Next, it likely will be choppy and trend higher into April overall. The bounces should become larger as time progresses into April. VIX has been moving higher for over 3 weeks already.
30min Chart
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
UVXY - February to April Targets
The geometry reiterates that UVXY is at or near a low. It appears to be getting ready to pop initially over the pink trendline.
Next, it likely will be choppy and trend higher into April overall. The bounces should become larger as time progresses into April. VIX has been moving higher for over 3 weeks already.
30min Chart
Next, it likely will be choppy and trend higher into April overall. The bounces should become larger as time progresses into April. VIX has been moving higher for over 3 weeks already.
30min Chart
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I am confident that the market is moving in tune with the large Cycle in terms of price. However it has been a slow market.
ReplyDeleteThe large Cycle is most important to understand. Each move in the large Cycle always takes months.
With that said, the analysis would be much improved with HOW/WHEN each move in the large Cycle plays out.
So going forward I am going to present more short term charts, and also update the large Cycles as is plays out.
This is my plan for UVXY over the next few months. I feel there are several trades I can make during this time to gain a better position.
ReplyDeleteWhat would be your projected target on uvxy when Jan. 2 VIX gap is filled...which doesn't mean uvxy gap will fill, as we've seen in the past.
ReplyDeleteUVXY right now trading 20% less than spot vix! So when VIX fills its gap on the FIRST pass i'd expect UVXY to trade lower....if VIX bounces around the gap, then UVXY will quickly catch up and even start to exceed/outperform as backwardation sets in.
ReplyDeleteYes, that 16 to 18 gap is important on the VIX. I do think that will be filled in March or April.
ReplyDeletePerhaps that occurs with the $13.50 to $14's projected move for UVXY.
Technically UVXY looks poised to spike during March/April.
ReplyDeleteNot only do the Cycles for SPX look bearish, but UVXY is consolidating and coming within striking distance again of the 50 dma on the UVXY Daily chart. It tested the 50 dma in December, and this time it will break imo, and the 50 dma should then become support in my view.
Also, UVXY should spike once it breaks that top pink trendline. So the Cycles and technicals are lining nicely.
Strong reaction by UVXY this morning off the fork low. Good confirmation of a low in place now according to the geometry.
ReplyDeleteLooks to be heading up next to that first green target around the blue midfork.
SC, whch target is that? Hard to tell on the chart 11.50? Is it possible to put price pts. N the chart?
ReplyDeleteAround $11.70. Sorry I know it is a little small. I'll do some closer up views.
DeleteSome Trader Has Made A Very Big Bet That Something Very Bad Will Happen Within The Next 60 Days
ReplyDeleteRead more: http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-on-big-vix-bet-2013-2#ixzz2Kqkjyy7j
Thank you, interesting that April timing and the price level matches up well with my projection!
DeleteThe article mentions the 20 to 25 April VIX level. That is similar my projected target for UVXY.
DeleteAround $19.50 for UVXY is the April target. I have charts coming to show the S&P levels.
ReplyDeleteGenerally I think SPX bounces around in the 1490 to 1520 range for weeks next. 1450 is a level to watch once it breaks down.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteExpect UVXY to touch 9.25 as the low for this week.
ReplyDeleteThat large VIX position - tell me why it can not be a hedge for some whale with 200-300mil$ long market position???
ReplyDeleteYou only see one side of things, really?
It really does not matter whether hedging or speculating. The trade was placed with the potential for a rising VIX into April.
DeleteIf i decide to wear a helmet today because i think that i might fall and hit my head. Does it increase probability of me falling? .. or others falling as well?
DeleteThese huge put bets and VIX bets happen all the time, i find it interesting what and WHEN media decides to spread around. most interesting is why?
I don't think that analogy works. A helmet does not cost anything. This trade was significant.
DeleteI agree though that should not place too much weight on it anyways. It is still interesting though.
Proper question should be (which noone seems to be asking) - what size long equities portfolio requires this 11mil vix position as a hedge. I figure 1-3% of the portfolio?
ReplyDeleteFinancials are breaking out higher, with low interest rates money are pouring back into stocks for higher yields. I see SC, you have been waiting for a crash since 2011, whats another few months, year, right?
You are married to your position and opinion about market.
I was very bullish markets during Nov, Dec, and part of January "sharp rally phase".
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteI am curious now:
SCFebruary 13, 2013 at 6:30 AM
This is my plan for UVXY over the next few months. I feel there are several trades I can make during this time to gain a better position.
With the above being said, assuming you talking about your UVXY position and not the SPX put position. How are you planning on doing this? consider your position should be around at least 14.50+ish.
According to your chart: The first pop is 11.5 ish, then second pop is 14.00ish, then the final pop to 19.5 ish. I cant see you getting out and go back in with a better position unless you take a hit during the first two pop. Or is that your plan for the first two pop, to take a hit and wait for it to come down again to get in a better position for that final pop in your roadmap?
Thanks!
"Or is that your plan for the first two pop, to take a hit and wait for it to come down again to get in a better position for that final pop in your roadmap?"
DeleteAlthough I could just sit until March/April, I think there will be several trades along the way. Yes, that is what I plan to do. I'll trade out and back in lower on the pops, while mainly holding into April.
As we sit here & watch the decaying beast fall everyday....It might be fun to have a little bet on the lowest price before we see a good 20-30% bounce?
ReplyDeleteWould be nice for all of us to throw in a small bet for some beer money but unless SC can accept paypal that might be difficult.
SC - you have first call on the price.
$9.35.
DeleteGood call SC....I will go for 8.95
ReplyDeleteJust for fun of course - anybody's guess...
DeleteAbsolutely! Gotta have some fun with it otherwise it will eat you all up & spit you out for breakfast...
ReplyDeleteIf TZA does not close above 10.92 by today's close, apply manual stop loss and reenter next week after further chart review. Entry was 10.52, so might be able to break even if 10.92 close does not happen by today's close.
ReplyDeleteUVXY has no history to define the bottom of "Slope Of Hope"
indusequitiesFebruary 12, 2013 at 10:06 AM
Bought TZA @ 10.52. Expecting this to close above 10.92 by the end of this week.. No confirmation, but bottom fishing from a weekly pattern completion.
Reply
SC, are you saying we are in july 2011 right now?
ReplyDeleteNo, the next move in the large cycle is a decline for SPX to 1390 area. The Cycle suggests this move would take months to play out. Nothing in common with 2011 at all.
ReplyDeleteWhat i mean is early july when we saw quick dip to 1300 level then back up to 1350 then water fall. just possibility.
ReplyDeleteWhat im seeing is in agreement with a decent size drop in the SnP and hopefully sooner than later.
Gold - does it get fear trade bid finally? or continues major downtrend. No reversal yet.
Ok - I see. I think SPX can dip to 1450 rebound then plunge to 1390. That is what the Cycle suggests. All of this could take months. We'll see. Lately the market has sure been slow, but also seems the momentum is waning.
DeleteGoing into April looks bearish imo.
Interesting that Crude is down a fair bit today. It has often been a leading indicator at turning points.
ReplyDeleteFOMC should get the ball rolling
ReplyDeleteSC please stick to a specific time frame or at least within a range. Feb, became March, then it became April.
ReplyDeleteNow it's July or "several months"
So if and when the market does dip, you will never be wrong since you have covered all of the months on the calendar.
I was bullish for Nov, Dec, and part of Jan due to my large Cycle. The Cycle suggests that the rest of Feb, March and into April look bearish. I take it one phase at a time.
ReplyDelete