in 3070 is the last daily important support, although the important support is the SR3 of the nasdaq because there is no more below, look: https://analisisbolsa.com/hay-que-apretarse-los-machos-porque-vienen-curvas/
UVXY hasn't done much yet on this SPX selloff. Great!
A characteristic of volatility is that it tends to occur towards the bottom of selloffs in SPX.
We have the benefit of seeing that the selloff is underway and we can still position for volatility at very good prices with all the information we need to know.
Imagine. I ask you would you short SPX today at 3,500? You wouldn't say no.
You will have the opportunity to position nicely for a volatility event coming soon... We know it's coming.
Probably the market will head a bit lower yet, but not a lot yet. Couple things. Everyone can see this breakdown now. Also hurricane Teddy has turned into hurricane Teddy bear lol
I don't think we are ready for that deep. I say it because in the bigger picture we are still in the reopening phase. Borders haven't opened or really even international flight. Once these events occur we will see bigger drops.
SC: First of all many thanks for share your work. Just to understand what you think: now we should see a S&p rebound until 3430 from the low at 3217 ( futures contract). From that price market should go down again until 15 october with target around 2975 or lower. Than we can go long on S&p500 for a big rally to new historical highs in november.. the top on the market should be also when carnival top around 25$ as you wrote if i remember well. around 3700?? in dicember??
The numbers are far worse than what had been estimated in March. 200,000 yesterday with no end in sight.
"Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and emerging face of American leadership in the fight against the virus, estimated that the U.S. may see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, the deadly disease caused by the novel coronavirus. A deeply-respected authority on viral diseases, Fauci assisted in guiding the federal response to SARS, MERS, Ebola and now the novel coronavirus."
Once the pandemic is dire they will then tell the American people that extreme action needs to be taken. It is then that the announcement will be made...
I know it probably comes as a shock, maybe seems strange. The Merger has nothing to do with a Virus and everything to do with China. If you think USA is nervous about China imagine how Putin feels. Russia is right next to China.
Both USA and Russia recognize the threat of China. Both countries see a mutually beneficial relationship.
Oil stock looks relatively cheap here compared to where Oil is trading. Crude has been holding quite well and looks like may try to make a run for $50.
We are still in the reopening. Opening of borders and international flight would be a positive at least in short term for oil stocks.
Oil stock was hit when Exxon was removed from DOW in August.
Keep in mind I tend to be early on Oil turns and oil is volatile. Possibly oil stock could see lower first especially if we are underestimating the impact of ExxonMobil. However, still I am sure there is money to be made even if lower oil stock in short term.
There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine....look at SARS vaccine had to be pulled bc of DEATH when exposed to wild type SARS after vaccine ...cause hyper immune response...15 years later still no SARS vaccine
Re: USA/RUSSIA alliance against China...agreed! The enemy of my enemy is my friend. China did this Covid19 deliberately...been planning this for years for living space. Go see what their top General Chi Haotian was speaking 15 years ago about unleashing bioweapons on the world...
“Would the United States allow us to go out to gain new living space? First, if the United States is firm in blocking us, it is hard for us to do anything significant to Taiwan and some other countries! Second, even if we could snatch some land from Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or even Japan, how much more living space can we get? Very trivial! Only countries like the United States, Canada and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.
Therefore, solving the 'issue of America' is the key to solving all other issues. First, this makes it possible for us to have many people migrate there and even establish another Chinaunder the same leadership of the CCP. America was originally discovered by the ancestors of the yellow race, but Columbus gave credit to the White race. We the descendants of the Chinese nation are ENTITLED to the possession of the land! It is historical destiny that China and United States will come into unavoidable confrontation on a narrow path and fight. In the long run, the relationship of China and the United States is one of a life-and-death struggle. “
“There has been rapid development of modern biological technology, and new bio weapons have been invented one after another. Of course we have not been idle; in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind. We are capable of achieving our purpose of 'cleaning up' America all of a sudden. When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focused instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country. Biological weapons are unprecedented in their ruthlessness, but if the Americans do not die then the Chinese have to die. If the Chinese people are strapped to the present land, a total societal collapse is bound to take place. According to the computations of the author of Yellow Peril, more than half of the Chinese will die, and that figure would be more than 800 million people! Just after the liberation, our yellow land supported nearly 500 million people, while today the official figure of the population is more than 1.3 billion. This yellow land has reached the limit of its capacity. One day, who know how soon it will come, the great collapse will occur any time and more than half of the population will have to go.
