Elon Musk has invited Trump back to Twitter. Trump is said to have 80 million followers on Twitter, and could have a large voice once again soon. The closing of the Twitter acquisition could be a catalyst for DWAC stock. Daily
Sami--you can't blame people for not seeing inflation--I was in the option pits back in 87--I warned people back in January about a severe pull back (the numbers did not make sense) --SC- keeps people in safe areas--oil was the best trade in the six months-I made money with that trade--look for a rise in the market to early next week and short any big rally into end of month-look at the monthly chart and you will see the move -we will see SPX 3700 and lower lows into July--oil still has not seen -125 to 150 a barrel-we have a problem with our govt----they are way behind in their view of inflation -this is a controlled sell off--the VIX is not moving much-Have a good day!
deep pull back--we may --test the SPX 3000 level --who knows --how high inflation will get--the president is still giving money to this war --probably -cant be won! --he blames other people and not the failures of his office---this war excuse is getting old!
I'd post the chart but HOOD is pretty simple. It's a transactional brokerage. The same as the old style of broker that charged a commission per transaction.
The banks have mostly converted to asset managers in recent years. They charge a fee on a percentage of assets. Robinhood is different.
The more movement in the markets the more Robinhood makes. Last year I had said avoid HOOD because in that slow trending market a transactioal broker would not make money.
"President Biden, anticipating the milestone of one million American lives lost to Covid-19, said in a formal statement on Thursday that the United States must stay committed to fighting a virus that has “forever changed” the country.
“We must remain vigilant against this pandemic and do everything we can to save as many lives as possible, as we have with more testing, vaccines and treatments than ever before,” he said. “It’s critical that Congress sustain these resources in the coming months.”
As long as the dollar ---keeps increasing in value -this will keep the market going down--most recessions are 37% down--that's SPX 3036--obviously education is the key to this market. let's wait and see?
In my opinion we can see a surge further up initially but it'll quickly fade into a trading range or holding pattern. That's why I said a moderate bounce only now.
However later with Putin preparing for a surprise strike we can see another leg lower for markets again later. This could be a few months away.
Thanks, SC. I took a small long position Thursday night and Friday. I'm hoping for a move up that lasts a week or two, maybe longer. But then I also expect another leg down to new lows. Good weekend to you.
US Defense Secretary made a phone call to the Russian Defense Minister late this week, according to Gonzalo Lira who lives in Ukraine. They had not talked since the war began. It's the weaker party that makes the call, so the fact that the US Secretary called his Russian counterpart is indicative that the US knows what's going on over there, that Russia will prevail. Timing on this phone call is odd though because of the $40 billion Ukraine aid package the the war mongers in Congress passed on Friday. I'll post a link in a followup post because I'm not sure whether a link will prevent the comment from posting.
Here's a link to Lira talking about the phone call. He's on the ground in Ukraine, has lived there for several years, pretty much hates the Zelensky regime and the Nazi's who, according to him, have taken over the government there. (Nazi's which the US knew about and actually worked with in 2014 to oust the democratically elected Ukrainian President) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwjb7_sxVUU&t=611s
Looked at the Covid indicator and it is still continuing to rise. I will give away this secret and tell what this indicator is. Anyone can easily monitor it.
cool. would very much like to see how you monitor covid. And then the question becomes, if the covid indicator continues to rise, what's the expected impact on markets? And vice versa, what happens to markets if it falls?
Anyone watching UVXY/VIX here? Already pulled back - last time it was here SPX was 200 points higher, could be hinting at SPX strength into end of week?
I'm already positioned with crash puts (in case we don't bounce). Going to scale in more hopefully as SPX pushes closer to 4400 SPX. Thinking with this VIX selloff, that SPX should be able to push higher over next few days first. Then rollover for 3300 SPX? Let's see where the rally ends first.
To get above Spx 4300--there is a wall there at this time-Spx 4200 is the top of the downward trend -as we are speaking--they are telling me that tomorrow -could be a top for the week --I will wait and see --my hand is on the trigger--and I see lower numbers --but, I also don't want to get caught shorting on the bottom.
Rob SPX--will bottom late today--rally tomorrow -new Short term highs-with hope above SPX 4100 ---Then new Lows are coming into early next week Pmi (manufacturing numbers) are due out on Tuesday--with hope- we bottom there -Yet to be seen?
Well you called it - perhaps our tell was UVXY stretched to the downside. Can we still squeeze back to 4400 SPX? Seems like it's not going to happen unless we get a catalyst...very weak market.
I think it is going to perform well...they are holding down VIX/UVXY until the big flush happens in a few weeks-month - then it will rise like a beach ball underwater
According to cycles I follow, if volatility is to spike in the near term, it shall happen relatively soon, within next couple of weeks. There will be more cycle windows later this year
big trader placed bet the Vix call spread-the trader paid -1.1m for this bearish bet---if the vix lands over 90 by early / mid June, the trader will pocket $116 m ---on the CBOE--obviously they know something is coming!
Loaded with June SPY 250/300 Puts for it Dunnster. Will we see Dow 22k? Have some calls too in case we get any short squeezes...but doesn't look good for bulls either way as we're only getting dead cat bounces.
with this admin hell bent on making sure Russia defaults on sovereign debt, mostly US citizens will lose their investments on the bonds, that would be what that big better covets....and might know is close
he prospect of a Russia sovereign default is moving centre stage again with a deadline for a U.S. license allowing Moscow to make payments expiring on May 25 and $100 million in interest payments due shortly after.
As much as that is a problem --China, Taiwan and the U.S. -are not getting along--once sanctions are implemented--that will cause the big pull back --just buy Puts--once that happens!
so you know--looks up into mid week --Above Spx--4100 -maybe 4150--down into June --new lows--below SPX --3600--closer to Spx 3300---lets hope it bounces from that level--Have a good day!
Very true --How low can the Vix go-- down from here ???--The economy is not doing well and the politicians are looking for more sanctions---Isn't this the perfect storm?
SC... I gotta say you're SPX cycles have been pretty off lately... no offense....
ReplyDeleteSPX is about to crash here
That's fair. I don't trade SPX much though. Mostly my focus has been on Oil, and I know I have traded it very well.
DeleteBut we'll see about SPX. I'm going to be looking at volatility.
Sami--you can't blame people for not seeing inflation--I was in the option pits back in 87--I warned people back in January about a severe pull back (the numbers did not make sense) --SC- keeps people in safe areas--oil was the best trade in the six months-I made money with that trade--look for a rise in the market to early next week and short any big rally into end of month-look at the monthly chart and you will see the move -we will see SPX 3700 and lower lows into July--oil still has not seen -125 to 150 a barrel-we have a problem with our govt----they are way behind in their view of inflation -this is a controlled sell off--the VIX is not moving much-Have a good day!
ReplyDeleteSPX is pretty close to losing all of 2021's gains.
ReplyDeleteBut when we look at VIX and UVXY that's why clearly there's no real concern.
ReplyDeletesc
ReplyDeletedeep pull back--we may --test the SPX 3000 level --who knows --how high inflation will get--the president is still giving money to this war --probably -cant be won! --he blames other people and not the failures of his office---this war excuse is getting old!
Bought HOOD $7.90.
ReplyDeleteHOOD is GOOD!
ReplyDeleteI'd post the chart but HOOD is pretty simple. It's a transactional brokerage. The same as the old style of broker that charged a commission per transaction.
ReplyDeleteThe banks have mostly converted to asset managers in recent years. They charge a fee on a percentage of assets. Robinhood is different.
The more movement in the markets the more Robinhood makes. Last year I had said avoid HOOD because in that slow trending market a transactioal broker would not make money.
Now this is perfect conditions for Robinhood.
AMC quite a strong rebound this morning!
ReplyDeletesc
ReplyDeletesome monies are coming in --we are due for a bounce-i am hoping Spx 4100
Yes money flowing in, prices got too low.
DeleteAt 3,756 SPX would have erased all of 2021 gains
ReplyDelete"President Biden, anticipating the milestone of one million American lives lost to Covid-19, said in a formal statement on Thursday that the United States must stay committed to fighting a virus that has “forever changed” the country.
ReplyDelete“We must remain vigilant against this pandemic and do everything we can to save as many lives as possible, as we have with more testing, vaccines and treatments than ever before,” he said. “It’s critical that Congress sustain these resources in the coming months.”
UVXY now after 2 years testing 50 weekly average
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteAs long as the dollar ---keeps increasing in value -this will keep the market going down--most recessions are 37% down--that's SPX 3036--obviously education is the key to this market. let's wait and see?
The Vix is extremely controlled!
Once we bounce maybe back to 4400, then we can roll over for 3000 SPX...maybe only a month away...
DeleteRobinhood IPO priced at $38. I bought at $7.90. A bargain
ReplyDeleteSold HOOD $10.80.
ReplyDeleteNice gains today, lots of reversals yesterday!
ReplyDeleteWhat's your sense of the reversals today? Short term and then we continue lower, or longer term and we go back to near or even above all time highs?
DeleteIn my opinion we can see a surge further up initially but it'll quickly fade into a trading range or holding pattern. That's why I said a moderate bounce only now.
DeleteHowever later with Putin preparing for a surprise strike we can see another leg lower for markets again later. This could be a few months away.
Thanks, SC. I took a small long position Thursday night and Friday. I'm hoping for a move up that lasts a week or two, maybe longer. But then I also expect another leg down to new lows. Good weekend to you.
DeleteSc--up to mid next week--then --we wait for the answer--continuation of upward trend--or buckle up --crash position - the VIX will give us the answer!
ReplyDeleteFor volatility there is no event currently. We await Putin.
ReplyDeleteWhen Putin attacks on the offensive then VIX will rise like mushroom cloud
sc---I am guessing a use of chemical weapons or discovery of mass murders is the catalyst that you are waiting for?
ReplyDeleteThat is pretty hard to predict?
sc,
ReplyDeletePLTR--cheap!
Thank you!
DeleteOn the initial attack into Ukraine Putin moved approximately 190,000 troups.
ReplyDeleteI looked into it and the Russian army is stated to have 1,014,000 active soldiers and then another 2,000,000 in reserve.
So the conclusion is that thus far Putin has only used a small fraction of the Russian army in Ukraine.
And so given that Putin is not someone to give up easily we can deduce that another wave of attack is likely being planned.
US Defense Secretary made a phone call to the Russian Defense Minister late this week, according to Gonzalo Lira who lives in Ukraine. They had not talked since the war began. It's the weaker party that makes the call, so the fact that the US Secretary called his Russian counterpart is indicative that the US knows what's going on over there, that Russia will prevail. Timing on this phone call is odd though because of the $40 billion Ukraine aid package the the war mongers in Congress passed on Friday. I'll post a link in a followup post because I'm not sure whether a link will prevent the comment from posting.
DeleteHere's a link to Lira talking about the phone call. He's on the ground in Ukraine, has lived there for several years, pretty much hates the Zelensky regime and the Nazi's who, according to him, have taken over the government there. (Nazi's which the US knew about and actually worked with in 2014 to oust the democratically elected Ukrainian President)
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwjb7_sxVUU&t=611s
Thank you, I'll look into this. Definitely the Russian situation a key for markets this year.
DeleteThe Battles have just begun.
So this is why I have said that the market has time to rally. Because Putin will need time to prepare a second wave of attack.
ReplyDeleteOnce the attack is imminent, then I will plan to position into volatility.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB
Deleteunderstood!
ReplyDeleteI have some trades planned in volatility and others, let's see how this sets up.
DeleteWar trades that is
DeleteFriday the 13th!
ReplyDeleteocgn?
ReplyDeleteOCGN does look nice. Notice a confluence of moving averages 200 daily at $5.48 and 50 weekly at $5.59
ReplyDeleteLooked at the Covid indicator and it is still continuing to rise. I will give away this secret and tell what this indicator is. Anyone can easily monitor it.
ReplyDeletecool. would very much like to see how you monitor covid. And then the question becomes, if the covid indicator continues to rise, what's the expected impact on markets? And vice versa, what happens to markets if it falls?
DeleteDoubled up on OCGN $2.18.
ReplyDeleteTook profits sold DWAC $44.50
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI would like to see Spx--4100---but still very weak --but Spx -3700--still on the radar!
Covid not over
ReplyDelete"FDA authorizes Pfizer Covid booster dose for kids ages 5 to 11 years old"
Trump still in contempt of court so decided to take profits DWAC.
ReplyDelete"If those conditions are not met by May 20, Judge Arthur Engoron said he would reinstate a $10,000 per-day fine against Trump for being in contempt."
Anyone watching UVXY/VIX here? Already pulled back - last time it was here SPX was 200 points higher, could be hinting at SPX strength into end of week?
ReplyDeleteHope people are using these bounces to position for the coming crash...
DeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteYou are not the only one saying this to me --Spx -4100 tomorrow--buy UVXY into Friday or Monday crash ---are you still looking SPX 3700????
I'm already positioned with crash puts (in case we don't bounce). Going to scale in more hopefully as SPX pushes closer to 4400 SPX. Thinking with this VIX selloff, that SPX should be able to push higher over next few days first. Then rollover for 3300 SPX? Let's see where the rally ends first.
DeleteRob--
DeleteTo get above Spx 4300--there is a wall there at this time-Spx 4200 is the top of the downward trend -as we are speaking--they are telling me that tomorrow -could be a top for the week --I will wait and see --my hand is on the trigger--and I see lower numbers --but, I also don't want to get caught shorting on the bottom.
