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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

$SPX - Bearish Symmetry

SPX bounced again today at the yellow midfork.  The red upper fork line was also tested, and that is typically a very strong resistance. 

The configuration of the turquoise fork looks complete and favourable for a decline now.   

2hour Chart















The symmetry to either side of the cycle line looks bearish.  There should be a final plunge from 6 down to point 7 which is equivalent in the symmetry to the August panic lows.  Notice that point 7 is below point 5.

The last week appears to be a broadening top formation - a sign of increased volatility to come.

60min Chart

57 comments:

  1. emini daily


    http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/959/eminidaily.gif

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  2. SC

    Short-term update ?
    "waiting game" = turning into, Waiting for Godot !

    Financials still holding well so far. thank you.

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  3. I'm sounding like a broken record, but the bears have so much on their side (on a short term basis).

    That's right, I agree, now we are just waiting on the financials. They are teetering on the edge.

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  4. Good to hear from you, SC.

    Your intra-day cycles projecting any fireworks today, or sometime soon !

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  5. My cycle work does look weaker today. Let's see if we can finally have a turn.

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  6. SC

    Thank you for all your hard work.

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  7. this was posted on daneric's blog in comments section in late august, great calls on PM's so far, his stock market bottom is in novemeber, i am also seeing potentially important low in the week of nov 18'th for NDX :

    "Here is the roadmap and strategy, one short term low for PM in september than spike and low again in october than spike and than final low and intermediate bottom in november.. I will play PM from Bear prespective.. Getting in as a bear and out at the right time is very important, apply agility.. try to play counter trend with very high risk management.

    For equities, one important bottom in september and one important bottom in november.. the "widow maker" move will come in 2012, so make sure to preserve your trading capital , because right moves in 2012 alone can make you lot of money that you will not ruin the 2010 or 2011 bull/bear moves. take care.."

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  8. Thanks blumoon for great information; now when he said one more low in october for megal does he mean that it will be lower then september? do you think we already have low in october for pm?

    one of the large currency headge tradername john taylor of fx concepts believes that gold will top in november at 1750 to 1800 and it will grind down from there till march/april around 1000 to 1200 and that will provide great entry point; he believes copper will be in bad shape but silver will be worst and horrible.

    Thanks for your response

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  9. SC

    Do you see more weakness today, below S&P 1210 ? or
    Financials are firming up here?

    Thank you.

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  10. Good call on snp SC from yesterday. hitting red fork line and reverse was just dreamly perfecto! great charting

    thanks

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  11. Thanks, looks heavy . SC
    How are Financials looking ?

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  12. VIX is gonna be around 18 soon.

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  13. Also, it is long way "down" to the mid-line of your "turquoise fork ".

    Very good call. Congrats. SC

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  14. Tbonds 240 MIN


    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/

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  15. EMINI 240 MIN follow up/# MIN ENTRANCE


    http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/9885/clipboard02jjjjjjj.gif

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  16. I agree Zigzag, but I still think one final drop first.

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  17. TBONDS 240 MIN


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/542/tbonds240.gif/

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  18. I agree with both Zig Zag and SC..................

    A drop now but we make a higher Low..........and then off to the races.

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  19. SC - any idea what the cycle analysis shows regarding timing of big drops in 2012? Perhaps a bit pre-mature but I think there should be some widow makers.

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  20. JJG ETF DAILY FOLLOW UP (GRAINS )


    http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/6904/jjgdaily.gif

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  21. Still long spx 1211 from yesterday. Hoping we retest the highs and hold. Good luck to everyone.

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  22. SC, where do you see this low going, and when do you think it gets there? Still targeting 1040 and it happening Oct 23rd?

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  23. Jason, the fact that SPX bounced off 1232, and has topped for several sessions, and also closed below 1214, suggests it is heading to 1174 first IMO.

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  24. EMINI 240 MIN


    http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6521/240count.gif

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  25. SS, Am hoping for a gap up or rally at the market open tomorrow. If neither scenario materializes I will get out and lick my wounds.

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  26. Hey, you never know. Any whiff of an agreement tonight will send the markets higher tomorrow.....just I'm not feeling it.

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  27. "SC - any idea what the cycle analysis shows regarding timing of big drops in 2012?"