It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths, But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, we'd have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party. “
Quite possible on these numbers. Concerning bigger move down, need to see nature of reaction after touching higher numbers. It can be we are putting weekly bottom here
SC, looking at one of the last time the VIX was at $50, it was 04-02-2020. Comparing today’s price with 04-02-2020: UVXY $20.78 / $60.41, SQQQ 25.63 / $103.25, SOXS $43.14 / $219. Something to think about.
VIX 170 was the 1987 high and will be tested ultimately in this volatility bull market, but that is longer term. The trendline is around 120 and rising.
In the short term VIX 50 is a valid target. 70 is also coming and would be a test effectively of the March high, but that is looking out a little further I think.
SC - do you think SPX will go lower from here and bottom next week. Getting confused as to what you're suggesting in reference to VIX? Are we still headed towards VIX 50 in October?
SC - when do you expect the bottom in SPX? first week of October or closer to election day? Thanks
ReplyDeleteAs an estimate we have October 15th turn date.
DeleteWhat are your downside price targets ?
DeleteWe have some numbers to look at on this chart. 3,070 blue. 2,975 pink and then also that gap down lower at 2,900.
DeleteYea but thats not short term
DeleteHereee's Johnnyyy!!!
ReplyDeletein 3070 is the last daily important support, although the important support is the SR3 of the nasdaq because there is no more below, look:
ReplyDeletehttps://analisisbolsa.com/hay-que-apretarse-los-machos-porque-vienen-curvas/
Spx should bounce up to 3420
ReplyDeleteLouis what will bring that bounce.
ReplyDeleteJust watch into thursday im saying 3430 it could go higher
DeleteThen we could smash down to 3200 or lower
SPX had double breach on Friday. Both this support and the 50 day. Which is why we see this large gap down.
ReplyDeleteUvxy seems to be subdued
DeleteBought tqqq 110
ReplyDeleteSold UVXY $21.15.
ReplyDeleteA lot people complain about UVXY but actually it's a good thing. Let me explain.
ReplyDeleteDXY about to breakout above 94 - could hammer gold and markets...
ReplyDeleteWhere will u buy uvxy now
ReplyDeleteUVXY hasn't done much yet on this SPX selloff. Great!
ReplyDeleteA characteristic of volatility is that it tends to occur towards the bottom of selloffs in SPX.
We have the benefit of seeing that the selloff is underway and we can still position for volatility at very good prices with all the information we need to know.
Imagine. I ask you would you short SPX today at 3,500? You wouldn't say no.
You will have the opportunity to position nicely for a volatility event coming soon... We know it's coming.
Is it worth going long on something like svxy or tqqq?
ReplyDeleteIt depends what type of trader you are, would have to be very nimble.
DeleteI would rather plan to focus on next UVXY entry than market long.
DeleteI like your thinking though Scott. I have a plan for that too. I'll let you know when. It's going to be special...
DeleteProbably the market will head a bit lower yet, but not a lot yet. Couple things. Everyone can see this breakdown now. Also hurricane Teddy has turned into hurricane Teddy bear lol
ReplyDeleteSo that's the bears problem.
DeleteBought tqqq at 109.45
ReplyDeleteShorted uvxy at 21.90
ReplyDeleteBlught udow 70.05
ReplyDeleteBought
DeleteSold VXX Calls
ReplyDeleteI think 3000-3100 then rebound 3200-3300 and finaly 2300-2400 for December, what do you think?
ReplyDeleteI don't think we are ready for that deep. I say it because in the bigger picture we are still in the reopening phase. Borders haven't opened or really even international flight. Once these events occur we will see bigger drops.
DeleteIt is a significant selloff though
Delete2300 no way
Deletebought 200 udow 70.30
ReplyDeleteYour a monster
DeleteSc. If u sold uvxy. How far rally of spx to buy uvxy
ReplyDeleteUVXY has 50 day in $23.
ReplyDeleteUVXY I like $13 entry.
ReplyDeleteWe did well and fine tuning the entry for a large move in UVXY.
Deleteu are no planning going long for spy
ReplyDeleteNo SPX can still see lower. Also I suspect that what bounce SPX sees will be sharp but quick. That's the bulls problem.
