Pages

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

TVIX - Friday the 13th Nightmare

TVIX is settling here and may cool further this week before it makes the next strong move.

Friday the 13th will likely be a nightmare for the stock market with new China tariffs due to hit on December 15th.

30min Chart

145 comments:

  1. Thanks SC, I was thinking 20 UVXY myself for the 13th when we got the last move.

    ReplyDelete
  2. TVIX dropped to the middle. There may be some reaction here but expect it to fall further this week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Uvxy 15 to 20 then down to 12 correct

      Delete
    2. UVXY $15 to $20, then $10 to end the Year 2019.

      Delete
    3. SC - are you expecting SPX at 3200 at year-end?

      Delete
    4. Higher high at year end for SPX, probably that is close. The santa claus rally is definitely coming.

      Delete
  3. If SVXY settles enough here it may make sense to re-enter or just wait for the entry on TVIX or UVXY.

    Cycles are down for SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sc r u expecting new high here or stall

    ReplyDelete
  5. The second half of December looks positive, but until December 13th still expecting a lower low SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Replies
    1. This morning was probably an entry for SVXY, even now is decent. It still looks to be heading higher. Or just wait for TVIX to come down in a few days.

      Delete
  7. covered uvxy and tvix short even though it looks like 14.50 is coming and 57 is comingon tvix

    ReplyDelete
  8. sc haha your target on uvxy was met good job!!!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yes, great job SC, target's are getting hit fast.

    ReplyDelete
  10. See, isn't this fun!!!

    SCNovember 25, 2019 at 6:42 AM

    "December is set to be an excellent month for short term trading - the best strategy!"

    ReplyDelete
  11. Look for entry TVIX/UVXY soon, today or Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I'm thinking Monday because we could go 3160

    ReplyDelete
  13. There's very little time left on this rally. Maybe monday better but the heaviest selling will occur next week.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Not sure of what to make of this slow motion slide

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX might actually close green today. For SPX it is slow, more interesting is volatility which is just the opposite, quite active today.

      Delete
  15. SC, is there a derivative one can use to bet on Vix on day to day bases?

    tvix and uvxy etc seem to be somewhat on a world of their own.. vix up 12% today... tvix thats suppose to be 200% of it.. is up 7%...

    I get the futures curve, but is there another tool one can use that actually follows the vix 100%?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is no etf tracking the VIX itself. All are tied directly to VIX futures.

      There are VIX options.

      I agree it can be annoying that there is no direct relationship with the VIX, but it's okay. Yes UVXY/TVIX underperform VIX at times, but they also outperform at other times. For example TVIX more than doubled from August to October 2011 during a period that VIX did not gain at all. On the whole move TVIX gained 700% with VIX only 300%.

      The issue with the curve will be resolved in January. So we won't have the wait long. In January a large move is coming and TVIX will likely outperform VIX on a percentage basis.

      Delete
    2. I have identified several options trades coming up which look excellent.

      A strategy that looks appealing is to build a core position in either UVXY or SVXY then add an options position for increased upside with little risk.

      Delete
    3. 2020 is the perfect setup for volatility. So for now it is what it is, and that is fine.

      Next year is going to be amazing...

      Delete
  16. Replies
    1. Hate to chase, but $80 TVIX this week looks achievable. Next week possibly closer to $90.

      The low is due December 16th to 18th.

      Delete
  17. Sorry SC,
    But the 16th is Monday.The 18th is Wed.How does this add up to $90 next week?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Did you mean the low for the spx

    ReplyDelete
  19. TVIX mid support around $66 today.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Possible small up day today for SPX. The deepest selling coming soon, probably tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  21. All sorts of rumours and innuendo coming out in the news.

    Stay with the charts!!

    ReplyDelete
  22. We have a bunch of bipolar politicians would you be great for volatility

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, conditions are configuring for extreme volatility...

      Delete
  23. Sc you look at the by this back at a cheaper level?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Strong reaction to the $67's.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Notice TVIX was rejected at the gap this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  26. was a great trade i tried to buy 10000 shares but they didnt give it to me

    ReplyDelete
  27. Cycles are down into next week December 18th.

    ReplyDelete
  28. its weird how tvix and uvxy up a penny each

    ReplyDelete
  29. It's starting to look like may only fill the gap at $76 TVIX this week. Higher TVIX next week but plan to exit this week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC - do you plan to re-enter TVIX early next week then?

