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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

$SPX - VIX Spike Implications

SPX plunged and met the minimum target area both in terms of price, and on time.  However, the market still may decline lower this week.  Several important lines of geometry rest below.  Best to wait for further evidence of a low forming.

The behaviour in the VIX suggests a short term low relatively soon though.  Probably this week. 

Large Cycle updates will be coming shortly.  

30min Chart
 
VIX spiked above the white trendline.  A spike such as this typically suggests a short term low for SPX is nearby.

However, the longer term picture suggests a major crisis is just beginning.  Not serious yet, but the critical red and white trendlines are approaching.

Daily Chart







Posted by at

75 comments:

  1. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 5:57 AM

    Even though the minimum area has been reached, really need to give it some time here.

    The market still may go lower this week before it rebounds in March.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 6:27 AM

    SCFebruary 20, 2013 at 12:26 PM

    "Powerful move for VIX today off the double bottom. This is the start of a large months long move higher for VIX imo."

    ReplyDelete
  3. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 6:29 AM

    SCFebruary 20, 2013 at 6:13 AM

    "UVXY still looks great, and again, this is in terms of the bigger picture. UVXY did come down a little over $1 during the last month. All that has happened is that VIX made a double bottom with January. The fact VIX is holding so well is indicative of a market that is peaking. VIX agrees with my large Cycle.

    I think people will be very surprised by how high UVXY reaches over the next couple months."

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 6:33 AM

    Small bounce today, but best to wait until Wed/Thurs and see more evidence of a low forming imo.

    ReplyDelete
  5. PayDayFebruary 26, 2013 at 6:43 AM

    SC, how does what you wrote translate to UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:01 AM

      I still think there may be a higher high coming for UVXY later this week.

      After that I do expect it cools off again early March, then a much larger move up.

      Delete
    2. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:01 AM

      I'm working on charts for UVXY.

      Delete
  6. indusequitiesFebruary 26, 2013 at 6:44 AM

    SPX range 1485 - 1503

    ReplyDelete
  7. SantaFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:21 AM

    Hi SC

    You not planning on exiting today with your UVXY position?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:25 AM

      UVXY still can make a higher high this week. Good idea to start being cautious with it though. Doubt there is too much upside left short term.

      Delete
    2. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:26 AM

      I may give it a little time, but exit this week.

      Delete
    3. SantaFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:27 AM

      you plan on going to exit everything or just partially with UVXY?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:29 AM

      I suspect one day this week UVXY opens with a gap up high, then just slides and cools off for a week. We'll see.

      Delete
    5. SantaFebruary 26, 2013 at 10:25 AM

      That would for sure confuse the new bull out there today.

      Delete
  8. PayDayFebruary 26, 2013 at 7:59 AM

    I sold 10% uvxy at 12.49 and another 10% got stopped out at 11.85.

    I have XIV buy order at 16.50...

    ReplyDelete
  9. PayDayFebruary 26, 2013 at 8:02 AM

    Bougt 25% NUGT here at 6.00...

    ReplyDelete
  10. joedFebruary 26, 2013 at 8:20 AM

    EMINI


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaFebruary 26, 2013 at 8:52 AM

      Hi Joed

      Thanks for the updates. Always refreshing.


      Thanks!

      Delete
  11. indusequitiesFebruary 26, 2013 at 9:43 AM

    Low of 1485 respected so far. Low was 1485.01, lets see if it can make the high of 1503.00

    indusequitiesFebruary 26, 2013 at 6:44 AM
    SPX range 1485 - 1503

    ReplyDelete
  12. SantaFebruary 26, 2013 at 9:59 AM

    Hi SC

    You think we still will see a new low this week? Looks like as indusequities mentioned above, we bounced from there so far.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 26, 2013 at 10:04 AM

      It will be helpful to see tomorrow/Thurs to determine.

      Delete
    2. indusequitiesFebruary 26, 2013 at 10:33 AM

      For now look for a range of 1480.00 - 1503.00 for this week

      Delete
  13. SantaFebruary 26, 2013 at 12:42 PM

    less than 5 point from 1503, 18 point ish from 1480. If we are in this range, then more power to the downsize soon?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 26, 2013 at 12:47 PM

      Sold my last third of UVXY this morning. Thanks for the great call on UVXY SC. Hope you were able to benefit from the recent pullbacks or not.

