Pages

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

XIV - Target Reached!

The targets for September have been reached both for XIV and UVXY.  The market is not likely strong enough yet to rally much though.  It needs some backfilling for about 1 week to firm.

Once that occurs, then the market will be in a position to spike up sharply to the next target. 

30min Chart
















After:  Midfork price objective has been reached for UVXY!

30min Chart
















Before:

60min Chart















87 comments:

  1. The initial price objectives have been met according to plan.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The market isn't likely strong enough to rally. There will likely be another chance to pick up XIV in the $23's next week. $25 is resistance currently.

    ReplyDelete
  3. For SPX 1925, can see 1890 next week, and then 1970.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, are you looking to pick up UVXY this week?

      Delete
    2. UVXY may be worthwhile around $52 for a pop but mostly interested in XIV.

      Delete
    3. SC, XIV may be ready tomorrow

      Delete
  4. SPX 1925 reached today, wait for 1890 to pick up XIV, is that what you are seeing SC?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes, and sure enough 1925 SPX was resistance and now trading near 1890.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you a buyer here of XIV or would you wait till next week?

      Delete
  6. Monday/Tues are probably ideal, but little downside for the market here. Very powerful short squeeze rally due to start Wednesday next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. bears really dropped the ball so far, do you see XIV may come back to 23s?

      Delete
  7. XIV should see around $23.25 early next week ideally. I think this rally today is premature, and should fade back.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC
    we saw XIV @ $23.50 already today... ?
    markets are wild thats for sure..

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yes, probably this rally will fade for a few days. VIX testing 50 dma support today.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Bottom in. Gorgeous daily candle. Wow....the strength.

    ReplyDelete
  11. just a wild and frustrating day, looks like they may want to hit that 1970 target

    ReplyDelete
  12. SC , do you see the S&P rallying up to 2030 or new all time high??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, eventually, but there is more weakness ahead first for the S&P.

      Delete
  13. SC, if they want to push this further, UVXY should find strong support around $43?

    ReplyDelete
  14. SC what SPX target next do you see if 1970 hit?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX near 1980 now, looks like 2000 first before any reversal.

      Delete
  15. SC, when do you see UVXY target $120 hit and what target you see for SPX with UVXY $120, below 1800? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The big bad bear move is coming, as I will explain soon!!

      Delete
  16. What is that circle on SPX near 2100 in November? Odd..

    ReplyDelete
  17. 5 up days in a row! SC, UVXY is in your target zone now, looks like you entered a little early. But risk/reward seems better today for a S&P short.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Tomorrow likely a significant down day.

    ReplyDelete
  19. But the cycle high for SPX is due later in the week. So down tomorrow and then a little higher.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Do you have a revised UVXY exit or is it still around $58?
    Thanks Z.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still $58, and a much larger, higher move after that.

      Delete
  21. SC .. do you see the spx visiting 1900 by end of this month?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, market toppy once again, large move down coming.

      Delete
  22. SC, what is the cycle high for SPX do you see this week?

    ReplyDelete
  23. 2,000 SPX is very strong resistance.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Price objectives have all been met for XIV, UVXY, and SPX.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does that mean down from here verses down today followed by a higher high?

      Delete
    2. The price objectives were met early, which likely means that the market will dip here, and then retest again later in the week.

      Delete
    3. Looks like 1970 was held intraday today. Do you think we go as low as 1950 by tomorrow? Or this it and back up to test 2000? thanks

      Delete
    4. May see a little lower tomorrow. I'm not seeing much downside this week though.

      Delete
  25. 2035 gap will be filled sooner rather than later. But so will the 1951 gap. Not shocking or all that interesting. Anyway, this year will end flat to up. Not down. Prepare.

    ReplyDelete
  26. "However, later in October may see surprising strength." aha..

    ReplyDelete
  27. Great calls on the price levels SC!

    ReplyDelete
  28. Good earnings: 2035-40 up.
    Bad earnings: 1868-1884 down but then 2035 anyway

    ReplyDelete
  29. SC do you still see higher highs later in the week?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There will probably be another attempt and failure at 2,000 SPX.

