Silver - Update

Perhaps Silver is aiming for the tip of these triangles.  Silver has been the leader and Gold the follower in January.  Gold has been firmer than Silver over the last few days.  Silver may be in a holding pattern with minimal upside waiting for Gold to form a short term top.

Both should be ready to dip soon.

Daily Chart

$SPX - Feb 6th

The next major timing date to watch according to the "Eye of the Hurricane" chart is Feb 6th.  Monday looks positive in the cycle analysis, and the market should bounce.  Tuesday morning looks really weak though so a low early in the week looks probable, and then rocket up later in the week.

The upside target remains at 1340, and Feb 6th is an important date to watch. 

10min Chart

Silver - Target and Timing Boxes

Silver is currently trading with striking similarity to early 2011.  The identical sized timing and price boxes are matching up well with the current Silver market.  There is perfect geometry using the price and timing boxes with an indicated target at $37.

On Monday January 30th, or Tuesday at the latest, Silver should start to dip hard short term even if it rises slightly first.  Overall though Silver is anticipated to continue to rise in choppy trading through February.

Look closely, and you will see three identical sized triangles.  Silver may seem to trade erratically without any rhyme or reason.  Not so...  It is very precise price action.

Daily Chart

February Silver Map:

2hour Chart

Silver/Gold - Updates

Silver likely has run out of room to advance for now.  Resistance was expected at the green line, and then the the pink line.  This pink line should prove to be strong resistance.  A significant dip is expected next for Silver, and further analysis will be coming shortly with target levels.

60min Chart

Gold broke out of the bullish wedge pattern as expected.  There may be minimal upside to meet the time and price target.  The yellow lines were drawn on the Jan 16th Gold analysis: 

http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/gold-starting-to-shine.html

2hour Chart

$SPX - Target Raised to 1340

This rally seems poised to defy gravity, and end with a bang.  The geometry is aligned for a final surge up to 1340 SPX, and timing appears to be Monday, January 30th.

1340 is an interesting number.

The May 2011 high was 1370, and SPX fell to the Oct low at 1074.  That is a 296 point drop.  1340 SPX minus 296 points equals 1044 SPX.

The calculated target for a major decline remains at 1044 SPX.

30min Chart

2day Chart

$SPX - Correction Due

Today was a turn date in the timing cycles, and a correction is due.  The cycle analysis looks weaker for tomorrow/Wednesday and also around January 30-31st. 

The VIX gapped up, and that was a sign that the rally was about to fizzle.  The VIX bottom on Friday looks solid.  

15min Chart

Silver - Ready to Cool Off

Silver has been red hot, and it has been a great run up from the December bottom.  It is ready to cool off somewhat now with some significant retracements.  For the futures, a dip to $30.30 area seems likely.

Notice that the red and turquoise fork lines are exactly aligned as indicated at the green arrow.  Silver is trading in accordance with complex but exact geometric patterns.   

2hour Chart

$SPX - Target Reached

The target zone was up to 1312, and price hit that level.  According to plan a sharp selloff is anticipated next.

http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx-approaching-target.html

After it corrects, and to complete the topping process, SPX may surge up to ideally near 1326.  1326 is an interesting number.

The July 2011 high was 1356, and SPX fell to the Oct low at 1074.  That is a 282 point drop.  1326 SPX minus 282 points equals 1044 SPX.

The calculated target for a major decline remains at 1044 SPX.       

60min Chart

The reality is that NDX has been weakening since October.  This is a leading index.  It is clear cut that the next major move for the markets will be down.

2hour Chart

SPX at long term resistance.

2day Chart

VIX - Bottomed

Last weekend it was suggested that the VIX had a little more to decline.  It did decline, and now the geometry lines up beautifully for a bottom. 

The VIX is much lower than in late October.  In contrast, SPX is barely higher than the late October high at 1292.  This is a very bearish combination with the market hardly advancing in 3 months, and a VIX that has collapsed. 

Complacency is at an extreme.  The target for VIX is over 60.

Daily Chart

 

$SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

Each of the turquoise fibonacci arcs marked the timing of a significant turn including the timing of the October 2011 low at 1074.  The first turquoise arc comes up tomorrow or Monday Jan 23rd.  Feb 6-7th is then the next timing date to watch. 

