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Sunday, February 10, 2013

$SPX - February to April Cycle Projection

The Deja Vu Cycle specifically predicted the surge up in January.  The next major move in the Deja Vu Cycle in the coming months is a plunge to test the red trendline and probably overshoot it. 

The following estimated projection for the next several months is based on the Cycle below.

The Deja Vu Cycle clearly shows a bear market ahead with initial measured target at approximately 1025 SPX. As well, the Cycle suggests lower lows after that target is reached.  

2hour Chart















A detailed view of the topping process in the Deja Vu Cycle is shown below.  SPX is likely near point C in the Deja Vu Cycle.

The Cycle suggests that the topping process will be characterized by weeks of sideways and choppy trading with a scary dip down to point P as shown on the chart below.
















Larger view of the Deja Vu Cycle:

Daily Chart
 
Current Deja Vu Cycle for SPY:

Weekly Chart







64 comments:

  1. time will tell
    as im still holding on my $4 hvu

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This Cycle is quite negative over the next couple months. It can play out similarly to this, but it is not realistic to expect a mirror image to the Cycle either.

      As well, the Cycle suggests a decent dip for SPX late Feb, and I may consider taking profits at that time to reshort again soon afterwards.

      Delete
  2. http://www.triwealth.com/subscribers/newsletters/greedometer-newsletter-february-7-2013-2/

    Greedometer Reading 7300...highest since Jan...

    ReplyDelete
  3. SC, I know you are long at $14.40 but will you add to your position at some point or just hold at this price?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I think there will likely be a decent dip for SPX into late Feb, and I'll probably unload then, to reload soon afterwards.

      Delete
  4. So what price do you expect to unload your UVXY at in late Feb?

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    Replies
    1. We'll see. Perhaps that may be about $16 to $17.

      Delete
    2. It's LATE FEB now? are we playing the pushing the time frame game again?

      Delete
  5. CNBC announcing a major market top for Feb.8 2013 in total agreement with SC's Deja Vu cycle top.

    You can't get it any clearer than that can you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The top call is from Peter Eliades, a cycle timer, not CNBC!

      Delete
    2. Ok, I didn't know you pay careful attention to the guests on CNBC.

      Delete
  6. Looks like UVXY makes another new low today...

    "in the coming months" SC are you really pushing out your wild predictions again? this is a pattern, make a prediction and when its wrong just push it out further and further.

    traders are never 100% right, you have been dead wrong on this, you have been calling for a correction from S&P 1472

    ReplyDelete
  7. I was expecting the market to rally faster up to the red target area in early Jan. It was a little slower, and a grind, to rally up to that red target which is fine.

    I have been saying consistently that this top would take weeks to play out.

    Jan 26th:

    "A major cycle peak for SPX is near according to the Deja Vu Cycle. The topping process will likely be characterized by weeks of sideways and choppy trading with a scary dip in the middle."

    ReplyDelete
  8. Every swing in this large Cycle takes months. It has always been this way. The Gradual Decline phase was 2 months. The Sharp Rally phase started in mid Nov.

    The drop to the red trendline has been estimated to take about 2 months.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Placed buy order for UVXY @ 10:30. Today's target 10:89 for day traders.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi everyone, here is a like I would like to share with all of us. It is a great insight to understanding leveraged ETF such UVXY that a lot of investors seem not to appreciate.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1171401-how-to-become-a-millionaire-without-really-trying?source=yahoo

    ReplyDelete
  11. UVXY 10.18 now....whoops!!! Another new low....and the mkt is down 20 points.

    Wait till the mkt rallies onto 1540-50...then we can buy UVXY (with a stop of course!)

    ReplyDelete
  12. "Thank you. I think UVXY should pop next to $13.50 to $14 to start with next few days."

    SC, is UVXY still in an uptrend?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Phil, insteadof bashing UVXY, why not buy XIV with both fists...you can make somw money that way instead of complaining..

    ReplyDelete
  14. Not complaining Pay Day...just pointing out the fact that to hold the decaying UVXY doesn't make any sense at all for 99% of the people here.

    You have your way of hedging, that's wonderful...hope you make good money out of it.

