A catalyst for bitcoin is coming soon. The parent company for NYSE is about to launch their bitcoin product.
"Bakkt has raised $182.5 million to build out its global digital assets platform and bitcoin futures product.
The round, which is Bakkt’s first, included 12 partners, according to a Medium post by CEO Kelly Loeffler. The crypto startup is owned by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which is best known as the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)"
"The document from ICE — the operator of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and creator of digital assets platform Bakkt — states that “[f]ollowing consultation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC], ICE Futures U.S., Inc. expects to provide an updated launch timeline in early 2019 for the trading, clearing and warehousing” of Bakkt’s Bitcoin (BTC) futurescontract.
The document reiterated that previously the firm had been targeting Jan. 24, 2019 as a launch date, but that the date “will be amended pursuant to the CFTC’s process and timeline.”"
Hi SC, are you still looking for the same scenario (a roughly one week decline to ~2450)? The top came a little higher and later than originally forecast, and as I'm not familiar with your methods I'm curious to know if this has any impact. Thanks!
Yes, it does have an impact. The model is set up for weekly bars. The benefit to that is it eliminates much of the noise we see on a daily basis. The model suggested that SPX would have a "bad" week. We are seeing that, but unfortunately SPX did manage to rally for 1 extra week and the starting price was shifted higher as a result.
The price target needs to be adjusted. Around 2,560 is more appropriate.
As well the model is quite positive for February. Expecting a 5 week rally following this coming low.
Thanks for the clear explanation. I am curious about a couple of things, but of course please don't feel any obligation to go into detail unless you want to. First, does the "bad week" have to align with a weekly bar, or does that simply mean that you expect a period of weakness that is roughly a week in duration? Second, as price overshot the top by 50 points but you've adjusted your target by 110 points, does that mean the target is based on an ascending trendline (which isn't clear from the charts you've posted)? Thanks again & hope you don't mind the questions.
Thank you, and good questions! Please feel free anytime.
It doesn't have to align within a week, and could carry into next week, but most of the selling should occur within a 1 week period on this particular move.
I'll post an SPX chart with more detail, and can explain the levels much better.
GBTC premium coming down! Currently 13.3% premium. Numbers looking more favorable. Let's see under 10%!!
SCNovember 30, 2018 at 1:32 PM
"GBTC premium too high at 24% currently. It's a little too rich. Wait for the numbers to be more attractive. Love the trade, but need to wait for timing to develop. Bitcoin update is coming."
just to be clear (for my aging brain), uvxy is a fund that is short the vix. So if you're planning to short uvxy, that's essentially betting that the vix is going to go up, which occurs when stocks go down (usually). So if you're planning to be short uvxy Feb to March, you're expecting stocks to head south during that timeframe, right?
That's exactly what I'm saying but nothing's guaranteed but death and taxes so use your own judgment I'm just saying if I see uvxy at 75-80 I will probably short it
With all due respect, your chart on Jan 11 when SPX was at 2600 projected an imminent fall to 2450, we are now at 2665. It's clear the Fed and Trump got freaked on Dec 24 and have since jawboned the market up. Who's to say they won't continue to do that until we go back to ATHs, we're dealing with a US president who takes the daily gyrations of the stock market personally and sends some lackey out to jawbone it up on any down day. I see no evidence yet of a significant dip ahead, could be wrong but we seem to be back in BTFD territory for now. Until BPSPX rolls over and starts declining, imho we continue up.
Tuesday was a BTFD. Sold too soon. Indicators very oversold, continues up up and away. Patience is required. Train leaving the station SC or pullback soon?
Certainly stocks have had a good run, and I agree there is more upside. Not overly bearish, the market will perform quite positive later in February. A dip soon looks likely though.
Not a chance ! The US $ will be the king for some time. The Euro is poised for new lows. Capital flows from the European nations will flow to the US Prompting new highs for the markets.
From 2k9 I see this (scare) message, seems that USA has, still, the best army in the world and I'm not an USA citizen or resident of. China doesn't seem to go up, maybe a hard land before the next up.
Investing online has been a main source of income, that's why knowledge plays a very important role in humanity, you don't need to over work yourself for money.All you need is the right information, and you could build your own wealth from the comfort of your home!Binary trading is dependent on timely signals, assets or controlled strategies which when mastered increases chance of winning up to 90%-100% with trading. It’s possible to earn $10,000 to $20,000 trading weekly-monthly, just file a complaint with Mr. Carlos, I had almost given up on everything about binary trading and ever getting my lost funds back, till i met with him, with his help now i have my lost funds back to my bank account and I can now trade successfully with his profitable strategies and software!! Email: investandearnbinaryfx@gmail.com or whatsApp: +1(424)285-0682 or telegram : @IEBINARYFX
A catalyst for bitcoin is coming soon. The parent company for NYSE is about to launch their bitcoin product.
ReplyDelete"Bakkt has raised $182.5 million to build out its global digital assets platform and bitcoin futures product.
The round, which is Bakkt’s first, included 12 partners, according to a Medium post by CEO Kelly Loeffler. The crypto startup is owned by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which is best known as the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)"
"The document from ICE — the operator of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and creator of digital assets platform Bakkt — states that “[f]ollowing consultation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC], ICE Futures U.S., Inc. expects to provide an updated launch timeline in early 2019 for the trading, clearing and warehousing” of Bakkt’s Bitcoin (BTC) futurescontract.
DeleteThe document reiterated that previously the firm had been targeting Jan. 24, 2019 as a launch date, but that the date “will be amended pursuant to the CFTC’s process and timeline.”"