The first red fibonacci arc marked the timing of the August 9th low.  As well, price tested near the first red arc at the Oct 27th high at 1292.  Following that high was a 134 point decline into the Nov 28th low at 1158. 

The yellow fork caught many highs and lows last year.  If SPX did pullback, and manage to reach a little higher to test the yellow fork that would be around 1325.   

Daily Chart

SPY - Timing Cycle Convergence

There was increased volatility around the last set of timing cycles shown last week.  A larger set is coming due on Jan 23-24th. 

The turquoise fork line was tested yesterday, and that may hold as support for now. 

2hour Chart

Gold - Starting to Shine

Gold has been steadily rising up from the low.  Some chop at this level is to be expected in January.  Overall a rise into early February is probable with a correction to follow.  That sets up for a very large leg up in Gold.

The Gold target remains at $2,050. 

Daily Chart

$SPX - Approaching Target

The charts, cycles, and calculations strongly support a move higher to test the level as shown with the green arrow.  The zone is 1308-1312 SPX.
 
Once reached, a sharp selloff is anticipated from that level.

4hour Chart

VIX - Low - No Bottom Yet

Volatility has been low in January.  VIX is experiencing resistance with the red and yellow midforks.  VIX is approaching a bottom, but is still anticipated to move lower with complacency continuing to build. 

Though VIX has some limited downside to test supports near term, the bigger picture is that the VIX target is in the 60+ range. 

3day Chart

Let's take a look at TVIX aka the "widowmaker".  TVIX will probably still put in a slight higher high first in coming weeks.  The timing cycles suggest a potential bottoming date may be Feb 8-9th approximately.   

SPY - Timing Cycles Due

Markets have been slowly grinding higher into the due date of the following timing cycles.  One was due yesterday, and the next is due on the 17th.  A minimal amount of upside looks possible. 

While the market has been quiet, I have been working on detailed charts and timing for January and February.  Stay tuned!  

Daily Chart

Silver - Nice Symmetry

Let's see how Silver reacts to the pink trendline.  The line has been tested hard for a while now.  It may have enough strength to break above.  Even if it breaks above though, it might just settle again and cool off with some retracement short term.

Check out how the geometry has lined up perfectly on my cycle line as shown with the green arrow.  I use the cycle line in my symmetry work.  It is a good confirmation that the symmetry is correct, and also that the bottom is in.

2hour Chart

$SPX - Top Target Calculation

The following chart is a more detailed and refined look at next week.  This configuration of geometry puts the high on about the 16th of January at approximately 1311 SPX.

I noticed that the Nov low at 1159 SPX up to the Dec Triple Top at 1267 SPX was 108 SPX points.

From the Dec low at 1202 plus 108 points equals 1310 SPX target.  This lines up well with the target predicted by the geometry, and also the trendlines from 2008.

Notice that the first 108 point leg up was much faster - much stronger market.  This leg up is going much slower - weakening market.

60min Chart

 

 

$SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

This rally still appears to have one last pop left in it.  Monday the market should dip a little, but it seems that judging by the geometry, this could top out around Tuesday at near 1311 maximum (red line).  From there it looks weak into Jan 12th or so, and a test of near 1255 is the target on that decline.

All of this January topping process is setting up for Crash #1 of 2012.  The Crash target is 1044 SPX in February.  Additional charts will be following to show February timing, but let's finish up with the top first and foremost.

I did mention that 2012 was going to be a wild year!

60min Chart

There is a need to look back to 2008 to see the best perspective on this market.  There is strong resistance just overhead. 

2day Chart

$SPX - Multiple Resistances

Many different layers of resistance are converging at this price and time.  Price is struggling at resistance and a turn down is anticipated to commence shortly.  There should be a concentration of selling pressure into the middle part of next week.    

Daily Chart

$SPX - Topping

SPX is testing the neckline going back to the March and June lows as shown on the 4 hour chart.  Upside is minimal.  Next, decline into Jan 9th to 11th. 

15min Chart

4hour Chart

$SPX - Update

Things are quiet.  December was a comparatively slow month.  The VIX is low and finding support at the levels prior to the August selloff.  In the short run the low VIX has suggested low volatility.  The VIX is lower now than when SPX was at 1292 in late October.  Ultimately this suggests complacency is building - bearish.

There is a lot of similarity between this period and July 2011.  It's been holding up longer, but still see it resolving on the downside with a major move.  It looks weak into Jan 9th to 11th.

30min Chart