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Sunday, July 24, 2011

$SPX - Time/Price Targets Hit Exactly

The 1347 SPX target was hit exactly on Thursday, July 21st.  The time target was met on Friday, and suggested some type of decline next. 

The news in the media is currently dominated by negative reports of potential US default, and breakdown in debt ceiling/budget negotiations. 

However, when the Financials index Rifin is plotted versus SPX (as shown below), Financials were clearly leading up last week.  GS, for example, was a very strong performer despite weaker earnings.

It is necessary to upgrade to a significantly more bullish stance given the above facts.  Additional updates will be forthcoming with price and time targets.  For now I will say that a move to 1360+ appears likely next.

10min Chart
 

 

75 comments:

  1. Silver topped out in late April. Gold hit a high at the very beginning of May. Silver led Gold down into the May declines.

    Gold has pushed higher than the May peak, but Silver is not even near the April high.

    The current Silver futures are lower than last week Monday/Tues. Gold is higher now.

    Just as in April, Silver could be warning once again.

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  2. Looks like a the morning may be met with a nice move down. I've got the DJIA futures showing the equivalent of down 140 points if we opened now. We'll see if she holds into morning.

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  3. HI SC hope you had a good weekend, how are you playing the SPX at the moment. Are you just sitting it out or are you looking at going long to 1360+. What level would you be looking at this pull back ending?

    Thanks SC

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  4. I will be looking for a spot to go long at some point, but certainly not in any rush. I will want to see plenty of indications lining up etc.

    Looking at SLV if it presses higher, I suspect it may test around $40.30, and that may be the end of it. That was the April 11th high.

    Let's see how things shape up all around in the morning.

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  5. silver went past $41 and now above 40.30. what should we expect today?

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  6. Silver reached 42 in Hongkong market last night and then smash-down to 40 (http://www.hkmerc.com/en/market_news_data/today_quotes_news/HKS/index.html#/2011-09)
    Seem like big boys are trying to push the last bounce to get out(Eric Sprott just sold 1 million shares of PSLV).

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  7. SC great analysis on the SPX, the target was met exactly (1347) and also the timing was spot on.

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  8. It still might be possible that SLV tests that $40.30 area. So far Silver hasn't done much.

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  9. Hi SC

    wondering what your take on SLV and SPX for the rest of the trading hour today?


    Thanks!

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  10. For SPX I wonder if it comes down to test the 1320's. So far relatively quiet.

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  11. Markets are holding up SC, I think they may be factoring in a done deal shortly. Maybe that's why the financials have also been strong last week as well. The smart money knows a deal will be done eventually and a short term pop up in the markets is very likely.

    But I think this rally up will be short lived SC, before another move down, I may be wrong but believe the market has put in a high for this year and it won't be breached. Let's see what happens, what are your thoughts?

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  12. it been at the 1340 level for so long with SPX, wondering what is going any, any one have an idea?

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  13. Generally I think SPX pushes somewhat higher here, and then I still see weakness into Aug 10-11.

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  14. SC: perhaps you could address your prior GOLD forecasts of "severe declines" and "summer gold crash"? It isn't working out, is it?

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  15. My overall view on Gold and Silver remains the same. Very bearish. Certainly I was early, but when they drop it will happen very quickly.

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  16. TC, how you know Eric have sold over 1mil PSLV? can you show us a link?

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  17. Hi SC

    Are you adding to averaging down with your Gold position currently?

    Thanks!

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  18. Just waiting right now as the setup matures. Silver has been giving numerous warning signs as mentioned earlier.

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  19. I read from this site :http://dont-tread-on.me/another-silver-drive-by-shooting-coming/.
    I am praying for the correction in silver happens

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  20. Today's break on the SLV above 39.69 was not indicative of strength as price registered its high of the session during the first 30 minutes of trading; a sign of weakness IMO. On the other hand, the ensuing correction did not violate any level of significance that would signal (to me at least) that the long awaited decline has started. I did establish a minor short position on the first 30 minutes of trading today but to begin to aggressively look at the short side i am waiting for any reaction break on the 60min bar charts.(For example the prior reaction low currently stands @ 38.80; a break will not translate into an immediate short but I will be looking at shorting more diligently.

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  21. SPX: Watching/waiting. There may be more to go in this correction so waiting to see a little more price action.

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  22. Hi SC,

    are you watching for SPX for an entry in the long or short position?

    Thanks!

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  23. I'm going to review further. There may be enough of a decline coming that I would consider shorting first.

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  24. Hi SC - do you also have a longer term view of SPX, ie bear market coming back or continuation of the 2+ year bull?

