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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

UVXY - Choppy Phase Continues

Today, UVXY hit the red target at $16.50, and rocketed higher again.  That price level proved to be solid support.  The fact that the target was hit early suggests a lower low may be still yet to come. 

Therefore, price action appears to be in a whipsaw phase.  Some minimal upside could be possible first.  Yet another significant decline perhaps near the green oval seems to be setting up to follow.

60min Chart















The following is the chart from May 20th analysis with the red target shown at $16.50 (hit today).

60min Chart

70 comments:

  1. yeah...I'm holdin my TNA til UVXY gets to that gap then swappin into it. if we b a C ...maybe 1346...if we b a 3 ...then 1368 sounds good.

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  2. SC, what is the price for silver that you are looking for before going long ?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Silver should firm up soon around this level for a run into June $31-32.

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    2. Silver is looking real interesting right now. Big drop, perhaps opportunity?

      sold half HVI at a loss, and bought HZU at $4.33.

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  3. SC: do you think XIV will go higher in the next few weeks still or do think it will still be choppy...thx

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    Replies
    1. The target for XIV is around $10.45 in a week and a half.

      It may take a day or 2 to firm up down here. Some downside is possible but doubt there is much.

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  4. I think silver is pointing at around 26.80 before it turn around.

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    Replies
    1. Well, I think this drop is steep enough, and picked up more at $4.29 for an average of about $4.31.

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    2. agree good entry around this level, was just talking about intraday low

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  5. $8.60 looks solid to be support for XIV, maybe bounce to $9.25 or so next.

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  6. GOLD 240 MIN

    http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/6562/gold240min.jpg

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  7. Probably things calm down and relatively sideways trade into next week.

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  8. SC, Au/Ag making lower lows in other currencies does not bother you?

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    Replies
    1. I think the dollar rally looks just about finished so Gold/Silver should be ok. I guess another way to look at it is that the dollar made a higher high today, but Silver/Gold still have a higher low today.

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    2. SC, gold and silver penetrated december lows in GBP.

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  9. GOLD 5 MIN

    http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9561/gold5min.jpg

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  10. Any comments on this?

    Wednesday, May 23, 10:13 AM The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recorded $897M in outflows yesterday, the largest decline since August 2011. Commerzbank wants to see more days of outflows, but says it's surely a negative if even ETF investors are caught up "in the selling pull." More: Central GoldTrust (CTU) now trades at a discount to NAV vs. an average 3.4% premium over the past year.

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  11. Gold miners have held well the last few days. This should be a good sign for Gold going forward.

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  12. SC:
    Are you selling XIV at 9.25?

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    Replies
    1. $9.25-35 could be a spot of resistance that I may unload and step aside. Let's see how things shape up here next.

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    2. Hi SC

      you dont think we will explode overnight? and gap up tomorrow?


      Thanks!

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  13. Likely SPX big cycle low
    http://tinyurl.com/6q7ssvo

    Zoomed in.
    http://tinyurl.com/7tx6u68

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    Replies
    1. nice.
      this week would make a perfect double bottom post hole.

      maybe the Venus retrograde will work positively.

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  14. Gold 5 MIN

    How it came out............

    http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/864/gold5bothcyc.jpg

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  15. SC,

    It would appear that the markets are expecting QE3 very soon imo. The late day move was very impressive with the dollar being strong. I do believe that gold and the miners have been sniffing this out for the last week. What are your thoughts? I suspect we see gold north of $1800 by the 4th of July imo.

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  16. to the guy who called me Larry Holmes.
    Muhammad Ali has nothing on me.
    ;-)
    http://s17.postimage.org/akgry1k19/interlock.png

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  17. Yes, it was a nice reversal for Gold late in the session. Looks like it is going higher. I have Gold/Silver analysis coming.

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    Replies
    1. SC, but you really don't know for sure that this was the bottom for gold. There were so many bad calls already for metals (not pointing at you, most can't get it right). Yes COT looks bullish and there seems to be buying (by whom and with what purpose..) in this area but its still possible to have a nice panic sell leading to sub 1500 prices. Your timing, as you know, is far from perfect for metals so far (again not blaming you, just stating the fact)

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    2. Sold HZU at $4.69 and bought HVU at $5.29

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    3. Well, ultimately I am a bear for Gold and Silver this year. So while a bounce looks likely to me here, I don't think it makes sense to fall in love with them either.

