A small dip to the white trendline looks likely as the next short term move with a final peak approximately March 20th.
The Cycle suggests little upside and the next major phase is to slide down to Point P with a test of the red trendline for SPX. VIX currently has a higher low than the double bottom formed in January and February, and provides strong evidence in support of the Cycle.
2hour Chart
Likely that the next move is to dip to the white trendline which is around 1520 imo. Then a final pop into approximately March 20th.
ReplyDeleteThere is currently a sense of nervousness about this rally. That feeling should burn off by March 20th, and the market will then be ripe for decline to the red trendline.
ECRI confirmed again today their call that US recession started in July 2012 - eight months into recession already!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/u-s-recession-began-middle-of-2012-achuthan-says-w1RsvrcETIGv~p1LSvwIIg.html
what is helping the bulls right now are earnings
ReplyDeleteall estimates has been lowered....otherwise none of the company would meet the target
the street plans to lower their target for the next quarter too
This market is not stopping till 1600 now....everyone is bear now and that's not ideal scenario for bears.
ReplyDeleteSC, SnP 500 is 9 pts away from 1560. Which you said according to your model we could not reach. "but there is no hope for the market to go up to that level." you said.
ReplyDeleteAt what point do your scratch your analysis as invalid? I know the answer - never.
"SCMarch 4, 2013 at 7:45 AM
Based on this model the 1530 high may still be exceeded slightly, but there is no hope for the market to go up to that level."
Would winter turn into summer if one day or week was warm?
Deletethe problem is SC - you got your seasons wrong.
DeleteIf somebody is calling for winter tomorrow, day after day - guess what in several months they will eventually be right. You know what they say about broken clock?
I said the model would not predict the top tick of the market. The purpose of the model is to predict the major moves in the market. I've never made any prediction as to the top tick.
ReplyDeleteTraders are obsessed with speculating on the top tick, and that is a game of little value.
SCMarch 4, 2013 at 8:30 AM
"The model will not predict an exact top tick, but realistically the model predicts little upside, and a major move lower.
If there was any reason to suspect the model, I would say so immediately. It's not just price, it is time, and the behaviour of the market."
SC usually you are fair, but you stated that it wouldn't exceed 1560 based on the "model"....
DeleteMan up to that call.
No, what I said was that the model does not predict a move up to that level.
DeleteTo be clear my model does not predict a move up to that level, but I have always said would not predict a top top tick either. The purpose of the model is not to predict that top tick but rather to identify major trends in the market.
DeleteDeepsMarch 6, 2013 at 11:18 AM
ReplyDeleteUVXY should visit near 8.95 and hold above 8.58 by today and tomorrow. Then immediate upside target 10.53 followed by 11.20
I'm long from 8.81..
Nice job! $10.70 to $11 looks about right.
DeleteCalling the top is a dangerous game. i am now fully back in uvxy at the open. let's see if i can kill it again.
ReplyDeleteIm back in at 9.03....slightly more than I paid for the decaying beast last time round.
ReplyDeleteTend to agree the comment above...target 10.5-11
HOWEVER - a small possibility we have just seen the top of the wave 3 so might need to be nimble here & not get fixated on levels.
SC you are shorting it now just like you did not buy early 2012 rally.
ReplyDelete"This is not a bull" - we are 200 pts higher now on the SnP. Numbers tell the truth.
http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip32370625066a2808_zpse4244057.png
I think we are up into the end of March. Here is my roadmap which called Feb 25 - Feb 28 as bottom (didn't go back as far as I thought it would though):
ReplyDeletehttp://timethetrade.blogspot.ca/p/s-roadmap-till-mid-june.html
Look at the alternate roadmap.
VIX futures will roll over into the next contract, and the downside increases yet again for UVXY holders. It is good ONLY for a trade, NOT a buy and hold.
UVXY has to close above 9.52-9.59 by today's close to has a sustainable rally for this beast. Waiting for closing price and action near 9.50 area.
ReplyDeleteBest of luck traders.. there is no point in bashing each other. The market is like that and no one has a crystal ball to predict all the ups and downs. Traders who post their trades are real heroes and they get bashed. I've been there, done that for 2 years calling top and bottom SPX daily. One mistake, bloggers bashed me and I stopped that free service. Now I'm posting to get clarity for my own trades.
"Winners Recognize Their Limitations, But Focus On Their Strength. Losers Know Their Strength, But Focus On Their Weakness"
i rember u used to blog on alitta blog. there was a big mix-up
DeleteYes. After that I had my own blog for 2 years. Myacetraders.com. It became too stressful once I started having paid subscribers. I spent most of my time answering questions than doing my own trade. Stopped the service when my performance was at its peak.
DeleteI remember when you started your own blog. Your calls at atilla's blog were really good. I just rememered your id indusequities.
DeleteAbsolutely agree, and that is why on my blog I post my trades in real time, and my rationale.
DeleteCash VIX looks like it can pop to 15 short term. I am pretty sure we'll see a dip for SPX next week to 1520ish but not ready for major quite yet. Short term cycles were positive for SPX until yesterday, now are negative Mon to Wed.
ReplyDeleteSC, so this is not a BULL MARKET? Do you still think we will hit 1025 this year? You are down significantly on your shorts. Why not add more?
ReplyDeleteThis is the end of a bull market in my work. The Cycle predicts a major bear market next lasting years (much lower than 1025). I take it each phase at a time, as always, and plan to take profit on a drop to the red trendline.
