Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Still looking for a bottom today or Monday SC? or is it extended?
Hi SC what do you think is the most upside on the S&P here before we start to reverse. I also thought that time and price were exhausted and we should have start to show real weakness by now. What are your thoughts here?Thanks
So far just lots of whipsaws - which makes timing difficult. I'm waiting to see some more.
Yes SC I agree it is very choppy action at the moment. Do you still see a major pullback under 1100 on SPX in the short term?
Still a lot of weakness in NDX. RUT weaker also.
I mentioned last week that we would have upward bias this week. Next week could be a good one for the bears. I will continue to buy the dips because my Oct 3rd low to high cycle doesn't end until January..
zig zag, thanks for being a contrarian on this site, great call, do u have a blog where u blog more. please let me know. do u think that one should short today for a swing play into next week, thanks again
ZIG ZAGI suspect you will be right, a sharp decline next week, one of those that scares the daylights out of people, but will hold the lows and I agree, it should be bought. I am no expert on cycles but given the market's resilience in the face of what should be "extreme weakness" as forecast by the cycles is in my opinion bullish for the overall picture. I think one of the faults of many is to disregard the forest and focus on the trees. The market's rise off of the October lows has not received the respect it deserves with the exception of a few, like yourself
Hi Phantom, I don't have a blog at this time. Next week looks like it could be weak and I have a small cycle peak hitting today. I'm not sure how much of a sell off next week because we have another probable high cycle that doesn't hit until November 3-4. The larger cycle high measures to the first week of January.I'm selling 25% of my longs today from the Oct 3rd low cycle and will just watch what happens next week.
Regarding SC's charting i would like to say the members of this blog that initially i too confused and doubt on his technique but i think i realise that SC is more into main cycles rather then daily up and down; so if you just focus on main move you will realise that SC is always on spot..... my two centscheers and happy trading
GabeI have been following your charts on the ES. Thanks for all the helpful info. Have you spotted a top here yet?
DOW.......In reality anyone waiting for the long side will have no problem........as I am for IRA accounts! The cycle work shows that this up move will retrace at minimum %50 and depending on the cycle path can retrace more! Into that time window price will tell us! In the mean time the swings have produced hugh profits! That retracement in time will give the next buy! imho Good trading! joed
Hi PK, seasonal bias should pick up again around 10/31 and it should be bought imo.
Gabe,According to your work, when does this time window for the retrace scheduled to occur?
Amazing how weak the dollar is.
Gabe, When you said retrace 50% or more of the advance for the Dow, do you mean 50% of the rise from oct.3 low or mar,2009? The target will be very different. Are you still looking for the S n P to go below 1000 this month or next month?
this is from carl futia, hes been calling for move higher since last bottom and now he thinks we may replicate the first move down, possibly even lower, top - 1250:http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3Ffmn51aQ6A/TqA0z-9Y7XI/AAAAAAAACqg/TiSR47zhwTQ/s1600/111020%2Bcht%2B1.jpg
blake, compare USD behavior in '08 vs today - same thing, same supports and pretty much the same timing of the break out, off by a few days only. ~75.9 would be the low and then we spike making higher high:http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/9927/streamingserver7860817.gif
May have enough time for the market to make a new high before the close! LOL! it cannot be stopped
I have noticed that blue, but I have seen alot of traders that have noticed it as well. Might be crowded. I have been long the dollar since about 73.5, pretty unhappy that I did not take profits. I did not expect to get a correction so deep. It has worn me out and I may close the trade today, very dissappointing. I am not one to scream manipulation ever, I think it is a joke to not take responsibility for a bad trade and blame it on "them" instead, but this action is very strange to me.
1inbluemoonThanks for the Carl Futia link ... just checked it out and I like his stuff.
no problem.SC, looks like we are finishing week on pretty bullish note...
Been looking for a major decline since October 2nd
I realize that last comment sounds negative, but my point is that at some point every trader must have a stop. This has been one heck of a rally to be holding short through. Everyone is wrong at some point, it is always going to happen. To continue to hold through moves like this will eventually bankrupt anyone.
Pk............I have been out all day but I will be now stalking the short side in the night session and going into Monday morn!Curios..........I am talking about retrace minimum from the 10/4 low..........and as I said I pay less attention to targets until I get into the time window...until then I use trailing stops once in a swing trade! I will post some charts later! Good trading! joed
This is what I said on Oct 2nd and 3rd:"SPX appears poised to test below 1100 on this dip.""Remember, I am not overly bearish, but an early Oct capitulation move is in order imo. I'll be outlining some important timelines shortly." "Thank you. 1090 is a target for tomorrow with a decent bounce from there into Wed." I was expecting a good bounce and another decline following it. The bounce has been much stronger than expected.
Thanks SC, yes the bounce has been more than I also expected. Do you still see some weakness in the markets going into the end of OCT and for a pull back to start next week? Are the new low targets still in play?
I think so. I'm going to review everything in detail this weekend, but I don't much that has changed. NDX for example has made lower highs all week.
