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Tuesday, July 19, 2011

$SPX - 15min Update

There may be a retracement back to the 1303-1308 zone next.  A continuation of the rally may then follow into the time cycle July 22nd.  The estimate for that high is 1347 although a double top in the 1350's may be possible. 

15min Chart

104 comments:

  1. What is the chance of seeing it going lower than 1295 by Friday or next week ?

    What is this time cycle on 22nd ?

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  2. So...that 2011 S&P high of 1370(cash) if off the table pretty much for a re-test in your opinion any time soon ? So many stocks like AAPL and IBM have blasted to new all time highs, it just seems like it would be inevitable. But we'll see soon I guess.

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  3. SP500 Buy pullback until august 17 2011!

    http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/07/sp500-60min-time-ratio.html

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  4. From 1327 to 1308, back to 1347 in 3 days. That's pretty big volatility.

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  5. Timer the 22nd is an equal time cycle with Nov 5th 2010 high, March 16th 2011 low.

    July 22nd is favored to be a high with the next low Aug 10-11. If July 22nd is the high, then next week should be sharply lower.

    CD55 techs look good, but the financials are signaling problems ahead with ugly underperformance. I won't be trusting this move beyond 1345 area.

    George,

    We'll have to see. The retracement to 1308 may not happen or could be just minor instead. The price behaviour today should make that more apparent.

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  6. SC...where do you see the price of Silver today? DO you see it at point 9 of your chart?

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  7. Silver has been moving inversely to the mkts as the fear trade cools. So that generally suggests Silver has more to decline with mkts rising as anticipated. We're about half way to point 9 from where Silver topped out.

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  8. Hi SC, I decided to play it safe yesterday and take most of my profits on longs around the 1325. Maybe a little early but its always a hard decision as if you don't take them the market drops and if you do it continues to go up. But a profit is a profit so I am happy.
    If we do get a pull back it may only be to 1315 area or so, hard to say but time will tell.
    Did you play if safe yesterday or are you still in on the longs?

    Thanks again for great analysis SC :)

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  9. I decided to play it safe as well for SPX. I'm confident it's going higher in coming days, but will wait and see how things settle first.

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  10. wow, silver hit 38.20 and bounced 80c so far...

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  11. ahh big bounce... when will the debt deal will be finally out so that we get done with this?

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  12. make that a whole $1.20! ouch

    This has to fall hard now....

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  13. man, back to green with SLV again....

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  14. fyi- my silver system went short yesterday at 38.86, but reversed this morning at 39.03. So I am currently long from 39.03. Maybe it is a fake out today, but I am going to keep trading with my proven system that has made me solid money for 2 years now. Just got intoxicated with SC's intriguing analysis and got me off of my tracks. Good luck all.

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  15. @Blake, does your system suggest stops and take profit points or do you do that on the fly?

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  16. Blake,
    What data do you use for sentiment in your trading system?

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  17. it trades based on high volatile moves that are in the opposite direction of the short term trend. It is always either long or short silver. It does not use sentiment or cycles, just purely volatility and direction. It does not use hard stops, stop is based on volatility as well, but the average loss is 27.5 cents for silver and the average gain is 86.6 cents. It is only right 42% of the time. This is the big drawback, however the average win is so much higher than the average loss that 42% still makes alot of money

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  18. thanks Blake, glad it works. Wish I had one to use (and try and stick to!)

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  19. thanks Jolly, automated trading really does help tremendously with discipline. I see it take trades that I would never take because I think otherwise, but it usually ends up right. It is just hard for us humans to follow our own rules that we create!

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  20. tell me about it... ! hurting now... seriously.. 39.80..who'd have thought..

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  21. SC,
    Any guidance on silver?

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  22. My shorts are in place.

    It seems this story gave Silver some lift there.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43824259

    One point worth mentioning is that the dollar rose initially yesterday on the debt news, but has been slumping since. Silver is also still lower than yesterday despite the dollar.

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  23. SC

    what your take on the story?

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  24. "In exchange, Reid wants to attach to the McConnell plan a requirement for a bipartisan panel of 12 lawmakers to negotiate on a compromise that could come up for a vote later this year. "

    Dont really like indefinite answer like this one where it mention later this year, no date attach, ouch.

    SC, Any thought on your silver forecast short term?

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  25. I think all the talk of default is ridiculous.

    "The plan by the Gang of Six is far too complicated and contentious to advance before an Aug. 2 deadline. But the plan's authors clearly hope it could serve as a template for a "grand bargain" later in the year."

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  26. Thanks SC, I was looking at silver compared to yesterday too, but Silver had the big drop after the NYMEX close, and unless we get the same again, silver will be much higher than yesterday...