Deletegot out uvxy 21.60
ReplyDeleteI don't think uvxy will see 13 anytime soon.. possible in december/jan
ReplyDeleteUvxy 13. So we rally in spx to what level
ReplyDeleteSPX 50 day is 3,344. Give or take.
DeleteYour expecting uvxy to drop
DeleteTo 13 on a 100 p0int run up on spx
I eaz thinking 3430
yes
DeleteUVXY 22.80 and 25.80s
ReplyDeleteI think we'll tap those at the minimum before the election for sure
Ok thanks
ReplyDeleteBack in UVXY 20.88
ReplyDeleteLETS Goooo... gideeeeap bebe
ReplyDeletewill add at 20.50
ReplyDeleteout at 20.88 .. will reload lower...
ReplyDeleteThank you for the updates SC. That was a nice profit!
ReplyDeleteYou are most welcome. The next plays are larger....
Deleteaapl up today, enough said
ReplyDeletedamage control
ReplyDeleteIm expecting s big ass rally into
ReplyDeleteFriday 3420
Tqqq to hit 130 in my opinion
ReplyDeleteStill holding tqqq. Should have bought more at 109... hindsight is 20/20
Delete130 coming at least in my opinion
ReplyDeletethere is no fear anywhere in this market, not even here.I hear dueling banjoes, we all know what happens next
ReplyDeleteYour right no fear
DeleteSC: First of all many thanks for share your work. Just to understand what you think: now we should see a S&p rebound until 3430 from the low at 3217 ( futures contract). From that price market should go down again until 15 october with target around 2975 or lower. Than we can go long on S&p500 for a big rally to new historical highs in november.. the top on the market should be also when carnival top around 25$ as you wrote if i remember well. around 3700?? in dicember??
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
Let's look at the market one step at a time. It is best.
DeleteCarnival has come down as I had suspected, but the time is coming for the borders to reopen and international flights which would greatly benefit CCL.
DeleteYes $25 is the number to watch.
DeleteSPX let's watch the 50 day. 3,347 today
DeleteIm looking at 11546 in nasdaq NQ we had that abc down pattern and now we should see abc up if we break above 11586 then we could see 11700 area
ReplyDeleteIt does notlook like 3420 is coming looks like 3360 to 3380 area
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. coronavirus death toll tops 200,000.
ReplyDeleteCancer kills 600k a year id be more worried about that
DeleteOh heart disease kills almost 700k per year
DeleteAverage age 85 with 2 or 3 other health concerns.
ReplyDeletePoint is they will use it to accomplish what they want.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteAll they want is the American people working from home!
Sold udow 74.18
ReplyDeleteCovered uvxy 20.35
ReplyDeleteMy average in tqqq is 115
ReplyDeleteI’m still holding at 117. Will look to sell near 130
DeleteThe numbers are far worse than what had been estimated in March. 200,000 yesterday with no end in sight.
ReplyDelete"Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and emerging face of American leadership in the fight against the virus, estimated that the U.S. may see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, the deadly disease caused by the novel coronavirus. A deeply-respected authority on viral diseases, Fauci assisted in guiding the federal response to SARS, MERS, Ebola and now the novel coronavirus."
Fauci is a incompetent moron
DeleteWhat will happen next is these vaccines will fail one after another. They will then tell us how dire the pandemic.
ReplyDeleteOnce the pandemic is dire they will then tell the American people that extreme action needs to be taken. It is then that the announcement will be made...
ReplyDeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteAnnouncement
???
what we are closing down again!
No
ReplyDeleteOne country has already approved a vaccine. That country is RUSSIA!
ReplyDeleteAnnouncement will be made:
ReplyDeleteUNITED STATES merger with RUSSIA!!!
There will be war first!
ReplyDeleteAll bullshit
ReplyDeleteThere already is a war. That war is with China!
ReplyDeleteUvxy not acting like there us a drop coming this week
ReplyDeleteSc what does it means in term of vix and spx
ReplyDeleteFor now we wait. The market will tell us everything we need to know.
DeleteI know it probably comes as a shock, maybe seems strange. The Merger has nothing to do with a Virus and everything to do with China. If you think USA is nervous about China imagine how Putin feels. Russia is right next to China.
ReplyDeleteBoth USA and Russia recognize the threat of China. Both countries see a mutually beneficial relationship.
