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Saturday, January 30, 2016

$SPX Targets and VIX Update - Prepare for a Wild Ride!

SPX is testing resistance, and a surprise plunge is likely setting up for one day next week.  The SPX Cycle looks particularly weak in late February, and a lower low is probable.

VIX did, in fact, find resistance in the low 30's, and is now at historically significant support.  The VIX Cycle shows a spike up to complete the brown arrow Cycle high in late February.

Prepare for a wild ride!

30min Chart
















January 17th, 2016:

"The action in VIX recently has been relatively quiet though, and VIX tested 30 last week which historically has been a significant resistance. Short term support is around 20.

There is no panic currently."

Weekly Chart
















VIX Cycle 1:















58 comments:

  1. Well, SPX did rise into end of January as expected. Now watch the trap door open. This is a perfect setup for a plunge...

    SCJanuary 20, 2016 at 8:13 PM

    "Sideways and a slow grind up next likely into end of January."

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  2. Do you mean a big gap down and close on the low type of day?

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  3. Replies
    1. SPX should recover today, but yes the plunge coming.

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  4. Do u think plunge will happen this week?

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    Replies
    1. Yes it's likely the plunge completes this week because the SPX Cycle shows a high next week.

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  5. Looks like the plunge is happening already! :). Let's see if it continues tomorrow.

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  6. SC, what level for XIV would interest you?

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    Replies
    1. XIV should see $21 next week. It could be early, but it is starting to look attractive at this level.

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  7. SC, How does the next week look like in terms of VIX movement range?

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    Replies
    1. I'm expecting to see a strong rally for SPX next week, and VIX to slump.

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    2. Target for SPX next week is around 1975, and it should touch the 50 dma.

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  8. Is the big drop off the table for now?

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    Replies
    1. We're in the middle of the range right now. Next week expect a higher market. Then the larger plunge still coming in February.

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  9. the 2 vix out of range spike candles over last 7 days have precluded a run up of equities. Dates are the Jan.27th and today
    Having a hard time figuring these 2 incidents out...gigantic put orders to make them happen

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  10. SC, which date is the cycle high next week?

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    Replies
    1. High February 8th, then it turns down and a major low February 19th or 26th.

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  11. Thanks SC, March 10 is the next ECB monetary policy meeting and will almost certainly to ease further aggressively, agreed that a possible major low before that.

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    Replies
    1. Hmmm interesting given the timeline...

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  12. Your cycle dates are most likely accurate yet the actual cycle is inverted

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  13. SC, the Feb 8th turn date seems to be the low instead of the high, do you still see a strong rally to SPX 1975 next week?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, still the same. Higher next week. The Cycle is up.

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  14. SC, looking a market conditions this morning (Monday), where do you think a short term bottom is for SPX and for XIV?

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    Replies
    1. We reached the first target 1830 for SPX as expected.

      XIV retested the low, $20 next.

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  15. SC, when slv will and what will be the low and whe

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    Replies
    1. SLV rising towards $17 target as expected. There is some resistance in the $15's though, and that will take some time to penetrate.

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  16. 1975?.......SC mate what in hell are you looking at?

    Can you not see the bigger picture?......the big global banks SP's are in freefall.
    Commodities have been collapsing for months and the USD is perched on a ledge whilst gold and silver begins what is likely going to be a move that will make the move from October 2007 into 2011 look mild.

    Lower lows coming at any moment in US indices and not by a small amount either. Wait until the panic really sets in in March.
    March into April will bring forth an epiphany for all those that thought that the world was on the mend.

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  17. Deutsch Bank, Goldman, Merryl, JPM, RBS.......all in freefall. Ya think the markets are gonna bounce significantly out of this?

    The crude collapse along with last years Swiis Franc revaluation is just coming home to roost.
    This only the beginning. There are massive corporate defaults accumulating which is why the banks are taking a hit.

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  18. Another larger plunge is still due towards the end of Feb 2016. SC, what's your thoughts?

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    Replies
    1. SPX reached the 1830 target as expected. Everything going according to the plan.

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    2. Now that the 1830 SPX target has been achieved, 1975 SPX next within 1 week.

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  19. Hi SC, do you have views on Oil, after this relentless sell off ?

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  20. I'm waiting to see Crude end of February, and may consider taking a position at that time.

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    Replies
    1. SPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!

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    2. SC not sure about a rally, at best it is very choppy, but its still early, lets hope you are right! thx

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    3. Huston, we have a problem...

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  21. Hey SC,
    would have been nice to catch UVXY but in any event , seems like we are about to buckle up now...

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  22. SC, what's your thoughts about SPX range and time.. What about DUST? It may turn around..

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    Replies
    1. SPX reached the 1830 target, and now looks to be setting up to spike up for a week to 10 days to the next target area. It's moving according to plan.

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    2. The Gold and Silver Cycle is bullish for months to come. Gold is currently in an area of resistance, and due for consolidation next. Dips likely to be minor.

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  23. Your SPX cycle has been disappointing so far. Risk-off sentiment, equities are falling. How are you positioned?

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  24. SCFebruary 9, 2016 at 7:04 AM
    SPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!


    Really?

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  25. The market at this point looks extremely brutal... SC, I hope your estimate for SPX is correct for the next 10 days..

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  26. SPX did see slightly lower than my target today. I'm ok with that. The timing is late by a week but otherwise the outlook is the same.

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    Replies
    1. The support line is sloped down. Because it took a week longer it had to dip slightly lower to hit the support.

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    2. the red one or the purple one?

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  27. SC, where do you see next big support for XIV, it broke the 1/20 low $16.31 today?

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    Replies
    1. XIV tested the turquoise support again. Chart coming.

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  28. It's true...there is "potential" for a strong bounce into late next week, and maybe a bit past that...based on things like cycles, NYMO, OpEx, and Full Moon. But that path is far from guaranteed...even if it makes for a promising looking chart.

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    Replies
    1. Was my plunge scary enough? Haha...

      SCJanuary 29, 2016 at 8:08 AM

      "Yes same levels, charts are still pointing up for a few more days, but the Cycle shows a low coming next week. I am expecting a surprise "scary" plunge one day next week."

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    2. Now be prepared for the massive up in SPX that is underway. There is some resistance around 1910. Expect a dip and higher low 1850, and then spike up to 1975 SPX.

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