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Monday, February 18, 2013

$SPX - Significant Dip Next

SPX has been churning sideways for weeks.  Momentum has deteriorated, therefore, SPX is likely ready for a more significant dip next in the short term.  Equal timing boxes have been used to estimate timing to the next short term low and high.

The bigger picture large Cycle suggests that the market is at an important peak, and the outlook is bearish overall for months into April. 

60min Chart















UVXY is likely to pop initially over the pink trendline. 

It is anticipated to be choppy and move much higher into April overall.  The bounces should become larger as time progresses into April. 

15min Chart

 

138 comments:

  1. nice chart, believable as well. I say that because too many called for a correction since 2nd week of Jan, you can find them all on the garbage heap.
    Can you post a chart of the Dow in correlation to your projected downturn please?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Similar move for the Dow. The Dow should dip to near the Feb 4th low next.

      Delete
  2. This reminds me of your "Scary dip" post on January 17th.. you can drag this out for months and eventually you will be right.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. is SIGNIFICANT DIP gonna be scarier than SCARY DIP?

      Delete
  3. The red price target for SPX was outlined in December and was a good price estimate for the rally into January. However, while it was certainly strong early Jan, it was a slower grind up for much of January to finally test the upper red price target. It has been a slow process.

    Since the market is moving slowly, I plan to outline short term charts going forward to better capture these movements. I think that will be an improvement.

    ReplyDelete
  4. how long would it take for uvxy to hit $20 again?
    my hvu is locked at avg of $4.7, god damit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks promising into April imo.

      Delete
  5. All time low in UVXY pre market @9.34

    ReplyDelete
  6. Serious question is there any price where you sell UVXY and re-evaluate. The losses you are taking are getting very serious.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Starting buying UVXY now...9.25.

    Hoping to average down to around 8.5ish but who knows....I still think mkt goes to 1550 so it could well happen.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Market looks very overextended here. VIX is actually up today!

    ReplyDelete
  9. UVXY is based on VIX futures ...spot vix is not related to UVXY ...vix futures are lower

    ReplyDelete
  10. It just simply boils down to whether I am confident on the large Cycle continuing to play out. It has been great in calling the turns for years already. Everything I see is still consistent with this Cycle continuing.

    I have shown my plan for UVXY into April.

    ReplyDelete
  11. VIX is down today !

    Why don't you buy more SC ? Only makes makes sense if your a believer in the charts

    ReplyDelete
  12. My point was that a green VIX is often a warning on a day that SPX is also green.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Panic selling coming through in UVXY...hopefully one more big 10%++ down day & we are done short term!

    ReplyDelete
  14. SC, are you bearish on sp500 for all the year 2013. Do you think that the market will close DOWN or FLAT in 2013 ? What about 2014 ? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have broken my large Cycle down into distinct phases. My preference is to look at each phase, one at a time. The next phase is bearish for months.

      Ultimately the large Cycle is very bearish, but best to approach it one step at a time.

      Delete
  15. UVXY tracks vix futures nothing more, it does not have panic selling as vix futures go lower it moves lower

    ReplyDelete
  16. I bought some HVU at 2.52 (UVXY at around 9.10ish)

    I'm looking for 1525 resistance on SP 500 to hold.

    If not could be more pain for VIX long holders.

    good luck to all

    ReplyDelete
  17. vix is actually up and uvxy is down.......hope i will get my money back........

    ReplyDelete
  18. UVXY ok I am taking a shot bought UVXY at 9.08 ... STOP AT $8.99 .. MOST I will lose is 10 cents

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That depends if you hold it overnight.

      Delete
  19. the only way I would hold is if I was way the green on it... which looks unlikely at this time, if its over 9.50 I will hold otherwise I am out

    ReplyDelete
  20. Well that was short lived .. stopped out

    ReplyDelete
  21. Wow this market is just killing the bears, must be a hopeless feeling to be sitting on short positions.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SC no offense but there is not 100% reliability in any system, at what point to cut losses and re-evaluate your stance, at this point your down over 40% on uvxy and its heading lower as a type this. I do not want anyone to bust out

    ReplyDelete
  23. XIV is doing awesome! I set my stop at 22 over a week ago and still not filled...

    This is crazy! I never thought XIV would hit 20 let alone 24! wow!

    ReplyDelete
  24. XIV stop @ 22.75 now... Bumping up against channel reststance at 24...could retest channel support at 23 (around $10 uvxy)

    ReplyDelete
  25. Not getting greedy ere. Sold 1/2 XIV @ 24.05.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Out. Uvxy 8.84... Wont touch this until clear move over 9.10

    ReplyDelete
  27. Impossible to bottoM pick this UVXY crap. VIX down 1% and UVXY down 9%. I know UVXY doesnt trak VIX but contango is killing this thing.

