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Monday, August 26, 2013

Silver - Before/After Cycle Update

Silver continues to follow the large scale Cycle with the rise from the turquoise Cycle low.

June:

"Silver is likely bottoming out at the turquoise arrow Cycle low. The rally next for Silver and Gold should be very sharp according to the Cycle. Price goes almost straight up from the turquoise arrow low in the Cycle."  

2day Chart
















Before:

2day Chart
















Silver Bear Market Cycle:


















65 comments:

  1. so when u expecting 2 more rallies and bottom will it bottom around 12-15 and about time period

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    Replies
    1. My long term downside target from when I called the Silver bear market to start in 2011 is $6.50. 1.5 years.

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  2. The turquoise arrow low for Silver is expected to hold for this year. Silver can see a little higher, but not that attractive at these levels according to the Cycle.

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  3. SC where do you see the VIX topping in the fall?? Is it still in the 40's?

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    1. Yes, the VIX is cooling from the orange Cycle high last week. VIX should pop to 15's this week but the red Cycle low for VIX in due in Sept.

      From the red Cycle low around 40 VIX.

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  4. Hi SC:

    Do you anticipate Gold heading lower from here for September? Also, if the broader market is setting up for a serious decline, would you expect Gold to start going up sometime in September? Thanks for all that you do.

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    Replies
    1. I think there is some resistance approaching for Gold soon. For Gold choppy and probably higher in Sept/Oct. The Silver Cycle is approaching a peak.

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  5. "The U.S. government will hit the debt ceiling and be unable to borrow money to pay its bills in the middle of October unless Congress votes to increase the federal debt ceiling, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said Monday".
    Consequently, it is very likely to expect a sharp increase in gold prices and a sharp decline in the share markets.
    SC, you don't believe in the "safe haven" trade anylonger ?

    Thanks for your thoughts

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  6. The Gold/Silver safe haven trade worked during this time frame and I expect it can work for a while longer for Gold.

    However, the Silver Cycle is approaching a peak not much higher from current levels. The easy money has been made since June for Silver especially.

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    Replies
    1. The Silver Cyle is approaching a peak but Gold may top after Silver I suspect.

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  7. Has todays action changed anything for your outlook in VIX short term?

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    1. Still the same. This is the pop from the hollow candle Cycle low for VIX.

      SCAugust 23, 2013 at 11:42 AM

      "1 Candle on the Cycle has been about 1.5 days for VIX roughly. After the hollow candle there is a small pop for VIX. So a dip for SPX can be expected late this month."

      SCAugust 23, 2013 at 8:14 AM

      "In this VIX Cycle after the orange arrow there are two candles. The hollow red candle low is the second candle after the orange arrow in the Cycle.

      Surprise, today VIX has a hollow red candle on the daily chart!"

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    2. I suspected that UVXY would see a higher high and it did today.

      SCAugust 22, 2013 at 8:16 AM

      "It is possible that UVXY may still put in a higher high than yesterday later this month. I say this because right after that hollow VIX candle, VIX make a little pop there for a lower high.

      I suspect this may be a higher high for UVXY."

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    3. So still another drop to VIX red arrow? 13's next week?

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    4. Should be heading to the red arrow next according to this Cycle 11.50-12.

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    5. The VIX Cycle shows a very steady slide for VIX to the red arrow and that implies a steady rally for SPX.

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    6. Would Syria war trump all that? Black swan &all

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    7. Well I'll go with the Cycle timing until proven otherwise.

      What I will say is this. The Cycle is pointing to the crash starting in Sept. Therefore, there is not much difference other than short term timing.

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  8. What are the odds that today - rather than 8/21 - was the "orange arrow" in your VIX cycle?

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    Replies
    1. It will be easy to tell for sure soon enough next few days.

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  9. you see a crash in September yet you are NOT short ...why. If you feel that a crash is coming you MAY miss It no ? what happened to big picture positioning.

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  10. SC...we are going down to revisit the June lows without you. LOL!!!

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  11. If the current highs hold on TVIX and UVXY we have a very strong outside reversal week.

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    Replies
    1. I have a big picture chart coming for UVXY.

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    2. Perched on the edge of the cliff, but not quite time yet imo. A couple more gyrations first.

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  12. VIX didn't trade any higher today than yesterday, and this week only went 50 cents above the orange arrow Cycle high.

    The pop after the hollow candle low in the VIX Cycle was a lower high in the Cycle, but VIX did see a slight higher high of 50 cents from last week. I don't see that changing anything. The model still looks good.

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  13. Quite frankly there are too many bears around right now. The opposite from early Aug.

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  14. sc, how high it can go, 1680 or new high

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    Replies
    1. Very unlikely for the Dow. Yet, a new high looks quite possible for some indexes.

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  15. "SCAugust 28, 2013 at 8:01 AM
    Quite frankly there are too many bears around right now. The opposite from early Aug."

    Are you kidding?

    CPCE closed quite low despite prices behaving poorly over the past many weeks. Very complacent and no sign of panic.

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    Replies
    1. That CPCE reading was pretty clearly an error. At 0.34, it was by far the lowest value I've ever seen, and after displaying it for a few hours, the CBOE web site removed it and displayed an error message instead.

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  16. Hy, Sc I think you should take a stand for the crash of September. We are at August 29 ... . Thinking of entering the day before is somewhat difficult. Expect this crash for 2 years and surely it is better to anticipate a few days and take short positions strongly, instead of 2 years and anticipate approximately 400 points SP500 .

