The pink line geometry marked the bottom of that "V" dip.
Most importantly this "V" dip shows exactly where the market is currently in terms of the large Cycle.
Daily Chart
Notice that the "V" dip can be seen clearly on the Deja Vu Cycle just after point C.
good work SC
ReplyDeletethe next pull back may not be as big as the euro crisis
maybe less than 10%, then market is set for another run up
uvxy most likely would double from the current price
but going to wait for another vix pull back, long after
I do think VIX double bottomed in Feb, but may see 13 again before it is ready to rise much.
Delete30's for VIX is realistic on a dip to the red trendline.
Delete30 might not be the exact number but high 20s are possible
Deletemy next entry point for hvu is within 2.6, anywhere near that price will triger my buy in a heart beat
i still have a lot in the $4s, would have it all back soon
the bet right now is on this thursday employment report, will see how the market reacts
SC so the next move your seeing a dip to the S&P 1450 area?
ReplyDeleteThe Cycle suggests that the market momemtum is waning. I don't think we are quite ready to drop right now, but getting closer and the next move in the Cycle is to drop to test the red trendline.
DeleteI think it needs a little time to run out of steam, churn up here. Start to drop later in March. Then yes, drop to red trendline.
DeleteI have more charts coming soon. It was important to show where the market is currently in the Cycle.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIf market moves 50pts up from here to 1560+ level. Does it render your model invalid? .. or will it simply mean that the timing is wrong and the rally is not over yet?
Based on this model the 1530 high may still be exceeded slightly, but there is no hope for the market to go up to that level.
DeleteSC, If SnP trades up to 1560+ will it render your model invalid?
ReplyDeleteAt that point your short position will be in the red 90pts and wrong in timing.
Or will it be still ok according to your work?
The model predicts that the market will not trade up to that level on this current rally, and the next major move is to plunge to the red trendline.
DeleteSo, if we do move higher than the model is invalid, correct?
DeleteThe model will not predict an exact top tick, but realistically the model predicts little upside, and a major move lower.
DeleteIf there was any reason to suspect the model, I would say so immediately. It's not just price, it is time, and the behaviour of the market.
Man i dont know how you can trade this successfully where you go in 100% and allow market run against you so many points and being off on timing by months and still be ok with it.
DeleteIt's a pretty simple strategy. The behaviour of the market has already provided enough confirmation to the cycle continuing. For example the VIX has already spiked, and indicates market topping.
DeleteThe cycle predicts a massive decline and full blown bear market.
The fact is that it is a large scale Cycle, and I've split it up into phases each of which takes months to occur.
DeleteSC, uvxy still going to $19 or has that target deteriorated due to contango?
ReplyDeleteI think VIX can rise into the 30's when SPX tests the red trendline. So that level looks reasonable for UVXY.
DeleteHI SC
ReplyDeletedont know if anyone has been reading my blog
but Ive been advocating a run to 1566 by March 28th
After which we are expecting the equity markets worldwide to give back up to a 25% loss in April
Later
Jay
The initial downside target suggested by the Cycle is down to the red trendline. So about a 10% drop. April looks weak.
DeleteHi Jay
DeletePlease advise your blog name.
Ken
http://jaywiz.blogspot.com
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteLooks like no turning back for market, your VIX prediction for 13 will come first!
What you think..
I think SPX may trade up to 1534 next then dip to 1510.
Deleteso vix at 13? I see on chart free fall till 14 or more...
Deletemorem likely to be 13.5 on my chart
DeleteALL TIME HIGH FOR DOW! WOW....congratulations to all longs...
ReplyDeleteYes, sure enough hit the 1334 level mentioned yesterday. Ready to dip again to around 1515.
ReplyDelete1534
Deleteextract from one article....
ReplyDeleteRude Trends
When to Buy... When to Sell
"You talk of sell in May," says a numbers-minded reader. "Well, I'm looking at the number of days this rally has lasted. Starting at March 2009 until now is roughly 4 years or 1460 days. If I'm not mistaken that's in the neighborhood of historical all-time record rallies. Buy if you must."
Well, let's go to the numbers and find out. Here are some stats from Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog:
"The current rally that began in March 2009 is now 3.8 years old -- that is the average duration of bull markets since 1929. (The current Fed interventions are the obvious wild card).
"I have noted repeatedly over the years how similar this cycle was to 1973-74. That rally went over 6 years before a serious 1980 recession and correction. This is not my forecast (I don't have one) but I would not be surprised if the current move is somewhat parallel to the post 73-74 rally."
So there you go. We're at about an average length for a post-Great Depression cyclical bull market. In order to officially break the cycle, we would need to see a 20% drop.
