Pages

Thursday, October 13, 2011

SPY - Extreme Time Cycle Due

This timing cycle includes the sharp November, 2008 selloff and the May, 2010 "Flashcrash".  This is a 2 day chart, and so the window that this cycle may be active would be Friday, and early next week.

2day Chart















The following is a smaller cycle due Friday roughly 2:30 ET.

60min Chart

71 comments:

  1. SC

    Good update, thanks.
    2:30 ET =2:30 pm ET, I assume.

    Also in the same 60 min chart, IS THIS the correct reading?:
    (L to R) Line marked 0= SPY Low, Line at 1= SPY High ;
    then Line at 2= SPY Low, so Line at 3= SPY High @ 2:30 ET (pm ?) Friday, Oct. 14, 2011.
    The sharp decline begins 2:30 pm ET +/- .

    Thanks for your answer/further comments.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So far nuthin but green candles

    ReplyDelete
  3. What happened to your cycle that was due yesterday?

    ReplyDelete
  4. you must be related to that jaywiz dude who keeps on telling people about '3 of 3' is next, and the 'trap door is open'.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I meant no offense with my last comment, simply curious what explains a shift from yesterday to today or monday.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "2:30 ET =2:30 pm ET, I assume.

    Also in the same 60 min chart, IS THIS the correct reading?:
    (L to R) Line marked 0= SPY Low, Line at 1= SPY High ;
    then Line at 2= SPY Low, so Line at 3= SPY High @ 2:30 ET (pm ?) Friday, Oct. 14, 2011.
    The sharp decline begins 2:30 pm ET +/- ."

    The 2:30 could be either a low or high. Let's keep an eye on that time and see.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi SC, it looks like SPY will retest highs from 2 days ago this morning, this market just seems so overdone at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anything can and will happen but to start zeroing in on the 60min charts for the actual high, that to me is a little bit desperate.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi SC,

    How could 2:30 be a low, unless you expect a huge decline prior to that today? Looks more like it would have to be a high, or a double top from Wednesday? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Blake, there are numerous cycles converging. They started to come due yesterday continuing into early next week.

    ReplyDelete
  11. "How could 2:30 be a low, unless you expect a huge decline prior to that today? Looks more like it would have to be a high, or a double top from Wednesday? Thanks."

    That could be more likely. I'm just pointing out that these are pivot points. They can be either technically.

    We have a lot of complacency in this mkt right now.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Isn't any one out there bullish? I believe ZIG ZAG mentioned yesterday that he is buying dips but besides that, all i have heard on this board is nothing but "bear talk" and the "coming collapse". Personally I don't feel comfortable with so many on the same trade so if there is anyone bullish, I would love to hear about it. (I know some may be intimidated with all the bears here but please, don't be)

    ReplyDelete
  13. PK, I don't think you are getting a meaningful sample of the market from the small number of people on this blog. I'd suggest you take a look at market-wide sentiment data such as AAII surveys, the Daily Sentiment Index, put/call ratios, Rydex bull/bear ratios, and so forth.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Spudthorpe,

    I realize that, I just wanted to hear from anyone on this site with bullish views.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Bull/bear comments are always welcome here. I like Zig Zag's work and appreciate his and others analysis, and actually my view isn't much different. We are both intermediate term bullish. It's just the very short term that is being debated.

    ReplyDelete
  16. PK...........

    I agree with both Zig Zag and SC. I think we dip and then rip.

    As a trader I am neither bullish or bearish.......I just trade what I see.

    People get wacked when they choose a side in the market and dig in.

    ReplyDelete
  17. PK, i am seeing important pivot point between weeks of 10/14/2011 and 10/21/2011. I know Its pretty wide range.. but its possible that we have our low already in place..

    ReplyDelete
  18. Bluemoon,

    I tend to agree with your overall assessment. In fact, I think most of the analysis here concurs regarding a dip in that time frame but where we differ (and it is healthy!) is the degree of that decline. I am in your camp on that one as I think 1140-1160 with a stretch down to 1100-1110. On the upside here even if we were to go higher another day or two, 1230-1240 should be the absolute cap so it really doesn't make any sense to buy here even if one is bullish. Now, according to my analysis if teh cash S&P closes above 1232, then all bets are off on the way back down, meaning it could be plenty nastier. I will take it one day at a time and assuming we do peak out here without closing above 1232, then i intend on start buying in the mid 1100's but of course i will be reassessing when/if we get there

    ReplyDelete
  19. EMINI DEC 240/3 MIN

    http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/9233/clipboard02x.gif

    ReplyDelete
  20. Gabe

    Thank you.
    Your ES target for close today is still ???? .