ReplyDeleteBut you never gave much credit to this BULL. You have been telling your followers to short the majority of the time. Your followers should just stay long and strong and they be up significantly, agree?
ReplyDeleteI have not been telling anyone to do anything. Since I started this site in 2011 the opportunity for bulls and bears has been pretty equal. It has been choppy over this time. I have been bullish and bearish, and there have been deep corrections and rallies. I was very bullish during the Nov to Jan period.
ReplyDeletere: Since I started this site in 2011 the opportunity for bulls and bears has been pretty equal.
DeleteThe sp' has recored 4 lower monthly closes..out of 18.
'pretty equal' ?
--
SC, come on...really.
Ok that is a good point in terms of time and monthly closes.
DeleteWhat I meant is that the big gains in this bull were from 2009 666 SPX to 1370 in 2011. Since that high in 2011 at 1370 it fell 300 first, and SPX was trading at 1370 just a few months ago.
Sure the bulls have had the advantage but not a big difference since 2011.
I'm not sure if this bull market run is over or just the begin of a secular one. As long as 1576.00 is not violated, we cannot confirm a BULL nor a BEAR projection. If market reverses after testing, not violating, 1576.00 and close below 1450 level during the coming months, its a BULL market for now.
ReplyDeletethank you for saying this clearly. some people have their head in the sand.
DeleteAccount performance - the bottom line - tells whether you are right or wrong.
You can not be right and lose money. Losing money means you are currently wrong!!!
I'm sure SC will not be posting all his trade and he has no obligation to do the same. It will kill many newbie traders since they jump into every trade without understanding ones trading style, let that be short term or long term.
DeleteToday I posted my 9.81 entry long in UVXY because its a swing trade for the month. But I've traded this beast at least 20-30 times in the last two weeks using hourly, daily, weekly and monthly. Each trade time and style was different and if I post those trades no one will understand unless they trade my charts.
Hope this helps the board to concentrate on building their own trading style by learning from others, than watching other trades :)
I do post ALL my trades, why not? If I'm wrong, I need to man up to the fact taht I'm wrong. I'm down 5% for the year, come next week I expect to be up 3% at least.
DeleteI post my trades here if you care:
http://timethetrade.blogspot.ca/p/current-t.html
So SC, are you making money?
ReplyDelete"Account performance - the bottom line - tells whether you are right or wrong.
You can not be right and lose money. Losing money means you are currently wrong!!!"
Yes, my last trades were profitable. Had a great run from Oct to Jan. I am looking forward to taking profits on my current trades on a drop to the red trendline per my strategy and model.
ReplyDeleteJeesh! As soon as the bashers come out in full force its a good sign VIX is bottoming...last time vix was in the 12's every second post bash SC...then up 50% a few days later.
ReplyDeleteListen, no one forces you to put buy & sell orders. Its all on you so take some responsibility. I could have sold all uvxy at 13+ but i only sell partial and partial XIV. I know XIV days are numbered so i never will be fully out uvxy until vix hits 40 plus.
Much safer to short via SPXU if you think the SPX will drop, and if the VIX goes nuts, buy XIV when the vix is 40+.....I long for those days.
DeleteHa! Yeah thats funny! When VIX was in the 40's for 3 months and tvix zoom from 15 to 110 i wished to see VIX back at 13! At one point I held 10,000 XIV at 5.53... But sold too soon (most of it 10-12)... Boo!
DeleteAh well, XIV will see $5 again. Everything goes up n up n up until it stops!
SC I think you've been pretty astute with this pattern and you appear to be onto something given the record to date.
ReplyDeleteSo if I am following this correctly you are looking at a decline to the red trendline in the low to mid 1400's followed by a bounce to the magenta trendline and then we get the big fall to below 1100?
This Cycle has accounted for every major move going back for years. The Cycle specifically predicted the "sharp rally phase". I named the "sharp rally phase" due to the Cycle, and it sure was appropriate! The fact that the last "V" dip in Feb occurred still confirms that the Cycle is working, and also that the rally is in the late stages.
DeleteAccording to this Cycle we are simply going into winter - a bear market. In other words this is a deflationary environment. There are whispers of hyperinflation, but the reality is that this Cycle is clear about what is ahead. The market is heading into winter, and cannot skip winter and go back into another summer. It just simply does not work that way.
Yes, you have the concept. Although the rally is not quite over, it is due to be over within weeks. The next major move is to drop to the red trendline around 1420. Then set to bounce again from the red trendline. You may be wondering what is that magenta trendline? That comes from my 5 year Cycle chart - the last chart from Dec 1st analysis:
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/12/spx-december-plan.html
The magenta trendline was a perfect hit on the last dip so the market is behaving in tune with the large scale geometry.
Mate i'm on The same page RE deflation. Look at the weekly chart of copper.
DeleteAppears ready to break down from that triangle. Also the AUD is breaking down.
Cheers
"This Cycle has accounted for every major move going back for years."
ReplyDeleteDid your cycle call the end end of the bull November 2011. You stay short in January 2012, and I recalled Zig Zag saying the January 2012 rally will blow everyone away. That rally blew everyone away indeed, including you. Go back and review your notes.
Like SC's calls or not, it's time to move on to the next trade incorporating your own DD.
DeleteI know many experienced traders positioning with caution around this time.
What's your view for the next weeks/months?
I wasn't actually aware of this Cycle until April 2012 when I called for the waterfall decline in the Cycle. That was an accurate call.
ReplyDeleteSc, updated VIX, uvxy chart would be nice. Would help translate spx moves better. Thks!
ReplyDelete