SCJanuary 10, 2019 at 6:57 AM
ReplyDelete"Bitcoin coming down to 3,200. Chart will be posted soon showing next move."
SCDecember 21, 2018 at 7:56 AM
"Yes, I have developed a bottoming model for bitcoin. It popped but I expect settle back to retest the low 3200 next."
Bitcoin came down from 4,100 as expected. The chart says it could test 3,200 to 3,300. It did test 3,400 on the weekend. So it's getting close...
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile the selloff in SPX initiated yesterday. More selling to come...
ReplyDeleteHi SC, are you still looking for the same scenario (a roughly one week decline to ~2450)? The top came a little higher and later than originally forecast, and as I'm not familiar with your methods I'm curious to know if this has any impact. Thanks!
DeleteYes, it does have an impact. The model is set up for weekly bars. The benefit to that is it eliminates much of the noise we see on a daily basis. The model suggested that SPX would have a "bad" week. We are seeing that, but unfortunately SPX did manage to rally for 1 extra week and the starting price was shifted higher as a result.
DeleteThe price target needs to be adjusted. Around 2,560 is more appropriate.
As well the model is quite positive for February. Expecting a 5 week rally following this coming low.
Thanks for the clear explanation. I am curious about a couple of things, but of course please don't feel any obligation to go into detail unless you want to. First, does the "bad week" have to align with a weekly bar, or does that simply mean that you expect a period of weakness that is roughly a week in duration? Second, as price overshot the top by 50 points but you've adjusted your target by 110 points, does that mean the target is based on an ascending trendline (which isn't clear from the charts you've posted)? Thanks again & hope you don't mind the questions.
DeleteThank you, and good questions! Please feel free anytime.
DeleteIt doesn't have to align within a week, and could carry into next week, but most of the selling should occur within a 1 week period on this particular move.
I'll post an SPX chart with more detail, and can explain the levels much better.
UVXY higher high today foretelling selling pressure ahead for SPX. UVXY heading for $70 to $75.
ReplyDeleteProbably going to go to 90
ReplyDeleteim looking for 2500 by end of the month
ReplyDeleteExpect selling pressure later today and tomorrow for SPX.
ReplyDeletei agree
ReplyDeleteGBTC premium coming down! Currently 13.3% premium. Numbers looking more favorable. Let's see under 10%!!
ReplyDeleteSCNovember 30, 2018 at 1:32 PM
"GBTC premium too high at 24% currently. It's a little too rich. Wait for the numbers to be more attractive. Love the trade, but need to wait for timing to develop. Bitcoin update is coming."
i believe the best trade is gonna be the short of uvxy mid feb to march possible 75 80 to 42 what do you think sc
ReplyDeleteYes, I do agree.
Deletejust to be clear (for my aging brain), uvxy is a fund that is short the vix. So if you're planning to short uvxy, that's essentially betting that the vix is going to go up, which occurs when stocks go down (usually). So if you're planning to be short uvxy Feb to March, you're expecting stocks to head south during that timeframe, right?
DeleteThanks in advance.
That's exactly what I'm saying but nothing's guaranteed but death and taxes so use your own judgment I'm just saying if I see uvxy at 75-80 I will probably short it
DeleteUVXY is based on VIX futures. To short UVXY would be profitable on a decline in VIX futures usually with rising stock prices.
Deletelet me know when you wanna take the plunge! i will take plunge with ya
ReplyDeleteNot much going on at the moment with SPX continuing to struggle, and bitcoin in a tight range.
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect, your chart on Jan 11 when SPX was at 2600 projected an imminent fall to 2450, we are now at 2665. It's clear the Fed and Trump got freaked on Dec 24 and have since jawboned the market up. Who's to say they won't continue to do that until we go back to ATHs, we're dealing with a US president who takes the daily gyrations of the stock market personally and sends some lackey out to jawbone it up on any down day.
ReplyDeleteI see no evidence yet of a significant dip ahead, could be wrong but we seem to be back in BTFD territory for now. Until BPSPX rolls over and starts declining, imho we continue up.
Tuesday was a BTFD. Sold too soon. Indicators very oversold, continues up up and away. Patience is required. Train leaving the station SC or pullback soon?
DeleteCertainly stocks have had a good run, and I agree there is more upside. Not overly bearish, the market will perform quite positive later in February. A dip soon looks likely though.
Deletethe end of us dollar as the world reserve currency.
ReplyDeleteNot a chance ! The US $ will be the king for some time. The Euro is poised for new lows. Capital flows from the European nations will flow to the US Prompting new highs for the markets.
DeleteFrom 2k9 I see this (scare) message, seems that USA has, still, the best army in the world and I'm not an USA citizen or resident of. China doesn't seem to go up, maybe a hard land before the next up.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDeleteInvesting online has been a main source of income, that's why knowledge plays a very important role in humanity, you don't need to over work yourself for money.All you need is the right information, and you could build your own wealth from the comfort of your home!Binary trading is dependent on timely signals, assets or controlled strategies which when mastered increases chance of winning up to 90%-100% with trading. It’s possible to earn $10,000 to $20,000 trading weekly-monthly, just file a complaint with Mr. Carlos, I had almost given up on everything about binary trading and ever getting my lost funds back, till i met with him, with his help now i have my lost funds back to my bank account and I can now trade successfully with his profitable strategies and software!! Email: investandearnbinaryfx@gmail.com or whatsApp: +1(424)285-0682 or telegram : @IEBINARYFX
ReplyDelete