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Saturday, January 9, 2016

XIV - Before/After - Model Continues

XIV formed the high in November at the price and time as anticipated according to the model. 

Since November XIV has declined in a matter consistent with the model, and is approaching the price and time identified for a major low according to the model.  The measured target has very nearly been reached and major turquoise support is just below.

This bottom is anticipated to be a major bottom with the model showing strong upside ahead.    

The SPX Cycle bottoms January 13th, 2016 which is also consistent with this analysis. 

2hour Chart
















Before:

October 8, 2015 analysis:

"Overall XIV should rise to test the September high. A November high for XIV is anticipated." 

















1997 Hong Kong Hang Seng Crash:
















81 comments:

  1. Perfect price and time predicted by the model for the November 2015 high, and now the January 2016 low!

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  2. SC thanks for your response in the previous thread.

    Mate I agree that a signuficant bounce is coming, however bounce being the appropriate word.
    I think we have entered a significant bear market that will play out in similar fashion to the dot com bubble and not the GFC as most suspect.

    The dot om bubble saw gold and gold stocks take off as the dollar peaked along with stocks. That occured because of the huge inflows into US stocks after the Asian currency crisis.
    This time around the catalyst for excessive US market valuations has been the European debt crisis.
    I think what will occur is that the huge amount of capital that flooded into the US from Europe during their debt crisis, thus driving US indices to record highs and helping to propel the USD higher, will be repatriated on massive selling once US indices reach tipping point.

    The selling by foreign investors will weaken the USD and overwhelm any safe haven buying. That in turn will be the driver of gold and silver.
    As you know once an asset class begins to rise that in itself garners further attention and drives momentum. Thatt is significantly increased during a crisis.
    So a significant bounce?....absolutely. New highs?......definitely not.

    Cheers

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  3. SC just to add to my previous. Looking at Au in all major currencies reveals a very significant picture.
    Not only is Au emerging from a USD bear market but it is moving up in all of the major currencies simultaneously. This only occurs during PM bull markets of which we are at the very commencement stage.

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  5. Spx rut all making dome shape top if it breaks 1920. May do rally for kissing the break in trend line. Which will be lower high

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  6. SC, What is your upside target range for XIV? Thanks

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    1. I expect it can bounce about $5 off the low from Jan 13 to Jan 19.

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  7. so SC what's the plan, buy more XIV around 1900, and unload if big bounce to 19th, then buy back later??

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    Replies
    1. Yes I think so. Can see a $5 pop off the low this week, and then should settle and consolidate. Feb looks like consolidation, and then March looks very psoitive. Target $30 or better for March.

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  8. I admit your speculation is interesting. Some of your calls have generally been in the right direction, perhaps lacking the correct timing and price though (which are the main ingredients for short term trading!). Rather, the calls have fit intermediate term trades (many weeks). You are very CLEAR on your calls as of right now:

    SCJanuary 8, 2016 at 8:06 AM
    It is Jan 19th. That's just the next high. Ideally the Cycle bottoms Jan 13, and spikes up into Jan 19. Then flatten out and consolidate sideways. Feb looks like consolidation. March looks extremely positive. I expect a new high for the S&P in March."

    SCJanuary 9, 2016 at 3:50 AM
    The bottom is due January 13th. Maybe we could see 1900 tested but it is getting so close to a major bottom...
    Timing is due for a major bottom, check out the new chart update posted!

    SCJanuary 8, 2016 at 6:10 AM
    I have a chart coming showing the bigger picture for this year and it is very possitive.

    SCJanuary 6, 2016 at 9:31 AM
    Cycles are still down into next week, but we are so close to support that I don't see significant downside.

    SCDecember 31, 2015 at 7:05 AM
    I think there will be another test of 2,000.

    SCDecember 27, 2015 at 2:57 PM
    Yes, a low is due early January, and then a powerful 6-month rally begins.

    SCDecember 23, 2015 at 11:19 AM
    We have the golden cross on SPX! Good for 400 points rally to the upside!!

    SCDecember 22, 2015 at 1:58 PM
    January looks wild! Let me explain with the charts coming...

    SCDecember 22, 2015 at 7:18 AM
    January is set to be an exciting month!

    SCDecember 11, 2015 at 11:45 AM
    SPX still on track for 2,130. As well we'll see 2,200 SPX within 6 months.

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    Replies
    1. Some of those are short term comments and some are intermediate term comments. Many are in response to certain questions from others so they should be read in the context of that particular discussion.

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  9. SC, what is more inportant, buying today's low price or January 13th low date?

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    Replies
    1. We may have hit the low yesterday, but it is a little early so probably settle and better test that level.

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  10. Do you have an outlook on Oil?

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    Replies
    1. I'm expecting a bounce from this $30 level towards $50.

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  11. sold all dust bought at 12.80 sold at 15.08 congrats to all

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  12. long xiv average 19.38 good luck all

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  13. January 20-26 = Major turning point on the S&P

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  14. low is in!
    next day gap up
    dji is the leader :)

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  16. I think SC is right, the low will be in tomorrow or the day after... the JPY is strengthening on my charts, and unless oil spikes strongly, we'll have to wait just a few hours longer

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    1. We did test 1900 SPX yesterday and a strong positive reaction. We're in the window now for the bottom.

      SCJanuary 9, 2016 at 3:50 AM

      "The bottom is due January 13th. Maybe we could see 1900 tested but it is getting so close to a major bottom..."