      Delete
  30. SC, is the blue arrow low reached in Silver?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, first blue arrow low was likely reached. Second blue arrow low due this year as well which provides a nice setup.

      Delete
  31. SC, with $58 target now, do you still see $120 on UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UVXY made the move up to the midfork met the first target and declined as anticipated, however, if it breaks below $35 the turquoise support then the higher target is invalidated for the short term.

      Having said that the VIX Cycle does show VIX eventually retesting 50 but that is several years away.

      Delete
  32. Do you still see 2000 hold after another pump today?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Cycles are still positive for the market going into Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  34. SC
    are you still holding UVXY and waiting for $58 or did you have a stop in place.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, holding. My stops are based both on price and time.

      Delete
  35. We have met our price objectives but let's just wait and see how price behaves at this level.

    ReplyDelete
  36. What stops do you have in place for UVXY since your purchase @ $ 51.55

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The previous low at $35 is important. If it were to dip to that level I would look to exit on a bounce.

      Delete
  37. Today looks weak in the SPX Cycle but tomorrow and Friday look positive. First attempt at 2,000 SPX failed but wait and see for tomorrow, Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  38. When would you see UVXY head back to your exit target of $58

    ReplyDelete
  39. I'm just waiting for the market right now. We have met the price objectives but the timing is early. I do my updates at turning points in the market.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Would you sell UVXY to minimize your loss since you bought $51.55 or just a waiting game at the moment hoping it won't drop to $35

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm holding. It really would not surprise me if it dips to $40 first but expect it to be higher next week.

      Delete
  41. Clear failure at 2,000 as expected. However, probably it'll try again I suspect.

    SCOctober 6, 2015 at 11:11 AM

    "There will probably be another attempt and failure at 2,000 SPX."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you see it may break 2000 intraday, but not close above it?

      Delete
    2. Yes, a push just above 2,000 SPX would likely result in a plunge. It looks like a great short setup.

      Delete
  42. SC, what levels of support for UVXY are you watching between 43 and 35?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The turquoise line is around $37 to $38. If that is tested I would expect a strong reaction and spike up to $48 or so.

      Delete
    2. SPX above 2000 with some strength and UVXY near $38. Is this near the top more pain for the shorts. Let's see!

      Delete
  43. SC
    I'm confused as probably the rest of us , if you're expecting to drop that much what are you doing with your recent buy at $51.55 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm expecting UVXY to be higher next week. Possibly it could dip into Friday, but higher next week.

      Delete
  44. SC, do you see SPX 1870 area is not the final low of this correction?

    ReplyDelete
  45. Well the VIX Cycle has just entered a prolonged period of high volatility. VIX will not stop until it hits 50 again, and there are numerous big spikes in between.

    So really this is just the beginning....

    Having said that currently I am getting the impression that the market flattens out here and burns some time, grinds along. Meanwhile though market conditions are deteriorating... The next big move will be to the downside.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks SC, I guess what I am trying to ask is that now everybody views the double bottom is in, do you think we have one more wave down to create a lower low under the 1870 area, before we resume maybe the last leg of this bull run?

      Delete
    2. Yes, I do expect another leg down this year. However, I don't think it'll start until November.

      Delete
  46. Do you still see uvxy going to 120 anytime in the next 2 months?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The way it's trading I doubt it'll make it over $90 this year. A more conservative target is $80.

      Delete
  47. SC, to be clear, you see 1900 as possible floor for this month, bounce, then another big wave down Nov?

    ReplyDelete
  48. SC do you see a top here or SPX 2020. You are right. we are having a hard time with SPX 2000

    ReplyDelete
  49. XIV

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

    ReplyDelete
  50. SC, based on Thursday's action, does your analysis change in any way, i.e SPX, UVXY and XIV targets. thanks

    ReplyDelete
  51. This is a very exciting setup for the bears! Today's price action was perfect!! Let me explain with the new analysis coming tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete