Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Extremely pleased with the performance of the SPX model!
The targets are hitting accurately for both time and price. The model is set for weekly bars to eliminate noise occurring on a daily basis.SCJanuary 3, 2019 at 6:39 AM"Yes, the rally in SPX started with strength. The largest up day on the DOW was followed by the strongest reversal to the upside in 9 years. This week is a consolidation week. A close around 2,560 would be about right, next week much stronger with the push into the 2,600's. The daily chart is breaking out."
Yes SC, I agree. SPX has a very bearish look from the Dec 24 low. However I don't share your longer term prospect. I think a repelling of price at the 50 DMA is classic bear market action.We are about to see a continuation of the Wave iii decline which commenced on Dec 2
Yes, 50 dma is most important right now, and agree it will repel.
SC, when you say "March will be the month for SPX plunge to the lows", do you see a retest of the low or a lower low? Thanks!
Retest technically though a slightly lower low is possible.
The deck is stacked in favour of the bears. We have the longest government shutdown in US history. Sears bankruptcy. Brexit. Bank earnings. Bear time!!
SC u expecting. 2440 to 2750. And lower low in march. R u still expecting higher high for 5th wave later
No 5th wave. The market decided no in December. SPX has topped.
SC, just a little confused, if SPX topped, shouldn't it drop much lower instead of just retest of the low?
The model predicts bulls will celebrate July 4th with big summer bounce.
SC, how high SPX at end of Feb?
2,440 SPX next, then February looks positive but only mildly bullish to 2,585 SPX in the model. SPX is effectively down into April from the high forming now.
Beetle, wait until you see my VIX chart...
Sears bk is already priced in and govt. shutdown don't affect companies unless defense or transportation. I would use news to make predictions in a cycle....just use the cycle...bank earnings will be the tell, they know how to short also, look for interest sensitive sales products to start seeing higher revenue for MM's.....
As always charts, the cycles, the math.We do have a confluence of news this week.The media will find a reason for the selloff. When the tide rises boats rise, and when the tide sinks boats sink.
Citigroup slips on dancing shoes.
Apple still cooked.
Sold UPRO $37.75.
Bought SPXU $42.20.
im long spxs 27.94
there is apossibility in my opinion that we hit 2605 end of daythen down in my opinion if thats the case i will buy more spxs
I think SPX down for a few days then might try one last gasp to hit 2,600's. Later in the week price drops off the cliff.
i hope your right and it goes strait down i took a big position but will buy more if i have to i am looking to short uvxy when it pops up to 80 85 if that happens
"People in North and South America, a large part of Europe and Africa may get a glimpse of a total lunar eclipse overnight from January 20 to 21, the last such event until 2022.During the eclipse, the Moon will still be visible, but in a shade of red. That's why a lunar eclipse is often called a "blood Moon.""
Sit back and enjoy the bear.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbE53XUtVw0
Surprise! JPM plunges!!
spx 2610 like i said
i see jpm morgan up now
Bank results have been coming in weak. JPM managed small gain, Citi tested gap. Not looking good for the banks.
buy the dip script to 2610 2612 then down
seems like we are over that red resistance now.. do you see us going straight up to that 2700 area?thanks
The red line is not exact. Band of resistance is intact.
SC if i understand well your call, you are waiting the start of a down wave on S&p500 from a top around 2610 - 2620 to 2460 . This wave can start between now and the blood moon ( 20 - 21 january), with target for end january around 2460.. it this right? many thanks..
Yes, that is right.
many thanks SC. projection target are 2618 and 2635 ( close gap too)let'see
possible 2620 on expanded diagonal
SPXU weekly great chart for the bears. SPXU can come down $1 more before it spikes. Perfect setup.
UVXY target reached. SCJanuary 10, 2019 at 8:13 AM"UVXY should see $58. $40's in February."
For SPX I'd estimated 2,625 to 2,635. Gap at 2,635.Notice that SPX has taken into 4th week to recover from 1 week of losses in December.
Brexit linking up with bloodmoon, how lovely."Following a controversial amendment, the U.K. government now has just three working days to map out a new plan of action. With Parliament not set to sit on Friday, that means a new plan must be agreed with Europe and presented to U.K. lawmakers by the close of business on Monday January 21. May confirmed in Parliament that she would adhere to this."
