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Thursday, April 2, 2020

$VIX - Support Soon

VIX nears the middle support, and is anticipated to reach that level soon.

Once the middle support is tested a rise in volatility is expected.  TVIX, UVXY, and VXX are consolidating currently.

2 Day Chart

















UVXY has been in a declining channel for several years, and is likely to transition into a rising trend.

2 Day Chart















89 comments:

  1. I've been trading TVIX for $20 to $40 a pop.

    It may cool a little to around $260. Overall rising towards $500.

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  2. SC - do you think SPX and commodities like oil/silver are going to bottom together around first week of May?

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    Replies
    1. It looks like a high late April low in May.

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  3. Hey my friend,

    Could you clarify your long-term view on oil and silver?

    You think that they are in a multi-year downtrend, with silver bottoming at 7$ and oil at $10?

    Silver or oil should bottom first?

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    Replies
    1. The commodity bear market has a lot to do with the current state of markets.

      Oil topped in 2008. 12 year bear market.

      Silver topped in 2011. 9 year bear.

      Oil probably bottoms first. This year. Silver in a few years.

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    2. We were looking for $18 oil. It bounced around $19.

      It can go much lower this year. $12 to $15. Possibly sub $10.

      Oil is being propped up currently as USA fills the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Once the reservoir is filled the price will plummet.

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    3. Widespread bankruptcy coming for Oil companies.

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    4. What about nat gas? It peaked even before oil...

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    5. SC - where do you expect silver to be when gold is back to 2k?

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    6. Natural gas has been bouncing at this $1.70 level for 10 years and looks to be forming a low. Nat gas doesn't have the demand problem. Oil has a demand problem.

      The issue with gas is there is a glut of supply as a result of a byproduct of oil wells. What will happen is oil wells will be shut in, and supply will drop for nat gas.

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  4. Sc market down vxx and vix down

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    Replies
    1. Yes, volatility has been leading. VIX hit the high in the 80 range. SPX only reached a low after VIX peaked.

      So VIX may hit a low first then SPX high.

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  5. VIX coming down. The 50 dma is 38. Low 40's VIX.

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  6. Could you envision SPX at 2850 while the VIX reaches your mid target? around 40

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    Replies
    1. It doesn't seem SPX has the strength to do that well yet. Mostly likely VIX low 40, and then VIX bounce and put in a higher lower and at time SPX can hit it's high. A number of weeks.

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  7. 2860 SPX is 15% gain. Vix down to 39.8 is 15% also.

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  8. Buffett selling airlines. Sell the losers keep the winners. Smart.

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  9. What do you see for Bitcoin? Long-term uptrend or long-term downtrend? Is a new all-time high possible in the years ahead?

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    Replies
    1. Bitcoin resistance at 8,000. I'm expecting fractional lower low this year 4,000 to be tested.

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    2. New all time high after that.

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  10. Sc r u still expecting 1550. When

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  11. Deflation wave followed by a reflation wave - gotcha
    Stay safe!

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  12. Bitcoin exited at 9,775. Next entry 5,500 target 8,000.

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  13. BTW 4,000 was hit in March. So I guess you are seeing more 3,500

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    Replies
    1. Bitcoin only reached 4,500 in regular hours. 4,000 was only seen in the overnight session.

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    2. I'll post the Bitcoin chart with all the targets and timings.

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  14. SPX on track for the 2,700 target exactly as expected.

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    Replies
    1. sc: where do you see a good entry point ( price / time) for a short on S&p500? are you waiting a lower low in the next future ?
      many thanks..

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    2. Reviewing the levels, I think this will fail rather quickly.

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  15. SC... do you think spx has put in the low for the year?

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  16. any natural cycles are displaced by monetary actions, thus trying to keep guessing on gold and silver is fruitless....the cycles and gold are both up....and going much higher...

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  17. This bear market likely to continue lower for SPX.

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  18. Because people have been trained over many years to look for quick bottoms they don't recognize this as a lasting bear market.

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    Replies
    1. Be more modest my friend, you have been saying this over the past few years. Bear market could be this year, or next, or next. As you said many times before, "step by step".

      All the best

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  19. We do need to have patience and yes one step at a time, but this is quite exciting to see how volatility ETFs behave in a bear market.

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  20. Are are looking for a low in TVIX still? Or do you think it is on its way to $500?

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    Replies
    1. Waiting to see. TVIX may see just under the previous low of $2.25 which would be an entry for run to $370.

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  21. SPX turn date April 14th high.

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  22. So far volatility ETFs are holding strong with higher low even as SPX is making a higher high.

    SPX could go flat and that would drive volatility lower.

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  23. Replies
    1. Hi, Rose2787..
      SPX will hit the top Tomorrow,

      maybe around 2792

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  24. Replies
    1. SVXY made such a massive drop, it will need time before it is in a position to rise.

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    2. I'll wait until next week. TVIX can still come down a little, but very impressive strength.

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  25. VIX expiration next Wed. Likely nothing major before Wed AM at earliest.

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  26. SC, next high around the 14th, next low around May 12th sound about right?

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    Replies
    1. Let's wait and see this week. I'd like to see a little more of this price action.

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  27. SC has spx has two gaps below. Will they be filled or 2600 to 2800 it will oscilliate

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  28. Sc this weekend lot of technicians saying low is i . 3076 brea . We go to 3400. There are two gaps around 2600 and 2300. Do u still see lower low. When

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    Replies
    1. Louis I believe it is poorly phrased grammar. Maybe Rose is saying 'low is in. 3076 breaks. We go to 3400. She thinks the direction is up but has a worry about gaps at 2600 and 2300 that appear to be causing her angst.

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  29. Low in . They say. If we break upside 3076 than to 3400. Tfnn interview by chapman on thursday at 8.30 am. He called the low on march 21. 2 days earlier

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  30. Dead cat bounce:

    "A temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions"

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  31. These people on cnbc are just dumb bastards starting from cramer

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  32. Replies
    1. Hi SC .. whats the upside from your buy of TVIX @ $198

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    2. I'm out TVIX at $235.50. Quick profit.

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    3. nice profit
      when will you rebuy TVIX ..
      I assume you sold as SPX will rise ?

      Delete
  33. It's the April 14th turn date.

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  34. Excellent!!!

    "SCApril 8, 2020 at 7:48 AM

    SPX turn date April 14th high."

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  35. We also have the VIX futures expiry tomorrow. The previous expiration was March 18th which was the peak of the panic. TVIX made a high on that date.

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  36. This expiration looking likely to coincide with a volatility low.

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  37. Replies
    1. There are other dates in May.

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    2. Sc what are ur target spx for april 24

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    3. I have a plan for this, but let's see some confirmation.

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  38. jesus... beauty of an entry SC...

    #boss

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  39. Oil charts coming soon....

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  40. Sc can u please tell us what u expecting on april 24. When spx 1550

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  41. Sc ...
    Can you share with us how you come up with your turn dates ?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. For SPX I have developed a Cycle with the turn dates. It has been extremely accurate.

      I can post these timing charts sometimes and explain it in more detail.

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  42. And there's the reaction to the turn date...

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  43. I had a turn every day (april 14-18, 20 and 28). I guessed april 18 had the best cards. Wrong. Again, you beat me. Congrats.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! Interesting, well let's keep an eye on this closely.

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