    I don't hedge, but to buy at 14.50, hold till 10 (or 9) then sell hopefully at 16 makes no sense at all to me.

    Keep emotion out of this....lets just stick to the facts..:)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Phil,

      I know some of the best traders who are holding this from 40.00. It happens in a market like this. Either you should be an active day trader or a swing trader who can manage the position actively to play with these kind of dangerous ETFs. I play both side. Have a core position of VIXY as my swing trade position and then I day trade UVXY to offset the limited decay in VIXY. My average price of VIXY is @ 13.00 and looking to double in a years time. I'm sure of 100% profit, if not this year it will be next year. Bottom line is I'll come out 100% or more profit on that position while I enjoy day trading UVXY.

      Delete
    2. Exactly. Much of the debate here seems to revolve around what is better swing or daytrading.

      Delete
    3. I would say the debate is more to do with should one hold a loss or have good management strategies in place? Perhaps the idea of a stop would be good SC? (going forward of course)

      I'm just pleased I'm not one of the 'best traders' holding this from 40!

      I will however be prepared to have a go once the VIX hits 12.20....with a stop of course.

      Delete
  15. UVXY still has not made a lower low in 2 and a half weeks. That is during a time when SPX made higher highs. My April target is around $25 for UVXY with SPX testing the red trendline. That is mainly what I am targeting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX definitely still in a uptrend for the last 3 weeks.

      Delete
  16. This is an interesting chart from Larry Williams. It shows how the market has moved in the first year or a presidents second term. Notice the sideways action that appears in Feb before breaking out. http://screencast.com/t/iBG1SrQav

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  17. SC you maybe right about not making lower low's , but can you really take that as a positive when you are down over 30% ?

    At what point does Feb, turn into March, then into April ...and who knows how long this will go on.

    I'm glad you are posting trades that it will bring credibility if UVXY does spike like you and your cycles say it will.

    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  18. SC, will you hold your position until April or close your trade before April ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Cycle suggests a significant dip for SPX late Feb. I may look to close the trade on that dip and reopen it again soon afterwards - only to gain a better entry.

      Otherwise I do plan to hold.

      Delete
  19. "VIX definitely still in a uptrend for the last 3 weeks."

    Uptrend or consolidation? So far your track record is not impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Wait and see. Certainly an uptrend by definition.

    ReplyDelete
  21. What is your definition of a uptrend ?? its making lower highs and lower lows .. its 20 cents from ALLTIME LOW that is NOT an uptrend... seriously are you just messing with people on this blog ..your not really serious are you ??

    UPTREND
    Describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is upward. A formal uptrend is when each successive peak and trough is higher than the ones found earlier in the trend.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The answer is yes. If uvxy take out 10, we are still in an early uptrend because we made higher highs the past few weeks. Just because we made a new 52 week low, does not change the picture. We are obviously in an uptrend. SC cycle has been calling every turn, so do not go against it.

      Delete
  22. UVXY looks weak today.. Holding on to my 10:30 entry and decide in next hour

    ReplyDelete
  23. Not sure what the heck is peoples problem with SC and his blog. This is FREE advice so take it or leave it.

    I take it for what its worth and appreciate reading for my own use...but at least it is free and not charging people $50 per month like that other site (changeintrend) where they got it dead wrong for 2 months straight and then switch to some "alternate" timeline to show they were "right" all along and making money off poor ignorant saps!

    Dont like SC calls? Make your own blog and post the calls. That would take more effort and be more useful than arm chair quarterbacks around here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed, the free analysis is appreciated, SC.

      Delete
    2. Isn't that the beauty of the comments section ... varied opinions, alternate ways of viewing trading. How else does anyone learn?

      I, for one, welcome any opinions that disagree with mine because I am always looking for blind spots in my viewpoints.

      Delete
    3. Hi Steven

      what your opinion now with the market? we going to plunge or rocket to the moon?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. I don't have a clue. We are in an uptrend so I would think go with that until it is violated.

      Right now I am short gold miners. They are in a downtrend and I am thinking that will continue ... until it doesn't ... then I'll get out... hopefully with some profit left.

      Delete
    5. PayDay

      Dead wrong? Are you sure?

      Check out the historical posted "actual" trades section on the changeintrend site.

