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Thursday, May 31, 2012

XIV - Triangle Pattern

The zone marked "chop" from May 20th analysis appears to be nearly complete.  A triangle pattern has formed and price is trading around the lower boundary.  XIV should be just about ready to spike to the upside.

A spike up to the target arrow is anticipated shortly.

30min Chart
















The following is the chart from May 20th analysis. 

60min Chart

56 comments:

  1. RUT is holding extremely well. Much higher than the lows earlier in May. Positive sign for the markets.

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  2. Bought another 25% XIV at $8.78.

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  3. Very smart buying SC. Impressed.

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    Replies
    1. I'm scaling into position because with these triangles it is difficult to know if price stops just above the line or overshoots below.

      In any case my target for XIV will still be around $10.45 regardless. I think we'll see that next week.

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  4. Hi SC. Are u expecting a bounce in XIV today. Thx.

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    1. I'm looking for $10.45 next week.

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  5. Where do you normally place stops?

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    Replies
    1. It's always a judgement call, but I don't have a tight stop in this case. Since I'm looking for a sizable move, I'm willing to give some breathing room on this position. I'm buying the dips.

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  6. Hi SC,
    Read your very bearish comments on PM's the other day, but since you like symmetry thought that I'd mention that the silver 9-25-11 (26.05) inverse head is exactly 34 weeks distance in time from both the 1-27-11 (26.37) left shoulder and 5-15-12 (26.73) recent low / possible right shoulder. Maybe one last drink before the bar closes.

    Also, back in 97 during a very similar early phase of the USD 15 year cycle, a bearish silver moved up with USD while gold did not.
    Jan/Feb 97 Silver 4.63-5.33/USD 88.8-95/Gold 360-362
    July97/Feb98 Silver 4.19-7.90/USD 95.7-100.8/Gold 318-302

    Anything is possible.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Hammerman,

      Let me check that out.

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  7. This next low could hit before June 5th just like the May 8th was a bit late. Not too shabby at all, considering that I posted this scenario back in December. I'm still looking for new highs by September.

    May to June was around 8% and that's about where we are now..
    http://tinyurl.com/d4g6mxp

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    1. Also agree, the market is configuring into a bullish upswing for a few weeks. Dips along the way but set for powerful rally!

      I still think approx 1375 SPX is realistic.

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    2. ZZ, maybe we'll trade flat for a day or two to burn off some "time".

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    3. I want to know how you got that chart.
      ....then again.
      MAYBE I DON'T.

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  8. Is there another small leg down for S&P 500 say 1250-60 before we turn around and rally then?

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  9. The dollar strength is telling here. Perhaps a small rally for the markets, but I suspect that once the dollar has burned off some of its bullish exhaustion with a pullback, it will be off to new highs and continue to pressure equities. Gold may get a flight to safety bid...eventually, but I need confirmation of an uptrend to get interested. Oil will bounce with equities, but it will likely just be a nice setup for a short, which I intend to take if it materializes. A bounce above 90 would likely make for a quick bearish trade back down for a bottom test.

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    1. I'm in your camp Wiseguy. I believe any bounce will be short and sweet with the $$ trumping everything.(Or Euro!) I am looking for an SPX drop into early July with the first low around OPEX.The Euro may test 1.22-1.20 and a break of 1.20 seems in the near future. SPX follows every downtick in FXE.
      Tonite 10:00 E-mini down 8.00, June Euro down .35

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  10. Nice work mate. Keep it coming :-)

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  11. HI SC. Are u expecting a big bounce today and Monday for XIV. Thx. Jobs numbers were pretty bad.

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    Replies
    1. I still like $10.45 for XIV next week.

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  12. SPY WKLLY
    http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/2287/spywkb.jpg

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    1. Joed, so are you expecting a bounce now to your P4 point on the diagram?

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    2. lol.......P4 is in, this weeks bar as shown! joed

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    3. sooo, confusing....so then if P4 is this weeks, what are you seeing as being in front of you for the next move?

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    4. ss76

      You are confusded as it is obvious you do not do your own work...and if that is true you deserve to be confused and lose money! No offense just the bottom line! You should be doing your own work and sharing, not trying to bleed anothers work dry to try to trade! Good luck on being succesful with that attitude! Best joed

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    5. Joed, not sure what I did to deserve that but I do take offense to it. I just don't understand your charts, that was my only point.

      Thanks anyways.

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    6. SS76

      That's my point IF you do not know what comes after a p4 and are asking about the next move, I rest my case............I understand you do not understand! I have great praise for SC........his patience is beyond human and of couse I look forward to the banter as he is misunderstood! lol Best, joed

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    7. Joed, mate that was really harsh. The only reason you are here sharing your work is to self promote and win over some paying clients...be honest!

