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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

$SPX - Bounced on Support

Bounced as suggested this morning with the fork lines doing a nice job of defining support levels:

"Wasn't surprising to see the bounce this morning since closed yesterday at some support. Now trading at the red line. Financials haven't followed through as much on the downside this morning. Looks like a short term bounce may set up again soon."

NDX is still underperforming though, and that is an issue in terms of sustainability of this rally.  As well I have Oct 31st and Nov 1st flagged for potential weakness.

15min Chart

44 comments:

  1. It is always so quiet in the board when the market is surging... SC do you still see the scenario you described to play out after today's ridiculous breakout to 1275? Or are we going to see 1300 before we see any significant pullback (crash is what I'd like to see....)

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  2. Tops occur on "good news". I do think we'll see a significant drop into Monday/Tues from this level or not much higher. We can reasses at that point.

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  3. I would say this is a wave 3 then wave 4 pullback and finally wave 5 at 1300+

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  4. NDX at the same level as Oct 17th. Possible triple top.

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  5. EMINI

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/811/clipboard02d.gif/

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  6. Hi gaber, i can't understand your chat. could you put some comments if it is possible? thanks

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  7. new from Atilla:

    Today is like 'October 3 2008' for European markets
    12 hours ago

    When we test March 2009 lows in coming months, think about what I said. It may be the only solution indeed
    20 hours ago

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  8. EMINI.............

    Moving stops up on the long entry....

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/37/emini1027.gif/

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  9. EMINI.......EXIT

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/440/emini3minexit1027.gif/

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  10. today's market doesn't even remotely resemble that of OCT 3, 2008. People who have been calling for the "end" for the past few weeks will say anything to keep the lemmings from abandoning ship. Of course we will correct and we are over due for a strong pullback. And to be very honest, SC's new lows may not yet be dismissed, at least not in my analysis. However, the OCT 4th lows cannot be discounted as just "another bounce". Time will tell!

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  11. GOLD UPDATE


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/37/gold1027.gif/

    “DRAW WITH THE THOUGHTS OF LEANING ON IT WITH TIME………..IF IT FEELS WEAK DON’T LEAN HARD!

    trakktrader80@gmail.com

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  12. TNA AUTO EXIT............

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/7/tnaspread1027.gif/

    “THE LAST TEACHER STANDING IS YOU”

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  13. hi sc; do think price of silver will also drop mon. or tues. thanks

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  14. Stockboom there is a glitch with some posts - not sure why.

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  15. Silver/Gold charts have been working well:

    Silver should be getting toppy in this area, but the top might be flatter than what I have shown on the chart (or rounded). Next move should be to $27-29 though it may spend some time rattling around up here.

    Silver chart time and price have been accurate:

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver-collapse-resumes-2012-target-650.html

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  16. EMINI UPDATE



    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/825/emini1027b.gif/

    “THE WRONG TIME MAKES THE BEST TRADER WRONG”

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  17. SC and followers I must say this rally has been amazing to watch, but would I be correct in saying that it has been overdone here, surely. Can we still see a large sell off coming in the next few days?

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  18. Absolutely it is overdone, and I think we'll see a nice drop Mon/Tues. However, what is surprising is that my work looks quite bullish around Nov 3rd and also Nov 14th. So let's see how things go into early next week and can take it from there.

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  19. Clearly a bullish day for the markets and a bearish one for the dollar. I closed out shorts and dollar long yesterday after the close. Good luck to those still trying to swim against the current.

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  20. There is a glitch Stockboom is trying to post and said this:

    "This is sure heck of a rally and very scary for any level of bear.....with USD breaking major support today makes is more scary...we live in crazy world and no one knows where this will take...bad thing is after today there will be more bears and makes it hard to stop this rally...just contrian theory..."

    Very good points.

    If anyone else is having trouble posting please email me at cyclicalanalyst@gmail.com. I'm trying to figure out if that is an isolated issue. Thanks.

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  21. Thanks SC, is it possible that your cycles could be inverted this time around and when they were saying it was going down it was going up and maybe Nov 3rd will actually be when the market starts turning down. Is this a possible scenario?

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  22. SC, with all due respect for your work, but you have been saying there will be a Major downturn since Oct 15, and the market has done nothing but ripping higher and higher. Do you think the dates and levels to watch need to be re-evaluated after all these craziness? Do you still believe we will make a lower low than Oct 3 before the end of the year?
    Stockboom,
    I think there is no more bears out there, they got their skin ripped off since early Oct. Those that stayed would have died today...RIP for bears.

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  23. No, I think what happened was that we just saw whipsaws instead of a larger drop. There were good sized drops (several for 30 points) in that mid Oct time frame, but there was nothing large with follow through. Nov 1 to Nov 3rd looks like a bottom, but it sure looks positive after that. Quite sure it'll rise around Nov 3rd.

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  24. I am not a "cycles guy" but do believe they work and look at them when they are "talking" in line with my work. My question is regarding the issue of when cycles become inverted; what method do you guys use to identify or at least bail out when such an event takes place. I realize the obvious answer is when the market is moving opposite to what the cycles are projecting, but from a trader's standpoint is there anything that anyone uses to take an opposite view or at least protect himself from this inversion?