    I'm confident that I have the right pattern in place for 2012. I still have to crunch the numbers on some of the timing. Waiting for some data right now, and will shed some light on that. 2012 is going to be a wild year.

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  28. SC

    I am more interested in next 2 days: How do you see Intra-day S&P cycles playing out? Do you see any break of 1200 to the down side ?

    Strong move, or just chop-chop till Monday ?
    waiting for EU summit over the weekend.

    Thank you.

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  29. 2012 will give way to large moves in an organized manner for very large profit! Those that are prepared will make much more than this year as a swing trader! imho Good trading! joed

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  30. Yes I agree, 2012 is going to be a big mover!

    Next level bears want to see tested is 1187 SPX imo. Let's see tomorrow.

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  31. http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/2738/emini240y.gif

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  32. SC

    what is major support or price you think silver is going to touch in this downleg? you still planning to go long at 27?

    Thanks

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  33. In that area looks interesting for Silver. Even a slight new low is possible.

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  34. Thanks SC; only reason i ask becoz daily chart BB lines may not allow that move this time and silver may jump drom 29 area and then down agai...just thought

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  35. SC, so you dont see a spike here for metals, they bottom first?

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  36. Remember on the "gold spike" chart earlier this month, I showed Gold dropping first then spiking. It seems to be playing out that way.

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  37. Interesting that copper has been slumping the last couple days and is nearly back at the early Oct lows. It didn't bounce much in Oct either.

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  38. Whether it is manipulation or something else, given the broad sell-off across the entire "risk trade" spectrum, the S&P is holding remarkably well.

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  39. SC

    Looks like Copper, and Financials leading down towards your last night's next level to watch -> S&P 1187 . But are the Financials firming up here temporarily ?

    Are you expecting majority of decline to eventual low target early next week, due to Options expiration tomorrow ? Or events might overwhelm that (normal times') equation.

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  40. NDX, RUT, Financials are all weaker today. Humpty (SPX) is still superglued on to the wall lol! Starting to wobble though...

    Let's take it one step at a time. Europe situation quite fluid.

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  41. EMINI ................

    http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/5302/es1020.gif

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  42. Yep, thanks. SC.

    "Humpty (SPX) is still superglued on to the wall lol! ". :) :)
    Seems time is up soon !

    If in short-term, your S&P radar shows something more, please share.

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  43. Out ZSL: http://screencast.com/t/SQVaBVgcJ
    Still long TZA/ERY, small long hedge.

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  44. Bounced again exactly at the yellow midfork. I think it'll break next time.

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  45. Someone forgot to tell the transports and retail that we're supposed to go lower. TRAN seasonal bias usually starts close to October 19th and the VIX is close to my cycle peak here.

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  46. GOLD..........


    http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/2310/goldkj.gif


    Good trading! joed

    “A LINE IS NOTHING MORE THAN A LINE……….IT IS TIME THAT MAKES IT ACTIVE”

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  47. Hi SC

    after hitting yellow fork line how high snp can jump?

    1220? Thanks

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  48. EMINI FOLLOW UP EXIT


    http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/3885/emini3minfollow.gif

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  49. DOW 2 CYCLES PRESENT


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/811/dow2cycles.gif/

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  50. SC

    Do you see weakness intraday tomorrow for S&P, or not till next week ? Superglued to wall: quite funny.

    Now, waiting game or more ?

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  51. Still holding long from spx 1211. Feel a bit silly that I have not been able to capitalize on Gabe's support/resistance levels. Gabe, do you have a trading room that I might be able to join?

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  52. Jason Lee..........

    Jason, trading is a journey, be easy on yourself! I have closed my blog as what I really was trying to create was exactly that, with video where by all could hook into my computer and I could teach in that manner, rather than the mentoring that I do! But it really turned out to be a project that was too time consuming to produce! With mentoring I can do it when I feel like it so it is not a big deal in time and I enjoy the teaching aspect and the results and excitement of a student's results and growth!

    In my trading I am trading the inside the cycle but I trade the swing not the cycle! No one does well with "buy and hold" in my experience!

    My email is trakktrader80@gmail.com if I can help ya! Good trading and welcome to the journey within! joed

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  53. Thanks, Gabe. Will shoot you an email later tonight!

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