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Saturday, July 1, 2017

XIV - Orange Channel Support Breached - Large Plunge Coming!

XIV breached orange channel support last week.  The decline initiated with a flashcrash as XIV exhausted near long term resistance.  The drop was signaled in advance by weakening performance. 

A large plunge to test the lower fork line, and turquoise channel support is likely to occur next as shown on the chart below.

Daily Chart
 

42 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Another chart will be posted shortly with timing and a detailed map of the decline. It'll show where to expect the drops and bounces on the way down.

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    2. Thanks that will be really nice

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  2. Sc uvxy to hit 8 or 9. Will spx go to 2450 again

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    1. This week being a holiday week is quiet. SPX and XIV both forming highs this week. Nice timing to short.

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  3. Hi SC,
    What's ur opinion about cryptocurrencies? Seems that they are in a big bull run.
    To me seems that Bitcoin is in an triangle before going up.
    Thanks!

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    1. I could see bitcoin coming down a little more this summer, but I think up for 6 to 8 months looks possible.

      I don't see them as being a safe haven at all, and doubt there is any real future for them.

      It's the opposite. Excess liquidity is flowing to them but that'll come to an end next year.

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  4. Sc hope all is well is your target still 13 your thoughts and thanks

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    1. Yes, UVXY $13. XIV $70 to $72.

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    2. Sc, i thought your target for XIV was $60?

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    3. It is still the target. Just expect a bounce around $70.

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    4. we are running out of time for a pop in UVXY. VIX futures will roll over again next week. If we don't get a pop in the VIX this week, UVXY is likely to see 8.40 or lower next week.

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    5. thats why you have to trade it bought @9.75 sold at 10.47 today and i will buy back tomorrow 2 weeks the move in my opinion will be massive in uvxy

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    6. Exactly Louis. In, then out.

      If I can get a .50 to .75 run each tradee and do that a few times a month that's all I am looking for.

      It's nice to have the massive moves but in the meantime it all adds up.

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    7. Louis, did you reenter uvxy?

      What is your definition of "massive" move in uvxy? $16-18?

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    8. 9.20 after split im looking for 52

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  5. Money is rushing into ‘the most dangerous trade in the world’
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/07/money-is-rushing-into-the-most-dangerous-trade-in-the-world.html

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  6. Probably new S&P highs this week..and more rally. 2400 holds firmly.

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  7. looks like down hard tommorow spx we will see

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  8. Well I think that may have been the pop in UVXY you were looking for. Hope everyone got out.

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  9. The 50 dma for SPX looks like it is about to bust. SPX has been trending down for almost a month now. The selloff is just in the beginning stage.

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  10. UVXY 8.76, then much lower. Sideways flag correction totally complete in S&P.

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    1. thats possibly however after split it will probally go to 52

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  11. sc wonder if it would be smart to go into vxx instead of uvxy
    your thoughts split concerns last set up like this we saw 10 percent volatility erosion

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  12. XIV $100 or $60? Which comes first?

    Sc, any updates on gold?

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  13. Replies
    1. Louis you have an exit target for VXX?

      Still waiting for my $100 XIV but very very close....

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    2. i believe july 24 to 26 that uvxy will be 12 or after split
      48 maybe higher not sure and and vxx to move up with it maybe 15 or so we will see im not sure if next drop will break 2400

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  14. SPX:VIX RATIO = 255

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&st=1989-03-16&en=%28today%29&id=p56596247166&a=296187083&r=1363776061098&cmd=print

    Ideal time to short XIV...

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