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  25. I think the mkt will "tell all" next week. Re-evaluating is always important.

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  26. I have been following your work for awhile. I noticed that recently things kind of turns out opposite of what your cycle predicts. There were a couple of times whenu said a certain day is very bearish, and it turned out to be a major up days, and days when you were bullish, we ended up having a major down day. I remember someone once commented that if he does opposite of what you said, he will make big bucks. Now I see there is some truth that. I really dont mean to offend you, but I thnk PK might have a point when he said maybe your cycle is inverted?..

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  27. A ray of light for the bears is that on my custom set Stochs, they have made a lower value in each pop higher which bottom line is negative divergence.
    That may mean a top of some kind is near.
    That being said it is far from a sell signal.

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  28. curiousmind, that is a fair point. Sometimes things just get out of phase. In that case it just means a shift, and then things are right again. All I can say is that I will make the changes necessary to make things right.

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  29. PK……………………………….

    That is a very good question………and most have no idea what you are asking! First of all and foremost a trader to successfully use cycles he must have FILTERS set up so that he knows that either his cycle is inverted or at least to just switch over to normal trading until it clears up! Most that use a mirror approach get blindsided and lose whatever money they made in one trade once it happens because a mirror approach isolates usually a small optimized portion of a cycle that is going to evaporate sooner or later leaving no time to catch up! It is imperative tha tone has filters for every step he uses in trading! Good trading! joed

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  30. PK................

    Also it's important t orealize NO ONE should trade the cycle..........one trades the setups into the cycle if they agree! Too many here are closing their eyes and trading what is being discussed........big mistake! Best, joed



    “WHEN TIME IS RIGHT LINES ARE CLEARER”

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  31. I have noticed that when the cycles are correct there isn't much fooling around and the market in question responds quickly. The early August lows and the October lows are examples where the cycles were accurate. But I do agree with your assessment Gabe, that its always best to let price tell the trader when to take a position rather than time. When price confirms, a good trader should feel confident yet at the same time cognizant of his/her risk which must ALWAYS be adhered too.

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  32. Gabe, any idea what went wrong with the master cycle you were working off of in Sept? I'm not familiar with that one, and so wondering if that has any implications going forward.

    Thanks.

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  33. sc.............

    I posted the 2 cycles in play as far as I am concerned.............if you will review the Dow chart it is very clear what is going on at the moment! TIME does not project price it just gives a layout of it, I projected price 3 months ago as we were talking about the low being taken out and what ratio level that would be at if the first cycle was in power! But if you pay attention to the details I posted the low dates for correction are still in play and have not passed us by at the moment so in short nothing is wrong, except I was not aware of the level of experience on the site! Best, joed



    “NO ONE CAN TRADE ANOTHER'S KNOWLEDGE”

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  34. In general conversations and in private emails I have stated that CIT dates in my opinion are not cycles! I use CIT dates and have my own way of calculating them as Gann did but in my mind putting together a cycle study is laying out the graph years ahead that one feels price will follow, not just dates of turns and then trying to correlate movement off of them! CIT dates are more of confluence or tuning in my work! When I first started to post I was not aware of the wide range of traders experience that are reading here! Through time I now am and will have to adjust somewhat to that mix! Best, joed


    “WITHOUT A SENSE OF TIME A TRADER LEANS TO SMALLER TIME FRAME CHARTS”

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  35. So far we're doing what I expected. I have updated the charts that I have been posting.. I've been lazy :-)

    Currently at 210 points straight up since hitting my Oct 3rd 1998 cycle low.
    http://tinyurl.com/3e47r44

    9 week cycle low pattern chart suggests sometime during the week of Nov 7th look for weakness.
    http://tinyurl.com/3mqursn

    Last hope for the bears at this cycle? I can't find another large cycle that aligns with this one, so probably not valid. To find a reliable cycle you need to find the count in the middle and have two or more cycles in alignment. The further out they are, the larger the move.
    http://tinyurl.com/3oy5etj

    Here's some dates from 1998
    http://tinyurl.com/3w5zdxo

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  36. I know this board don't pay much attention to astrological factors. But if this may help the ferocity of this rise. We have Jupiter making a trine aspect to Pluto, which gives a boost to the plutocracy(bankers and govt). The question to ask is what happens after the passing of this event influence.

    An attribute of Jupiter archetypes is excesses, hysteria, panic etc...we sure have seen some of it being manifested today. It will exact on the 28 Oct

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  37. I think the SPX will be down tomorrow...many questions emerging about the Euro deal, with holes showing up. THere are many important details to work out still too.....I think Oct 31st Nov 1st cycle low looks pretty good actually..

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  38. SC, please repost if this doesn't show up....

    I think what is missing I our discussion here is the fundamentals...no charts,cycles and other technicals are there but end of the day market emotions and fundamentals rules and we should put that in place before calling for any fundamentals.....

    I hope we discuss current issues here regularly...when we talk about silver why we are forgettung supply and demand picture? Just as an example.....

    Thanks

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  39. Excellent detailed charts as always ZigZag, thank you.

    Seems to be working fine now Stockboom.

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  40. I hope we discuss current issues here regularly...when we talk about silver why we are forgettung supply and demand picture? Just as an exampleswtor gold
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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete