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Friday, October 9, 2020

SVXY - Canary in the Coalmine

SVXY is incredibly weak and has still not made a higher high from June!  SVXY is the canary and it is singing loudly now.

Yes SVXY is finally ready to make a higher high and when it does...

Daily




60min Chart












145 comments:

  1. Remember we had a $40 target for SVXY. It took a detour in September but is ready to see the $40 now.

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  2. I've been waiting patiently for this move to finish, and if you look at the daily chart SVXY will get overbought on this move.

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  3. What would be the target price for the high on the s&p?

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    1. Relative to SPX, SVXY is trading better on this move. SVXY is testing the previous high.
      SPX is not. SPX has a shot at double top with SVXY making higher high.

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  4. Thanks SC, it has been so long I forgot about the SVXY target

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  5. So now it looks more like grind-up or melt-up into the election, and then down after, which has been my expectation for a while

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    1. A big hint here is that the VIX futures curve peaks on Election

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  6. Replies
    1. How much of a pullback are you looking for?

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  7. SC, how much sp500 for the elections?

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  8. VIX Put/Call Ratio
    3.02

    Since 2008 only a handful of times ... which saw vix explode within a short order...

    I don't think vix is going much lower at least in the near term...

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  9. I accumulated sqqq this week. Will hold

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  10. Anticipating a blood both either from 12-23 Oct or 19-30 Oct. Most people are signaling for 19-30 Oct period, so if algos do not want most people to profit then we should expect a blood bath from Black Monday 12 Oct. Lets see

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    Replies
    1. Oct 26 week is a panic cycle week. M. Armstrong. That lines up with my own cycle week. However next monday tue may be a temp high. All the best every one.

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    2. New moon on oct friday 16th. We may get the Short term high closer to the 16th. I am only looking for 5 - 7% correction. NOT A BLOOD BATH. I will start scaling in tuesday if we see new highs.

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    3. Sc your timing cycle high for uvxy is middle of November ?

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    4. Market is pricing in stimulus deal which can be sell the new event + coronavirus cases are spiking and NY has started to close school & non-essentials.
      SPX 3209 is a critical level, if that fails then it will create panic and people may start getting margin calls.

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    5. I hope you are right Louis. For the time being, I will be conservative with my down side expectations.

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  11. Sc how high do you see the s&p going before turn ?

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  12. guys,

    There are alot of people getting hurt on this board.
    UVXY is not selling off like it was.
    one or two more days
    we have to be closer to a bottom than a top on UVXY.


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  13. I think when the bond market opens up tommorow we'll get a sell off....

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    Replies
    1. Not yet.. still holding on to 4500 shares from 20 bucks .. taking heat lol

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    2. Will add if it gets down to 13s 14s..

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  14. Added more sqqq at 19. My avg 21.1. Will save my ammo for later this week (hopefully I don’t need it)

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  15. guys,

    this seems to be topping on the Wednesday

    UVXY---seems to moving slowly

    normally a sign of a top

    lets see?


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  16. Loaded up tqqq short spx needs to drop below 3500

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  17. Next turn date is coming Oct 15th and Carnival is getting slammed.

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  18. sc,

    UVXY is cupping up


    You are still expecting 13 to 14?



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  19. So oct 15 low and than spy up again

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  20. coming on 3 p.m. here comes the criminal ppt team

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  21. For what its worth. Seems to jive with what this board is leaning toward..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptWJsNBsipc

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  22. An important event is coming. The Ant IPO.

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  23. World's largest Ant IPO is getting ready to list on Shanghai and Hong Kong.

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  24. "Ant, a domestically incorporated affiliate of Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba (BABA.N), is seeking a dual-listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong as soon as this month, and needs CSRC approval for both listings.

    The delay in CSRC approval has forced Ant to postpone a hearing with the Hong Kong stock exchange, the last part of the approval process for the Hong Kong listing, the people said."

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  25. Is Oct. 15 turn date a high or low?

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  26. sc,

    it took a week for the uvxy to drop from 20 to 16

    Tom Demarks has this friday as a possible top for the market

    maybe 15???

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  27. yet to be scene!

    Nobody knows that yet!

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  28. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. I am still waiting to place my orders for UVXY. If we penetrate 3463 like a hot knife thru butter, than I will lose my opportunity for some nice gains, That said, I believe we still have one more wave up in the over all markets over the next several days. All the best every one.

