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Friday, February 12, 2016

XIV - Targets - Spiking Up!

XIV is ready to test the red trendline resistance which has been depressing price for months.  XIV should pop above the red line briefly. 

It is a battle currently with the major turquoise support pushing up, and the red line resistance depressing the price. 

30min Chart

















Before and Larger View:  Notice the interaction currently between the major turquoise support and the red resistance trendline. 

4 hour Chart:
 

55 comments:

  1. what is the target for gold, silver, and miner (GDX)?

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    1. Silver did form the double bottom specified by the Cycle. According to the Cycle, Gold and Silver are currently trading at some resistance so not expecting much further upside short term. However, the Cycle remains bullish for several more months with a target of $17 for Silver.

      Gold is performing better than Silver. Target several months out is around $1450.

      SC Nov 21, 2015
      "Silver is anticipated to be forming the second blue arrow low currently. In the Cycle the blue arrow lows are a double bottom pattern. Silver should now bounce for several months towards $17."

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  2. SC, is Feb 19th, 26th still the next cycle turn dates? We hit the high 1947 right on the turn date 2/1, then the next turn date 2/8 missed a few days as we hit a lower low on Thursday before almost a 60 handles rally.

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    1. Yes, Feb 19th, and Feb 26th are turn dates. Then March 13th.

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  3. What's your SPX target with XIV around $12.80 in March?

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  4. totally confused now. you said new index highs in march. i don't understand.

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  5. Hello SC...after silver reaches 17, are you still expecting a drop into the single digits? If so, any feel for timeframe? Thanks for the nice blog, btw.

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    1. Yes, still the same. It'll take Silver 3 or 4 months to finish this move up. Yes, the Cycle shows a huge leg down for Silver after $17 is reached.

      The leg down starts later this year, and it'll take about a year to complete with no bounces...

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  6. SC, do you see 1910 or 1850 next for SPX?? Futures got as high as 1892 which was close to SPX 1900

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  7. SPX rising to next target 1975 later in February. There will likely be a dip occurring 1910 to 1860, and up more after that to the target area. I'd start to be cautious around 1950.

    March is going to be one of the most interesting months of 2016. SPX is running out of time to bottom in February so the bottom is due early March 1780 SPX. Then a massive rise also in March to 2080.

    Following this timeframe, there probably will not be enough time in March to see a new all time high. We will have to wait several months for that.

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  8. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  9. SPX has reached the initial target of 1910 this morning.

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    1. Next fade to 1860ish? Thinking of a quick trade on UVXY

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    2. Yes, it should fade soon although we may not see that until next week. Maybe short on Friday and look to cover next week.

      Markets should dip, and continue higher for another week or so.

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  10. this looks just lie september october

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  11. SC, can you please provide SPX range of movements in terms of weeks until March 13, 2016.

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    1. SPX should be hitting resistance next few days and we should see about a 50 point dip soon - maybe not until early next week though. Then another spike up to the 1975 target.

      So overall SPX should rise for another week to 1975.

      Then plunge from 1975 to 1840 SPX end of the month of February.

      Rise first week of March from 1840 to 1925 SPX.

      Plunge second week of March from 1925 to 1780 March 13th.

      Like I said prepare for a wild ride!

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    2. So you are expecting 2080 after 1780 in March?

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    3. If not higher. The market will come close to making a new high.

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    4. We'll take it one step at a time, which is always best of course.

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    5. Of course. So 2080 could take much longer than March?

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  12. I will be posting an Oil chart shortly. It could be quite an unusual and exciting moment coming up for Oil. I'm keeping some capital ready to deploy at the best possible timing...

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  13. Thanks SC, Nice to have a great blog.

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  14. SC Are you suggesting Oil is going Up to $40
    Thanks

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    1. Oil may capitulate soon. So for now a lower low looks possible. Its getting cheap though and could be quite exciting as the bottoming process matures. Charts coming...

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    2. What is your best method of going long oil long term?
      Contango is killing USO etf.

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  15. SC, do you see today is the start of the 50 point drop or still higher tomorrow to the 19th the turn date?

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    1. Ideally tomorrow should be a high. Pullback more likely early next week.

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  16. What's would be the best entry ranhe for UVXY for the end of Feb decline to 1840? Thx

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  17. SC, do you expect to have a drop of 50 points on SPX as we speak until the next turn date of 02/26.

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    1. A high is due, and I do expect a drop of 50 points for SPX, then a higher high to the 1975 target.

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  18. SC, 1880 next since the high was around 1930?

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    1. Where do you see we close today on SPX, everyone seems to be looking for the 5th wave to a higher high?

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    2. I doubt much will happen today, probably flat.

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    3. Thanks SC, can't wait when March comes and just ride the bull train for the EASY Money!

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    4. Yes, the swings will become larger in March. It'll be great!

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  19. SC, will you buy uvxy today or monday

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    Replies
    1. Either one. UVXY should pop but only briefly from $40ish maybe by $8 or so.

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  20. XIV just touched the red resistance now.

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    1. Yes, rejected right at the red line resistance, but you still see it be able to pop over that resistance into the $20 area next week, right?

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    2. Yes, XIV should dip at this red resistance and then spike up above.

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    3. sc when or what price u will buy uvxy

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    4. Very soon. VIX hitting solid support here in the 19's. Might see VIX a quarter to half a point lower, and it should pop.

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  21. SC, XIV broke the red line resistance and going to your green circle target, do you still see 50 points drop coming or 1975 next?

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    Replies
    1. It has overshot slightly, but still expect the drop first and then the move higher.

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  22. Replies
    1. UVXY can see a pop to $45 to $50 here.

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  23. Nice setup for a pullback with the turn date coming due for the high on Friday, VIX near 200 dma and historical support, SPX at 50 dma resistance. SPX dip to around 1880, and run up to 1975 target.

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  24. SC, I really do not understand why you entered this long UVXY trade. From a reward to risk ratio, you will contend that this is not skewed in your favour. Second of all, your short-term cycle has been quite disappointing, suggesting that the probability of success of your call from a timming perspective may not be too great. I guess you and many traders (including myself) are inclined to trade just for a little of excitment. But I hope you do not bet the farm on that call, and I think you should focus on the big moves.

    All the best from Paris,
    Boby

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    1. I put on the hedge here Boby. In my opinion it is a pricey market at this level, and a dip is probable.

      Best to you as well!

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