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Monday, July 11, 2011

$SPX - 60min Update

So far the SPX plan from July 3 has been working well as shown below with the Before/After charts.

There isn't much I would change to the plan.  The markets may need to spend a little more time firming up at these levels than shown in the lower chart.  Maybe we could see a small bounce and retests for example. 

Next, another strong rally back to 1340's SPX is anticipated.    

60min Chart

30min Chart (from July 3)

92 comments:

  1. SP500 buy any pul lback until august 17 2011!

    http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/06/sp500-60min-buy-any-pullback-until.html

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  2. Silver continuing lower this morning. Looks like another good call SC. I think it will be tought to spot the bottom though on this one

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  3. Covered all S&P shorts, and sitting in cash for now. I feel it's best to book profits, but timewise may not be quite ready to go long yet either. We may just churn for a few days with some small bounces.

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  4. SC,
    silver still shortable here?

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  5. I'm still short the PM's. Silver has been weaker, but the trend seems to be weakening for Gold also.

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  6. Silver closed yesterday at my main Red trendline, but today gapped down way under it. This is very bearish. It seems to me Silver leading down, may need a breather now before continuing lower, waiting for Gold to fizzle.

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  7. so, SC, you see a bounce here for silver before continuing to down ? If so how far it bounce? Thanks

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  8. Not necessarily too much of a bounce. Smallish bounce or sideways.

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  9. Great call on both S & P and silver SC.

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  10. Very nice thanks SC.For an amateur like myself who is not a chart experts like you guys, i just need silver down some more then i can jump out with my shirt and wait for silver in the 20s, I'd load up and take couple years investing nap without worries

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  11. Hi SC:

    Have been following your blog for the past several weeks and an amazed at your discipline, conviction and calls.

    Do you follow the DX and Euro? If so, I would like to get your thoughts on a potential long term bottom on DX, and a long-term top on Euro; where are these likely to be and when?

    Thanks tons for the superb analysis.

    Bob

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  12. Thank you Bob. I do follow currencies. At the moment I would have to look closer to say much in terms of the specifics.

    Probably a good time to refresh my views, so I will do so now, and let me see if I can point out a few things. Thanks again.

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  13. gold just spiked past 1560.

    Any comments on the move?

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  14. Probably the last spike before it crashes. I have more to add short, and will be watching for the spot to do that soon.

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  15. Sentiment on gold is far too bearish.

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  16. Thanks Hook, good point, appreciate. From my point of view a $300 drop in Gold here would just be a sharp correction anyways. I'll be looking for new highs afterwards. I don't see this as being the end of the bull run just yet.

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  17. The action of gold now makes me remember what silver did months ago, I did jump in while a lot of elephants getting out after they raised the price.

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  18. I have some good facts to support my views on Gold. I do also appreciate the debate, and please feel free to share any views.

    I realize Gold is controversial. I have to say I found it somewhat interesting that no one seemed to agree with my Gold crash call even with the bearish sentiments. Of course this in itself does not mean it is correct.

    I do see a lot of wave 5 higher type calls on Gold out there currently as well.

    I'm willing to give it some breathing room. We'll see what happens.

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  19. Yes, if following previous pattern, this is the final high for gold before a sharp decline... top of channel is 1566.90'ish. Exited remainder of ZSL this AM when /SI popped back in the channel. Will consider re-entering ZSL for a trade, should /SI rally to top of channel (36.20'ish). Personally, I am not a fan of holding metals longterm short with all of the currency issues...too much risk for this trader.

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  20. What I mean is that there has never been a gold correction with sentiment this bearish -- none at all. Quite the opposite. Tread carefully, gold is at a record in euros.

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  21. What you are seeing now is that no one is long gold miners and retail is very bearish gold miners, for example.

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  22. This is the news that some are crediting the moves in the PM's today. I've said before, and will say again that I think QE3 at this time is not going to happen. Staying short Gold and Silver.

    "Fed Members Discussed Possibile Third Round of Stimulus, Exit Strategy, Minutes Show"

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  23. So,SC your view on metals still the same right? metal still decline?I just make sure i do not misunderstand your view.

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  24. Yes that is my view. Looking at adding Silver shorts here.

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  25. Tough to see what keeps $1600 off the table with sentiment this bearish and a new high in euros hourly.

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  26. I do have a trendline at $154.30 for GLD. It might reach near there.

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  27. Thanks a lot SC. I am still confused: "Fed Members Discussed Possible Third Round of Stimulus, Exit Strategy, Minutes Show". Look like QE3 is on the way which supports metal

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  28. Just a move to burn off the bears, nothing fundamanetal IMO

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  29. The key word there is "discussed", read what I said before TC.

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  30. For SPX I expect retests of today's low today/tomorrow, and even a couple points lower. I plan to go long there.

    This QE rumour is what the bulls will credit the move I anticipate next to SPX 1340's or even 1350's.

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  31. For what it's worth, John Hussman, who in my opinion is an extraordinarily careful and competent analyst, is heavily long precious metals shares; in his view current circumstances are uniformly and extraordinarily constructive for precious metals prices. I remain bearish on gold myself but I HATE, HATE to take the other side of any position from Hussman. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html (comments on precious metals down at the end).