TWTR cheap price - merger arbitrage
ReplyDeleteRob
ReplyDeleteSPX--will bottom late today--rally tomorrow -new Short term highs-with hope above SPX 4100 ---Then new Lows are coming into early next week Pmi (manufacturing numbers) are due out on Tuesday--with hope- we bottom there -Yet to be seen?
Well you called it - perhaps our tell was UVXY stretched to the downside. Can we still squeeze back to 4400 SPX? Seems like it's not going to happen unless we get a catalyst...very weak market.
DeleteHmmmm
ReplyDelete"At 3,756 SPX would have erased all of 2021 gains"
Recession
ReplyDeleteDepression lol
DeleteSC--
ReplyDeleteNow you are finally seeing it --highs are in for the Year?
My approach is from the point of view of volatility. I do see SPX is weak but volatility is still relatively quiet also.
DeleteSPX could trickle down but it won't move big yet either
DeleteRob
ReplyDeleteEither word fits here!
I've been trading quite defensively taking profits often until the market is ready for larger swings.
ReplyDeleteSpx-3855---20% from the top--Recession
ReplyDeleteUVXY---I don't see as a viable Vehicle--very controlled!
ReplyDeleteI think it is going to perform well...they are holding down VIX/UVXY until the big flush happens in a few weeks-month - then it will rise like a beach ball underwater
DeleteIt'll come alive when there is an event. A fear event. When Putin launces massive offensive
DeleteUVIX might be better vehicle
Delete3856 SPX double bottom for rally to 4100-4200? If this thing can't bounce it's done lol
DeleteAccording to cycles I follow, if volatility is to spike in the near term, it shall happen relatively soon, within next couple of weeks. There will be more cycle windows later this year
Deletehttps://twitter.com/i/status/1527838910151155712
DeleteStart of the OFFENSIVE?
Not yet
DeleteRob
ReplyDeletewe are going down more -I don't think tomorrow --but -your SPX 3700 to 3600--looks correct!
Thank you -Biden!
Have a good night!
he literally is doing everything possible to make sure you have nothing but hey at least we have a tranny health secretary
Delete8 trillion was erased out of our economy --since he got in---He made his mark!
ReplyDeleteBy design.
DeleteDeena
ReplyDeletePlease expand on that thought -when you get a moment?
You actually think the politicians or wall street -wants a recession?
I would say yes...They are actually forcing the issue
Deletesc--
ReplyDeletewe should have bounced today---what happened!
Very odd that multiple times over last few weeks UVXY/SPX negative together and SPX not bouncing...Dunnster are we heading to 3700 into Monday?
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteis anything cheap here ???
I would like to know?
Let's size it up next week. Might see some backfill
Deletesc-
ReplyDeletebig trader placed bet the Vix call spread-the trader paid -1.1m for this bearish bet---if the vix lands over 90 by early / mid June, the trader will pocket $116 m ---on the CBOE--obviously they know something is coming!
Loaded with June SPY 250/300 Puts for it Dunnster. Will we see Dow 22k? Have some calls too in case we get any short squeezes...but doesn't look good for bulls either way as we're only getting dead cat bounces.
Deletewith this admin hell bent on making sure Russia defaults on sovereign debt, mostly US citizens will lose their investments on the bonds, that would be what that big better covets....and might know is close
Deletehe prospect of a Russia sovereign default is moving centre stage again with a deadline for a U.S. license allowing Moscow to make payments expiring on May 25 and $100 million in interest payments due shortly after.
DeleteWould love to see 4200 SPX next week to add more shorts...
DeleteAs much as that is a problem --China, Taiwan and the U.S. -are not getting along--once sanctions are implemented--that will cause the big pull back --just buy Puts--once that happens!
ReplyDeleteRob --
ReplyDeleteso you know--looks up into mid week --Above Spx--4100 -maybe 4150--down into June --new lows--below SPX --3600--closer to Spx 3300---lets hope it bounces from that level--Have a good day!
Sounds good - will be layering in more puts on the midweek bounce. SPX 2800-3300 seems possible if we're heading to VIX > 90 first half of June.
DeleteRob
Deletesame thing--I see!
Sad to say this--but it looks viable at this Time!
sc,
DeleteIf the VIX shoots to 80--where will uvxy be????
Not yet, VIX quiet
DeleteSC, do you have a program for the vix and s&p
ReplyDeleteYes, markets are getting choppy as Putin gets ready to strike. We wait
DeleteOver the past 15 years, there have been 36 daily selloffs of 4% or more, and the VIX was never as low as it was last Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteVolatility is unusually low. VIX lower lows from January
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteVery true --How low can the Vix go-- down from here ???--The economy is not doing well and the politicians are looking for more sanctions---Isn't this the perfect storm?
New charts posted!
ReplyDelete