      Delete
  14. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 7:31 AM

    Wow! Can I buy UVXY back below 9 again! Think we will see new highs in the markets by early next week!

    ReplyDelete
  15. indusequitiesFebruary 27, 2013 at 7:36 AM

    SPX 1500 is critical to see 1480. If we go above 1508 today, then 1480 might not happen.

    ReplyDelete
  16. SantaFebruary 27, 2013 at 7:38 AM

    Hi SC

    Are you still planning to exit your UVXY this week or hold it now till April?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  17. SCFebruary 27, 2013 at 7:41 AM

    I think we may retest 1490 SPX. Low is likely in place though.

    ReplyDelete
  18. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 8:15 AM

    i cut my position in half on spike
    will enter when spy hit last support just below 1520
    vix will be at 14.5 ish
    good luck to you too SC, im going to add more money in to even out my losses. patient is a virtue

    ReplyDelete
  19. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 9:40 AM

    Why is this board so quiet today? Hope you ALL are getting ready to load up on the UVXY again. Markets will make new highs next week, but UVXY will not make new lows. Next level 16-17 in April!

    ReplyDelete
  20. SantaFebruary 27, 2013 at 9:48 AM

    Hi SC

    now that we are above 1500 again, do you see that as a support and 1490 is now out of the question?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 27, 2013 at 9:58 AM

      The way this market is swinging 1490 is possible. Would not surprise me.

      Delete
  21. StockboomFebruary 27, 2013 at 9:54 AM

    all gain wiped out!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaFebruary 27, 2013 at 10:21 AM

      you in UVXY before and didnt take some profit?

      Delete
  22. PayDayFebruary 27, 2013 at 9:55 AM

    Repurchased UVXY @ 10.20 & 10.33 this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  23. mickFebruary 27, 2013 at 11:45 AM

    UVXY from 8.75 to 13+ and you did not sell any ??? Just curious why?

    ReplyDelete
  24. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 11:47 AM

    I did sell, at a cost average of 12.4. Looking to buy back very soon.

    ReplyDelete
  25. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 12:21 PM

    Joe do you see the market topping soon?


    ReplyDelete
  26. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 12:31 PM

    Couldn't resist, bought back a third below 10. Will add another third if lower tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  27. SCFebruary 27, 2013 at 12:34 PM

    1520 is just below the white trendline for SPX. Strong resistance. Probably dip to 1500 to 1505 soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaFebruary 27, 2013 at 12:39 PM

      wow look at all those bullish comments in CNBC, wonder where they were yesterday or the day before. Dang hot

      Delete
    2. SCFebruary 27, 2013 at 12:49 PM

      The headlines are always amusing. Where is the headline that mentions that the S&P is still struggling only 45 points above Sept. The market is only up 45 points from 5 and a half months ago (with QE). Very weak!

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 12:50 PM

      today has made a strong candle....i would wait for tmr

      Delete
    4. SCFebruary 27, 2013 at 12:54 PM

      Or how about that the S&P is still down from year 2000 and 2007.

      Delete
  28. UnknownFebruary 27, 2013 at 1:11 PM

    True, but how about S&P up more than 100% from 2009?

    ReplyDelete
  29. UnknownFebruary 28, 2013 at 5:38 AM

    good morning
    congrats on your calls SC - bang on - up to 1520. hopefully thats it & we now move down

    have a great day

    ReplyDelete
  30. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 6:20 AM

    Good morning,

    There is strong resistance at 1520 so should see a mild dip next. Things should calm down for the next while. No major moves. I think dip to 1505 and back up to 1520. Something like that.

    I have updates coming to explain further.

    ReplyDelete
  31. SantaFebruary 28, 2013 at 10:30 AM

    we just broke this strong resistance. Does that invalid your analysis at all with a dip?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 10:35 AM

      SPX just overshot the white trendline by 3 points. I think a dip is likely here. Let's see.