    This is one heck of a bounce, $1.60.. and it went straight up from 39 to 39.50 thats strong... freakily. And gold is now nearly back at 1600.. when that happened last, silver went to 40.

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  27. Although I agree with SC's big picture on silver, I am currently waiting to short ABOVE the recent highs. Based off of SLV, a print over 39.69 should suffice. Even from current levels the downside relative to the upside is larger (from an intermediate timeframe perspective) however, I don't like the short term risk for a short here.

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  28. Hi SC

    Looking at the SLV chart. On July 8, 11, 12 candlestick, it looks like we have the same pattern now on July 18, 19 and 20th. On July 13 there was a mega rise in silver price. Wondering what is your take for July 21?

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  29. InvestBB I see the similarity there, thanks for mentioning, yet I don't generally place much weight on that kind of pattern.

    Bottom line is that regardless of how things bounce around here, I am willing to take the opposite side of the fear trade for the next few days.

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  30. The baseline debt ceiling raise is already a done deal, the so called plan B. So market is already pricing it in now. But an elegant grand debt reform plan, plan A, will unlikely be accomplished before Aug 2. So market will rejoice as a knee jerk and only to realize that nothing has actually changed. And if Moody were to downgrade USA after that, all hell will break lose.

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  31. Glenn Nealy of Neowave has gold topping out in the next 1-2 days and he is advising to go short at that point. This ties in perfectly with SC's top on July 21 +/- 1 day.

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  32. SC do you think there is still a pull back on the cards for the SPX before the run up to 1345 area. Market seems to be holding & consolidating here. What would be the latest time you would give for a pull back before resuming the rally up?

    Thanks

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  33. The market is holding well, and the financials have been very solid today. A pullback is starting to look doubtful, and time is running out.

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  34. Thanks SC, I agree it's looking solid, it may not be worth chasing this on the upside, may be better to wait for a shorting opportunity when it gets to the 1345-1350 zone on the 21st or so. 25 points on the rally or 70 points on the downside. RR is better on the downside I think.

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  35. SC...when do you expect silver to make it down to point 9 on your chart? Would you consider this bounce a B point which will follow by a C for point 9? Your thoughts would be appreciated. THx

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  36. It could be an ABC type move for Silver. Just day by day on the timing. The next few days are shaping up to be important for all mkts.

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  37. Hi SC

    clearly the silver price is still in the red zone, would you happen to know why SLV is in green big time at the moment? Doesnt even match each other.

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  38. SC....how high do you expect Silver to bounce for point B?

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  39. Hi SC

    I remain long markets from 1295-1300 and have a top cycle date end of this month , so I think a little pullback before higher , target for pullback is 1310-1315 range imo , I think we could see near 1350 again and possible go near 1360 end of month , until everyone gets bullish again , and then a sharp drop to come.

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  40. But overall I would not try to short this rally - for the small pullbacks - as I think markets will rip higher into end of this month + window dressings next week. I even think next week might be better to the upside than this week , so if we get some pullback or so next days , then we rip a lot next week higher.

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  41. I think the silver run today is due to finding that the debt deal is still rather unconvincing... I dont think it is factored in the price but I am very surprised to see the financials strong today so that is why things are unclear to me... I tempted to short again at this level but I have to see where tomorrow morning takes us and act accordingly afternoon.. Any thoughts guys?

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  42. Blake by the way can you keep us on what your system is suggesting... I noticed that the signal that you get is a bit late do you have an automated trade also set up or do you do it manually because when the run starts it is pretty quick (sorry if outside the topic)?

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  43. fivir,

    is your question regarding silver or the S&P?

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  44. sorry PK, my question was about silver...

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  45. As I posted earlier, I would rather wait for SLV to make new print high above 39.69 before I look at the short side and that will depend on how SLV "handles" the 39.69 high. I do concur with SC that contrary to popular sentiment, silver has a better than even chance that it will see under $30 before it seed $50. From trading standpoint however the goal is to minimize risk as much as possible which is why I trade mostly the 60 minute intervals; thus I will be looking to see when/if SLV breaks 39.69 and make a determination then on what my shorting strategy will be. I do realize i may miss the move down if it does not make it above 39.69 but there are plenty of trains that leave the station so I will have to wait for the next one if indeed that is the case.

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  46. fivir- My system took profits at 40.06. It usually does shorter term trades. It is fuly automated, I do not have to do anything. I just check it a few times per day to make sure everything is running ok. I have a dedicated server in New York that I rent per month and I leave Tradestation running non stop on it. Tradestation has great automation software. I just remote access my server through any computer and my trading platform typically stays open. I just turn it off on the weekend so that it can rest. Anyways, no, I do not manually place trades, it automatically buys or sells at market when it is triggered. I also have one for sugar, and 3 for s&p futures.