    Please let us know.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Gabe

    From your last daily chart:
    ???? = SPY 1125 +/- by 10/14, today.

    Still on schedule, or there is an update.

    ReplyDelete
  22. PK, im just watching and learning. Anything can happen between now and then, so i keep my ears open.

    Anybody here tracks Gold/Silver ratio? Time fibo is giving me possibly important low around jan 20, 2012, which potentially suggests that metals, specifically silver, are going to rally into that date big time. Low GSR target 23-25 ... that is if its going to be a major low.

    http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/3893/gsrfibotime.png

    ReplyDelete
  23. Financials have been quietly slipping today...

    ReplyDelete
  24. Broader indices (NYA and Value line) have failed to exceed their mid September highs while the S&P has. This plus the financials weakness should be enough to get "something" going on the downside

    ReplyDelete
  25. EMINI 3 MIN UPDATE.......NUTTIN FANCY NEEDED!


    http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/7629/clipboard033min.gif

    ReplyDelete
  26. Gabe according to your chart i see solid support at 1200 to 1204 and sip currently trading above that so does that mean we are in bull cycle odd sip? can you please explain or clarify? are you bull now? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  27. EMINI 3 MIN............


    http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/5366/clipboard033minnew.gif

    ReplyDelete
  28. Gabe

    what does the small filled Circles represent ?
    supp/resistance ? turn ?

    ReplyDelete
  29. EMINI 3 MIN.....UPDATE



    http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/8686/clipboard023minlast.gif

    ReplyDelete
  30. Thanks, Gabe

    What does your Master cycle say?
    when you can, please give an update.

    very stubbornly stuck in this range today.
    resolution which way, is the question ?

    ReplyDelete
  31. EMINI 3 MIN


    http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/9944/clipboard023minlast2.gif

    ReplyDelete
  32. Here we are at 2:30, let's see a reversal.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi SC please take this as a positive criticism i have noticed many times that you give your verdict on some index at particular time i can understand timing part but have noticed that market behave in opposite direction of what you been expecting; its almost like do opposite of you say and you make killing. just wanted to point out that. cheers

    ReplyDelete
  34. Emini 3 min



    http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5968/clipboard023minlast5.gif

    ReplyDelete
  35. Gabe,

    I am sorry but I don't understand what you are trying to say with this chart

    ReplyDelete
  36. Mr. Market is mentally crushing the masses (shorts)...again. Congrats to the longs who have held. Hedged a bit yesterday, but still net short, by far.
    The only bear cycle I am seeing: http://screencast.com/t/YroCljcgaHvk

    ReplyDelete
  37. Thanks, Gabe

    Looks like, a bit overshoot out of the triangle (blue),
    before the expected downturn ?
    But how much can you rely on such a short (3 min) term pattern?

    I am more interested in your daily chart, and Master cycle, patterns:
    how much down are they projecting?

    ReplyDelete
  38. If indeed the "risk" trade is back on, silver cannot be far behind

    ReplyDelete
  39. Not if the Euro craps out & the dollar catches a bid...jmho. I think PM's still have another leg down to go.

    ReplyDelete
  40. I can imagine quite atmosphere here becoz many people including me were hoping to see s&p below 1100! and instead it close above major resistance now next target is 1275 best of luck bears including.g me for next week

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hi SC I am a little unsure of this market now after reaching 1225, what is your view on today's price action?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Stockboom,

    Recall the excitement and "rah rah" atmosphere just two days ago as everyone was getting ready to celebrate the demise; well, the "quiet" of today could be a good thing for the bears.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Anon………


    I have been asked by side emails to show some basic day trading with the simple Andrews, S/R from a number of members on the site that are familiar with my trading! If it interests you fine, if not move on to the next post! It’s obvious that a 3 min chart has little to do with any swing except entrance or exits! What I am showing is strictly day trading what is front of us for those that are interested!

    It should be obvious that any swing trade would be met by stops and or risk/reward measurements and that it is up to every individual trader! If you are leaning on any one member for your decisions, I would suggest you stop and spend the nervous energy on learning technical analysis so that you can share your opinions and trade them with out needing anyone else or being influenced by anyone else! What’s more the thought that someone is a bull or bear is nothing more than a perception………..I am neither no matter what my cycle shows until the setup is acceptable in profit and risk! Only amateurs have the luxury of thinking like that ……….the professional trader has to stay in the moment to produce profit as he is only as good as his last trade! Imho Good trading to all! joed


    "Happy is the man that findeth wisdom, and the man that getteth understanding."-Proverbs.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Gabe.. did todays price action change anything in your calculations as far as the swing trade down to the <1100s on the eminis go?

    Same question to SC please.