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  29. louis lombardi, I apologize in not getting back to you on your previous question. Here in Canada, we had our Thanks giving long weekend. Family duties come first. LOL

    I am looking at the possibility of 3189 as the down side.

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  30. Pheonix,

    I guess you are looking for a double top(3588) -correct?

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    Replies
    1. Correct, although I will start buying one batch or two prior to the POSSIBLE double top. I will scale in 3 batches total.

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  31. Pheonix,

    I am going one load at 16-15-then 14

    lets see what it does,

    i like the Dec 18 options?

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  32. Kudos to you Dunn6ster. You have a game plan, unlike NEWBIES where they go all in on one lump of funds. A lot of newbies are just throwing their darts at the wall and hoping it is going to stick. Louis is successful, because he has a game plan. His trading style is not for me, I would not be very successful at. I work within my own parameters where I feel comfortable and able to sleep at night. I like Louis idea of scaling in thou. I am going to wait for the 15.00 UVXY level. I may miss out if the market decides to tank and that is okay. Their will be other trades just around the corner. Discipline Discipline and more Discipline creates greater odds in having winning trades. As for the options. I will not comment on at this time, although I use them . All the best to you.

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  33. Pheonix,

    Thank you,

    Have a good evening

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  34. sc

    I think the double top may not make it

    we may break the upward trend

    please advise if you will go long the UVXY

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  35. Bang right on the October 15th turn date!

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    Replies
    1. SC - are you still waiting for UVXY 13? Any idea when it will hit?

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    2. Great call, well in advance! now if these levels can hold up into Election and...

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  36. Right on SC, what is the next turn date now?

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  37. sc,

    The market should reverse today (Market low)--UVXY--down to 13 to 14

    correct?

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  38. Hong Kong down -2.06% London-1.73% Germany-2.49% Dow -0.36%

    Anyone still believe the Fed doesn"t have a trading desk`

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  39. SC you did it again! Like you said, right on the turn date. I know it's been asked, but next turn date is when? Around Nov. election?

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  40. hilarious: another useless meaningless statement from Phizer, to attempt to juice the markets.That's all they got now.Stimulas and vaccine bull.

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  41. They sound like desperate crackheads

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  42. also in 2008 during the recession delinquents were at 14% they are at 17% now.The only thing that is keeping this together is people are allowed to relief their mortgages, car loans, credit cards to the back end.Not paying them.What happens when this ends.Lord help us

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the economy definitely worsening over time for the majority. It will have brief moments when it looks good, but they fail every time and there is nothing that can stop it.

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  43. Well seems like either uvxy basing in the 16s or heading to 13s which means SPX 3640

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  44. guys,

    When is the next turn date?

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  45. WOW, now I know we are getting close to a market top. Zero hedge with an article with PORN STARS selling stock market courses. LOL

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    Replies
    1. Sign Of The Top? Porn Star Pitches 'Trading Seminar' - "It's The Right Time To Get Into Stocks"

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  46. I think the next day is 22 or 23 of October

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    1. my next local turn date is 22nd (+-1 day). If Monday's price action can confirm local low, we can expect rally into 22nd

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    2. 22nd worked out as a low. Next local cit dates I have are 28-29 Oct. Alex

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  47. I am looking for a temp Low before we head back up to a Double top or slightly new highs near the election.

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  48. That comment was referring to Lady S comment. ( 22nd or 23rd)

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  49. As for turn dates I have a couple minor dates end of November but the next turn dates I have are December 7th and December 16th.

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  50. Volatility incoming soon. Election fear coupled with second wave fears.

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    Replies
    1. SC - do you have any timeframe on when we'll hit VIX 50?

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  51. My mailman recomended me buying a stock lol run for the hills

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  52. only 15 more days of stimulus talks LOL

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  53. VIX up with SPX up today..hmm..

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  54. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-fed-open-to-private-sector-collaboration-in-possible-digital-dollar-134913548.html

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  55. The msilman and robinhood gonna lose it all lol

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    Replies
    1. IF we just made a lower high in SPX that failed to breakout...could see sharp selling over next two weeks with loss of 3400 then 3200 SPX...

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  56. pheonix

    are you expecting the 3563 to hold this time???

