Sunday, July 3, 2011

$SPX - Big Picture Validation

We saw a sharp rally last week as anticipated a week ago, but it extended into a power rally phase.  As a result, I recognize from the Big Picture cycle that there are necessary updates and modifications to make to trading plans going forward.   

Last week was validation of my big picture plan with a triple bottom now in place as expected, and a power rally kicked off shortly thereafter.  I had a good week overall, but could have better anticipated the strength of the power rally phase.  As mentioned this type of 5-day sequential large rally has only occurred 8 times in history.  My Big Picture cycle called for this, and that is an excellent confirmation considering the odds of such a rally occurring.

I remain bearish from these levels, and see the next major swing down to the 1295 SPX area.  However, after careful review I think we are likely to see some sideways trade first, and slightly higher levels tested.  Addmitedly, I shorted early late last week, and so this coming week I plan to improve that entry, and reshort at more optimal levels.

SPX closed Friday at several major resistance trendlines as shown in the charts below.  Around July 6th appears to be a bottom in my timing cycles, and I plan to cover shorts at that time, and reshort near 1347 SPX levels.  A minor "flashcrash" type of event is quite possible after such an extreme rally, but as I mentioned on Friday, a sideways trading phase would occur first.  I will be monitoring that possibility closely.

The large and unusual swings are going to continue for many months to come.  Bulls and bears beware - it's traders paradise! 

30min Chart

60min Chart

Big Picture update.  This is the cycle that called for the unusual power rally last week. 

6day Chart


  1. SP500 Buy any pullback until august 17 2011!

  2. I'm wondering if the next shoe to drop is not passing the debt ceiling increase. Obama has no desire to cut back spending and the Tea Party is insisting any Republican that wants reelected vote against it or at least insist on spending cuts. Seems likely we could see a Government shutdown

  3. Good point, the debt ceiling issue is likely to be a important key for July. Just based on the the cycles, it does appear there is a significant moment of fear coming in the not too distant future.

    For all of the smaller movements and timing, I'll use my timing cycles and other more detailed charts to fine tune.

    Also Gold and Silver charts coming.

  4. Hope you had a great birthday SC. Thanks for the updates and look forward to what you see happening in July and beyond.