    ReplyDelete
  45. 150 sp points in 9 days. Guess anything is possible with this market. I still will not be surprised if we get to 1100 next week! Weak shorts had been squeezed mightily in the past 2 weeks. Now only the strong hands are left. It is days like these when you start to doubt yourself about shorting this roken maket, that is when things are about to turn......

    ReplyDelete
  46. Muzz my view hasn't changed. The 60min time cycle chart is still in play. There is a 60 min accuracy window on either side. The high of the day was 3:30. So we will have to wait for Monday to see whether there is a reversal.

    The financials topped Wed and have made lower highs since. Bearish with financials already potentially leading down. Even SPX only traded 4 points higher than Wed.

    Bears have been softened up today, and that is what you want to see before a big drop.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Gabe,

    Your post is right on the money. It is obvious that many on this board rely both on you and SC for their trading decisions (and there is really nothing wrong with that) but each person must realize the amount of risk they are willing to take.

    SC,

    From my point of view, you have made some exceptional calls. I will be critical however in the good sense, I would like to see a bit more clarity with regards to how much you are willing to endure before the trade is deemed "out". There is nothing wrong with bad trades, everyone has them. What is wrong however is to keep waiting and hoping for something to happen without considering at what point to cut your loses.

    ReplyDelete
  48. "Gabe.. did todays price action change anything in your calculations as far as the swing trade down to the <1100s on the eminis go?"

    Sami,

    Really nothing has changed IF I get the setup and price does not overbalance to negate the down side.........at the moment I am flat, beside day trading, thus the day trades were easy to post!


    Pk......

    I diasagree with anyone taking any comments from a poster and turning them into trades.....NO ONE wins on that! No disrespect to ya but every trader needs to be able to make his own trade or he needs to invest in a hot dog franchise! I would nver make a trade from someone else's info! Good traing! joed


    “TRADE SMALL ENOUGH THAT IT WON’T HURT WHEN YOU LOSE AND LARGE ENOUGH THAT YOU STAY FOCUSED ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRADE”

    ReplyDelete
  49. Couldn't bear to see this close near the top of the white candle going into the weekend, too bullish for me. Also, a close over 1216 tells me we'll be hitting 1235 before 1200, so that will be my new short.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Gabe, it would help if you could add some commentary on the charts, like what are you looking for and what are your expectations. Helps people like me and others understand how you trade, cause from what I gather we can learn alot from you.

    ReplyDelete
  51. ss76

    As I stated these are not for everyone......

    "I have been asked by side emails to show some basic day trading with the simple Andrews, S/R from a number of members on the site that are familiar with my trading! If it interests you fine, if not move on to the next post!"

    They are meant for the traders that have basic Andrews background and are posted as close to real time as I can while trading...........so if you do not have the basic background just ignore them! Best...joed

    ReplyDelete
  52. Thanks Gabe, didn't even know what you meant by "andrews". In any event, that information could be valuable if you stated "targeting 1221 to short, cover at 1215". Then perhaps in looking at your chart others can understand them. Anyways, I can ignore them also, but prefer to learn how you people think and watch it unfold..

    ReplyDelete
  53. Gabe

    I just saw your post. I had to leave in early/late afternoon for something,
    and just got back.

    Of course I am interested. And your input "in near real-time" should help in improving my trading performance. (I saw rest of the discussion above!)
    "You are an inspiring trader." -- yes, because lot depends on proper and timely execution.

    Now how do I get in touch with you, your profile says [live.......dot com] as
    email address: is that still valid ?

    " gaberocks11 said...
    Anon………


    I have been asked by side emails to show some basic day trading with the simple Andrews, S/R from a number of members on the site that are familiar with my trading! If it interests you fine, if not move on to the next post! It’s obvious that a 3 min chart has little to do with any swing except entrance or exits! What I am showing is strictly day trading what is front of us for those that are interested! ..... "

    ReplyDelete
  54. Anon......

    You can reach me at:

    trakktrader80@gmail.com


    Good trading....joed

    ReplyDelete
  55. This feels an awful lot like 2009 when it looked like the Market was topped, and it kept going, and going, and going.

    We are now into earning season, and with G20 meetings this weekend, and a build up to next weekends Euro summit with an expected 2 Trillion package being drawn up, I am concerned we'll see a rally sustaining the rest of next week.

    Gabe, SC, anyone else, interested in your thoughts on this. SC, your chart called for the high happening Thursday AM, but now we are into the weekend and clearly your timing cycle is either wrong, or late. For the reasons I just posted, I think its probably wrong as I can't see what will dampen the market with earnings being reported daily which so far are not as bad as the market was expecting.