      If you don't like people picking your brains then move on.

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    8. beetlejuice

      I don't promote anything........if you don't like the posts move on yourself! You have had nothing to share except grief when you misunstand SC's trade! Get real! joed

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    9. LOL not promoting anything. Well don't provide links then.
      Alot of anger in you buddy.

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    10. My links are to image shack.....not to me! Your an idiot buddy and that will anger anyone! lol joed

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    11. LOL so ya think people won't trace back to your website via your username?....I don't think so :)

      Opportunism. I ain't saying it's wrong. Just don't respond to people the way you responded to SS76. Not hard to be civil is it, or maybe it is for some?

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    12. beetlejuice

      You are proof you have the right name.....I rest my case! Wow maybe I should buy google so I can change the way they list our email! I traced yours back to an asylum....like I said keep your name! lol joed

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    13. Beetlejuice, thanks, but leave it alone. I enjoy SC's blog and Joed I enjoy your contribution but I never blame anyone for my trades and try to learn from everyone, hence my questions.

      After P4, is P5 obviously, and you had P4 as where we are this week however on your chart it appeared much higher and that is what led to my confusion....so you see a major drop given where P5 is on your chart and I am trying to understand the time when you see this (because you repeatedly stated you deal in time, not price).

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    14. ss76


      Correct we are in the P5 faze now.........my P4 has nothing to do with a target as I have mentioned many times or how high it is placed.....but I have to place the lable somewhere.....I have stated many times that my lable has nothing to do with targets! That is a completely different calculation! I do not understand your comment above though!

      "I am trying to understand the time when you see this (because you repeatedly stated you deal in time, not price)."

      Best, joed

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    15. ss76

      I have stated I do deal with price."price and time calculations", but as I have stated time leads into the target in hte end! You are welcome to email me and I will try to anser your ? once I understand it! Best, joed

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  13. Same plan, I do see the market rally next week. S&P futures did undercut the low May 21st, but the Nasdaq low is still holding. I warned last weekend about false breakouts this week and that is exactly what we saw.

    Now the markets are set to rally for real.

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    Replies
    1. SC, I think you are on to something here.....are you fully invested now in XIV? Considering it but unsure still...

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    2. I still have more I can add. I will do it soon as it looks attractive. In my view the market will show surprising strength next.

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  14. My current thoughts:Today could create the 5th wave down and
    a low.(200dma=1284). However that might be only (5) of [1]. I am looking for some kind of bounce up into next week. If that is indeed a wave [2] then we might begin an impulsive wave [3] down. Still see a low around OPEX..but final low after July 4th. Euro turning strongly up!

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  15. EMINI 240 MIN

    http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/3351/emini240.jpg

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  16. Good call on the S&P low today Klaatu and joed. SC has made some great calls. On May 30th he said that XIV was going to be at great buying levels "in the next couple of days" which it has been both yesterday and today. He is expecting around $10.45 next week. I think that's a great play. Thanks SC for your continued willingness to share. Thanks to all others who share on the blog as well. It's greatly appreciated.

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  17. I don't know what's a better trade for next week.

    HSU under $12 or XIV under 8.50

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  18. For the farmers! Watch this market!



    http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/5043/cornboth.jpg

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  19. GOLD FOR THE SMALL TRADER............YOU DO NOT HAVE TO HAVE A LARGE ACCOUNT TO BE SUCCESSFUL! Trade small enough not to get hurt and large enough so you pay attention to detail! joed

    http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/4789/goldaboth.jpg

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. SC,

    What do you think of this continual selling of market? S & P below 1285 for more then 1 hour.

    Thnaks

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    Replies
    1. Looks like capitulation.

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    2. wondering if Monday is a bloodbath bottom, say SPX 1257 old resistance before moving back up...

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  22. Bought HVI at the close, $6.74. Betting on the 200 day DMA holding.

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  23. Sc
    Where do you think Silver will go from here

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    Replies
    1. I like $31.50 for a target in June.

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  24. SC, with the down move on XIV and potential for lower on Monday (though I bet it bottoms here short term).....what do you see as a new high target?

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    1. The target for a June high will remain at $10.45 for XIV. The way this setup is that will not change at all.

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    2. I have a plan for how I'm going to trade next week. There are some interesting patterns set up as I will outline.

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  25. beatleAZZ

    Yea leave it alone! Your a real punk..........no wonder why no one wants to share! You remind me of the punk on the schoolyard that's always flappin and runnin, only you run benind your email address!gj

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