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Monday, February 22, 2016

XIV - Target Reached!

XIV has reached it's minimum target today with an exact hit on both price and time. 

Major resistance is overhead at the blue resistance.

A dip looks likely next.  SPX has reached the 50 dma resistance, and VIX has reached the 200 dma support.

15min Chart
















Before:

30min Chart














41 comments:

  1. Good update SC, markets are clearly struggling at resistance, too far, too fast, lets see how it plays out in the next few days. Good luck!

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  2. Sc, your xiv chart is making lower high to 18.40, so how are you expecting spy to make higher high to 1980

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    Replies
    1. In my view a significant dip is likely to occur next from this level. Both XIV and SPX could make higher highs after that. So possibly my targets are conservative, but would rather be conservative. We'll soon see...

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  3. Time to be cautious...

    SCFebruary 9, 2016 at 7:04 AM

    "SPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!"

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  4. Replies
    1. Nice trade! pullback over?

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    2. The pullback may not be over, but I am still expecting a higher high.

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  5. I'll wait for another entry.

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    Replies
    1. What price would you have interest to reenter?

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    2. One reason I decided to exit there was my fork support for UVXY is in the $33's. UVXY may still rise short term, but I think we'll see that level tested.

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  6. Wondering if XIV is good for a short term pop back up to highs?

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  7. SC, great call on this quick flip :-)
    keep these up and will be all happy campers :-)

    Again, thanks for sharing and investing your time and keeping us posted...

    PS - you are correct on the wild rides that's for sure :-)

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! SPX tried to gap up one too many times yesterday, and so it was destined to flop. Just a minor move, but high probability.

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  8. SC, are you suggesting that the SPX rally all the way to 1975 is underway either today or tomorrow by the latest.?

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    Replies
    1. Tough to say whether this dip today will extend deeper or just a shallow dip. 1975 still a target.

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    2. 1975 by this Friday turn date?

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    3. We do have the turn date coming, and I do anticipate another spike up to the target area.

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  9. SC, are you looking for a higher low on SPX daily, 2/19 low was 1902.17??

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    Replies
    1. This pullback is basically complete.

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  10. I was looking for a drop of 50 points, and we got it!

    SCFebruary 19, 2016 at 9:49 AM

    "A high is due, and I do expect a drop of 50 points for SPX, then a higher high to the 1975 target."

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  11. Price is low enough, bullish again.

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  12. Replies
    1. exit target for this entry?

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    2. $20's. XIV dos have the blue resistance in the $21's and even that is possible.

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    3. SC, when do you think this target can be reached, Friday or into next week? thx

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    4. Yes, possibly Friday at the earliest, or next week.

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  13. XIV testing the red line again. There is the gap $17.40 to $17.70 which may or may not fill.

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  14. SC Do you think Oil is heading up with SPX
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Yes, oil should form a high around $36 to $37, and after that is the most interesting...

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  15. SC, Is there any reason you don't open any position in SVXY? I was just curious..

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    Replies
    1. Both SVXY and XIV are equivalent in performance. I do use either one. Just to be consistent I show the charts for XIV.

      I do avoid TVIX which had major problems several years ago when they abruptly suspended creation units. Since then it seems to be fine again, but I still avoid.

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  16. Nice call again SC, you're on a roll :)

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    Replies
    1. Haha!

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAhIg5Dy3uA

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  17. Interesting article on Zerohedge considering your March forecast. Volatility will rule!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-24/wedbush-goes-there-beware-panics-and-crashes-march

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    Replies
    1. Click chasing zerobrain - the same bullshit like CNBS, but for the bears doom and gloom.
      Trading value zero:)))
      March is very often a turning point and after a correction for 9 months the question is turning point low or a high? Definitely a low - cycles,EW, market breadth everything points to a low.

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  18. SC, we get the breakout today? Where do you see we close today?

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    Replies
    1. Yesterday surged up aggressively. Some consolidation is in order first, but yes, market is getting ready to pop.

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