    Thanks

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  25. Hi SC

    wondering what your take on the market with SPX and SLV tomorrow with this piece of after hour news:

    "Obama Backs New Debt Plan That Doesn't Raise Taxes"


    Thanks!

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  26. Eventually I see a return of the bear mkt. Major surprise coming first for the bears though, so still too early to be overly bearish.

    InvestBB, let's see how it shakes out. Everything still up in the air with this deal.

    House Speaker Boehner quickly dismissed the Reid plan as full of "gimmicks."

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  27. Hi SC

    I remember you mention in the silver symmetry page:
    """""""""
    The symmetry itself does not suggest upside into the $40+ for SLV. It actually rather suggests a top is near (or already in place).
    My target at $27 is not set in stone either - just an estimate. It could be lower. $25 or something.
    """""""""""

    Today you mention
    """"""""""
    It still might be possible that SLV tests that $40.30 area. So far Silver hasn't done much.
    """"""""""

    Could you please let us know why the sudden change of assumption for silver price? one day it wont make it pass 40+ and the next it might still hit 40.30?

    Also your target of $27, is that an estimate you think will happen right after August 2nd?

    Btw, is this $27 silver target assuming that the debt ceiling issue resolved by extending the debt limit, if the issue does not resolved do you think silver price may hit the roof, like above $50 after August 2nd?

    Also even if the debt ceiling issue get resolved base on the debt limit raise, would that $27 target of yours be like a 1 or 2 days or maybe less than 1 day right after August 2nd, until everyone realized US got more debt to carry, their credit rating will get wreck anyways?


    Thanks!

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  28. That is only a 30 cent difference, not a significant change. I doubt it would get to $27 that fast. We'll see about timelines.

    I have read that the Aug 2nd deadline may be extended to Aug 10. Apparently there are cash inflows that may keep things afloat for another week.

    I find this interesting since Aug 10 is one of my time cycles.

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  29. TC - Sprott didn't sell his shares because he's bearish, he's one of the biggest silver bulls out there. He sold (as he has done recently as well) to arbitrage the premium to NAV, then reinvests that money into silver miners. If anything, what he did was an extremely bullish move.

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  30. I wonder what where they would "borrow" from or what they would plunder if they extended it to Aug 10th. Social Security, pensions, gold?

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  31. Not much new to add. Financials are holding better this morning so leaning on the upside for SPX.

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  32. Silver has been quiet, just consolidating sideways so far.

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  33. SC...what do you think of Silver pushing to 43-44 range before it plunges. That range is the 61.8% retracement of the April high. Your thoughts are much appreciated. THx

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  34. SC SPX seems to be holding well around the 1330-1333 area. It's a hard market to gauge at the moment with so much in the air. It is tempting to go long here but I am concerned there may be more downside to come before we move up. I must admit the markets have held up better than expected especially with all the current uncertainty. Interesting times ahead I think.

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  35. I doubt Silver can make it up there.

    Yes, holding well Muzz. Even though the state of the economy is rather clear, the mkts will continue to confound and go against what is rational. Eventually the mkts always reflect the fundamentals, but it is the cycles that determine the timing.

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  36. SC, to support your symmetry projection - miners have topped out and are hesitating at the moment, could be a sign of a bear. Will your symmetry model be invalidated if point 12 is higher than point 10? Are there strict rules to this?

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  37. Agreed SC it does continue to confound, are you looking at taking any positions at the moment or just observing price action for now?

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  38. In terms of the symmetry, in April the Silver futures were slightly higher at point 12 than point 10. During regular hours, Silver did not make it higher at point 12.

    So that is an excellent question. There are no strict rules, and Point 12 could be higher.

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  39. Interesting that silver price is down in the red while HZD is down in the red. Anyone know how that works? Shouldnt HZD be up in green while silver price is down?

    Thanks!

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  40. I've been mainly observing Muzz preferring to stay out of the chop, but I am becoming rather bullish now on a short term basis. Financials are looking very strong this morning. A surge up for SPX may be in the works.

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  41. ok Silver is at $40.9....Something tells me this will shoot higher before crashing.

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  42. SC, do you still hold your silver short position? Thanks

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  43. I see Silver as a summer play, and so a waiting game. It is the big picture that I am interested in. Silver is testing the level of a week ago now. I have been wondering if SLV may test $40.30. We shall see.

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  44. Hi SC

    For SLV to reach 40.30. Doesn’t silver price have to be higher than what the current price will be, like $41 to $42?

    Would $42 be what you foresee the max silver probably going to go still?


    Thanks!

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  45. SC, why SLV 40.30 (41.30 silver). Are you expecting significant resistance in that area?

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  46. I just would like to see what happens if it gets there. That is the April 11th high. I have noticed on similar charts that it could represent a level of heavy resistance.