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  47. Hi SC

    what your take on the current news regarding they plan to only have a tempt solution to the debt issue, think your silver target point 9 is still going to happen? Alot of uncertainty still

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  48. Blake, what strategies do you use to set up your automated trading? RSI 70/30, MACD crossovers etc? Does it take a lot of trial and error to find the most productive strategy?

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  49. Hi PK, I totally agree with you, waiting now is the best thing to do... I personally think that silver will drop although I am not as optimistic as you in the sense that it will be below the 30 ... although I really hope because it will then be a great buy opportunity.. I wont miss the move down because I am already short since last Thursday.. I am just hoping that it will no longer move up until I close this trade because as you said earlier, shorts are very risky for the silver in the long term these days

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  50. Hi Blake, these are impressive profits realized in a short time today... and your system setup, wow it is pretty impressive too.. maybe I should spend sometime during my vacation this summer working on something like that... you really encouraged me... I will ask you some technical questions later on if you dont mind if I manage to work on it..

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  51. tom- you will realize very quickly when you begin to backtest systems that most of the typical indicators wil give you negative results. RSI, MACD and what not will fail alone, and fail badly. 2 things I look for to automate a system. 1, I want it to be short term, 1 day is best, but no more than a few days for a trade. 2, it needs to act on something that will always be in the market place. The way that market move can vary significantly over the years, so if you form a system that works well for the last few months, it may not work next week. I have tested my silver strategy for the last 5 years of futures trading and it has fantastic results. Not so great before 5 years ago, but there was a major change in the silver market 5 years ago, so taking that into consideration, i dont see any reason why my system will fail anytime unless the rules for futures trading were to change. I have found that the best systems are those that exploit emotional markets. Identify when emotions are running high, and find a way to profit off of it in a day trade. If you can define the emotional set up and define the trade that exploits it, as well as define your loss control, you will have a good system. If you try to form a system based on a normal indicator, you will find that fading that indicator yields better results than actually trying to act on it as it is intended.

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  52. Thanks Blake, that's very interesting. Ameritrade has something similar to Tradestation and I may look into it. All the best with your trading! Tom.

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  53. Hi SC, just looking at the futures and markets look down at the moment, this maybe the pullback that you were indicating. We will have to see what happens after markets open. Would you be looking at adding some long positions if we get down to the 1310 area? Or are you looking at a more shallow drop?

    Thanks

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  54. Take that back SC, the futures have turned around and look positive again. It went as low as 1319 on my platform.

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  55. The overnight retracement may be all that we see for SPX.

    For Silver there is a very specific pattern that I am watching for confirmation today. Once I see that price behaviour I will have in depth updates. My view continues to be that Silver is whipsawing before a major decline.

    The time cycle today/tomorrow is most important.

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  56. Thanks SC, do you think its worth going long S&P at 1333? or is it too little up side?

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  57. It's personal preference how to play it (or not). I don't trust it much beyond 1345 even though it could reach into the 1350's.

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  58. Didn't do it.. shame though!

    Thanks anyway.. Silver looked like it had decent support around 39.50 earlier, looks like it keeps bouncing off 40, but only by 5-10c at a time... I hope it doesn't get through!

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  59. Wow SC the markets have taken off as you said it would towards the end of the week. At this rate we will hit the upside target tomorrow or even today.

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  60. SC: When you get the chance could you update us on the gold cycle? Many thanks.

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  61. SC -
    May want to go back and look at the Silver Futures chart from last Thursday night / Friday morning. Silver dipped down to within 70-80 cents of your target for point 9 (using a $1 less conversion rate for Silver / SLV). It was during a time frame that SLV was not traded, so it would not be on a chart. (2-4 in the morning)

    I think we may be at point 10 now.

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  62. OK, I'm now a little worried that SP is now at 1345 target but Silver is still in high 39's. I would have thought that while SP went up, silver would go down..

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  63. justmy02,

    Thanks, excellent point, I'll have an important update coming soon for Silver. It seems to me SLV may test near $38 next. I really like what I see today so far.

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  64. SC, where are the ES peak estimate levels ?

    Looks quite peaky at this moment at 1339.75 level. The 76.4% fib.

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  65. Generally a 5-7 point pullback here might be in order for S&P with another push to top out.

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  66. SC, if Jutmy02 is right, where is point 11? Higher or lower?!

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  67. Potentially that would mean Silver may have already topped (or very near). Premature to say at this point, but confirmation could come soon.

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  68. SC,

    If I draw a straight trendline from the 1291 low, touching the 19 low. The intraday peak for ES has kissed the reversed side of that line. Looks like a peak to me already.

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  69. I still think likely early yet. Time cycle due tomorrow though +/- 1 day is acceptable.