Historically China and Russia have been aligned. So this is a big change.
DeleteJust as in business, mergers are done to achieve scale. China has 1.39 Billion population.
USA has 325 Million. Russia has 145 Million.
There you see!
ReplyDelete"Fauci tells Congress ‘it might take some time’ before the public gets a coronavirus vaccine"
We are about to make a lot of money!
ReplyDeleteSC are you waiting for UVXY 13? That would be SPX 3800?
DeleteWaiting for UVXY.
DeleteSC - do you expect UVXY to hit 13 in October? will we get a major stock market top then?
DeleteIt should. A significant high anyway.
DeleteSC, do you have the turn date after oct 15th?
DeleteSo if we bottomed at SPX 3209...could rally into October 15th?
DeleteOct 15th. Then next is end of November. Middle December and then year end.
DeleteRob, I'll review.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteif we close below SPX 3200
Should we test the lows again???
thank you!
ReplyDeleteMarkets going up 3344 tommorow
DeleteBought smaller position GUSH $23.55.
ReplyDeleteOil stock looks relatively cheap here compared to where Oil is trading. Crude has been holding quite well and looks like may try to make a run for $50.
DeleteWe are still in the reopening. Opening of borders and international flight would be a positive at least in short term for oil stocks.
Oil stock was hit when Exxon was removed from DOW in August.
I'm thinking GUSH could see $35 maybe $40.
Keep in mind I tend to be early on Oil turns and oil is volatile. Possibly oil stock could see lower first especially if we are underestimating the impact of ExxonMobil. However, still I am sure there is money to be made even if lower oil stock in short term.
DeleteSPX roasted again. The 50 day is going to roll over if the price stays down much longer.
ReplyDeleteUvxy doing nothin
ReplyDeleteThere has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine....look at SARS vaccine had to be pulled bc of DEATH when exposed to wild type SARS after vaccine ...cause hyper immune response...15 years later still no SARS vaccine
ReplyDeleteRe: USA/RUSSIA alliance against China...agreed! The enemy of my enemy is my friend. China did this Covid19 deliberately...been planning this for years for living space. Go see what their top General Chi Haotian was speaking 15 years ago about unleashing bioweapons on the world...
ReplyDelete"The enemy of my enemy is my friend"
DeleteHahaha very good Payday!
https://rense.com/general85/China'sPlanToConquer.htm
ReplyDelete“Would the United States allow us to go out to gain new living space? First, if the United States is firm in blocking us, it is hard for us to do anything significant to Taiwan and some other countries! Second, even if we could snatch some land from Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or even Japan, how much more living space can we get? Very trivial! Only countries like the United States, Canada and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, solving the 'issue of America' is the key to solving all other issues. First, this makes it possible for us to have many people migrate there and even establish another Chinaunder the same leadership of the CCP. America was originally discovered by the ancestors of the yellow race, but Columbus gave credit to the White race. We the descendants of the Chinese nation are ENTITLED to the possession of the land! It is historical destiny that China and United States will come into unavoidable confrontation on a narrow path and fight. In the long run, the relationship of China and the United States is one of a life-and-death struggle. “
General Chi Haotian
Very interesting Payday! Thank you! Hmmm...
Delete“There has been rapid development of modern biological technology, and new bio weapons have been invented one after another. Of course we have not been idle; in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind. We are capable of achieving our purpose of 'cleaning up' America all of a sudden. When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focused instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country. Biological weapons are unprecedented in their ruthlessness, but if the Americans do not die then the Chinese have to die. If the Chinese people are strapped to the present land, a total societal collapse is bound to take place. According to the computations of the author of Yellow Peril, more than half of the Chinese will die, and that figure would be more than 800 million people! Just after the liberation, our yellow land supported nearly 500 million people, while today the official figure of the population is more than 1.3 billion. This yellow land has reached the limit of its capacity. One day, who know how soon it will come, the great collapse will occur any time and more than half of the population will have to go.
DeleteIt is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths, But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, we'd have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party. “
General Chi Haotian (December 2005!)
Mother of God!
DeleteShiver me timbers!
