Weekly SPX is oversold now, much more so than in February, and that likely suggests the bounce will be fast. SPX is testing the weekly 200 moving average which notably is rising.
People will need to adjust to a larger, faster paced market looking forward.
Weekly
Notice VIX lower high from February. Recent VIX pop confirms SPX is bottoming now.
Weekly
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!
ReplyDeletePS - Don't worry about the market. The market is more resilient than people realize at this moment and everything is unfolding as it should...
Lot of confident bears. Retrace up starting in January?
DeleteDefinitely agree. It's going to be a fun ride back up!
DeleteSc what is future. It will bounce to what and then what. Merry christmas
ReplyDelete2,700 SPX then 2,400, give or take.
DeleteMerry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone
ReplyDeleteBest market ever! We are set for a spectacular 2019!! Congratulations traders!!!
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteThank you for this great blog!
Your advice is golden.
Happy New Year!
Scott
Thank you very much! All the best in the New Year!
DeleteSC - Looks like timing of the washout low is occurring now and not early next year?
ReplyDeleteShort term, SPX warming up today. The washout is finishing in the late stage.
DeleteIn this chart these are weekly bars though. Expect that this bottoming process can take a few weeks to complete. Resistance around 2,460 for now.
To properly test the orange support can see chop in the 2,310 to 2,460 range for a few weeks here before the big spike up occurs.
Everything looks great but this will take some patience in my opinion.
Ok so looks like we may bottom in January then. Are you buying oil here as well SC? I know you had mentioned a 150-200 price target a few posts ago.
DeleteOil came down to near my $40 but no I haven't.
DeleteSC - Are you waiting for stocks to bottom first before buying oil?
DeleteSee below.
Deleteglad i bought that bottom
ReplyDeleteBear markets do what bear markets do.....some of the biggest rallies ever in the SP were during the GFC....nothing particularly unusual about today when you look back at history
ReplyDeleteCertainly that is true. Good point. Great call on the 2,380 SPX by the way!
DeleteVery exciting year ahead. First bear market for UVXY!!! Bear charts are ready waiting for when the time is right...
DeleteDow up 1,000 today, largest one day gain in history.
ReplyDeleteThe market likes my orange line ha!
However this isn't about the daily. It's about the weekly, and the market is a big ship to turn around.
Deletesc are you expecting a retest of the low?
DeleteIt might. SPX tested the high end of the range yesterday. I had estimated 2,460. It reached 2,467. Cooling off today.
DeleteI'm very pleased with the price action. Perfect!
ReplyDeleteI've looked at Oil. What makes Oil interesting is that the last time we had a bear market in S&P 2008, Oil went parabolic up that year.
ReplyDeleteNow I figured Oil would stay above $40 and it bottomed at $42 with a pipe bottom on the daily which is one of the best performing reversal patterns.
I like Oil, the chart is actually mimicking the 2008 setup, but in my opinion a parabolic move is not likely this time around. The main reason is that Oil was the biggest mover in 2016, and markets do not repeat big moves so soon.
I think $60 to $65, maybe more. I have a plan for Oil later...
SCDecember 19, 2018 at 12:32 PM
"Let me see what I can do. Might see a little lower but bounce into January. Should hold $40 or above."
UVXY has squarely reached the target, taking last gasps for air short term. Plummet in first days of January.
ReplyDeletehow low 50
DeleteUVXY may grind higher for a few days but expect it will reverse all of a sudden. I'm eyeing $42.
Deleteive been shorting 75 80 90
ReplyDeleteare you shorting uvxy
ReplyDeleteI notice that SVXY is retesting near the February crash low.
DeleteIt looks good. Successful retest. Rather than shorting UVXY I'd rather long SVXY. The upside is not as good but the risk is less.
I know you will trade short term so I don't worry about you, but I do worry about people who don't understand the risk and short UVXY long term.
People stay short UVXY all the time and that trade is extremely crowded. The time will come when shorting UVXY will lead to unlimited losses.
I think we ALL need to take a step back and look at the internals of this market. I don't think we go too much higher than yesterday's high if at all.
ReplyDeleteAlso the POTUS is antagonising the overall global situation. I think the US and China are headed into a very extended Cold War.
That will have dire consequences for the global economy and I think stocks, aside from being horrendously overvalued back in September, were looking for reasons to enter a new bear market and Donald Trump has certainly given it a reason.....A bloody BIG reason at that.
On October 1, 2018 I became concerned skeletons were about to pop out of the closet. Kashioggi was killed the following day on October 2, 2018.
ReplyDeleteSCOctober 1, 2018 at 9:40 AM
"So what's next? Is Mueller ready to interview trump? There's enough skeletons in Trump's closet to make a graveyard jealous..."
Trumps skeletons are out, but Saudi Arabia may be the next shoe to drop. Coup attempt?
Deletewho cares that aint making me rich not more skeletons then the clintons 250 million net worth where that come from
Deletedwarfs trumps skeletons and guess what we all have them
SC, the global situation as a whole is very unstable. As I mentioned above, the POTUS is antagonising China, HOWEVER I don't think he is doing it in a rogue way.
DeleteI think the US establishment are very concerned with the rise of China and I think they're going to take steps to attempt to curb China's ascent even if it means a Cold War.
I think they are prepared for the consequences of a Cold War and have decided that China would suffer far more that the US.
I tend to agree. Nobody should underestimate the steps that the US establishment will go to, to retain the status as the global super power.
Even if it means a Cold War
I know and agree. My comment was meant to be about the media putting the blame on politics for the market drop. It's interesting to comment on the psychology behind market moves. Not to be taken as a political view.
Deletei hear ya market should pop here 2500 to 2550 into january
DeleteBears jumped the shark. The economy is booming!
ReplyDeleteIf SPX were to form a perfect spinning top candlestick on the yearly it would finish the year at 2,604 SPX.
ReplyDelete"So you're telling me there's a chance"
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg
https://nypost.com/2014/04/09/lessons-from-stock-market-rigging-history/
DeleteSC--perhaps we have gone past ambitious? LOL
I've been thinking this whole episode through this month has been one of the great beat traps in history. Since the Fed has hoisted the balls up flag into the rigging of the market (appropriate?), do you think the final chapter of the bull market in $USB--long bond is here?
Lol. It does seem contrived at times. Bottom on Christmas Eve. Let me see...top 4th of July Haha!
DeleteUp big for SPX this week! Bull stampede for two more weeks!!
ReplyDeletewondering if we hit 2450 to 2420 before stampede
DeleteYes, some retracement is possible. SPX hit some resistance yesterday and dipped from exactly the blue line. Today trading around the turquoise resistance all day.
DeleteMy feeling next week will likely be up but not huge. Needs some consolidation in the 2,500's before running into the 2,600's. The following week looks stronger into January 11th which then brings us to the Sears bankruptcy on January 14th.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wSQMwlqy0s
ReplyDeleteFunny
DeleteVacuum rally could go up to dow
ReplyDelete24200 to 25000 in my opinion
looks like 2450 2420 before a move up
ReplyDeleteSC, how long to the top green oval on your top chart, you mentioned bull stampede for 2 weeks, can we exceed the oval to the upside?
ReplyDeleteYes, the rally in SPX started with strength. The largest up day on the DOW was followed by the strongest reversal to the upside in 9 years.
DeleteThis week is a consolidation week. A close around 2,560 would be about right, next week much stronger with the push into the 2,600's. The daily chart is breaking out.
The bigger picture looks even better. The weekly chart is firming up and that will fuel the move up into the 2,800's.
im wondering if we drop to 2420 first and then after the 7th of january start moving up
Deletewe should bounce from here
DeleteUVXY sinking like a stone, confirming SPX rally.
ReplyDeleteNotice UVXY couldn't move over yesterday's high.
DeleteStrength in Oil today as well.
ReplyDeleteLooks like another failed rally to me, like early Nov and late Nov. UVXY behaving similar to Dec 10 - 13 before SPX dropped 300 points. We might get a bounce tomorrow based on jobs data, but market fundamentals are horrible right now.
ReplyDeleteYes, bounce on jobs. January 14th the week for the bears.
DeleteLittle hiccup with Apple yesterday but VIX said nothing to worry about.
ReplyDeleteMy model is set up for weekly bars, and I think will prove quite accurate.
ReplyDeleteThis week has been holding solid. Next week looks very bullish. Next high January 14th.
sc next low on 7th? your thoughts
DeleteIt's possible to see some softness early next week, but I expect a very strong close next week on Friday.
DeleteIn general the economy is booming and SPX is really cheap. The price will rise higher with little resistance.
uvxy getting smashed im gonna hold till 50
DeleteExpecting UVXY low last week of February.
DeleteSC, what's you price target or range for SPX for next Friday? Thx
Delete2,625 SPX
DeleteApple has a big weighting on the S&P 500. Definitely a drag on the index, but most people realize the business is saturated. How many phones can a company sell?
ReplyDeleteThe favorites come and go, the index will just continue higher over time.
Bull stampede ;)
ReplyDeleteSc what is uvxy in end of feb
ReplyDeleteFebruary is set to be a calm month for markets. Estimate $40's for UVXY.
ReplyDeletesc do you think there is a possibility for a double bottom
Deletefor spx since its been trading around the 200 and normally does what are your thoughts
Yes, March will be the month for SPX plunge to the lows.
DeleteIn the model this week looks very positive.
ReplyDeleteSC - any thoughts on gold? I think you mentioned it might be time to short it a few months ago around 1300?
ReplyDeleteGold popped recently but probably will settle back a little short term. $1,225 or so but Gold has been trading in a tight range for a few years and I don't see a big move either way in the short term. Resistance up around $1,375 could be tested later this year and that may be the spot to look short.
DeleteI'd estimated on Thursday that SPX finish the week 2,560. It didn't quite make it for Friday, but we are at the level now a few hours into Monday. So we're right on track. 2,625 give or take this Friday.
ReplyDeleteThere's a gap at 2,635 SPX.
ReplyDeletei dont see gap what date and chart is it
Deletewe are probally going to hit that neck line 261 on spy just my opinion then i believe we will reverse course
DeleteGap I believe Dec 14th.
Deleteyes very small
DeleteAny charts on cryptos ?
ReplyDeleteYes, chart is coming soon. Have been waiting patiently.
DeleteSC: if s&p stay under 2570 perheaps there is the possibility of a fast down around 2500 or 2450 before continue up trend.
ReplyDeletelet's see
thats always possible if it did i would buy big if that happened
DeleteLet's see. There could be some chop but overall the picture is positive.
DeleteSPX should still run higher and close strong this week. Next week looks negative.
Agree that support building 2,470.
DeleteUvxy short covered 69
ReplyDeleteStrong pop for Oil! Reversal pattern performs!!
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 27, 2018 at 8:47 AM
"I've looked at Oil. What makes Oil interesting is that the last time we had a bear market in S&P 2008, Oil went parabolic up that year.
Now I figured Oil would stay above $40 and it bottomed at $42 with a pipe bottom on the daily which is one of the best performing reversal patterns."
We have seen the classic V bottom capitulation for SPX.
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 20, 2018 at 6:01 AM
"This move does classify as a capitulation. In a capitulation the decline becomes vertical, and once the low is reached on exhaustion the price rises just as fast. V bottom is likely on this move."
UVXY ran out of air, plummeted!
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 27, 2018 at 8:57 AM
"UVXY has squarely reached the target, taking last gasps for air short term. Plummet in first days of January."
i hoping to see that at 75 80 so i could short it again
DeleteMight see that month end January.
DeleteBitcoin coming down to 3,200. Chart will be posted soon showing next move.
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 21, 2018 at 7:56 AM
"Yes, I have developed a bottoming model for bitcoin. It popped but I expect settle back to retest the low 3200 next."
sc have you heard about sdr backed crypto? special drawing rights
Delete"Bitcoin’s value has grown immensely in 2017 outperforming nearly every world currency, stock, and commodity this year. With a global average of over $18,000 per BTC and a $300Bn+ market valuationbitcoin has surpassed the IMF’s international reserve assets ($291Bn). The SDR is comprised of a ‘basket of legal tender’ from five nation-states. The value of the SDR, also known as XDRs, is based off a percentage of Chinese renminbi, U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro, and the British pound sterling. The SDR was created in 1969 using the Bretton Woods exchange system, and before 1973 it contained the value of 0.8 grams of gold."
ReplyDeleteThere is a bitcoin etf coming up for approval in February. A true bitcoin etf is getting close to becoming reality.
ReplyDeleteI believe that as well but I'd rather buy one that's back by countries
DeleteFutures are the only pure play currently. Other than that GBTC which is a trust, not an etf and trades at a premium is the only play.
DeleteWell there is the Venezuelan backed Petro. I think I'll pass on that one haha!
DeleteSC Bought WFC close to bottom. Earnings report Jan 15 pre market, JPM reports same time. Should I sell now or wait? Thanks SC. Love your SPX updates!
ReplyDeleteThank you! The SPX rally is nearing completion in my model. I do expect the high soon, and prices to drop into month end January. February bullish the entire month.
DeleteThe time is coming to take profits and short into month end.
DeleteSC are you thinking SPX will pullback from here into 2400s?
DeleteSPX nearing a high, a little more, but yes I think we can see 2,470 SPX by month end.
DeleteSC are you waiting to short early next week around 2625 SPX?
DeleteTime to take profits and build short.
DeleteUVXY should see $58. $40's in February.
ReplyDeletehow high first though 80 thats the question
DeleteBitcoin sudden plunge!
ReplyDeleteSc what price level do you see for the low towards the end of this month?
ReplyDeleteThanks
SPX 2,460 low coming later in January.
Deletelow should be put in by 24th of january i will short uvxy then if that happens
ReplyDeleteSC: are you waiting s&p500 top monday 14 around 2615 or 2635 ? or what else? are this good point to enter short S&p500 in your opinion?
ReplyDeletemany thanks
The selloff is due, momentum was lost into the end of this week.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete