Once point A is reached, the Cycle predicts a plunge to the red trendline at point P.
VIX has already tested a very important trendline as well.
2hour Chart
VIX has already tested the orange trendline going back to 2008.
3day Chart
Saturday, March 30, 2013
$SPX - Deja Vu Cycle Detailed Peak
SPX is thought to be approaching the Cycle peak at point A. The V-dip in late February and the choppy period during March were price behaviour specified by the detailed Cycle. These details are shown on the Deja Vu Cycle below.
Once point A is reached, the Cycle predicts a plunge to the red trendline at point P.
VIX has already tested a very important trendline as well.
2hour Chart
Deja Vu Cycle Peak in close detail. Notice the overshoot at point A!
VIX has already tested the orange trendline going back to 2008.
3day Chart
Once point A is reached, the Cycle predicts a plunge to the red trendline at point P.
VIX has already tested a very important trendline as well.
2hour Chart
VIX has already tested the orange trendline going back to 2008.
3day Chart
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This is a much better, close up, detailed view of the Cycle. Notice that the movement of SPX is almost identical to the detailed Cycle since the V-dip in late Feb!
ReplyDeleteInteresting quote on trading:
ReplyDeleteSmall retail traders typically trade in the exact opposite way as the large speculators and hedge funds. They gamble, trying to pick short-term tops and bottoms. Picking tops and bottoms consistently is damn near impossible so the majority of retail traders are usually losing money as they fight the trend. When the market does finally turn the majority of retail traders will be on the winning side, when this happens they typically take a small profit and close their positions then end up wrong and losing money, again. In the financial markets (especially the Forex market) money tends to flow from the majority of small traders into the pockets of the few large ones.
http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/COTvsSentimentIndexes.html
SC.
ReplyDeleteI sincerely hope you are right about the 1430/20s by mid May.
I do read your postings regularly, but these pages still generally read as a horror story of people who 'buy and hold'..when no one should be doing that with any leveraged instrument.
For the record, my primary target in the next multi-week down cycle is 1470s, but I do have a secondary of 1430/20s in May.
I think it really depends on the style of decline. If its too slow/choppy, we'll be lucky to hit the 1470s.
The bears, really need Q1 earnings to come in somewhat 'bad', and similarly for Q1 GDP - to be issued April 26'th
Regardless...
Good wishes for April/May
This should be an important week coming up. We still need to give some time and see the price behaviour as price just entered the window on Thursday for point A.
DeleteOnce point A finally confirms, then the Cycle should give insight into the behaviour of the decline, and it does look choppy particularly in the middle part of the decline. It will be helpful later to compare the price behaviour to the Cycle and fine tune price target levels.
All the best
I would say, that if we've at least broken below 1500 by end April - which isn't really too hard, then the 1430/20s look viable in May.
DeleteThe next thing that comes to mind then is the big question...
Does the next rally/bounce put in a lower high..or exceed where we currently are.
If its a lower high..then latter 2013 will offer the bears the first decent action since July/August 2011.
Otherwise, I'd have to believe we'll go the inflationary route of sp'1700/1800s by year end.
Now that would be a horror story..for all sorts of reasons.
Those are the right questions and I've been thinking about that a lot also. There should be another strong rally after point P in the Cycle, that much is clear. Whether that is a higher or lower high is unclear at this time, but don't think we'll go the inflationary route.
DeleteSC, what about UVXY?
ReplyDeleteWhere do you see it bottoming?
VIX itself has probably bottomed already at 11, and VIX has been holding off that level. However, it seems from some charts that VIX might still test 11.25 to 11.50 again. Now that is the VIX, and of course, VIX futures are different.
DeleteI'm going to look at UVXY levels a little closer.
SC, why do you think SPX will follow the silver chart in that particular time frame you posted above
ReplyDeleteIt has been following the Cycle for years already, therefore generally, there is every reason to expect that to continue.
DeleteThe behaviour of SPX has been been consistent with the Cycle. Last year, I named this rally the sharp rally phase since it should be sharp and it was. Looking at the details, the Cycle predicted the V-dip in Feb, and since then the price action fits really well.
UVXY goes down 10% per month....you can't chart it as it just decays.
ReplyDeleteWe probably have a 5th wave up from here to 1580-1600ish....we should then retrace 50-100 points. Personally I go for 50 points downside only & then its up to 1650.
Looking to buy UVXY soon....should get a move back to 9 at least I would imagine....its all about timing though!
It seems VIX may come down to 11.25 to 11.50 area, and that UVXY would be interesting.
DeleteLet's see how it shakes out this week.