    SC needs to move his UVXY target from 19 to 16, i think. That's a 100% move and only if VIX hits 20.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Stops must be used when trading... the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. That being said, SC if you have such a strong conviction on UVXY why not load up now, cost average down and give yourself a chance to break even.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Wow...lovely panic selling in the decaying beast! Perhaps we will see 7 afterall!!

    Averaging down here every 30cents....my sell target is 10.5-11 when it turns. Anything past that is just wishful thinking.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I have to confess.

    I have been reading this blog -- every article, every comment -- for a little over a year now.

    I've seen SC make some good calls, and I've seen him make some bad calls. My suspicion is that he is trading with less money than some of you, and he has conviction, which helps him see himself through tough times.

    I freak out all the time myself. I am not a great trader by any means, but I've taken enough lickings to learn a few lessons.

    Lesson 1: Stay small.
    Lesson 2: Add slowly.
    Lesson 3: Always use stops.

    And now I have to confess.

    After not investing in UVXY since GETTING MY ASS HANDLED LAST YEAR, I put in a "fishing order" for UVXY at $8.75 today.

    I confess I bought this scam of an ETF.

    Call it hubris.

    Call it crazy.

    I want my vindication GOD DAMNIT, and I sure hope you get yours SC :].

    PS: Regardless of my "Desires", I'll set a stop below $8.00 because one look at the daily chart for the last year and I ask myself -- WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING INVESTING IN UVXY.

    Sorry for the ramble, but I had to confess...

    ReplyDelete
  31. I have to confess...

    One look at the daily chart of UVXY makes me wonder what the F@*K I am doing investing in this scam, but I started a position at $8.75.

    SC, I hope you get your vindication, but it's not looking so good lately my friend.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Started a position at $8.75.

    Stay small, add slowly, and always use a stop.

    This vehicle is toxic (TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAILY CHART AND TELL ME IF THIS WERE ANY OTHER ASSET WOULD YOU BUY IT???).

    This isn't an asset, it's a scam. But you can still make money, as long as you don't give them all of yours first.

    PS: Dude, I might be taking advantage of recent medicinal laws in Colorado, but is the verification system EXTREMELY HARD or what?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi everyone,

    According to my analysis, SP500 will start to decline from February 28,2013.
    Save the date

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is not helpful unless you tell us how you came up with that date.

      Delete
  34. UVXY still looks great, and again, this is in terms of the bigger picture. UVXY did come down a little over $1 during the last month. All that has happened is that VIX made a double bottom with January. The fact VIX is holding so well is indicative of a market that is peaking. VIX agrees with my large Cycle.

    I think people will be very surprised by how high UVXY reaches over the next couple months.

    ReplyDelete
  35. We are almost there.. Just 1 more dollar down, we will reach 7.60. Not necessary it has to complete the pattern bottom, but one can take position in these range with a stop loss below 7.30 area. Position management accordingly for a stop loss below 7.30. Immediate target 10.80..



    indusequitiesFebruary 11, 2013 at 7:29 PM
    No offence to anyone's analysis here. There is no confirmation of UVXY bottoming yet. There could be a capitulation sell off also which could take UVXY to near 7.60 levels which will set the true reversal confirmation.

    If UVXY has to be out of this capitulation sell off scenario, UVXY has to close above 12.95. Don't want to scare anyone here, but when capitulation sell off happens, you need to stay calm and get more for a nice ride to the upside. The key is not to have any margin money used and pick more when the panic sell of happens.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not likely for UVXY to go lower imo, but I do agree that $11 area is about right for the first little pop. I think we see that level next week.

      The short term cycles that I use look particularly negative for SPX Mon/Tues. SPX can dip 25 points or so.

      Delete
    2. I still see 8.50 visit in today's chart itself. Considering the overall trend, we cannot overrule that scenario. If UVXY close above 9.50 level today, I might agree that the bottom is in place for short term. Till that time its still the Slope of Hope..

      Delete
  36. Day traders 1st level resistance at 9.44

    ReplyDelete
  37. Back in this morning UVXY @8.84...

    Intersting to read last night that out of 6000 trading days VIX close under 10 only NiNE times! Under 13 only 2% of trading days... So pretty good odds of some bounce...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The rally for SPX from the Nov low looks impressive BUT zoom out and the gain from Sept looks weak.

