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Thursday, October 6, 2011

SPY - Falling Wedge

The rally has nearly backtested the red line within a falling wedge.  A sharp decline to test the lower boundary of the wedge may be in order next.

Keep in mind ultimately the falling wedge is a bullish pattern.
   
4hour Chart

21 comments:

  1. Thanks SC

    lokking at this chart silver chart gives you similar mirror image does that mean silver is also will be bullish? Do you see silver falling from current level or going higher?

    Thanks

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  2. im thinking the same thing, if 32.4 is taken out then run into high 30's may be in the cards. I believe SC mentioned being bullish for the next month(s) or so, but not sure if we will retest 26 again before going higher.

    http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/7165/streamingserver1209924.gif

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  3. This is what to expect in Silver over the next few months:

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver-collapse-resumes-2012-target-650.html

    Silver still may test the $26 bottom again. Once the bottoming is complete, then I see Silver heading to the orange line on the chart. I will short it there.

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  4. Hi SC what is the limit for the SPX to cancel out the possible sharp decline. I am still short term bearish myself but would like to see a pull back starting tonight. What are your thoughts?

    Thanks SC

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  5. This pop will test the red flag line. Watching for the drop next.

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  6. The limit would be the upper turquoise line. I think this is a great short setup!

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  7. SC,
    do you think that possible sharp decline will make a new low (under 1073) ? Thanks.

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  8. Not promising, but my target is that SPX trades 1044 or even undershoots lower by next Friday.

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  9. Hi SC

    I feel so stupid after clicking chart on your silver post; lol now i understand why i was gettjng confused; actually i thought charts are for silver itself silly me came to know today that it is for SLV
    sorry to bother you now i am clear on silver SLV high today is 31,50 right where your chart points downfall should start

    thanks again

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  10. Thanks SC would the top of the turquoise line be about 1170 on SPX or a little higher?

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  11. The line is at about 1180 SPX.

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  12. SC what about in terms of time for this reversal to occur, I know you have a low target day of next Friday but do you see the SPX starting to turn down later in the day and just chop up and down here for a while before dropping? Do you have a time limit for this to occur?

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  13. Let's see how it goes today. Quite possible we see a decent drop in the mkt today. Monday would be fine too.

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  14. Not sure if it has topped. If there is another bounce 1176 might be it.

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  15. SC the SPX still can not break that line on the upside and got sold down and bought back up. It looks like the bearish count is still in play would you agree?

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  16. anybody staying short over the weekend?

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  17. Yes, I think so. There are signs that the mkt is weakening. It still may test or slightly exceed the top this morning, but next week looks promising for th bears.

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  18. That close might be more favorable to the bulls come Monday morning I suspect, but later in the week looks very interesting in any case...

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  19. Hi SC when you say more favorable to the bulls I would have thought the late sell off would have been bearish. Are you still bearish with a retest of the previous lows by next Friday?

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  20. Yes, very bearish. I'll explain with some charts.

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