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  17. SC, the cycle turns negative again after the 19th?

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    Replies
    1. The next high is Jan 19th, then a low Feb 01.

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    2. Let's see how strong the reaction is into Jan 19th first. February seems it may be consolidation with no major moves either way. March looks very positive.

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  18. No rush. We will see the 1884 gap filled. We are going to spend some time in the 1800s this winter. Perhaps 1833. We are not going to new highs in March.

    Be Careful January 7, 2016 at 1:47 PM
    Possible tomorrow we hit S&P 1905.

    Be Careful January 6, 2016 at 10:31 AM
    We might see XIV 19.50, rather fast.

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  19. sold all xiv congrats who bought 19.38 to 21.84

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    Replies
    1. I also bought yesterday at $19.85 and exited this morning at $21.79.

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    2. XIV hit the blue resistance this morning. We'll see what happens here. I think it'll settle a bit, and I'll be looking to enter this week.

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    3. I do like the reaction though at the green line yesterday. Hit the green line and instantly up $3.

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  20. nugt looks good here long nugt at 22.46

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  21. SC, could you post that if you enter again tomorrow, thanks!

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  22. long xiv agin we are setting up for an explosive rally
    1970 or better

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  23. Replies
    1. Probably the market hit it's low on Monday, but to make it official wait and see this week.

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  24. Replies
    1. We are seeing selling pressure from Dec 30th into today, Jan 13th, which is interesting considering today is the day the SPX Cycle shows a low. Today/tomorrow looks good for a low.

      The Cycle turns positive today into Jan 19th.

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  25. target $25s for the $5 bounce off low?

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    Replies
    1. Around $24 give or take.

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    2. my guess in 1960 in spx which should brimg 23.25 on xiv

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    3. Thanks guys, good luck to all!

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  26. The LOW that we just saw on the S&P is very important!

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  27. If this market wants to rebound it has to respect today's low (1853 on a weekly basis). I would be concerned if it doesn't. @SC you have made some great calls. Does your analysis allow a LOW around 20-25 January instead of a high on the 19th?

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    Replies
    1. It shows a high on Jan 19th. In this type of market though the highs and lows can be bunched quite close together in timing. Possibly the market drifts a bit lower and then snaps up very quickly into the 19th. We should establish a trading range now, sideways and choppy for a month.

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  28. Thank you SC. If that bounce occurs, do you see any chance for the Dow to test again the 17000 mark?

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    Replies
    1. We should see a moderate bounce next week. Possibly Dow near 17000 provided it doesn't drift much lower. Feb looks sideways, and then March looks extremely bullish. New high or nearly so for the Dow in March looks likely.

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  29. if it goes to 17.90 i will buy 70000 shares

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  30. SC, I'm absolutely amazed by your forecasting. You're often off by only a day or so, and this time it seems you really nailed it. Thanks so much for making your thoughts public!

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    Replies
    1. Thank you my friend! There's very nice symmetry for an inportant low at this time. Equal time from the August low to the November high and then a January low.

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  31. Looks like August lows could be hit today, let's hope it takes a breather here. Long XIV around 20, buying more for short term pop.

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  32. Great call for the low SC , lets see how high SPX can go until your target date of Jan.19th for a high.
    Thanks for your hard work , keep us posted

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  33. sold all xiv at 20.60 will buy back tomm

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  34. long nugt at 21.30 average looking for gdx to tag
    15 in the next 11 days

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  35. 19.18 in, 20.51 out, good luck to all. Let contango settles little bit, will re-enter

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  36. 19.18 in 20.51 out let contango settles down little bit, rather against to it. We will see

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  37. I would prefer to have the market consolidate here until 20-21 January instead of rising into that timeframe. That would support a stronger reaction.

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  38. The SP 500 reached a low on January 14, suggesting that your cycle was a bit off.

    I am curious about your longer-term view. Do you see a sell-off in US equities at some point this year. I remember you mentioning that months ago but you seem to become more bullish again.

    Thanks for clarifying and belated happy new year, all the best for you and yours.

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    Replies
    1. Let me explain with the VIX Cycle update coming...

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  39. looks like 1877 then up into jan 25th then down hard in february

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  40. It appears we are going to 1815.69 in the not so distant future.

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  41. damn thing, stop goofing around and fill that slight 1862 gap already.

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  42. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  43. SC.. What is your comment about XIV moving forward?

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    Replies
    1. VIX action is telling of what is ahead, and is corroboated by my VIX Cycle which is negative. XIV looks great at these levels.

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  44. SC, do you see 19th may be is the low, not the high?

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    1. When the market acts like this (rarely) it can just ignore everything short term, and it's a signature of a capitulation move. Let me explain with the VIX Cycle update coming...

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  45. Replies
    1. Important VIX Cycle update coming this weekend. It'll explain the bigger picture going forward.

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  46. Long XIV 17.83, out 18.81 Good luck to all, waiting for next week setup. The contango is kind of concern

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  47. Dangerous trying to catch a falling knife

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  48. The time band between 30 Dec- 2 Jan was very powerful and brought the market down as expected (see my comment on 12/21 http://www.investing.com/members/200053108/comments). The next time band is due on 20-26 January. Keep in mind that 25-26 January is very strong for the USD index and the EUR/USD pair. Good luck.

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