Thought I would share this April/May peak pattern chart, very clean and telling. Buckle up! https://www.tradingview.com/v/KdAPR1G6/
ReplyDeleteBest of the Stock Market: https://sites.google.com/site/bestofthestockmarket/
Just looking at the Cycle a break below 1540 should confirm a move down for SPX. Break above 15.50 for VIX.
ReplyDeleteSC, your trade shows short from SnP500 1472... Will you hold it if SnP rallies to 1600 and higher?? Where is your mental stop? How much more pain can you handle?
ReplyDeleteOf most importance is the big picture Cycle. It is large and very bearish ultimately which requires plenty of patience. I'm after big fish.
DeleteImportant to note that at this point in the Cycle I would never be long. Either short or cash at all times. The Cycle is the stop so as long as the Cycle is intact then my positions stay in place. There is not a specific number since the Cycle is based on time, price, and more importantly market behaviour.
My positions are not overly aggressive currently. I would look to add to positions on confirmation of a peak or downturn.
I'm beginning to doubt if UVXY is even worth a day trade any longer. The VIX was up nearly 7% today with UVXY only up around half a percent.
ReplyDeleteRemember, UVXY doesn't track the VIX. It tracks the VIX short-term futures index, which is an entirely different animal. If VIX spikes but UVXY doesn't, it's because VIX futures were already elevated compared to spot VIX.
DeleteH, vix was down 8-10% last wed & thurs but uvxy only moved 2-3%....works both ways
ReplyDeleteSC, that VIX chart looks interesting...does symmetry mean that you are expecting vix to reah at leat the middle of the pink fork (68 or so)?
ReplyDeleteDuring the next bear market for SPX, I am expecting VIX to reach the high volatility zone in the 70's. That is a resistance zone for VIX, but it is actually quite possible to go higher than 2008 levels up to the extreme level 120+ for VIX.
DeleteIn the next bear market, SPX may not decline quite as much as in 2007 to 2009, but VIX could surpass 2008 levels given the current Cycle and market/economic environment.
What makes volatility etfs most interesting is that they did not exist the last time a bear market occured. TVIX rose 700% during the 2011 two month correction for SPX. In a bear market UVXY would do many multiples of that % move.
At this rate, UVXY will need several hundred % move just to make up its losses for the past 18 months!
DeleteXIV looks frothy up here but wont sell until there is a proper impulse move down...
Your sharp rally call in Nov seemed crazy yet here we are...I guess I'll stick around to see if the "drop to 1420" crazy call materializes as well...
I have a big picture fractal chart that I could post that would show how UVXY should act during major down Cycle for SPX. It's an eye opener!
DeleteHello SC
DeleteAre you planning posting it anytime soon?
Thanks!
Yes, coming soon!
DeleteYeah...that would be interesting to see!
ReplyDeleteI'll post that soon.
ReplyDeleteindusequities called the $7.30 range in UVXY to be hit last week and we are here. Anyone have any thoughts on if this could be the low for awhile?
ReplyDelete"Liked the bounce from 7.60, but 7.30 is still in the cards. Lets see if we can get 8.95 for position management."
I've been still waiting to see if VIX can come down into the 11's.
DeleteI'm going back into the decaying beast at $7 with a target of $9-$10.
ReplyDeleteI think this wave 5 up in the S&P will stop short of 1600, might get to 1585 but that's it.
My logic behind that is that many of the S.E.Asian mkts are starting to breakdown...could be the precursor for a 50-70 point fall in the S&P.
I averaged in UVXY at $7.32. In regards to SpudThorpes comment above. UVXY more closely follows what VXX does as opposed to VIX, I didn't realize that until recently and that does account for some of the diffrence since one is short term and one is longer term volitility.
DeleteYes, that's right. VXX is 1x the VIX Short-Term Futures Index, and UVXY is 2x the index (tracking daily).
DeleteI cashed out today at $7.70. Been burned too many times holding this one too long. Will regroup and wait for now.
DeleteThere might be a lower low coming for UVXY, but starting to shape up quite nicely. Short term charts coming.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteis it me or is the a falling wedge pattern in the april vix futures from the latter half of february:
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-vix-futures-contracts?page=chart&symbol=VIJ13&domain=futurespros&display_ice=1&sym=VIJ13&width=550&tblwidth=550&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=CANDLE&density=M
Yes, that sure looks like a wedge in the April VIX futures. The futures bounced off the lower trendline today.
DeleteThank you for the chart!
if the april futures break up through the wedge, where would the measured move be? around 18?
DeleteThe measurement for the wedge would be around 17.50 or so. Keep in mind these wedges are often tricky. Often they expand into larger wedge.
DeleteLet's see how it plays out in the days ahead.
New chart posted.
ReplyDelete