    ReplyDelete
  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  57. my views for sharing..

    http://timecycles-timer.blogspot.com/2011/10/15-oct-thoughts.html

    ReplyDelete
  58. SC's timing cycle is hopelessly wrong - yet again. All the weekly momentum and TA indicators are on the cusp of turning upwards. And then there's the rare Zweig Breath Thrust which was triggered this week - and last happened in March 2009.

    A "severe decline" by October 14th-17th? Sure.

    What a load of rot.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Excuse me but the last timing cycle I showed on this site was for a decline into Aug 8-10. It was correct.

    It is premature to say that the current cycle is wrong. Wait and see.

    Statistically the sharpest rallies occur in bear not bull mkts.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Not sure if tom is getting this ZBT from Dan's blog, but I hardly think grazing 1220 constitutes a continuation of a new "bull" trend.

    In addition, I don't give much weight to commenters who pop out of nowhere and calling themselves "right."

    March 09 and now are not comparable. March 2009 reached max bearishness after a long period of extended bearishness. The biggest problem I have with this rally is the short squeezing on low volume and how "certain" people are that this rally will continue. In March 09, we had the minority believing the rally would continue. I would agree with tom if this was short squeeze + heavy volume.

    I'm still looking for another down move and rallies like these test everyone's mettle.

    ReplyDelete
  61. SC, thanks for the site and I think you will be proved right! Everyone trades on their own accord, and owns the responsibility for realized gains/losses. I for one am grateful for your insight, and appreciate the hard work you put in to this “FREE” blog sharing your technical analysis. Posters should keep their criticism constructive, and if they disagree with your work offer their perspective with a thesis, not just blatantly bash. The quality of your work along with contributors like Gabe, offers the little guy a chance to be successful in this Casino. Thanks again, and keep up the excellent work

    ReplyDelete
  62. I agree with PZY completely. SC provides his analysis for free to all of us. He put his time and energy in this blog. We trade according to our own decisions, should never blame anyone if the trade is going the right way, YET! Time will tell. It is true that so many people "thinks" that the bottom is in at 1075, and the market is going to charge higher due to earnings seasons. The faster the rally, the more suspicious it is. I do believe a big drop is coming...

    ReplyDelete
  63. I have to agree with SC - I just went back and read the archived posts, and he had made the call for a capitulation low and subsequent large bounce on August 9th, which turned out to be exactly right.

    There are many reasons to look for a severe decline this week; let's wait and see what happens.

    ReplyDelete
  64. the question is ultimately how big a drop will this come out to be? Many are looking for that B wave or whatever in elliott speak which would bring us down to 1140 or so before rocketing higher to the 200 DMA. That's one viewpoint. The other viewpoint is the extreme drop down to 1000 or so which SC is seeing before rocketing higher. I think either of these scenarios is possible and when it comes to trading it boils down to probabilities. I think 1140 and up is likely but also the drop down to 1000 has a good possibility because this scenario would MORE likely generate enough ammunition to catapult the market back to 1300. Either way, we need a pullback next week and soon, both for the sake of bulls and bears alike. We will just have to see what ultimately happens if the S&P does get down to 1140.

    ReplyDelete
  65. SC..............

    And ppl wonder why good traders drift into the clouds.....just read Tom's immature comments and it's clear..I will be polite hear and leave it at that, as if he ahs been a great addition to your blog oranyone else's for that matter! In my original forum I had 6 or 7 pro traders and we would just get rid of attitude and disrupttive ppl quickly! Keep up the good work and your generous personality!

    On another note I would advise traders to get off of targets rage and be more conscious of time and just use trailing stops into targets and in the end the time period! This is the way I teach trading! imho joed

    ReplyDelete
  66. Well said Gabe and others. Perhaps it is premature to know if the cycle was wrong. However what will cause the drop? Earnings this week will likely be solid given the companies reporting (except for the banks)....

    That is the reason I think the S & P rises this week, not to mention that the Euro Summit is expected to come out with something very convincing for the market, thus it should rally the rest of the week.

    If not, what do you people think will cause the drop? I think the drop will happen at the end of October, not next week.

    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  67. SS76,

    Aren't rallies supposed to end on GOOD news? If earnings are reasonably good, "buy the rumor/sell the news" can be enough reason to cause a decline.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Just a note.............

    It would serve all cycle traders to when they state a time period to state it as cycle pressure is down to a date or up to a date and leave out targets or any direct thought that they use for trading (sharp drop etc.) ............especailly here on this blog! With pro traders it's different as they are not hanging on every word and phrase as they have their own work........I for one will go back to the way I have termed time on ny own site! Best, joed

    ReplyDelete
  69. HI Spud. Yes, Rallies end on good news, which is why I think the Euro summit will be the last of the good news, and the drop happens after that.....we'll see I guess.

    ReplyDelete