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  32. "discussed", exactly. Also, "if inflation returned to relatively low levels".

    Not sure if $1600 gold would indicate low levels of inflation.

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  33. Thanks for all the comments today SC. So you expect that PM's will drop while the S&P rallies back up to the highs?

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  34. Market is consolidating, which is bearish. SC I think we still test your original targets of 1295.

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  35. Silver looks like it might go sideways in todays range for a few days. Several bounces up and down volatile and then plunge. It's all in my pattern. So far very consistent, and very pleased. Gold volatile too but probably inch slightly higher.

    We'll see how the timing goes Blake everything may drop together. Bottom line still a little early for the big PM plunge (soon).

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  36. Don't think so Rowley. I'm getting ready to step in heavy long. Not much lower....

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  37. 50% long SPX. Tomorrow may be the sweet spot, for long entry. Bought some just in case, will add tomorrow.

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  38. Crazy market lol. I sold my puts into the close. Now, 100% cash on the sidelines and will see what tomorrow brings. A lot of negative sentiment on Europe makes me think we're going lower, but you could be right. Could have been a bottom.

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  39. I do think very close. Maybe 1310 or something with another day of bottoming, but I am getting very bullish short term. I like a flat day tomorrow at this level best, but a big up rally is coming soon, even though seems unlikely tomorrow.

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  40. SC careful - I still see a potential bottom late this week Thursday/Friday , careful buying the dip here. Monthly charts suggest we might even get a huge move down , possible to 1230 soon.

    My short term target is 1295-1300 first.. then I will see if this level holds , might be a short term buy - if not ... 1230 as MA(200) wont hold this time.

    Best

    Chris - holding shorts still :-)

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  41. I'm all in cash for the first time in quite a while. I closed out shorts last night and today but I am not brave enough to go long this market (even though I do expect a retrace). I will reshort after a bounce.

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  42. Silver is extremely strong this morning SC. Solid follow through after yesterdays reversal

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  43. Yesterday I said this:

    "Silver looks like it might go sideways in todays range for a few days. Several bounces up and down volatile and then plunge. It's all in my pattern. So far very consistent, and very pleased. Gold volatile too but probably inch slightly higher."

    I realized yesterday I mixed this up. Gold trades flat now, and Silver inches up. Both should get volatile, and both setting to plunge.

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  44. Thanks, seems like more than just inching up though, do you see max upside anywhere near here?

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  45. I shorted the rest of my Gold position. 100% short now on Gold. Silver I will be adding short on any bounces. These are strong words, but, I believe there is a valid crash pattern in place for Gold. In my opinion it is unavoidable.

    I see it starting to selloff slow, oversold and then near $1300 can come fast.

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  46. I am afraid that silver can climb up to 40. It seem still long way for silver down. Try to keep my faith and buckled my seat-belt. SC,plz keep update what you see. Thanks

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  47. Silver upside very minimal, much more important what comes after. All my Gold and Silver shorts are staying in place for major declines.

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  48. SC: I have to admire someone who puts his money where his mouth is. My concern is that if gold breaks upwards from here there is no overhead resistance at all and the sky's the limit. I have gone long a small Sept put position in GLD to see how this plays out. Best of luck!

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  49. Took profit on S&P long. Probably S&P comes down to test 1310-1315. I'm loading up there!

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  50. great call again on S&P long. Still holding short and will add on bounces, retrace. Xtrends also short, did you see the new posting sc? this whole italy, spain, portugal, debt ceiling coming together at a confluence.

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  51. Shorted Silver with SLV trading at $36.70. SLV at my pink resistance line.

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  52. Nuggy I'm only looking for downside to SPX 1290-95 next few weeks. I did see that post, agree everything is coming together, but I also see the timing not right YET for a major decline. I'm sure on this.

    One step at a time.

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  53. I thought it was painful when silver futures hit 37 this morning, but had no idea how painful it would be when we broke over 38

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  54. This SPX rocketship didn't retrace as well as I thought only 1318 instad of the min 1315 I was looking for.

    I should be happy with the profit this morning, but instead I'm kicking myself for not staying long.

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  55. All I can say is that I am satisfied that I am looking at the precious metal situation correctly. The coming downside moves are much more extreme than this!

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  56. Dollar just tagging it's downtrend line, in ZSL & DZZ for a trade.

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  57. Well if you think it does this for a few more days, then this silver short is in big trouble

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  58. SC,
    With you on the PM shorts. Good luck!

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  59. SLV may come down to $35.80 to test the white line as shown in previous chart.

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  60. SLV also testing the underside of the mid blue fib. There should be practically no upside for Silver now.

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  61. Funny that 24 hours ago my silver short was profitable and now it is a loss way passed my normal risk tolerance. Happened extremely fast

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  62. Thanks SC, ABQ for the update . ABQ plz keep update when you intend to exit zsl. Thanks.

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  63. I have no position for SPX. Currently I am debating whether it comes back to test 1310-15 or just keeps pushing higher. I see it going to 1345-50 in both cases.