      Delete
  32. mickFebruary 28, 2013 at 10:52 AM

    SC explain to us how UVXY had a 40+% move to upside and you chose not to sell a share ? I thought your plan was to trade around position looks like you missed a great opportunity to cut your loss

    ReplyDelete
  33. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 11:00 AM

    Yes, normally I would be more actively trading. I've been busy lately, but will be more active in the future to capture market movement more efficiently. Obviously my large Cycle is very bearish and predicts much larger moves coming. The market is in a slow period by my model.

    This next update will show this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 11:06 AM

      The best trading period in the model will be coming over the next 2 months. So as the slow period is coming to an end in March, the action will pick up dramatically, and we're getting into a more exciting time frame. Larger, faster moves coming...

      I am looking forward to it!

      Delete
    2. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 11:14 AM

      Remember, my model predicted that recent pop in volatility, and that was just the first little blip in the model. Volatility is going to continue to expand dramatically in the months ahead according to the same model.

      Actually, volatility is entering an expanding period for years according to this model. The market has been in a period of decreasing volatility for many years, but that is coming to an end.

      Delete
    3. SantaFebruary 28, 2013 at 12:37 PM

      Hi SC

      When you say volatility here, you talking about market going up and down more frequent. Or you talking about VIX?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 12:50 PM

      Mainly, talking about the VIX. We're heading into a period of a faster moving market, with much larger moves ahead. The model is very bearish overall, but there will be bullish spots along the way too. Will always approach it one step at a time.

      Delete
    5. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 12:53 PM

      For now the turquoise line makes a decent target for SPX. Around 1510.

      Delete
    6. SantaFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:03 PM

      Hi SC

      So you going to wait till April then before you do any selling now?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    7. SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:08 PM

      I'm open to making moves if it makes sense. Though I think much better opportunities are coming.

      Delete
  34. mickFebruary 28, 2013 at 3:16 PM

    a great opportunity is when UVXY went from 9 to 13 in a couple days... its largest 2 day move since August of 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  35. PayDayFebruary 28, 2013 at 6:12 PM

    Actually a great opportunity in 2011 was TVIX 15.65 to 110 in 8 weeks!

    Be nice to see UVXY make such a move!

    ReplyDelete
  36. SantaMarch 1, 2013 at 6:39 AM

    Hi SC

    Are you exiting your UVXY position this morning?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 1, 2013 at 6:44 AM

      I'm considering that. May be the way to go.

      Delete
  37. UnknownMarch 1, 2013 at 6:46 AM

    I am already out at 12.3 on my third I bought back!

    ReplyDelete
  38. StockboomMarch 1, 2013 at 6:59 AM

    I think VIX is very well in place to go higher in next week, selling at this level, doesn't make sense.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  39. SCMarch 1, 2013 at 7:12 AM

    SPX may head back to 1520 then drop again next week.

    ReplyDelete
  40. SCMarch 1, 2013 at 7:14 AM

    We may be bouncing up/down in the 1495 to 1520 range for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  41. SCMarch 1, 2013 at 7:19 AM

    SPX made the dip I suggested yesterday.

    SCFebruary 28, 2013 at 6:20 AM

    "Good morning,

    There is strong resistance at 1520 so should see a mild dip next. Things should calm down for the next while. No major moves. I think dip to 1505 and back up to 1520. Something like that."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 1, 2013 at 7:21 AM

      So now let's see if that was support.

      Delete
    2. SantaMarch 1, 2013 at 7:27 AM

      Hi SC

      we hit 1520 ish and dip to 1505, then back up to 1520. It not much of a trend. Are you expecting something change after back up to 1520? like new high?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCMarch 1, 2013 at 7:32 AM

      I have an update coming to explain better, but ideally the market may bounce up down in this 1495 to 1520 range a few times, pop over 1520 briefly, then collapse to 1390.



      Delete
  42. UnknownMarch 1, 2013 at 8:34 AM

    on weekly chart, major support is at weekly's 200 ma 1250ish as time goes on

    we will see how everything plays out


    good work SC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCMarch 1, 2013 at 10:46 AM

      Yes, it's going to get interesting. Thank you.

      Delete
  43. SantaMarch 1, 2013 at 10:38 AM

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100511332 <---this is the signal to go short boys :)

    ReplyDelete

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