SC...you are just darn too good. How sdid you see that 1534 on the S&P? Amazing skills. I am with you here. Buying back my UVXY!!!
ReplyDeleteSPX hit a higher high today than Feb, but the VIX also has a higher low than Feb. This is perfect for the bears.
ReplyDeleteWasn't this the same argument you made in January? You thought the VIX was on an uptrend, til it made a new low.
Deletegot half of my orders filled, would pick some more if goes down more
ReplyDeletevix usually go down 10% when spx spike up like this
but today is different
what does it tell ya =D
VIX made a double bottom Jan and Feb.
ReplyDeleteSo it was never been on an uptrend in January? More of a consolidation? I am trying to learn from you. So far your UVXY has been extraordinary.
Deletehere you go SC.
ReplyDeleteIf nothing has changed then why outcome would be different?
We are going higher, i do agree we are in the top formation process. The key is to put on positions at the right timing.
Timing here - is absent.
The timing on the chart with the V dip worked out beautifully. The Cycle has done an excellent job of predicting the moves on a large scale.
ReplyDeleteAnd according to your cycle we should dip to 1415 area next, right?
DeleteThe large Cycle predicts that the market will drop to test the red trendline.
DeleteHi Sc,
DeleteIm new here but like your charts and geometry and approach. I do T Theory time forecasting...and have a T expiring on the Dow for this leg about March 27. What is your timeframe for this move?
I don't have an exact date, but I can tell you that the "V" dip is roughly half way through the topping process in my Cycle. This means roughly 2 weeks time from now.
DeleteSo while I can't say exactly your date looks to be in the ballpark. Thank you for that T date!
"The timing on the chart with the V dip worked out beautifully."
ReplyDeleteYet, your are down significantly? You are down 70 points on the S&P alone, and 40% in UVXY.
Come on man, you have been bearish calling crashes since 2011 correction and biggest buying opportunity in last few years. You did not believe in this rally, if one is bearish long enough - of course the reaction will come at some point. You have been fighting the tape for so long.
ReplyDeleteAt this point you do need a big break just to recover.
I'll post the profit when I take it. I was bullish during many spots as well. I was extremely bullish from Nov into Jan!
ReplyDeleteWhat is your average % return on the portfolio in previous years?
DeleteSC, Been lying low since my last good trade in UVXY....gut feeling says we won't see below 8.5 on this move up in the index.
ReplyDeleteS&P target is 1565 for end of wave 3.
Buying UVXY today at 9.40, drip feed to 8.5.
I think there is another dip next to 1515 or so. Then market has one final pop after that. The key word there is final...
DeleteHI Sc,
Deletewhen do you expect this dip to 1515 any time projection on that?
I do expect to dip by Monday.
DeleteHi SC,
Deleteyour welcome for Dow T day..we have Delta mid term low coming in next Wednesday 3/13 ( I do Delta and Gann with my Ts) is it possible your 1515 dip could occur inside a window extended to next Wedneday?
Yes, that Mon to Wed window looks about right to me. Thanks again!
Deletebears make money, bulls make money
ReplyDeleteno need to pointing fingers here guys....
SC's predictions is pretty good compares to others or even the people on TV
but in the end, no one can be correct all the time
Amazing how weak SPX has been. It has gained nothing since year 2,000. It gained nothing during the housing bubble from 2,000 to 2,007, and still nothing since 2007 with all of the intervention since then.
ReplyDeleteVery bearish obviously with the market struggling this way.
Ever occurred to you this has been a MASSIVE sideway where you can play both ways? You can state it has gone nowhere since 2000, but for some folks who bought in 2009, it is a double in returns.
DeleteYou have been a BEAR since 1040!!!
Yes, spx double from 2009.....133% return after four years....and NOW is a good time to jump into the market??!! 3400 spx woud have to happen for another run like that.....but by all means...buy, buy, BUY!
DeleteInteresting to see the RUT weak with the lower high from Feb.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeletei also have a feeling this market is in for a big decline, besides i think you are doing a great job. I found this indicator "the greedometer" that is a combination of several indicators that is predicting a market top very very soon. Check it out in 2000,2007 and 2011
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/danger-as-stock-market-greedometer-flashes-red-2013-02-28?link=MW_popular
what do you think?
Thank you for that. Well, using my large Cycle the next big picture move should be similar size to the 2000 drop. So that makes sense.
Deletedo you mean in terms of the period it took to fall or in terms of percentage change? when do you expect the decline to finish 2013,2014?
DeleteSimilar in both time and price. About a 2 year bear.