      Delete
    2. Maybe, but it's best as we get closer to December 18th to focus more on SVXY entry rather than TVIX/UVXY.

      We'll see.

      Delete
    3. I was a bit surprised TVIX went as high as it did last week. That move was exaggerated.

      Delete
  30. I don't like how the TVIX was so high pre market today because the move may have already happened. Play it safe.

    ReplyDelete
  31. sc going are you going for the tripple trade today lol

    ReplyDelete
  32. Replies
    1. THE PROBLEM IS ARE WE TOPPING TODAY THE 12TH 13TH OR 18TH

      Delete
    2. The low is still December 16th to 18th.

      Delete
    3. SO I GUESSS I WILL SHORT UVXY AROUND THE 18TH DOWN TO 10

      Delete
    4. Yes, that is the dominant move.

      Delete
  33. This is actually very simple. Chart coming...

    ReplyDelete
  34. Here comes the nightmare...

    https://youtu.be/xR8oke8rzp8

    ReplyDelete
  35. Maybe I'll buy a 100000 UV XY here then if it goes lower another 100000

    ReplyDelete
  36. I have a funny feeling trump will delay the tariff

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ultimately the tariffs will not be an issue.

      Delete
  37. The TVIX mid support (orange) is around $65 tomorrow. So possibly that could be tested.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Could also hold TVIX until December 18th anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  39. your now grasping at straws, basing a trading decision on a tariff possibility, heck, there is more of a chance the british vote lead to a little down move

    You should take a look at 4th year of first year president....second best time to invest in first term potus....

    What is reality, wall street doesn't want a change in potus....they will run it up thru august of next year, they are going to not let a democrat win.....good luck shorting this market.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. theres gonna always be volatility my average uvxy was 14.60 i made money i will short any pop on volatility

      Delete
  40. piece of shit the only way is to short this crap

    ReplyDelete
  41. How is this even legal. They will never let this fall.

    ReplyDelete
  42. sc whats your prognosis now that we blasted through 65?

    ReplyDelete
  43. TVIX still looks good for the pop into December 18th. Nothing new.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SVXY forming lower high. Next week it drops to touch the 50 day moving average at $59.50.

      Very simple.

      Delete
    2. SC - Are we going to get a larger pullback in SPX next week with the way it's gotten stretched to the upside?

      Delete
  44. SCDecember 11, 2019 at 11:53 AM

    Down days tomorrow and Friday with tomorrow the worst.

    ReplyDelete
  45. I am out fu this piece of shit I will short if it pops 14.65

    ReplyDelete
  46. Bought UV XY at 14 I'm a glutton for punishment still made money though

    ReplyDelete
  47. everybody hiding behind there desk lol

    ReplyDelete
  48. sc are you gonna ride this down like last time?

    ReplyDelete
  49. SC what is after jan. When uvxy hits 10. Looks like this market wont give up 10 spx pints

    ReplyDelete
  50. sc since we broke the orange pitchfork what is the prognosis now

    ReplyDelete
  51. https://www.screencast.com/t/0de3GCxdR

    ReplyDelete
  52. SC - are we still looking for SVXY to roll over into the 18th or is it going to be into Xmas now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes expect a dip into the 18th, then the Christmas rally will begin.

      Delete
  53. TVIX and UVXY targets are valid, but not for this month. They'll hit in January.

    ReplyDelete
  54. SC; your dates keep changing... The rally won’t stop until the end of the year...
    SCDecember 9, 2019 at 12:56 PM
    TVIX could see as high as $90 by December 18th

    ReplyDelete
  55. 18th is the VIX futures roll over date so that is probably the temporary low for TVIX & UVXY. Another date that is close is a Bradley turn date on the 20th.

    ReplyDelete
  56. So u expecting early jan uvxy 10 than fall in spx

    ReplyDelete
  57. so you 66 buy was not for this month? it was for january

    ReplyDelete
  58. Detailed charts are coming soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC seems like we are going to be topping into the 18th if anything and will need to hold for a bigger pullback into xmas/year-end?

      Delete
    2. Year End rally is likely. The VIX Futures curve is against TVIX/UVXY until January.

      Delete
  59. Stock block is going to 3350 by may of twenny twenny

    ReplyDelete