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  47. April 11 high for silver was $41.98. I personally think it will retrace about 61.8% of april high. approx. $43.20-44.2 for silver. before this thing drops like a sharp knife.

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  48. SLV close at 39.9, which very close to today's high at 39.92 and only one small step to 40.3. No idea how long will this go though.

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  49. SC, if you connect may 30 high - July 18 high, that resistance line is at around 41.25 right now and going higher, that could be you 40.30 (SLV) ceiling. July 30 - new moon is coming up quickly and could be our high (turning point) for metals along with debt deal during that weekend.

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  50. Thanks. I read a poll Rasmussen just registered a New Low: 6% think Congress is doing a good job.

    So the contrary view would be a satisfactory resolution to this debt ceiling crisis.

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  51. Silver is at 41.4 right now and still moving up. I personally think we will see Silver retrace 61.8% to 78.1% of April high. That will be 43.30-45.5. Silver is somethings known to be more volitile so it can spike higher. Staying out of Silver for now until we are above 43 then you can short.

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  52. Hi SC, SPX looking a little wobbly today. Do you still think it is possible that your original count is still valid and we hit the top at 1347 and are now on our way down to the 1276 area. What are you thoughts?

    Thanks

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  53. The main idea is that I expect Aug 10 to be a low. So the question is whether the decline has started, or we see a pop first and then decline. I think it is likely that the mkt moves higher first, and then decline.

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  54. The decline has most likely started since your 22 Jul top call.

    25 was Helio Mars at 59 deg. 26 was the 200 deg point for delta Saturn Uranus from 20 Oct 1987.

    Next time stop should be around 1-3 Aug.

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  55. sc, now that slv has hit your 40.3 target do you see the decline starting now?

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  56. I suspected that $40.30 SLV would be a strong resistance from similar chart comparisons. So far Silver did take a hard tumble after hitting that level.

    Potentially that may be the start of it Lix. Let's see...

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  57. Markets are very choppy, I started to short gold at 1621.

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  58. If this debt deal is done which I am assuming it will be, I think that the PM are a trap here at these levels and will fall hard when or if a deal is struck.

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  59. if a deal is struck it won't be until after the weekend imo. These guys will always play political games with you until the last second.

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  60. SC, regarding your metals projection - im seeing week of august 19th (15 - 21) as an important time point for both metals so its pretty close to yours! is this time target from your symmetry chart projection? i.e. the same angle of descent as during may massacre?

    Thank you! Great blog you got here!

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  61. Timer, aug 1-3 is pause in the downtrend for markets and then continue lower into full moon and possibly beyond?

    The decline has most likely started since your 22 Jul top call.

    25 was Helio Mars at 59 deg. 26 was the 200 deg point for delta Saturn Uranus from 20 Oct 1987.

    Next time stop should be around 1-3 Aug.

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  62. SC. Regarding the strong resistance of SLV at 40.3, do you mean it might re-test around this 40.3 level again before it really plunge?

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  63. SC, 40.3 was a nice call. Hopefully we will see the start of it.

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  64. today one of those days when everything seems to be down...equities, bonds, precious metals

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  65. 1inbluemoon,

    Interesting, thanks for the metal timing. August is important for reasons (in the cycles) that I have not yet discussed. Larger cycles come into play, and so the moves will become much larger.

    The plan has been to show what is important in a timely fashion - each step at a time. Each bear/bull trap, one at a time, rather than what the cycles indicate a few months out.

    I think it is much better in this type of volatile mkt to focus on what is most important, at the time, rather than get too far ahead of the mkt.

    Some of the short term moves can be tricky, but the larger moves are most important. The main reason I have been waiting lately is that I am starting to shift my focus towards thinking "big" due to the larger cycles coming in play.

    This probably sounds somewhat cryptic, but I will explain soon.

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  66. Roger, difficult to say for certain at this time. I like the reaction so far, and am interested to see how the followthrough unfolds.

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  67. SC, thank you. i see. Would love to hear about those cycles! The cycles that you see are stronger than regular seasonal weakness for silver in august time frame? http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html
    i am also patiently waiting to scale in on a big move down. one step at a time, feels like we are so close..

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  68. SC, do you do cycle analysis on the USD/Euro? As a Canadian, i would also be interested in the CDN$ (if you do any work there).

    Much appreciated

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  69. There are implications for the currencies as well. I'll make some points about them as well. Thanks.

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  70. Jobs and Housing numbers are tomorrow, plus GDP on Friday. With the default looming, it could be a very bad next couple of days. Holding SPY puts.

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  71. I don't see anything pointing to a bottom yet. It does seem there is more to go.

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