      Anthony

      Delete
    6. CIT was wrong...dead wrong all thru Nov and Dec...right up until the 21st where it switched to Pay 4 site....

      If you will recall receiving similar daily harassment Anthony for the market zigging when it should have been zagging...

      Even more confusing was when ZZ was calling for more upside just as you were calling for a top....so I guess if you have 3 people calling for different outcones, chances are one is sure to get the right call.

      Delete
  24. Agreed. NUGT looks ready to break down here. iF 7.50 violated watch out.... dUST could make play for $6

    ReplyDelete
  25. Also, PM weakness is foreboding for stockmarket....not good sign....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When I do a comparative chart of GDX with SPX I can see no correlation. I don't see weakness in PM's forewarning weakness for S&P.

      I used to try to buy in at the bottom or short at the top. Most people find that instinctive and natural. Trend following is doing the opposite. It is counter to every instinctive feeling. No one wants to buy when things are already up ... or sell when they are already down.


      Yet if you are a trend follower that is what you have to do.

      Delete
  26. This is a beautiful setup for UVXY. Trend up for weeks next. Everything I use is in alignment for it here. The Cycles, charts, geometry looks fantastic, VIX has already been trending up for 3 weeks etc...

    Great!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If there is any downside at all it will be almost nothing imo!

      Delete
    2. Boy SC, I've heard that many a time with this thing...

      Delete
  27. Vix is NOT trending up last 3 weeks ..please speak to the facts

    ReplyDelete
  28. No offence to anyone's analysis here. There is no confirmation of UVXY bottoming yet. There could be a capitulation sell off also which could take UVXY to near 7.60 levels which will set the true reversal confirmation.

    If UVXY has to be out of this capitulation sell off scenario, UVXY has to close above 12.95. Don't want to scare anyone here, but when capitulation sell off happens, you need to stay calm and get more for a nice ride to the upside. The key is not to have any margin money used and pick more when the panic sell of happens.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In my view capitulation has already occurred for UVXY. The drop from $13 to $10 was the capitulation.

      Therefore UVXY can trend up for weeks next.

      Delete
    2. Very possible. Thats one reason it has to close above 12.95 to confirm the reversal.

      Delete
  29. Look at TLT (us treasuries) and you will see it is testing critical support...this cannot be breached so what event causes massive INFLUX into Treasuries? That's right! Another delation scare aka. Stock/Commodity crash.... Gold and silver already giving the preliminary salvos...

    I agree with SC that things are lining up...

    ReplyDelete
  30. TZA target almost there. Now trading @ 10.60

    indusequitiesFebruary 1, 2013 at 10:30 AM

    RUT target would be 918.00.. TZA buy target @ 10.55

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and there you have it. Great call.

      Delete
    2. Looks attractive i agree. What are you thinking for potential targets? 15-ish?

      Delete
    3. TZA has to take out 12.97, before we can call any further rally. RUT potential pull back target is 874. But again, this is a crazy market. I may wrong too, but there is no perfect prediction of market direction. So playing with caution.

      Delete
  31. Payday ... it makes a lot of sense that they would shake the stock tree to get buyers into Treasuries.

    From my view there are two main methods of trading.

    1) Determine when the trend will change and try to buy the bottom [or go short at the top].
    This method is very satisfying when you get in at the lows and get out near the highs. The downside of this method is that you may end up fighting the trend if your timing is off.

    2) Find a trend and follow that. In this method you don't get in until... there is already an established trend. You do not buy the bottom. Often you get whipsawed around and stopped out, but the positive aspect of this type of trading is that when you do find a trend it can last a year or two. Ed Seykota said in trend following he expects to break even or lose a small amount on 4 out of 5 trades. But that 1 in 5 that puts in a long run is what you are looking for.

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  32. Bought TZA @ 10.52. Expecting this to close above 10.92 by the end of this week.. No confirmation, but bottom fishing from a weekly pattern completion.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Interesting interview with Faber.

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/international-markets/global-equities-may-see-10-correction-ahead-marc-faber_821738.html

    ReplyDelete
  34. Uh oh! TLT @ 115....uncle benny better do something quick!....Rapid SPX takedown should do the trick...

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