    So one strategy here could be to go long on a break above 1335. If drops below 1325, then 1310-15 is likely coming soon and then time to load up imo.

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  64. SC: should SPX continue to 1345-50, would it not be on the back of a lower dollar? If this is the case, I assume your thesis is that precious metals will diverge substantially, and not continue in a unified fashion with equities as they have over the past 2+yrs?
    I agree with lower PM prices, just not the higher equity prices piece...I am on the higher dollar, sharp equity & PM correction in unison. JMHO. Appreciate your insight on the cycle divergence of PM's.

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  65. I think most likely SPX coming down to 1310, leaning that way quite strongly now.

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  66. SC, silver looks like it is consolidating to push higher again by the end of the day. Are ypu seeing anything else to be hopeful for a drop in the short term? How much longer can this last without breaking your pattern? Thanks!

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  67. Correlation has been loosening between PM's and equities. I think they still move together as well, but certainly that does not mean they move to the same extent.

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  68. Now that I see SPX coming down, Silver should follow and fill some of this morning's gap. I'm expecting at least a test of the white line for SLV.

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  69. White line is $35.80 for SLV.

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  70. After the test of the white line we come back up to these highs?

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  71. Yes, I believe so Blake.

    I am quite satisfied (not overconfident, have thought about this very carefully) the bigger picture already confirmed with my pattern so sharp declines coming for PM's.

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  72. Shorted more Silver. 100% short now. I plan to cover some at the white line test, and keep core short probably also.

    I am mostly interested in the bigger picture for PM's, and see these short term gyrations as a distraction from that...

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  73. I am 100% short silver too now, looking at past 2 months pattern, the highest price is now for silver, too much rise, bound to cool down for a bit.

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  74. Confirmed now for SPX imo, heading to 1310 area. Today was a false break up. Target 1310, and then the real bounce up to 1345 area comes. Timing has become clear to me with today's action as I will soon explain with updates.

    Financials weakening, and can short any bounce here.

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  75. Silve just consolidating while market drops, it wants to keep going higher, very annoying

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  76. Silver still holding up, but I see both tomorrow and Friday being weak days for mkts. Timing is quite clear so expecting Silver to work it's way lower.

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  77. A question for the PM bugs out there. If I wanted to sell my 1 oz gold maple leaf coins to a coin shop. How much is a reasonable price over/under spot?

    Thanks

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  78. moody's downgrade news out; good for gold, bad for silver?

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  79. Silver still going up. One of the worst 24 hour periods i have had trading, what a nightmare

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  80. Don't ignore PM sentiment again....only short on spikes.

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  81. Updates coming for Gold and Silver shortly. Things much better than they seem for the bears.

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  82. Thanks, silver is up 5 off of the recent low, annoyed that i stayed short through that whole move. Started as very profitable, now a bad loss after today

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  83. I'm a long term gold/silver bull, but I want to increase my physical exposure at lower prices. I'm a bit biased so I'm rooting for SC's gold/silver price drop, but my expectations are much higher prices in the long term. Not sure if this is what other people are thinking for gold/silver.

    keep the charts coming sc. Thanks for your hard work.

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  84. Nuggy that is what I see long term bull mkt for Gold and Silver. My long LONG term targets are sky high (to the moon high).

    However, there are surprises along the way. 1987 Black Monday was corrective....

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  85. I'm a trader, I expect to get egg and tomatoed by the gold bugs shortly for this analysis. I'm glad to hear you appreciate it.

    That is the right approach!

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  86. SC,

    Echoing Nuggy, keep up the good work!

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  87. sc,
    i also believe that gold /silver long term will be way higher. most commentators are saying that this day no 7 of the new cycle and they usually last for a few weeks at least before a meaningful correction. i hope you are correct as i am 100 % in cash.

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  88. Thanks for your hard work SC.
    It seems a perfect drama for rising the PM price short term with Euro crisis, debt ceiling, FED meeting with some words from Ben to comfort Wall Street.I still keep the faith that the PM need to finish the correction.

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  89. i'm seeing comments and followers keep increasing. good stuff.

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  90. Hi SC just with the PM, as you have mentioned longer term you see the price of gold & silver to skyrocketing which I agree also. Is this after we have a deflationary correction and the PM have a massive correction and then rise when we enter the hyper inflation phase further down the road (years)?

    What levels do you see them bottoming at before we get the longer term move up?

    Just with the SPX I noticed on my futures platform (IG Markets)it went down to 1306 and now sitting at about 1312, are you still looking for a long entry around the 1310 area for the spike up? Or do you see more downside near here?

    Thanks again for your great analysis again SC.

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  91. Massive deflation coming for everything first including PM's. The Gold bugs will really be upset with me when I mention the bottom targets for PM's next few years.

    I'll answer this question soon though.

    Yes, I'm going heavily long SPX 1310. Most likely the mkts are flat and weak tomorrow and probably Friday so no rush. Monday (maybe starting Friday) is a different story. Debt ceiling resolved over weekend? I see a rocket shot to 1350 or so!

    The blue/yellow lines on the above charts are the supports for SPX. Very strong.

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