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  57. I will be going long late this week, after this weeks low to probe the 3563 and higher level. Panic cycle next week , which very well could catch the bears flat footed. Mr Market may need to clean out all those bears before the long awaited correction. Do not kill the messenger here, I am just stating what I see at this moment in time. All the best.

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  58. Looks like 3400 then 3625 zhe 3100
    Covered 1/3 of tqqq short

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    Replies
    1. Louis, Looks very close to what I have in mind. Good Luck.

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  59. I am looking for the possibility of 3400 to be pierced which will bring in the bears. No matter what happens by Thursday or Friday I will be going long. Good luck to all.

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  60. well someone knows something.60 point swing on the nasdque in two minutes

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  61. Pheonix,

    are you going long the market or the UVXY.

    there is no reversal yet????

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    Replies
    1. I will be going long. NOT UVXY YET. Waiting for a fake out move to the down side to go long.

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  62. SC - SVXY made a new high to around 38, short of 40...do you think that was the top?

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    Replies
    1. SVXY did make the higher high. $40 would be good then it will also be overbought on the daily.

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  63. SC .. when do you expect the VIX to shoot up?

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    Replies
    1. We may have to wait for the reopening to complete. Mainly the borders to reopen.

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    2. It is already a favorable environment for volatility though.

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    3. VIX futures in backwardation right into June!

      http://vixcentral.com

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    4. The border is not going to open up any time soon

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  64. Here is some thing to think about.

    DJI CYCLES INTO 2022

    20 yrs from 2002 Low = 2022
    40 yrs from 1982 Low = 2022
    60 yrs from 1962 Low = 2022
    80 yrs from 1942 Low = 2022
    90 yrs from 1932 Low = 2022
    126 yrs from 1896 ATL = 2022
    108 yrs from 1914 closing of the NYSE = 2022
    144 yrs from WD Gann's 1878 Birthday = 2022

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    1. I fully agree agree, Louis. I will have other shorter term cycles based on ganns work.The Jan 2021 time frame is a major sensitive time for a POSSIBLE Low. Depending on how we finish off this topping pattern.

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  65. pheonix,

    according to your data--in 2022 the 20 year cycle low on the Market is Due?

    Please inform us if you go Long on Friday?

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    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Dunn6ster. Oct 2002 is the time frame.

      I will be scaling late this week with 3 separate batches.

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  66. we are the next Japan with the Fed owning 80% of everything.Another 800k in new claims only to be spun as a good thing.Insane.

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  67. I sure as heck didn't expect the market to be churning around so close to the election.... I was thinking we would have 100 point swings mostly to the lowerside

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  68. have not seen the big down yet! --waiting on the move!

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  69. pheonix,

    please inform me if your going long the market,

    i still don't see any extremes???

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    1. I bought 2 batches spuu 2x etf will buy 3rd batch later today or monday. Approx average price 67.88 I am long. When I get back to my office, I will elaborate on my reasons.

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  70. The sp was close to 3444 when I was buying.

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  71. I missed out on my third batch, hopefully i can grab it by monday morning. From a technical, fundamental, economic and political point of view it does not make sense to go long. But my gut instincts says buy. Kudos to Lady S and Alex for their turn dates. The markets are coiling for large move, shortly. ( within the next 7 trading days) I would not be surprised to see the over night futures down or up 75- 125 pts. Dangerous trading times a head. Good luck to all.

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  72. Pheonix,

    I believe you could be right, we have a large cup and handle.
    They are trying to form the handle now as we go into the election. The election is simple--do you want the gasoline and the utilities to double or do you want status quo--that is the vote. They tried the handle once before and it was rejected. The Major analyst don't see enough buying yet on a close -- a little higher and the bulls will get their handle---in the next two or three days you will see the direction. I will wait on conformation about 3080 on a closing basis, but the volatility will increase shortly---be nimble!




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  73. correction----- a close above spx 3480---is pretty much the line in sand--ne nimble!

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  74. Crossing 3465 is what I am looking for. If it does, we are off to the races to 3520 and shooting to the 3570 in short order. It is a risky trade, but one I feel comfortable with.

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    Replies
    1. If we do indeed sell off, 3370 is where I would buy another batch.

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  75. Pheonix

    agreed---only time will tell!

    Have a good weekend!

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