      There no fear, and yet really SPX has advanced little since the Sept high. It has taken 5 months since Sept to gain from 1475 to 1530. 55 points. 11 points a month. Weak.

      These are the mind games that the market plays. No fear at the peaks.

      Delete
  38. SC you owe me a beer...the decaying beast reached my target...:)

    ReplyDelete
  39. Between Nov. 6 and Nov.15 2012 the S&P dropped 75 points [1428 -1353].
    Between Nov. 6 and Nov.15 2012 UVXY rose from 27 to 30 before quickly dropping to 19.78 on Nov. 26.

    Sometimes with UVXY even when you are right in a big way you lose.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is true, the VIX never did spike in Nov when S&P dropped. However, in Decmember the VIX did spike with S&P dipping much less than Nov.

      So it works boths ways.

      Delete
  40. Monday/Tues should be the weakest days for SPX since I have negative cycles hitting on those days. Also could see a short term low for SPX (high for UVXY) around those dates.

    Same plan as the charts show above.

    ReplyDelete
  41. UVXY found support at the orange line on the chart. Strong reaction there.

    ReplyDelete
  42. UVXY is close to the dark blue line $10.20. Probably hit some resistance there and cool off for a while, but once it breaks above that pink line in a few days it can fly early next week imo.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Powerful move for VIX today off the double bottom. This is the start of a large months long move higher for VIX imo.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 20, 2013 at 6:13 AM

      "UVXY still looks great, and again, this is in terms of the bigger picture. UVXY did come down a little over $1 during the last month. All that has happened is that VIX made a double bottom with January. The fact VIX is holding so well is indicative of a market that is peaking. VIX agrees with my large Cycle.

      I think people will be very surprised by how high UVXY reaches over the next couple months."

      Delete
  44. Pink line is around $10.55 for UVXY at the close today.

    ReplyDelete
  45. It was a strong and interesting close. But this week UVXY has to close above 10.90 to continue this momentum next week.

    ReplyDelete
  46. hi SC
    are you planning on selling @ about 11.6 & than reloading @ 9.xx?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, even a little higher. $11's may be a little conservative. Targets no more than $12.50 on this first pop. I'll be fine tuning that.

      Then will look to reload $9's once it cools. I am expecting chop and some really nice trading next few months. Finally, there is better, faster movement in the market!

      Delete
  47. So you are going to take a 20-25% loss on your UVXY trade ?

    so much for "being confident" in your cycles.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It has nothing to do with confidence in my Cycles. I could sit with my current positions and make profits into April.

      The large Cycle is negative into April. I do think it will be choppy and so will make a few trades along the way. I'll make more money if I make a few key trades along the way imo.

      Delete
  48. Consolidate likely today, tomorrow, then plunge again Mon/Tues for SPX. I have negative cycles for SPX Mon/Tues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Any thoughts on gold here?

      Usually gold leads the broader market in plunges. Do you think it will continue to plunge next week or finally find a "fear bid".

      -Bick

      Delete
    2. Gold may go lower first, but I think it can do well April, and May.

      Delete
  49. UVXY testing the pink trendline at $10.55. This may be a natural spot to take a breather.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      You plan on selling then during this breather?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. No I'm holding for next week, but expect it can retrace and take a breather here.

      Delete
    3. Could see $12 to $12.50 max next week.

      Delete
  50. Now UVXY at the turquoise line at $10.85.

    ReplyDelete
  51. SC, as the cycle plays out how long do you estimate the quiet period? Into summer or fall? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a great question. The challenge that I am finding is that each phase in the large Cycle can vary in time. There are certain events that should happen, but the market moves slow at times. Still, it is possible to put some rough timing on it.

      This is why I have approached it one phase at a time, rather than looking out far.

      Let's wait until next week and see how things shape up, then can review the large Cycle timing.

      Delete
  52. So SC you are willing to sell UVXY and take a 25% on the books ??

    P

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, we will see how things unfold next week. If I see the opportunity to sell at $12.50 and reload in the $9 to $10 range then I may just do that.

      Delete
    2. I could hold until April and do well imo, but I will take advantage of opportunities to trade.

      Delete
  53. Fair enough,

    Just make sure you update your "Trades" section.

    Nothing more credible than cold hard facts

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  54. SC is daMan!!! UVXY baby!!! Just book a third, my man. Will unload the other third tomorrow. UVXY is on an uptrend now!!! You were just 40% early, but it's ok. You will make a triple at 45!

    ReplyDelete
  55. Let's see how long SC will let me post. Always use stops SC. This can save your a$$. UVXY baby!!!