DeleteLong udow 70
ReplyDeleteShirted uvxy 22
ReplyDeleteShorted
ReplyDeleteBought tqqq 108.45
ReplyDeleteThe s p x has very strong support at 3208 and 3187
ReplyDeleteSold tqqq at 115.25 That I bought this morning at 10 8.45 I'm gonna hold my core position
ReplyDeleteAnd the trillion dollar bazookas come out
ReplyDeleteCovered uvxy short it just does nothin
ReplyDeleteHolding core positions in udow and
ReplyDeleteTqqq
Maybe next week 3320 3330 For bigger move down
ReplyDeleteQuite possible on these numbers. Concerning bigger move down, need to see nature of reaction after touching higher numbers. It can be we are putting weekly bottom here
DeleteSold udow 71.37
ReplyDeleteI’m out of tqqq
ReplyDeleteSold hslf tqqq for 6 point gain
ReplyDeleteHalf
ReplyDeleteI plan on selling all long position by 29/30 of september
ReplyDeleteIm looking for 3330 spx maybe 127 128 tqqq looking for a smashdown
ReplyDeleteIn october
SC, looking at one of the last time the VIX was at $50, it was 04-02-2020. Comparing today’s price with 04-02-2020: UVXY $20.78 / $60.41, SQQQ 25.63 / $103.25, SOXS $43.14 / $219.
ReplyDeleteSomething to think about.
Interesting, I ran the number for the last time the S&P visited close to 3000 and UVXY was slightly higher percentage wise than TQQQ and SOXS.
DeleteSold tqqq premarket 128.34 cha ching
ReplyDeleteExcellent trade!
DeleteShorted tqqq 129.60
ReplyDeleteCovered tqqq 127.88
ReplyDeleteSpx could see 3350 possibly 3385
ReplyDeleteAnd then 3000-3100 in October?
DeleteSC, Are you still looking for a SP low in first week of October?
ReplyDeleteJust reviewing things now.
Deleteare we still looking for vix 135 and when or is that off the table now
ReplyDeletevix chart pattern points to 55 to 70 in Oct/Nov according to Sven Hendrich https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex-jl6dAlvM
ReplyDeleteVIX 170 was the 1987 high and will be tested ultimately in this volatility bull market, but that is longer term. The trendline is around 120 and rising.
ReplyDeleteIn the short term VIX 50 is a valid target. 70 is also coming and would be a test effectively of the March high, but that is looking out a little further I think.
ReplyDeleteUvxy finalky getting smashed
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteSc
ReplyDeleteThe VIX target of 50 is short term---meaning less then 90 days???
Wooooooo hahahahaha
ReplyDeleteVIX futures curve has aligned with presidential election!
http://vixcentral.com
SC - do you think SPX will go lower from here and bottom next week. Getting confused as to what you're suggesting in reference to VIX? Are we still headed towards VIX 50 in October?
DeleteSc what does it mean
ReplyDeleteVIX curve was peaking first week of October, but it has shifted directly to the Election.
ReplyDeleteNovember 3rd
What does it mean exactly?, An important low the 3 of November?
ReplyDeleteHigh for VIX futures
DeleteThanks SC, maybe a high oct 15th, and then vix 50÷ by the election?
ReplyDeleteI still think we have a blow off epic top coming this year, so maybe after the election.
ReplyDeleteSc but uvxy vxx not moving now a days
ReplyDeleteuvxy---on its way to 17 or 18
ReplyDeleteown December calls
after that debate last night
There has to be a spike sometime!
It might go lower than that
ReplyDeleteMaybe 15 there is a gap at 18 on the vix
The question is Will that gap be filled now or later
ReplyDeleteWe get above 3365 today we gotta watch 3385
ReplyDeleteAnd then 3000-3100?
DeleteShorted tqqq 134.54
ReplyDeleteCovered tqqq 132.35
ReplyDeleteScaled in some SPX shorts between 3350-3385 today...keeping a tight leash in case it wants higher...but let's see if that's a reversal starting...
ReplyDeleteCharles Nenner says Dow 5000 mid 2022, yes thats 5000
ReplyDeletebuy gold ,gold stocks , buy vix and sell bondshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OivBgReOwgE
I think it should hit 1790 first
DeleteCharlie nenner smoking crack again
ReplyDelete3429 should come on spx then down
ReplyDeleteOr maybe 3449 whic h is .618 fib
ReplyDeleteThen down
nenner was calling for 5000 in 2012 ,13,14......15
ReplyDeleteShorted tqqq 136.50
ReplyDeleteCovered tqqq 135
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete