VIX was up in August and is now up again in September on Monthly chart. Two months in a row!
The perfect storm is brewing and it is coming this month. SPX has failed at 3,350 and the 50 dma has crumbled.
Hurricanes and wildfires are ravaging both coasts with another hurricane due next week. Conditions are ripe for volatility.
Monthly Chart
Give it 3 to 4 weeks you will see VIX around 50.
ReplyDeleteYou know the old saying: Don't let a good crisis go to waste.
ReplyDeleteThat applies doubly going into an Election. Especially this Election!
sc,
ReplyDeleteIf the VIX goes to 50 in 4 weeks ----were will UVXY be????
that will be alot more than 35????
So what will be spx if vix at 50
ReplyDeletebelow--3200
ReplyDeleteSPX target I estimate halfway between the 50 and 200 moving average on the weekly. About 2,975.
ReplyDeleteUvxy aint acting like it
DeleteSC: so if i understand well is possible to buy this S&p500 low for a long market in october to new historichal high in november?
DeleteUvxy---what will be the estimate???
ReplyDeletetrump----speaks at 2 pm
ReplyDeleteUvxy annd vxx maneuvered so badly
ReplyDeletexlk puts would have been bettet
ReplyDeleteThe VIX will spike, but the bulk of it will occur later as SPX is already near the bottom.
ReplyDeleteComplacency is still sky high. It's still early.
ReplyDeleteSo we rally from here
ReplyDeleteNo
DeleteBradley turn date Hi is September 22nd the lowest 25th of September UV XY doesn't turn me on at all we are down 250 spx points and goes nowhere so what if we drop 100 more it might go up 2 bucks
ReplyDeleteWe'll see about UVXY prices. It is so early UVXY may still have downside. Until we can confirm a low in UVXY it is early to calculate upside target.
ReplyDeleteSo we'll see. I'm thinking it may make sense to take some profits next week during the hurricane week.
That's why UVXY isn't doing much yet. Because the bottom for SPX is far away...
ReplyDeleteIt's true though and your points are all valid guys. We can see clearly UVXY is not the best vehicle early in the selloff, but it makes up ground rapidly later.
ReplyDeleteI’m holding long tqqq over the weekend. Average 117.33
ReplyDeleteIm right there with ya
DeleteSC, when will be the best moment to go short in sp500?
ReplyDeleteThe best would have been September 3rd but soon..
DeleteSC, if you sold UVXY next week, is it due to the way it is currently acting (like you explained) or because you think the market is going to head up some? Or both?
ReplyDeleteIt's just a matter of getting the best entry for UVXY. We see that UVXY has been coming down with SPX. A bounce in SPX and imagine how fast UVXY comes down.
DeleteWhich would then present the perfect entry.
Deleteso if vix goes from 27 to 50 then uvxy should go to 80 from 20
ReplyDeleteNo because VIX has been moving higher in legs this time rather than in March straight up.
Delete"$VXX Buyer purchased over 6,600 10/2 48 calls towards the close on Friday, a 90K bet that VOL will be way up soon."
ReplyDeleteThats probally a dumb move i cant see this moving to 48 by then and if it did i would probally start shorting it
ReplyDeleteSPX chart coming.
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete