Wednesday, May 25, 2022
$VIX - 50 and 200 averages
VIX is making a pattern on the daily chart. VIX can still cool short term but conditions are increasingly ripe for a pop in Volatility. Daily has a golden cross and weekly also has a golden cross. Because SPX has made a slow selloff for five months, the VIX will likely pop when SPX is near a bottom under these circumstances. Daily and Weekly
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VIX looks like it can cool a little short term. A lot of moving averages around 22.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteunderstood!
Makes sense!
looking for SPX-4050 today!
Conditions are increasing for volatility but I think there is some time.
DeleteThe weekly chart just made that golden cross. The weekly VIX turned up in the middle of last year.
I have another interesting volatility chart coming.
ReplyDeleteThe head of Russia's space agency has announced that Moscow will soon have 50 new nuclear missiles.
ReplyDelete"Dmitry Rogozin, head of Roscosmos, warned that dozens of new Sarmat-2 missiles will be deployed by autumn to defend Russia against threats made by its enemies."
Sc
ReplyDeleteDo you actually think Russia is going to use a nuclear bomb ?
No, just a threat. But Russia is likely to scale up the war.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/Adie996/status/1529174153382830081
DeleteBringing in the heavies!!
Sc-
ReplyDeleteI know you have plans for Volatility--back in December you stated this will be a very volatile year--when do you expect the volatility to begin?
It looks like Putin and Biden is at a stand -still --War of Words!
One of the disadvantages that Russia faced in the initial attack on Ukraine was the weather. Winter/Spring made that time challenging. But this timing sets up for the major onslaught in the summer months with most favorable conditions for Russia to advance.
DeleteThere is time to work with because mobilizing soldiers in the massive numbers takes time.
ReplyDeleteDavos may be marking a high in Oil here
ReplyDeleterob,
ReplyDeletelook for a drop into tomorrow Spx-4050---then a rally into Tuesday!
Sc --I would love to know the time frame on Volatility---basically just the start of it?
Anyway it happens --the economic data in the morning will create a sell-off!
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteLook at that --a glimmer of hope---SPX 4150--summer driving season--will be fun this year--5 to 8 gallon--lots of people will be traveling---let the war intensify!
Finally was able to sell my SPY calls today into the bounce. Bought more June SPY 250/300/380/390s Puts. Let's see if VIX spikes into early/mid-June.
Deleteagreed!
ReplyDeleteexpect one more pop in volatility before intermediate bottom is set in stocks
ReplyDeleteSome interesting stuff. What I will be watching. May 16 https://www.valuetrend.ca/trading-lessons-from-past-bear-markets/ Expecting a rebound to 200 dma. approx 4400.
ReplyDeleteMay 29 https://www.valuetrend.ca/rally-looks-to-have-started-but-keep-these-things-in-mind-if-you-play-it/ Looking at fibs from covid low in Mar 2020 to high in Dec 2021, a 38% retracement equates to SPX 3800, which we roughly got on our last low. Now, if you draw a fib from high Dec 2021 to our low recent of 3800, 4400 is approx 62% retracement. 38% is near at 4200. Maybe some resistance. 50% is at 4300, again resistance. I'll be watching this, would expect to bounce around between 4200-4300 before an advance to 4400...if this is the correct analysis.
Rob
ReplyDeletestill expecting down to Middle of next week --Spx 3750 to 3700---lets see what happens
3300 or lower, will need a catalyst. Let's see. Holding puts thru next week.
DeleteRob-
ReplyDeleteStarting to think there is pullback tomorrow and a blow off top into the end of the week!
SC-- Uvxy --needs to get under 12--this makes sense!--Spx is moving up on low volume--Biden and Powell's meeting was too private --it looks above --Spx 4200--lets wait and see?
Bear market rally doing it's job, no bears left. Time to crash?
Deletesc---we are getting closer to vix--22---any advice?
ReplyDeleteDoesn't look like VIX wants to go below 25ish
DeleteRob --top of the wedge is 4185 to 4190--today or tomorrow--if we close below spx 4090--different story--depends on EOD!
ReplyDeleteRob-
ReplyDeleteJust a bear rally!
Rob-
ReplyDeletelooks like 3/15 to 3/29---we are not reversing so the run up can continue
SC said this would be a muted bounce...so perhaps this is all we get. No more bears left...
DeleteRob-
ReplyDeleteas long as oil is above 75 per barrel--it is a bear market --top is in --look for Spx 4175 -4200 by tomorrow --assume crash position --we will start selling off into Friday next week-below SPX 3800.
It is oil---Jamie Dimon has 150 to 175 per barrel--you can figure that out!
You were right --bear market rally.
Let's see - still no catalyst yet. Yes we are in a bear market, so need to be positioned for eventual crash.
DeleteRob
ReplyDeleteIt took me a while to understand this.
The news will fill into the wave --looks like Spx 3800-next week --probably lower!
if we get a pop up today--I will add to shorts!
I added shorts here today/yesterday. Waiting for the catalyst. Could be oil - its at $120. If no catalyst then we'll head higher to 4400s, but pretty sure it's a bear market rally.
DeleteMarkets are in rally mode for a while yet. Pullback and higher as we burn some time.
ReplyDeleteSeveral nasty surprise events are coming...that will liven up the VIX.
ReplyDeleteThose two events or catalysts are China Covid and Ukraine war.
ReplyDeleteRemember I had said war would be the reason for the biggest spike in VIX. I said this before the war had even begun.
ReplyDeleteInflation will likely test 1980 levels about 15% before cooling.
ReplyDelete"By 1979, inflation reached a startling 11.3% and in 1980, it soared to 13.5%."
How high do you think the Fed will be forced to take interest rates SC? They are boxed in at this point...
DeleteWhat happens in these situations is that the Fed's initial strategy is to talk down inflation. That works until it doesn't. We heard reports of 7 raises this year to talk down the market. They won't do it. Just talking about that is enough to cool prices. Eventually yes they'll have no choice but to raise massively. We are not at that point in time.
DeleteThey'll have to raise a little more actively though as Oil still rising. A couple points "emergency" should do it for this year.
Wondering if Fed will be cornered into raising rates faster - possible with an emergency rate hike to bring prices down?
DeleteYes to tame oil they have to do more than. These little .50 does nothing
DeleteAnd they drained the SPR...investors are not prepared for what's coming lol
DeleteTurkey's inflation 73%. These countries are wacked first.
ReplyDelete"Turkey's inflation soars to 73%, a 23-year high, as food and energy costs skyrocket"
Rob-
ReplyDeleteoil is still spiking --Spx 3850 --by next Friday!
the new bond vigilantes are the commodity energy traders, they are forcing that hand. Its why NG and CL are going to be very tradeable over next 3 years....Buy as much MLP yield as you can....
ReplyDeleteLABU and XBI looking good with bottoming tails on weekly. Entries soon, this month
ReplyDeleteThere's a very good reason why biotech is a good timing as I'll explain next
ReplyDeleteSC do you have a time windows 4 your june VIX spike? From which S&p500 level do you see a good entry point 4 a short positon before the big drop? Many Thanks..
ReplyDeleteHere I think SPX just burning some time with chop.
DeleteRally will continue but mostly we're just using some time. I do have a timing in mind as will be explained with the next chart
DeleteWe got a possible test of the lows coming-target stated inflation is on the rise --still I don't see volatility --Potus -is saying not much -let's see what happen?
ReplyDeletethink we are going to drop hard into June 9 to 3875.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteJune CPI released on Friday - can we go sideways until then lol? It is interesting seeing the bearish sentiment wearing off even though market not really bouncing.
Deletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-puke-red-after-report-sec-market-structure-change
DeleteHere's the possible catalyst - removal of HFT liquidity. Bought a couple more puts. Either we're gonna go down hard or bounce to 4400 from here lol.
Dunnster - almost at 3875 - can we crash into the FOMC meeting next wednesday - 3300/3500?
DeleteRIG is now pushing thru huge wkly cycle line...it will be first time above that cycle line since oct 18...bullish breakout could push it to 7.69 area
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/BQhn8xz4/Rig.png
DeleteEnergy hyper bullish and underinvested as SC said previously due to ESG lol. Going up for years to come.
DeleteWatching RIG closely also, but $5.00 has always been a tough resistance. So we'll have to watch and see for a reaction.
Deletesc-
ReplyDeleteThe vix at 23.39 is at 78.6% retracement---Uvxy no movement--no volatility!
Prices slowly dribbling down. We can see a bit more next week.
ReplyDeleteSc,
DeleteWhen are you expecting VIX pop up?
Volatility still looks to be declining. Still some time away.
DeleteBTW, something changed on this blog and I was unable to comment for weeks. I kept getting an error. Then I “allowed cross-site tracking” and “allow cookies” on Safari and now it works. I’m posting this just in case anyone else is having issues posting. There are a lot of missing faces lately.
ReplyDeleteOh, thank you! I did not realize
DeleteThe issue started when the Comments section switched from regular to “Sign in with Google”. Maybe switch back to regular comments because Google comments doesn’t seem to be automatically compatible with Safari. Users need to make adjustments in both Google and Safari in order to post comments
DeleteI had the same posting issue. Thanks for the direction on how to fix it.
ReplyDeletesc---looks like the top is in for the year---most profitable companies in the SPX are oil companies--tech bubble has started --it will die a thousand deaths into the next Presidential election. the Vix is not moving. Does anyone have a good recommendation???
ReplyDeleteHYMC running
DeleteHYMC Gold stock can be a good inflation hedge. Gold and Silver waking up a little today.
DeletePHX and SJT, I think MMLP is close to being a buy
ReplyDeleteBiden wiped out trillions in wealth via the market instead of sensible taxation
ReplyDeleteby design lol
DeleteI bought this dip big time
ReplyDeleteNext 5 days in my opinion I'm gonna rip higher I'm looking for 4200 plus let's go get it up
ReplyDeleteAlso think we may see a pop early next week.
DeleteSC what do you think happens August September? Thanks D👍
ReplyDeleteMarkets are working on putting in a low. Still expect bounces but muted over the summer.
DeleteI am expecting a 26 point move in the next 2 to 3 days in SPYI am going long in a huge way have a good day.
ReplyDeleteThis is the number I'm still watching for SPX. At 3,756 SPX would have erased all of 2021 gains.
ReplyDeleteI'm in big time
DeleteThere's blood in the streets
ReplyDeleteSC, you said VIX would pop a when Spx was near a bottom. Is that playing out now?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if we’ll see VIX 45-50 on this move?
VIX is trying to pop and it might just do it. Now I am looking more seriously at volatility.
DeleteSC, it's time for long spx?
ReplyDeleteI'm buyin big time
ReplyDeleteI'm a sick
ReplyDeleteI'm a sick BAS TAR DLO L
ReplyDeletewe need a rally --It's due!
ReplyDeletesafe to say we missed a large portion of a 1000 point down on the spx sigh
ReplyDeleteRip your face off rally about to happen
ReplyDeleteIs probably a 3 to 400 point rally
ReplyDeleteHolding short into Fed from 4150 SPX...3300/3500 seems doable in June if not lower...market being forced to price in substantial rate hikes to deal with inflation...
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteRemember --the put / call ratio is just as high as it was right before a major move -up or down--50/50 chance --I am long --lets wait and see-be nimble!
Louis, u Ok....best places to hide out now could be in yield growers, these should all grow, PHX, SJT, MMLP, AMLP, GEL
ReplyDeleteBought UVIX $21.50.
