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Thursday, July 21, 2011

Silver - Symmetry Update

There has been support lately from the turquoise fibonacci fan.  The current symmetrical configuration may be indicating that the top is in, or near.  Even with this configuration there may be some further whipsaws and testing. 

Further price action will be useful to review closely for confirmation of completion.  

60min Chart

53 comments:

  1. What is that blue cycle line based on ?

    How low will silver corrected to ? Long term is Silver still bullish ?

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  2. Nice SC, the patterns are materializing...

    SI: http://screencast.com/t/e8JW4BUi4R
    GC: http://screencast.com/t/zd0REO5AJT

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  3. IMHO if the above scenario materializes, silver would go somewhere to 22 USD. Gold should test 1000 in that case. Think gold would fall harder then silver.

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  4. Good morning all.. metals spiking again.. wonder if they'll go upto yesterdays levels.

    So far so good. Might add to shorts if it goes high 39's

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  5. Point 10 here we come .................

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  6. Timer, the blue cycle line shows where the symmetry starts for each side. Target is $27. I do see a very long term bull mkt for the PM's eventually. The next few years look weaker imo. It's all in the timing.

    For today Silver is testing the area in the white oval. It will be important to see the price action next.

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  7. Let's see what happens Thai.

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  8. Hi SC

    Do you think their maybe a decline of SPY today?

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  9. Hi SC the SPX looks a little weaker today, do you think there is much more upside to come. It does look to be getting toppy here. There may be one more spike up but it may not happen, what are your thoughts.

    Thanks SC

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  10. Silvers going to 40.30.. maybe more.. what a bitch.

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  11. A waiting game now. It feels still a little early, may need to spend a little more time up here, and could be some minor upside. I don't trust the mkt from this point though. Minimum time and price targets have been met already.

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  12. surprised that news isn't talking about a couple bombs that went off outside Norwegian parliament earlier.

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  13. Good strategy SC just to wait a little and see how things pan out. I know we are going to get a big drop shortly it is just a matter of time. I am keen to go short but don't want to rush it. The bull trap has been set again and will catch a lot by suprise who think the markets will just keep going up and up.

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  14. SC, was your last comment re silver or SPX?

    If its silver, how much further up? could it take 41? I might need to drop my shorts... as it were...

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  15. Hook, fair enough where you are coming from, but actually it could be looking good here. Yesterday I said SLV may come down to $38, and then go back up and test the high. That is why I drew the oval on the above chart to show a test.

    Correctly, you point out that we need to see follow through.

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  16. http://www.whitehouse.gov/live

    obama will be speaking shortly...after he reassures there will be a deal on increasing the dept ceiling, Silver should plumit.
    lets see what happens

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  17. Any news on that little drop?

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  18. There was some news Democrats want tax increases, Republicans are opposed. These debt talks seem to go on forever.... Wish they would finally get organized.

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  19. it looks so hard for silver to drop down.

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  20. Will they pull a rabbit out of the hat and come up with something before the weekend? It seems there are a lot of games being played.

    "There was no agreement, publicly, privately. Never an agreement and frankly not close to an agreement," Boehner told reporters. "And so, I would just suggest it is going to be a hot weekend here in Washington D.C."

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  21. wow, Boehner basically just shoot down all the spec chit-chat for now. But when is it going to finalize, this dragging is a pain.

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  22. Same old political BS SC, has been like this since the Roman times and earlier. Unfortunately they continue and will continue to drag these things out longer than necessary, it is a joke.

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  23. time decay already killing my PUTS (exp. Aug. 25). SC, what are your stops and drop dead date?

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  24. The nice thing about the above symmetrical pattern is that it will not take much longer to be definitive. Let's see how this develops, and I plan to review closely this weekend as far as timing and limits.

    My S&P trading has been going so smoothly that my patience starts to wear thin on Silver. However, I see this as a large potential play so trying to be patient with it.

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  25. Hi SC:

    Since the S&P hit your target price of approx. 1347-1350 (in the futures), are you leaning toward a sell off now? Too many people anticipating a pop in the futures on the debt ceiling news; looks like the markets would want to the exact opposite.

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  26. SC,
    My sentiments exactly. I think trading silver is a losing proposition. I wish you would just stick with analysis on SPX -- much more predictable trade based on your record.

    thx

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  27. I do think a selloff is nearing for SPX. It's quiet today. If there is any upside it should be only minor from this level.

    Thanks Bob. We shall soon see....

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  28. SC. I'm actually a little bit worry if a SPX selloff is coming, will the SLV rise after? What might cause both of them decline together?

