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Monday, December 3, 2018

SPX - Measured Move Target

SPX has risen to test resistance as anticipated.  Consolidation or minor dip at this level is to be expected.

The meltup is likely to continue soon.  A measured move target is shown, with heavy resistance in red.

30min Chart

74 comments:

  1. It's good in my opinion. Let's see if market close gap in 1 or 2 days before run up..
    Many thanks SC

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  2. Gap filling. Typical price action for SPX with this chart configuration. VIX doing nothing which confirms meltup continues soon.

    Markets closed tomorrow.

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  3. Let's see. So far it has played out exactly as shown on the previous SPX chart. Line in the sand 2,700.

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  4. Sc if you are right 2700 is a entry point.

    Very hard market

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    Replies
    1. SPX came right down to the bottom of the channel 2,620. It's holding.

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  5. the bond market vigilantes didn't like your call so they tortured the 10 yr shorts......and a bunch of banks were in that crowd....

    Thursdays auctions are very important.....rates are way to low here and will need to come up to bring in buyers....

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  6. this is just like oct 24 we should have big rally on thursday
    average in just my opinion make your own decision

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  7. sc 2700 support hold. i try to buy with small stop loss. are you always with 2840 target in your mind?
    many thanks

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  8. this market looks like trouble any big popup i will dump

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  9. The two-year Bond is paying more money than the 5-year Bond that's what spooked the market I hope the one year bond doesn't pay more than the 10-year bond that's going to be a big problem if that happens

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  10. Rocky road, but this selloff hardly put a dent in the SPX weekly chart which is still configured to turn up and soon. A turn up in the weekly and the market rallies for more than a month.

    The target remains valid although realistically because of this chop, which seems likely to continue in December, I doubt we can see it reached until January. Disappointing!

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    Replies
    1. SC - is the SPX target 2850 or 2975 for January? Thanks!

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    2. Just reviewing. I think higher than 2,850 though.

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  11. es daily chart shows a tripple top and a death cross

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  12. It looks like we're going to go all the way down to 260 on the spider not sure though we could get a short cover rally possibly 2695 we'll see proceed with caution

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  13. Wow! Wave (a) of A of C went down 189 points! Sideways until Monday expected in a wxy bear flag pattern. Could go as low as 2609 tomorrow and then bounce into Monday above today's bounce.

    A big move down at least as large as this last one coming into Wednesday next week. This whole thing could go down into Dec 30 to match 9 months from Apr 2, 2018, which was the X wave low (and the last wave down Oct 3-29)

    Dec 30 could be the low we are looking for, not Jan 24. We could conceivably go down into the upper 2300's.

    Good Trading!

    Brad Gudgeon
    Editor
    BluStar Market Timer
    This man was the only one that was right he proved me wrong while he was buying uvxy and tvix I got to give a big props on this one let's see if he's right in January

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  14. SPX came down touched the double support. Result 70 point spike up.

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  15. SPX is so strong that the low has held for more than a month. It has been tested and retested. Next surprise coming to the upside.

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    Replies
    1. i have a monsta position would rattle any one
      looks to me like tripple bottom now any weakness is a buy in my opinion

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    2. I tried shorting uvxy today a big position like 5,000 shares and they wouldn't let me do at $65

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    3. They may have used up all short allocations or they just won't allow due to the volatility. It's annoying for sure!

      There's a better spot to short volatility coming later anyway in my view.

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    4. Scottrade would have let me short it TD Ameritrade has it hard to borrow program and they want to charge you ridiculous fee it's ridiculous

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  16. SPX closed near the blue resistance 2,700. May see SPX retrace to 2,650 or so before finally breaking out through 2,800. 2,850 looks conservative on this next move, higher I think. Reviewing targets.

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    Replies
    1. Maybe I should take the offer out and buy some more

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  17. Perfect! SPX touched the blue resistance and retracing as anticipated!

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  18. I have confidence that the meltup is coming. It appears to be already underway...

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  19. The markets going down again it just seems to be so weak

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  20. Even though I made a shitload of money

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  21. Nailed it!

    SCDecember 6, 2018 at 1:50 PM

    "SPX closed near the blue resistance 2,700. May see SPX retrace to 2,650 or so before finally breaking out through 2,800. 2,850 looks conservative on this next move, higher I think. Reviewing targets."

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  22. If you are right we're going to have a great Christmas

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  23. Oil leading up. Recovered all losses from yesterday and higher today.

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  24. I believe we're going to pop on Monday possibly 2730 area

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  25. This Bitcoin getting crushed I don't trust this thing

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  26. Notice how calm everything is today. The panic is over. We have seen a normal 10% correction by definition. It's over!

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  27. Replies
    1. Last week was a bear trap. Notice what happened. The week opened on the high and closed on the low. Friday the same. Opening on the high and closing on the low.

      It's a illusion to make the market appear weak when actually it is strong!

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    2. I do pay attention 2 Elliott wave however that's not a hundred percent of what I use the market to me looks like it's going to go down and then up and then next year down hard this guy Oscar Carboni is scare the crap out of me lol
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRAljeChWDs

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    3. The news that's coming out is atrocious I'm just wondering if brexit could be like Lehman Brothers hopefully we're not missing something Market came down 1500 points in 3 days wondering if we're going to test the October lows 25 and change if not now it's going to be next year

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  28. I know. I don't think anything major will happen this week or anytime soon for that matter. Likely quiet. Tight range stuck in the 2,620 to 2,680. Sideways.

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  29. I'm wondering if we get that Santa Claus rally I hope we do

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  30. that should be a short term bottom we will see

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  31. Looking for a 2700 real soon possibly by tomorrow or Wednesday

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  32. SC - are you buying bitcoin or any other coins here? Some of the other coins are super cheap now, having declined 90-95% from their peaks.

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    Replies
    1. Bitcoin is interesting and important piece of the puzzle. I would like to see more price action to confirm the bottoming pattern. I think this process may take a while and there should be a capitulation eventually.

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  33. @Rob I think that 1k8-2k6 is the spot to buy btc

    Oscar Carboni is a decent guy from what I remember from 2011, sometimes strikes other time nope

    SC was better than OC in 2011, other years dunno bcs I've stopped wacthing OC

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  34. Last chart of btc by SC
    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kpdy4cPesnc/W_GlYGWlMAI/AAAAAAAADs8/-5kBD2AIxrcWM0SJv1VO2c3VcYAKZZ7cQCLcBGAs/s1600/BitcoindailyNov182018.png

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  35. Looking good guys. Let's see if we can clear 2,700 resistance to the next resistance at 2,760.

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    Replies
    1. if we stay abobe 2670 we should see that real soon

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    2. Weekly very close to turning up which means rally for a month up into the 2,800's.

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    3. im wondering if spx gap up will be filled first

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    4. we should see a bottom in a few days and then a nice santa rally just my opinion

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  36. looks like bottom on the 14th then santa rally

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  37. well a break above 2678 will mean 2711

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  38. i believe today is a shortterm bottom just my opinion

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