DeleteSC: your 2 year bear fits with Delta targets and Armstrpng cycles..will you be publishing the cycle work you do here or elsewhere; I would like to follow your work and contribute to you for greator good if possible. Here is our T work take: 18 month bear cycle due after top on August 8. Correction low of consequence April 30 roll over of equities around or after August 8 and down into super long term Delta low arriving April 2014. 2015 rebound high and punultimate M cycle low of Terry Laundry from T Theory occuring 2016. Those are broad dates..but they are very strong..would like to read your long time cycle work and like the geometry work you do reminds me of T work. Can I learn more about geometry set ups anywhere to work inside my Ts?
DeleteThanks SC like your site and your work you are on target and your UVXY trade has been profitable for me. I have been trading the spikes with my Ts.
Yes, I'll have longer term Cycle charts coming. I like T work too. In June/July 2011 I posted many T type time cycles. For example the July high and crash low August 2011:
Deletehttp://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2011/07/spx-1-month-roadmap.html
I like to work with Cycles such as this Deja Vu Cycle above. Then I use the forks and other geometry to refine that anticipated behaviour into the current market environment.
Thanks again for your contributions. We are heading into an interesting time period!
Its interesting how NOBODY believes the Dow new high....IMO we are entering a new bull mkt.
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't mean UVXY can't go up as in the short term the mkt may be overextending itself around 1565.
Nobody believes it today, but give it some time. Yes, people are leery today, but watch how the mood lightens up, and people let their guard down over the next week or two.
DeleteThen the market will be primed for one heck of a drop.
Yes Sc I see the set ups for the 18 mo bear and outlined dates above based on Delta, Gann and T work..you are on target..it will be the greatest short opportunity of a life time.
DeleteNygaltwh, when it drops people will say the Mayans were right!
DeleteCharles Nenner:
ReplyDelete"Take Chips Off the Table, Market Catastrophe Brewing"
"I still have a target of 5,000 for the Dow that we should reach in 2017 or 2018, and then we'll get a huge bull market so it's best just to go to sleep with your money until then," he said. "People should be asking, 'How much can I lose?' rather than 'How much can I make?'"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100526315
"People should be asking, 'How much can I lose?' rather than 'How much can I make?'"
DeleteI couldn't agree more with this statement. Traders are obsessed with what the top tick is going to be.
Beware of Charles Nenner....his CNBC calls are not that good. I subscribe to him, enjoy the research but his calls haven't been that good to be fair.
ReplyDeleteSC, I think the wave 3 finishes at 1560, wave 4 down to 1500. I'm buying UVXY here, what would be your conservative target for the index at 1500? 13-15??
Thanks.
SPX can see a decent dip here to around 1515 in the window Mon to Wed. UVXY can pop to $10.50ish imo.
DeleteUVXY should visit near 8.95 and hold above 8.58 by today and tomorrow. Then immediate upside target 10.53 followed by 11.20
ReplyDeleteThat was indus equities..used wrong account
DeleteSC, if I understand correctly, UVXY one pop to 10.50, then drop to...9ish...then the next rise is THE rise to $19 as spx plunge to test red trend line?..
ReplyDeleteSo many up, down, up, down, i'm starting to lose track!
Lol. I have charts coming for UVXY. It looks really close to starting a steady trend higher for months. If it breaks up through $10.50 on the next pop, then the uptrend is underway imo. In that case then could see $11.20, dip to $10 and up, up, up from there...
DeleteWhen SPX breaks 1495 trend would then be down and confirmed by my work.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteJoe .. When and about what price do you think the market will top before heading down ? do you see the market topping for good in 2013?
ReplyDeleteThanks in Advance.
Regards:
Kevin
Hey SC. I see you are down 35% but I think that will turn around for you. I decided to trade my way out of my loss and now am only down 5%. I also updated with new charts if you care to look.
ReplyDeletewww.timethetrade.blogspot.ca
Keep up the good work, I still do read your blog. I do think you need an exit plan, as my charts are suggesting we are going much higher.
The V dip occurred as predicted by the large Cycle. So the exit plan is to take profit with a drop for SPX to the red trendline. This is the next move in the Cycle.
ReplyDeleteSC, do you have any rough sense of timing for that drop? When it will begin (i.e. when the price high occurs) and when it will end? Thanks...
DeleteYes, I'm working on that chart right now, and will be posted today.
DeleteI think dip next to 1520 or so and I like March 20th for the high. Not much higher than the current level.
The Cycle predicted the V dip in yellow almost exactly to the day. So when I take the next measurement March 20th is the predicted date for the high and downturn to commence.
DeleteLong GLD @ 152.50 .. target 160.00
ReplyDeleteNew post is up.
ReplyDelete