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  17. SPX has held quite well around this level for a week now.

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  18. Not yet. Important to let this VIX Cycle continue to play out.

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  19. what do you see SC for VIX from here today? going down or up?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. According to the VIX Cycle, VIX should grind lower for weeks next.

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  20. Can't remember the last time VIX short ETF's held up with a rising market. Ths is very significant IMO.

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    Replies
    1. Ummmm that was VIX long ETF's of course not short ;)

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  21. I think it is a bearish signal strongly coupled with the fall in oil prices. Tomorrow is the last session of the month and anything can happen, but the signal is strong enough given today.

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  22. SC, are you going to short metals then? Gold/ silver or both?


    Do you still expect panic rally in gold?

    Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. Once the rally for Silver from the turquoise arrow low completes then Silver should flatten out and consolidate for a while sideways according to the Cycle. That will take months so now Silver may be boring for months.

      Then Silver resumes the bear once again. So yes once the choppy phase is finishing I plan to short Silver.

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    2. Gold is a little different story. This Cycle is based on Silver so have to interpret what happens with Gold. I think Gold may be due for a short term dip, but may still rise further in the months ahead.

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  23. Sc, is it not possible that VIX orange arrow top was June 24 and we spent july/august grinding down lower with red arrow bottom hit last week?

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    1. I am considering whether the red arrow may have occurred in mid-Aug. If the VIX goes much higher then it will have support around 13.50 to 14.

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    2. We'll see how things shape up next.

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    3. I am believe that usd/chf is very bear and eur/usd strong bull in next months maybe more 1.5 year trend think know study.
      This like are bull by silver in theory but your cycle is bear in silver to finish 2014 or more time.
      june 2001 to 2003 summer was very bull in eur/usd and not much in silver,choppy.
      I AM BELIEVE that silver can not down 15$ in next 18 months if eur7usd not down in trend.
      Bye.

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  24. Sc, I am pondering a scenario where a relief rally happens going into Fed meeting to one week or so after the Fed meeting to around Sept 25 bringing 1750+ or so on S&P. Let's say if this is the case, looking at your cycles, what could you say about greater decline after this rally, if there are chances of it happening during October/November timeframe, and if there are such chances, what would be the upside potential in terms of percentage for UVXY if one gets into it say by Sept 25. Thanks so much!

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    1. Yes agree. Top out SPX in Sept, and down huge. I think UVXY will retest the low around $32 maybe a little lower. Once that occurs then UVXY targets $160 to $200.

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  25. SC, if the red arrow have occurred in mid-Aug, according to the cycle chart, VIX would now shoot over the orange high, 21 area back in June?

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    Replies
    1. This rally in the market should persist for a while. I'll do an update on the Cycle soon.

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  26. The next week maybe monday and tuesday like down in stocks Dow,Wtic,Brent this two can have Big up,"Syria war" brent to 120 or more.In september,trend easy up in rally to 1 week october level 130?Then time more weak wtic.Dow should not loser levels 24 june this year.

    I am thinking a time weak global begun december to february in eur/usd,here can are you next cycle bear in silver.
    April 2014 is very time weak in stockmarket before rally may-june... Sell Dow this month.
    Stockmarket not like crash 40%-60% before 2017 .
    Bond market is not easy but i am seeing price down next 2 years and siderway crazy up-down rangue.10 years tnx rate more wish run to rates 5 that 2 not bad ,rates up in sprin cycle bull market.

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  27. I think we need to consider a continuation and acceleration to the downside in the broader market starting next week.
    Whilst there may be a lot of analysts looking for lower lows and bearish sentiment prevailing, it pretty much appears to me that every man and his dog is looking for a bounce from here into September before a resumption of the down trend and yet when I look at the market I see paltry rebounds of lower lows right through August.
    I am looking for test of the rising lower channel from 2011 around 14250 next week.
    Cheers

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  28. Very BULL stockmarket maybe mercury sun conjuction killed the bears.They like dream lost 14.600 level Dow Jones but not lost her wallet.
    Stockmarket like bull to november,wtic,brent...War chemical is very DANGUER in the next year.If the weapon is used in mass vx nervously extended to the European continent and escalation of the war to another level, the economy the very volatile bag scares. High risk. After November and as we bring the situation near to April, 2014 it deteriorates and in April great danger tension.World can to go crazy.

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  29. Replies
    1. Yes, I have a chart coming today for it. I think this rally for SPX starting and will persist for weeks.

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    2. I think VIX cools but support for VIX in the 13's range.

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    3. SC

      Is it possible you can post where you think we are at on the SnP chart or SPY? Thanks, s

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  30. SC,

    When you planning to put your update? why board is so quite?

    Thanks

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  31. Yes, I have a chart coming today. Not much action lately - 3 weeks of sideways chop for the market.

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  32. today is today! where is the update SC? LOL...hoping to see it before today's close to make a decision...

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  33. SC, I just wanted to communicate my stance after careful observation that the market looks prime for sell off early next week and will stabilize Thu, Fri next week. Then I will look for a rise into Fed meeting on Wed 18th, which will be disappointment as Fed will likely stay put, follow the same course and market can finish the remaining correction to end the month of September. That will be two months of correction sufficient with time length. I am looking for SPX to 1575 to end this correction in this scenario which looks very probable now. If this happens, I will be looking to go long beginning of October for a spectacular rise. Thanks!

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