    ReplyDelete
  56. Hey SC, how much are you up on your positions so far in 2013? I am up 27% in UVXY within two days!!! You think we can hit 20 by April?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Gartman:

    "When the music stops,everybody dashes to find a seat and many people get left behind. Now you have a lot of people scrambling to find a seat," he said. "It is always astonishing to me, after decades in the business, to understand how the psychology can change so quickly — it almost leaves you gasping for air."

    ReplyDelete
  58. I want to be short for Mon/Tues.

    ReplyDelete
  59. hi SC,
    do you think a logical turn would be the gap fill on the VIX @ $18 by next week?
    Or are you fairly confident UVXY will not go over 12.5 on this move?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX started to test that gap today around 16. I think Mon/Tues could be weak again for the markets so that gap for VIX may well fill. Even then I doubt UVXY could go over that level on this first pop.

      Delete
  60. Sold my UVXY....bought at average 9.39 in the end.

    MKT should bottom early next week then shoot up destroying all the bears.

    ReplyDelete
  61. UVXY day traders entry @ 9.65, Stop loss @ 9.50, potential target 10.50 (10% range)

    ReplyDelete
  62. Bought HVU at 2.52 sold at 2.92 yesterday.

    That's a 15% gain in 3 days.

    That's how you trade VIX related ETF's

    ReplyDelete
  63. VIX took out the entire 2 months January and February trading range on Wed alone. That strength is going to last.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Market is retracing today as I suggested yesterday, but I think Mon/Tues could be ugly again. Therefore, I'll be interested in covering shorts around next Wed. Reshorting 1st week of March.

    This is just starting imo. VIX likely to trend up into especially April by my work.

    ReplyDelete
  65. SC, you still expecting 12's for UVXY next week or is 11.30 all we get?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can still pop more Mon to Wed imo.

      Delete
  66. SC, how ugly do you see next Mon/Tues? 10 - 15 SPX points?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1490 is a line in the sand. Break that and support is around 1450. We'll have to wait and see if the selloff follows through Mon/Tues.

      Regardless of the short term, more importantly the market looks broken and heading lower into March and April.

      Delete
  67. Sequester hysteria will be out in full force next week...that combined with threats of govt shut down should fuel another VIX pop.

    ReplyDelete
  68. My two cents to the board. I have been following SC for a while. Sometimes he made great call, sometime just flat horrible. Remember in this market, what break your back are those bad calls, and especially you do not use stop lost. I lost shirt last year on UVXY, this year out of gate. After my own due diligence and SC’s recommendation, I dared to try this again around 14s. Rest you know, another shirt lost event. Anyway, we are all responsible for our own action. No blame to everyone. Buying UVXY and hoping for POP is dangerous game. Somehow I traded myself out of the way long and short this, and lesson learned in big way. Just for rest folks on board, VIX today is about to give another “buy” signal (in respect to equity). For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events:
    1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) - Done
    2. A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal – About to happen
    3. A higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.
    All I am saying is to be careful, if VIX complete step 3 as a buy signal, we might have new high in sight. I know you all think market must go down for so many shit happening in the world, but it can also go up for all the shit market cares. Remember, until bears give up, MM will not give them any break.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for that info on the VIX signal. It is evidence that the market is at an important inflection point in time now.

      Delete
  69. UVXY churning around the pink line which at the close today will be $10.20.

    ReplyDelete
  70. What is that line in the sand...check the blog link under my handler.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Today looked very negative in my short term cycles for SPX as mentioned last week. Strong open for SPX but sure enough failed.

    ReplyDelete
  72. There probably is short term support at 1490. Let's see if that level is tested this week. Then, once that breaks, 1450 is the next support imo. In my model should see that tested in March.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      you plan to exit at 1490 ish with your UVXY position?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Yes, I would. Then would look to reload again.

      Everything jerking around today, but importantly for UVXY it is back above the pink line - which is around $10 today.

      Delete
  73. Hi SC, do you still a local low for SPX cycle tomorrow night ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The short term cycles look quite negative for today and tomorrow for SPX. Let's see how it shakes out next. May not see a low until later this week.

      Delete
    2. Wednesday may be the best candidate for a low this week. Let's see if it can drop to 1490.

      Delete
    3. Good call on the drop today.

      Only way we see 1490 is if lows of 1495 give way.

      (I'm long SP at these levels)

      Delete
    4. Thank you. Tricky day, but I was pleased that the negative cycle played out. I'll stick with the bears for a couple more days.

      Delete
  74. For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events:
    1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) - Done
    2. A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal – About to happen
    3. A higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.

    believe or not, we might have equity sell signal confirm today.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Tricky day, but the market did confirm the negative cycle and follow through with a decline. I like that 1490 target for this week but also believe there is support at that level.