Thanks SC have a good weekend
SC Today's bounce: Is it reflected in your "60 min, SPX - Bearish Symmetry" chart/post ? (or violates it in some way ?)If reflected: Yes, then major decline to point 7 of that same chart is still due ? And as mentioned in that post: point 7 is below point 5 (SPX= 1074, or so). ANY major modification to that view, this weekend, from LAST two day's market action.Just like you said, ' Europe situation is quite fluid'.Thank you for your hard work, and have a good weekend. PS. Oct 4th was a "significant market TURN" in my book, in the 'short-term' trading we usually discuss here. ....... not just a (MINOR) bounce(or decline) in a trending market !! Next such TURN, please !!
SC Just saw your last comment. Thanks for your upcoming review.
SC, NDX has been weak all week. But dow and SnP made new higher high, do you think it might be a breakout and the NDX will follow, or a headfake that lures in more longs before the market goes down to 1140-1150 about 50% of the advance from Oct 3. Does today's action lower the possibility of making new lower low, less than 1075, by the end of the year? Or maybe today's action is manl due to Options expiration?
Adding to Curious.... ,Is today's SPX high the point 6 ? : in 60 min chart from Oct 18th post.Thanks, SC You are the cycles expert ! to decipher it !
The symmetry chart is still valid. The symmetry is only meant to show the next large move, not the exact timing or price of a turning point. Notice that on the left side of the symmetry chart there is a lot of chop at point 6. So it is no surprise that we are seeing that same chop now.I have done extensive work on NDX, and where we are in the cycles going back many years. I have some very important charts to show on this topic for perhaps one of the most exciting upcoming moves in the mkt. The NDX is already leading down over the last week. SPX is a follower.
SC, after this move down you see recovery and move into higher highs into 2012 and then more significant crash? Time wise, why 2011 is not a high and we have not already started the big move down?I have a feeling that psychologically a lot of people/traders are already "programmed" to expect a crash or some bad market moves to happen in 2012 and as we know markets dont like to be predictable like that.. So one "solution" would be to have it come earlier than expected... So my question is, why not now?
"Notice that on the left side of the symmetry chart there is a lot of chop at point 6. So it is no surprise that we are seeing that same chop now. " SCThat's what I thought, for last few days action: more chop-chop. It should be clear to most here - who read your comments - that ** in the end ** Symmetry charts are, at best, suggestive of possible SPX market action; and NOT describing the "time and price" of unfolding market moves !I hope I got that right.
Bluemoon - let me address that further this weekend. You are right to expect the unexpected.The symmetry chart predicts a choppy top here and a decline to new lows under SPX 1075 next.
SC et al,Have anyone noticed the warnings posted by Reggie Middleton regarding the potential blow up of BAC, pertaining to the counter party risks to the potential European bank liquidity crisis, caused by their leverage exposure to the Greece debt situation.Is the chain reaction to be as follow, aka Lehman brother style.1. Greece bond holders took more than 50% haircut trigger a credit default event.2. A few of the Europe banks (bond holders) trigger credit default claims to the counter parties3. Counter parties, USA banks included, to the credit default claims trigger liquidity crisis, and potential bankruptcy claims.It is compared by him that BAC is like AIG of the 2008, but much bigger in scale.comments ?http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Bank-of-America-Lynching-this-CountryWide-s-Equity-Is-Likely-Worthess-and-It-Will-Rape-FDIC-Insured-Accounts-Going-Bust.html
Interesting that you bring up similarity to 2008 because I'm about to show a chart comparison to 2008. I see a lot of similarity, but there is a twist. The fundamental picture is awful and getting worse all the time. Yet, the market cycles will determine when prices reflect fundamentals.It's obvious that the European situation is about to come to a head. I do see another scare brewing, and maybe you are on to something with BAC. Thanks.
EMINI/DOW............STALKING PRICE!I am flat these markets stalking into these areas of interest of price and time. Good trading! joedhttp://img845.imageshack.us/img845/1300/emini1.gif
BAC STOCK DAILYhttp://img69.imageshack.us/img69/2254/bac.gif
Interesting Gabe. So you see the 1254 neckline from the previous head and shoulders as a good short opp...... the more I read, the more people I see that expect the SPX to hit 1274, but I don't think that happens before it hits new lows....Based on your charts and commentary, I think you agree?
ss76I will be going smaller time frames and taking the setups in to my posted areas......the key to me is time is coming in.......time fades targets! Good trading! joed“A TRADERS RESULTS ARE DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO HIS CYCLES AT THE TIME. SOME CALL IT BEING IN THE ZONE”
This crash is coming...what SC, Atilla, and other very reliable chartists have mentioned for free are watching. This has to be the week. The EU bailout announcement keeps getting postponed. Something is afoot.1255 is likely the final print for this rally. 1270+ I think is unlikely. However, obviously, expect the unexpected.
"bear talk" continues to prevail and is flourishing. As long as it continues, the market will defy what everyone is looking for.
PK, you are looking at a tiny sample of a few dozen posters on a handful of blogs. That has no meaning whatsoever.What matters are sentiment indicators for the broader market. Right now they range from fairly neutral (AAII) to very bullish (Rydex fund commitment & put/call ratios).