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  29. A valid point. That is what can make the PMs tricky. Sometimes they are a fear based trade. For the most part they have been correlated with the mkts basically acting as commodities though. Take May for example. Everything came down especially Silver.

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  30. Market closed now. Silver seems very tricky now, so I clean all my HZD holding and sitting for cash just in case. Thanks for good call both on SPX and SLV. I appreciate your effort and would expect your further points of view. Have a nice weekend, SC.

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  31. no debt deal: boner just pulled out...silver will probably hit the roof on Sunday now :)

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  32. This deal is more elusive than the Loch Ness Monster.

    Boehner: 'Dealing With the White House Is Like Dealing With a Bowl of Jell-O"

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  33. Have a good weekend SC, look forward to your update on the SPX.

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  34. Muzz, if debt ceiling talks do not produce any results by the end of this weekend, you don't need any update from SC :) Just short the SPX.

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  35. Agreed Bob that may be the way to go if the debt ceiling is not resolved. Still would like to see what SC has to say on levels and timing etc. Thanks, have a good weekend Bob.

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  36. SC et al,

    Referencing the Synodic Angle separation of Heliocentric Saturn and Uranus from 20 Oct 1987 (The 1987 Dow crash point).

    On 3/3/2009.....Synodic Angle separation of Heliocentric Saturn and Uranus was 180 deg.

    On 5/5/2010.....Synodic Angle separation of Heliocentric Saturn and Uranus was 190 deg.

    On the coming 26/7/2011....Synodic Angle separation of Heliocentric Saturn and Uranus will be at 200 deg...

    On 6/3/2009 we have a low formed at the mid point (180 deg) of S-U cycle.

    On 6/5/2010 we have a flash crash occurred one day after passing the 190 deg point.

    Your guess is as good as mine...what will happen on the coming 26 Jul 2011, the 200 deg point...

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  37. Well make a guess to enlighten us. I haven't got a clue what you're talking about.

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  38. Timer, thanks for sharing! is this SU angle really slow moving? ~428days every 10 degrees? looks like December '07 top was around 170 degrees if im getting this right..

    I am seeing SPY low third week of august and potentially major low - mid October.

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  39. As stated several times in this column, the peak of the stock market via this particular set was due to top out when Jupiter got within 7 degrees of the Aries-Taurus border or 23 degrees of Aries through 7 degrees of Taurus. That sector of the zodiac would be occupied by Jupiter in two periods. The first was May 2 through July 22. True to its historical pattern, the stock market - as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from the study was done over a 140 year period – topped out at 12,876 on May 3, and then tested it again at 12,753 on July 7 and 12,751 last Thursday, July 21. There is no confirming signal yet that the high has been completed, and our position trading subscribers are still long this stock market since the end of November 2010. If the market falls below the low of a former primary cycle trough, then we will have confirmation that the top is in, and in fact that the second phase of the 4-year cycle has also topped out. I expect that to happen soon.

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  40. SC....can you put up an updated chart on Silver? What do you think will unfold this week. Your thoughts are well appreciated...Thanks

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  41. I expect one more big push higher before silver tops out. I still am looking at $43-ish give or take on silver.

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  42. Timer,

    Thanks

    Nice work.

    Also have focus on July 26

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  43. Will these guys come to an agreement on the debt ceiling today before Asian markets open or are they going to drag this out until the last minute?

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  44. Before silver reached 49 then fall 15 dollars to around 34, if we follow symmetry theory and believe silver will fall to 28( 27 for slv ),silver this time need to reach around 43( 42for slv ) then fall 15 dollars to reach 28. So still one more up.Why we did not think about that earlier? Wishing for point 9 even just a bit before it up to 43

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  45. Here's an Elliott Wave perspective on tonight's decline in equity futures - wave 2 retraced exactly .618 of wave 1, and wave 4 shouldn't go much higher than 1335 ES at most. If 5=1 then wave I/A would be complete and we would get a bounce around ES 1316-1322. http://screencast.com/t/54nXn7kySvtW

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  46. TC,

    I'm impressed with your line of thinking. That equal range calculation can be quite useful at times. You may be on to something there with the range calculation as a potential method to calculate the bottom target once the top is confirmed.

    The symmetry itself does not suggest upside into the $40+ for SLV. It actually rather suggests a top is near (or already in place).

    My target at $27 is not set in stone either - just an estimate. It could be lower. $25 or something.

    Stay tuned for an important update.

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  47. It is looking good so far. There is not enough yet to say that point 12 has completed. Watching for confirmation.

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