 AM

      Thank you, you too!

      Delete
  22. SS76May 24, 2012 at 7:16 AM

    What does moderate look like to you SC? S&P heading to 1375 next week?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 24, 2012 at 7:25 AM

      I do see a strong rally coming up to that level, but that probably will not start for another week.

      The market could dip today, then moderate rally into early next week imo.

      Delete
    2. SS76May 24, 2012 at 8:45 AM

      Fear is so difficult to play.....HVU up 5% and the S&P still barely positive...

      Delete
    3. SantaMay 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

      Hi SS76

      you in your HVI position still?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. SS76May 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

      no, chickend out.

      Delete
  23. KlaatuMay 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

    FXE 2 ticks away from low of year(125.75), but SPY hanging tough. If Euro can hold here or even rally we could see a nice close on SPY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KlaatuMay 24, 2012 at 10:51 AM

      New low in SPY followed new yearly low in FXE.
      Cash Euro so far has held the overnight low...but getting close

      Delete
  24. SCMay 24, 2012 at 11:02 AM

    Bought XIV at $8.90.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMay 24, 2012 at 11:05 AM

      I'm thinking maybe it can pop to $9.60 or so next few days.

      Delete
  25. SS76May 24, 2012 at 11:20 AM

    Bought HZU at $4.59.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SCMay 24, 2012 at 11:22 AM

    Likely quiet into the long weekend. I think a moderate rally for SPX into Tues.

    ReplyDelete
  27. KlaatuMay 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

    Euro held last night's low. Firmed up on news of a Greek poll showing 85% of Greeks are in favor of Euro. Some polls are also indicating far left losing support..If we start to move above 1333 SPX we could fly...I'm looking for sell off into 3:00 +/- then a strong close..and then follow SC's script for quiet moderate rally.

    ReplyDelete
  28. SS76May 24, 2012 at 1:49 PM

    SC, nice HVI buy today. Well done.

    ReplyDelete
  29. StockboomMay 25, 2012 at 9:08 AM

    Why no one has commented today?

    ReplyDelete
  30. SS76May 25, 2012 at 9:35 AM

    Was wondering the same thing. Bought HVU at $5.22 today, stop loss at $5.15.

    ReplyDelete
  31. SantaMay 25, 2012 at 9:40 AM

    Hey Stock and SS

    what new?

    think ppl went on long break already...i got in HVU at 5.22 as well...didnt like the action so left at 5.25...penny gain...

    waiting for some thing to happen now....or just hold cash...it will be even SLOWER on monday for canadian market lol

    ReplyDelete
  32. SS76May 25, 2012 at 10:01 AM

    I think I'll hold it providing it doesn't drop to my stop at $5.15.....just feel like the market is going to sell off. I missed these big runs thanks to flipping for a small gain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaMay 25, 2012 at 10:11 AM

      i am thinking we will see a intraday bounce soon...then sell off into close...just for fun..

      or we just close flat, due to lack of volume...

      think the drop wont happen till next week...

      been holding on to support at 1318 all day so far...unless we break that...hard to see a sell off today...oh and I think we need volume to break 1318 to confirm the sell off, otherwise it is a dip buy (since we dont have volume today, hard to see much going to happen downside)...


      SC, your thought on today?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  33. StockboomMay 25, 2012 at 10:24 AM

    Ok Guys,

    I think most of the people here are ignoring big thing which is going to happen this weekend, that is decision of Greece to stay in Euro or announce new currency...and that decision will drive the market, so let's say if they decide to stay in Europe market will jump big time coming monday tuesday, since Monday is US holiday it is likely will be tuesday, and if they announce new currency then look below much below...

    Now you put your bets on which will be likely scenario for market.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaMay 25, 2012 at 10:34 AM

      I bet they wont leave yet...doubt big decision to leave would be made before June election...place your bet?

      Delete
    2. SS76May 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

      What vote this weekend? I can't find anything on this???

      Delete
  34. StockboomMay 25, 2012 at 10:39 AM

    SS76,

    My above comments were for you in particular since you are thinking of keeping HVU over the weekend.

    Hope this helps to make your decision.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  35. SS76May 25, 2012 at 11:23 AM

    Thanks stockboom.....so is there some sort of vote this weekend?

    ReplyDelete
  36. SantaMay 25, 2012 at 12:12 PM

    hmm seeing what i am talking about? 1318 a support they try to break down below it, but no volume...bounced back above it...interesting over the weekend for sure.

    i agree with SC that we will see XIV bounce to 9.6 ish soon. maybe early next week.

    ReplyDelete
  37. SS76May 25, 2012 at 12:22 PM

    I'm out of HVU. I think I'll wait to see what unfolds next week rather than hold anything over the weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  38. StockboomMay 25, 2012 at 12:22 PM

    Just type in Greek Exit on google and you will see tons of reading...

    ReplyDelete
  39. SS76May 25, 2012 at 12:32 PM

    I did, but none of the stories I see mention a vote this weekend....can you point me to one?

    Bought HVI at $7.61.....will decide before close if I am going to hold it.

    ReplyDelete
  40. StockboomMay 25, 2012 at 1:05 PM

    SS76, Is there any reason that you have to hold something? LOL man you need to chill out...no one knows how things will fly next week...

    ReplyDelete
  41. SS76May 25, 2012 at 1:11 PM

    Ya, fear of missing the big move, lol. I do think that short term is up so that is why but I do change my mind TOO often.

    Have a great weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  42. AnonymousMay 25, 2012 at 5:51 PM

    buckle up boys... i'm looking at ascending triangle on TNA targeting $51.35 as well as a symmetrical(sloppy) triangle on UVXY targeting $14.50ish...all signs point to a pop to break out of each...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. mike cMay 26, 2012 at 3:42 PM

      Wow you sound super Bull,where's AAPL
      price 590? Also I agree short term

      Delete

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