    Financials are still holding quite well today so favoring one more push. Keep in mind my next target after this move is 1276 SPX Aug 10-11.

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  70. Suspect a definitive debt agreement provides the final lift, and top out.

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  71. Financials up like a rocket, Silver down hard. This is exactly what we want to see.

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  72. Hi SC

    wondering what the silver price be like right after the debt agreement happen?

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  73. my system went short at $39 even for silver futures.

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  74. Hi Blake

    Did you actually go short silver with your position, and how much % you going short? or are you letting us know your system is telling you to short but you arent ready to short it yet?

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  75. SC,

    If SP were to top out tmr and visit 1276 by Aug 10-11. Does it mean that we can expect to see opposite movement of Gold and Silver while the stocks go south ? What about US$ trajectory ?

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  76. Agreed SC one more push to maybe a double top and then a nice juicy drop, the action today was crazy stuff, so volatile. I think you are right these wild swings are going to get worse in these markets, whipsawing up and down to trap both bulls and bears.

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  77. InvestBB- It puts me in the trade automatically...so yes, I am now short from $39. The average time in each trade is around 7 hours, so chances are that I will be out before the end of the night. It closes out automatically. I use 25% of my account value and it has averaged 65% return per year over the last 5 years. Of course, keep in mind that it places as many losing trades as winning trades, the trick here is that the winners are much larger than the losers.

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  78. Hi Blake

    why would you be closing out your position before the end of the night with silver today? Looking at the silver price, it been dropping all day so far slowly. Can your system forecast what is going on tomorrow or something?

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  79. I'm going short in SPY, BAC and SLV. Looks like maybe one pop on ceiling news, then 1200's here we come.

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  80. InvestBB, it is an automated system...i let it run on its own. It has great results, so if I screw with the trades i cannot honestly beleive my results. I also trade on the side as well, but i never mess with the systems trades. No, it is not that smart! it has no forcasting abilities, just reactions

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  81. We are testing the bottom of a broken support (now resistance) trendline from a few days ago, and around the 78.6% retrace of the prior decline from the July highs. We are also retesting the trendline from the 2007 highs to the May 2 high. http://screencast.com/t/8sVp4PNG

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  82. We can see all kinds of whipsaws here with rumours swirling about this debt issue. Silver may go back and test near this morning's high if a delay in the debt deal.

    Ultimately I see Silver and Gold falling when the dust settles.

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  83. On the other hand, I got an easy split on my index option purchases today, which implies there may be a bit of upside left. (Index options have enormous spreads - I always split them with a limit order. When I get an easy fill, I find the purchase is usually not well timed; when I have to pay full price I find the purchase is usually profitable. The logic is that options market makers are "smart money" and have better insight than most into market movements.)

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  84. Hi Blake

    Does you system mention anything on SPX?

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  85. InvestBB,

    I think you are giving me too much credit! I have 4 systems that trade S&P, but they are not suggestive of anything, they are all just day trading systems.

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  86. any wisdom on the affect of chinese exchange openning up more silver trades?

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  87. my system closed me out for exactly break even just now at 39 even

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  88. i am out for my day trading as well for silver, maybe a small bounce coming for Silver to today's high like SC mention

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  89. Hi Rowley

    I already started to short SPX, just a tiny small amount, it too much temptation not to short this beast when it rise like 20 points today. Have you begin your short yet?


    Hi Blake

    You shorting SPX yet?

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  90. InvestBB, yes, I bought SPY puts for both Aug and Sept. 50% in.

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  91. i have not shorted yet...Probably will wait a bit

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  92. hey guys, interesting news from CNBC:

    Europe Approves Bailout Plan For Greece, Other Nations

    SC, wondering what your take on that for SPY and silver tomorrow?

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  93. It might still be a little early, minimum price target was met today for SPX. So the mkt may have a little more room, but it starts to become more treacherous from here imo.

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  94. SC. Today's high is just right at 1347 as shown in your chart point 2, great call. So an expected decline is coming soon?

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  95. SC,

    Silver and gold have been moving in the opposite direction of SPX in recent days. Do you now expect them to move in concert with your prediction of a PM crash and SPX top?

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  96. Interesting silver is at 38.947 currently, a nice crack happen after hours.

    SC, wondering what you think of this after hour pricing of silver?

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  97. Yes, Roger there should be a decline coming soon. SPX could still test up to the 1256 area of the top earlier in July. Not necessarily though.

    Today's trading was potentially very significant for Silver. I'll show the chart why this is looking promising. I'd like to see some further confirmation for Silver, but it does seem gold and silver may now drop with the mkts.

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  98. Yes, 1356 is what I meant. Thanks.

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  99. FTSE mirror chart http://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/07/ftse-mirror-chart.html

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