ReplyDeleteWhat is your UVIX exit target? $40 possible?
ReplyDeletesc---you are expecting a drop in the market and vix to rally higher ?
ReplyDeleteVIX going to spike soon - possible this and/or next week into and bc of FED's attempt to conquer inflation, oil, interest rates, japan yen...
DeleteBought some NTM puts on gold as well around 1870 and plan to hold at least thru FED on Wednesday. Watch the DX takeoff above 105 as another warning sign
DeleteI'm not super bearish or anything, but looking at the UVXY chart weekly it does appear to be trying to pop above the 50 weekly average at $18.37.
ReplyDeleteI'll post the chart.
vix futures have been above 50 weekly for quite a while
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteOn a daily--it looks lower---bear flag pole---but the fed meeting --Makes this 50/50 chance--not a bad hedge!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIs it time yet to buy LABU?
I want to see how it looks Friday. Very close though
DeleteI picked up size at 420 to celebrate bob marley, definitely a liquidity pick up in last couple days in biotech, the red herring is Cathy Woods is still in it and anything she touches is going to get torched
Deletelol 420. At least we are in a pandemic. Biotech a lot safer than many places
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteJust in case --fed meeting results--buying 1 out of the money put--if they talk 100 BP rise in the future and we can drop--it pays to be prepared--too much liquidation recently!
sc
ReplyDeleteDWAC 32---not a buy--or are we liquidating?
sc,
ReplyDeleteDWAC--27--???
In May DWAC based in a tight range similar to December. This time instead of spiking it dropped.
DeleteProbably a little early. Good midterm play.
UVIX testing gap support here. Looking good
ReplyDeleteVolatility etfs go up to catch up to where VIX already is
ReplyDeleteVIX looks like it's basing for at least 60 here soon
DeleteAdded UVIX $20.50 premarket
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletedwac --up 3 points --Vix is near 30--Lou looks right --we may need a pop before we drop---be nimble here--if short covering comes in at the end of Day --could be massive squeeze ---into option expiration--the fed hates put buyers!
SC, do you expect SP goes up to 4400-4600 in the next months?
ReplyDeleteIf we get to SPX 4200 to 4300--that is a gift to short everything --at that level--we hope we bottom at Spx 3000--wave a down was a 1000 points ( spx 4800 to 3800)- wave b up is 400 points (Spx 4200)---wave c down is coming (greater then wave A down) should end at Spx 3000---this is perfect Elliot wave theory
ReplyDeleteWhat's your time frame for spx 3000, this year, next year? Thanks!
DeleteUVIX has another open gap at $15.74
ReplyDeleteYes, but it seems to be trading in the higher gap for now.
DeleteUVXY golden cross on daily soon
DeleteShorts about to get bent over
ReplyDeleteShort you're about to get bent over
ReplyDeleteI think the big drop is coming in July
ReplyDeleteSpy gaps have to be filled
ReplyDeleteIf these aren't filled soon - they could be breakaway gaps that will be filled on the rally after the crash...
DeleteAfter this top maybe 3000 could happen
ReplyDeleteThere has to be a capitulation in speculative stock.
ReplyDeletePeople have mentioned 3000 or lower for spx. What's the time frame for spx 3000 or lower, this year, next year? This feels like it could drag on for quite some time...Thanks!
Deletesoon--anytime from to next week to next 30
ReplyDeleteThe weekly -200 day moving average is Spx 3500--we have gaps that need to be filled --should be filled by Friday--this should buy the dip--the problem is the bond market--be nimble!
ReplyDeleteVIX over 30 and holding. Volatility etfs therefore reprice higher.
ReplyDeleteUVXY, UVIX were too cheap for where VIX is already at
nice trade!
ReplyDeletesc--we still got gaps to fill on the upside--we all the vix is very manipulated!
ReplyDeletewe all know-
ReplyDeletethe vix is very manipulated!
New charts posted!
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your UVXY, UVIX price targets?