Next event Sears bankruptcy.
If the Sears’ unsecured creditors formally object to the bid, the bankruptcy judge will need to assess the merits of their claim on Jan. 31. Lampert needs the judge’s sign-off in order for his bid to be official."
so you are thinking a top on the 22nd of jan
there is apossibility of 2644
market still strong 4 now.gap need to close...2635 -2637
perheaps a false break out on the final.. a short term toppish signal
short 2623.5 ( futures 2019/03) , may be a false b.out stop 2625.05.let's see..
bull buying stampedes last 17-26 days with pullbacks in between, were at day 14....they are forcing sideline money into the game, earnings season is not the time to short, afterwards much better....the banks are doing much better than you mention above, and JPM didn't plunge as you state.....no more action verbs and adjectives needed to make a statement. It was wrong...
VIX green today with SPX green. When this happens pay attention. Always a clear warning!
sox index not confirming rally even though the spx could go a little higher there is a possibility to see 2640 before we drop
lower high on s&p 500 4 now... yes Loius... 2637 high gap possible.. let's see
markets look like there gonna tip over soon maybe one more pop up
2640 just like I thought
good call louis
SPX gap filled
i believe thats the top should end in sour note we will see
It's Eminence SC. Pete Townshend guitar legendhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ6dA2Afrsw
Yes!!! Thanks Michael my friend! Very nice!!
There is a possibility that we hit the down sloping line of 2700not likely thou i am seeing alot of negative divergence lets see what happens
This rally seems to have serious legs. Rather than a retracement, SPX has powered ahead with not a down day this week. 2700 looks more likely before we see any significant decline imo. Don't fight the Fed and the Fed have gone more dovish.
SC IT LOOKS LIKE YOUR CHART FROM DEC 24TH IS LEGIT 2700 PROBALLY WILL COME I SHOULD OF HELD THAT UVXY SHORT AND UPRO A LITTLE LONGER
Thanks, it hit nicely.
I think that spx will go down till Jan 30-31 Anything new about crypto btc? Seems that in some crypto there are some repetetion of the Nov-Dec 2018 pattern, also in btc
Bitcoin is almost ready. Chart coming this week.
Looks like everyone is bullish. 2720. 2740. 2800 targets
some confluences happening now timing wise:1) Terry Laundry's T method using the last major high of December 3 is showing a top on January 18.2) Full Moon/Lunar eclipse tonight at 10:17 PM local time (Mountain Standard)3) Venus Jupiter conjunction early Tuesday morning (before the market opens).Any one of these could coincide with a turn in market direction. All three suggests it's pretty likely that Friday was some kind of top, possibly carrying over into trading on Tuesday. If instead the market continues the rally, I will start to seriously consider that the Christmas low was THE low and it's just up up and away from here. The recent breadth thrust lends support to that outlook.
Thank you, interesting!
I like T's, used to post the timing cycles regularly.
Just an FYI regarding Laundry's T method: Another larger T is projecting some kind of top around mid-March, with a lower probability that that top could occur in early March. Also, note that the T method doesn't always work! (Does anything?)
I just did a quick study re Venus Jupiter conjunctions going back to 2005. There were 14 during this time period. The 15th will be the one on Tuesday morning. Results posted below (but don't know whether they will format correctly). Summary is 1) most were tops, 2) the change in trend occurred with 6 trading days of the conjunction (most were within zero to 3 trading days), and 3) the new trend usually lasted 20 days or longer, several lasted more than 50. days days new top orconj date to CIT trend bottom09/02/05 4 24 t11/15/06 5 3 t02/01/08 0 30 t12/01/08 -5 or 0 29 or 24 b02/16/10 -6 54 b05/11/11 -1 or -7 108 or 102 t03/15/12 2 4 t05/28/13 -3 or 0 22 or 19 t08/18/14 -7 30 b07/01/15 3 9 b07/31/15 0 41 t10/26/15 6 68 t08/27/16 -3 52 t11/13/17 -4 or 2 6 or 48 t or b01/22/19
Thanks for the data! Let's see this time play out.
you're welcome. too bad the formatting didn't work 'cause the way the data displays it's pretty much worthless. But the summary I posted is probably all we need to know from this data.
New chart posted!