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Friday, March 20, 2020

TVIX - Meltdown Underway

TVIX made a parabolic rise, and started to meltdown yesterday.

The 50 weekly moving average is at $146, and should provide support next week.  TVIX should hold over that in the $250 level. 

60min Chart

















SVXY finally broke out of a relentless downtrend.

60min Chart















78 comments:

  1. SC: a 32.5 of SVXY for the end of march is in line with a 500 point up of s&p500? or we can see weaker impulse? is there contradiction between the 2 things?

    many thanks..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SVXY is relatively conservative in the way it is constructed.

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    2. Low was 2,280 SPX. Let's assume 2,700 to 2,750 next high.

      I estimated 500 points. By this calculation if the high is 2,700 to 2,750 as shown on the SPX chart that gives 420 to 470 points which is right in the ballpark.

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  2. SPX 200 dma 2,641. Should at least hit that next week possibly overthrow.

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    Replies
    1. 2,700 to 2,750 possible on overthrow.

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    2. Once SPX hits the upside target, what would be your downside target? Do you expect a lower low? Thx

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    3. The SPX chart has confirmed and so I'm expecting it to play out with the next high 2,700 to 2,750 SPX next week and a low 2,450 the week of May 4th.

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    4. SC, is there a typo in your post? Those numbers and dates don't look right per your previous posts.

      Thanks

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    5. I have some other dates in April to watch also.

      But let's review next week and we will have further confirmation of the timings.

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    6. Some dates are major and some are minor.

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  3. Plan to hold my long positions until late next week.

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  4. I haven't done anything with Oil yet Best timing to enter the week of May 4th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I must admit having filled up at the pump yesterday. For the first time in decades actually left smiling.

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  5. The 50 weekly for TVIX is $146. Even an undercut of that is possible at $110.

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  6. Using log scale TVIX clearly forming high.

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  7. Markets are still a little soft which is okay. Unemployment coming out later in the week. So looking like a low this week.

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  8. What a great year for traders!

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  9. We should aim the profit bar high this year, extremely high!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sc... are you still holding upro ?
      From the 2400s Spx ?

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    2. SVXY is holding well and up, but yes UPRO is still down. Plan to increase later in the week.

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  10. unless the VIX goes low again before another huge and fast leg down, I missed the good trade when I sold UVXY options for .76 then watched them go to 113.0...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was a big move for certain. If we add up the next couple moves can total the same size as this one.

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    2. Thx SC, I am looking forward to trading the moves, but potential is limited when the VIX is high.

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  11. Is this a bottom for a while, or just the first leg of a huge down?

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    Replies
    1. There is another negative cycle in April.

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  12. SC: no market rebound.. too late to sell. try to hold positions.. 2100 S&p good support i think. what do you think? many thanks..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rebound next week likely. Yes it may slide a little more this week.

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  13. Hi here Europe, the German Dax and Italian FTSE MIB are just forming a bottom since last week, in area 8500 and 15300 respectively, we are basically waiting for “your” bottom to enjoy the big bounce with target the 50MA…for everyone.
    Thanks SC for sharing your precious contributes I am actually following your blog since 2015 but I never posted thoughts. Anyway, I really appreciated the contributes of everyone here, it is always a pleasure to follow your trade/opinions.
    @Dennis T, Thanks for the radioparadise link… self-isolation here too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In Canada, glad you like it. Voluntary self isolation to do my part

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    2. Thank you very much my friend! Glad to hear from you!!

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    3. Thank you for the perspective from Europe!

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  14. Sold SVXY $31.90 aftermarket. Target reached.

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  15. Sc what u expecting this week spx will go lower than 2100

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  16. TVIX similar to the South Sea Company bubble of 1719.

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  17. Sc u think we get up to 30 again ur thoughts I was thinking 2700 spx

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  18. SC, this is interesting, haven't seen this before. 50 dma and 50 wma are around the same level https://imgur.com/a/CruqedG

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  19. https://imgur.com/a/CruqedG

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  20. Sc svxy did not go up. Vix kept on rising

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  21. Replies
    1. For employment numbers?

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    2. TVIX chart played out. SVXY hit resistance and dropped.

      Unemployment is coming. Also they are delaying voting on stimulus bill.

      Delete
  22. SPXU 50 weekly $25.16. Support.

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  23. Aren't you looking for 50 wma on TVIX ultimately?

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  24. VIX does not seem to agree with this rally in the least

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  25. This is a strong daily chart TVIX, UVXY, and VXX.

    VXX can see a fresh high soon.

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  26. Sc if that's the case how do you expect to see 2700 on Spx then?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Volatility is starting to build a base, slowly rising, but SPX still has upside as well.

      Delete
  27. Record Unemployment but it's not a shock to the market because everyone knew about it last week.

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  28. US jobs market is going through a rebalancing.

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  29. Morgan Stanley chief investment officer
    Hands me a laugh he says now is the time to buy stocks Why didn't he tell us to buy 4000 points lower

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  30. you want to cancel that call on gold and silver, Gold parabolic move is coming....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Silver deep bear market coming on 10 years.

      With weak Silver, Gold is hampered. Sure Gold has performed better for last few years. No question it is trying to test its 2011 high, and it will, but it's still weak over the last 10 years.

      Deflation in commodities.

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    2. This will surprise many. In time of greatest crisis, the US dollar is the most liquid, best safe haven.

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    3. US dollar index rising since 2011 when Gold peaked. The index is heading for the 2001 peak.

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    4. you have been wrong on gold and silver all year, its now about to go parabolic, no one beleves in the dollar and the paper short is about to implode at comex......spot prices are much higher.....you need to learn about gold before talking about it....

      Delete
  31. Stay in the USD. Avoid Canadian or Australian dollars especially, those commodities producers and stock markets are the worst, falling precipitously!

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  32. SC - silver is leading gold...it’s already below the 2016 lows...means gold might reverse soon and join it with a big plunge...

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    Replies
    1. That is what is most interesting is that there is this imbalance between Gold and Silver.

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    2. TIPS plunged too...if next downdraft is because of liquidity crisis then gold will be under 1000 in next few months as USD soars.

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