    So my plan is to drop to 1490 then bounce to 1520. Then, larger drop in March to 1450.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      That less than 100 point of drop. from 1520 to 1450. Is that it for March?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Ultimately during this phase 1380 to 1390 is the main target in coming months. Doubt lower than 1450 in March though, and the Cycle suggests a bounce there.

      Just best to take things one step at a time. Short term support is 1490 imo.

      Delete
    3. Hi SC

      no one is saying shit here, interesting...where is unknown LOL, so I will be the first.

      Excellent job on your call this time. And hope more to come


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. The large Cycle suggests trend down for months next to 1380 to 1390, but there will be numerous bounces.

      Delete
    5. I'll outline the levels of short term support and resistance along the way down with the charts.

      Delete
    6. Thank you. Although it has been a slow start, I think I have a good plan.

      Delete
    7. I sold another third before the close. Will sell the last third tomorrow. Good job SC! Way to call it. You might have a chance to sell for breakeven tomorrow.

      Delete
  76. VIX up 26% today, filled the gap at 18.

    ReplyDelete
  77. UVXY traded right up into the green target zone, right on time. I'm going to give it a few more days though. I think it can overshoot.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Before we congratulate anyone lets review SC has been short S&P at 1472 since January 10th. Long UVXY at 14.50, not only are they both significant losers the bigger problem is because he did not use stops he has been unable to trade for 8 weeks, when great opportunities presented themselves.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The right words... definitely that is the wrong way to trade.
      Is it so difficult to wait for a price confirmation/signal??
      My cycle says... very nice but wait for the signal.
      Eventually my cycle will play out... when in two months???
      Come on SC be serious.

      Delete
  79. SC, where do you see VIX up 26%? VIX futures are hardly up 10%...why it is huge gap?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The cash VIX is up 27% right now.

      Delete
    2. The VIX futures are different of course. They usually lag behind then catch up later. I think the futures are likely to go higher for a few days.

      Delete
  80. Hi SC

    you plan to sell your UVXY today at all? such huge move, normally we get pullback, no?


    thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it might settle back a little, but then shoot up again. We might just see $13's this week.

      I'm sitting sight.

      Delete
  81. SC when you mean 1490 low, do you mean ES_F ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1490 SPX. Not too much lower short term.

      Delete
    2. Nice work SC, a bounce at 1490 would help in timing the next moves. Downside slowly picking up momentum.

      Thanks

      Delete
  82. Well UVXY at $12.50 which was the level I had mentioned last week. I think it may settle from here somewhat, but then there is a shot of $13.30 to $13.65 this week. That is about the maximum I could see short term.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Well SC now I think you are on to something and I am in the bearish camp.

    1495 failed
    1490 failed

    No uptick in the close of SP 500 today....Crude got slaughtered as well, Gold rallied.

    I bought HVU today at the close at 3.52 (High today)

    I still think VIX goes higher this week....On all technical levels things were bad today...

    Good luck to all

    ReplyDelete
  84. I suspect the market may see a small bounce tomorrow, then hit a low Wed/Thurs.

    Will have updates later.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Keep in mind when the VIX spikes like this, the low is usually not too much lower for SPX. I'm just talking short term levels.

    ReplyDelete
  86. I see VIX future go till 18.50's before any pull back

    ReplyDelete
  87. Shame your trade didn't work out SC, hope you get out for no loss later on in the week.

    Personally I think this is a wave 4, new highs on the index will be seen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I could simply hold my positions into April and do well imo, but I will probably exit soon and reload short at a better level. So at this point I'm just fine tuning an entry to short according to my large Cycle.

      Delete
  88. HI SC. Looks like we both erred in our trades, me for TZA and you for UVXY. I have updated charts posted now at timethetrade.blogspot.ca

    Feb 8th I had charts posted suggesting that 1530 was max pain, and it hit 1530.94. I also had 930 Max Pain on the RUT and it hit 932, so pretty darn close. I was wrong though on my timing though I did have a low between Feb 25 & Mar 5 which I stated early January.

    I am in cash at the moment, and down 5% in 2013 so far, with today providing a decent recovery.

    I am contemplating shorting Natural Gas but may wait to see if the SPX can manage another surge to 1515...that would be another good shorting opportunity, perhaps Bernake provides this tomorrow along with good data?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am confident that the large Cycle is continuing, but I have recognized since January that it is happening slowly. This is fine, but gives me a reason to do some tweaking to improve my strategy.

      My big picture plan remains the same.

      Delete