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    4. Stopped out of HVU at $5.31 and bough HVI at $7.58

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  18. Markets still vulnerable to Euro (FXE).Although looks like Euro trying to hold here.Pre-Memorial day favors upside,but 3day weekend exposure to Europe may temper buying,imho.I think you see a pop into next week,SC. Does that still hold?

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  19. Yes agree, I think we can see a moderate rally into early next week. Likely calmer markets for a few days.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks SC for all your inputs. Have a great trading day.

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  20. What does moderate look like to you SC? S&P heading to 1375 next week?

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    Replies
    1. I do see a strong rally coming up to that level, but that probably will not start for another week.

      The market could dip today, then moderate rally into early next week imo.

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    2. Fear is so difficult to play.....HVU up 5% and the S&P still barely positive...

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    3. Hi SS76

      you in your HVI position still?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  21. FXE 2 ticks away from low of year(125.75), but SPY hanging tough. If Euro can hold here or even rally we could see a nice close on SPY.

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    Replies
    1. New low in SPY followed new yearly low in FXE.
      Cash Euro so far has held the overnight low...but getting close

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  22. Replies
    1. I'm thinking maybe it can pop to $9.60 or so next few days.

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  23. Likely quiet into the long weekend. I think a moderate rally for SPX into Tues.

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  24. Euro held last night's low. Firmed up on news of a Greek poll showing 85% of Greeks are in favor of Euro. Some polls are also indicating far left losing support..If we start to move above 1333 SPX we could fly...I'm looking for sell off into 3:00 +/- then a strong close..and then follow SC's script for quiet moderate rally.

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  25. SC, nice HVI buy today. Well done.

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  26. Why no one has commented today?

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  27. Was wondering the same thing. Bought HVU at $5.22 today, stop loss at $5.15.

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  28. Hey Stock and SS

    what new?

    think ppl went on long break already...i got in HVU at 5.22 as well...didnt like the action so left at 5.25...penny gain...

    waiting for some thing to happen now....or just hold cash...it will be even SLOWER on monday for canadian market lol

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  29. I think I'll hold it providing it doesn't drop to my stop at $5.15.....just feel like the market is going to sell off. I missed these big runs thanks to flipping for a small gain.

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    Replies
    1. i am thinking we will see a intraday bounce soon...then sell off into close...just for fun..

      or we just close flat, due to lack of volume...

      think the drop wont happen till next week...

      been holding on to support at 1318 all day so far...unless we break that...hard to see a sell off today...oh and I think we need volume to break 1318 to confirm the sell off, otherwise it is a dip buy (since we dont have volume today, hard to see much going to happen downside)...


      SC, your thought on today?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  30. Ok Guys,

    I think most of the people here are ignoring big thing which is going to happen this weekend, that is decision of Greece to stay in Euro or announce new currency...and that decision will drive the market, so let's say if they decide to stay in Europe market will jump big time coming monday tuesday, since Monday is US holiday it is likely will be tuesday, and if they announce new currency then look below much below...

    Now you put your bets on which will be likely scenario for market.

    Cheers

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    Replies
    1. I bet they wont leave yet...doubt big decision to leave would be made before June election...place your bet?

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    2. What vote this weekend? I can't find anything on this???

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  31. SS76,

    My above comments were for you in particular since you are thinking of keeping HVU over the weekend.

    Hope this helps to make your decision.

    Thanks

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  32. Thanks stockboom.....so is there some sort of vote this weekend?

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  33. hmm seeing what i am talking about? 1318 a support they try to break down below it, but no volume...bounced back above it...interesting over the weekend for sure.

    i agree with SC that we will see XIV bounce to 9.6 ish soon. maybe early next week.

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  34. I'm out of HVU. I think I'll wait to see what unfolds next week rather than hold anything over the weekend.

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  35. Just type in Greek Exit on google and you will see tons of reading...

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  36. I did, but none of the stories I see mention a vote this weekend....can you point me to one?

    Bought HVI at $7.61.....will decide before close if I am going to hold it.

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  37. SS76, Is there any reason that you have to hold something? LOL man you need to chill out...no one knows how things will fly next week...

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  38. Ya, fear of missing the big move, lol. I do think that short term is up so that is why but I do change my mind TOO often.

    Have a great weekend!

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  39. buckle up boys... i'm looking at ascending triangle on TNA targeting $51.35 as well as a symmetrical(sloppy) triangle on UVXY targeting $14.50ish...all signs point to a pop to break out of each...

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    Replies
    1. Wow you sound super Bull,where's AAPL
      price 590? Also I agree short term

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